Bill Pollian- Metrics on Winning | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Bill Pollian- Metrics on Winning

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Pollian said last week that there are four metrics to look for, and Seattle was better in all four. He expended today on M&M. I took a look at how we did last year.

1. Points allowed- We ranked #8

2. Points scored in the red zone- Sorry but I cannot find how we did for the year as he said points scored and not percentages or TD's. Any help would be appreciated. As I recall, we were doing pretty well here.

3. Yards per pass attempt- He specified on and D both here. On O, we were #22 with a 6.7 avg. On D, #12 with a 6.9 avg.

4. Turnover margin- We were #18 with a -2.

He said that if you add in rushing attempts, not yards, teams win 90% of the time. We were #29 with 21.8 per game. Hard to argue with the guy and 90%.

So how do we upgrade our weak links here.
 
I'm thinking that Wallace actually connecting with RT takes care of the YPA on O, existing players, who have caused TO's a year ago, doing the same, cut down some on fumbles and picks, and having an OL who can run block worth a damn may do it.
 
My biggest gripe with Philbin is his disdain for running the ball. I think if the Dolphins were committed to run, they would be good at it. They don't have to go to Wanny ball proportions but a few more per game would help everyone on offense.
 
rent this space said:
My biggest gripe with Philbin is his disdain for running the ball. I think if the Dolphins were committed to run, they would be good at it. They don't have to go to Wanny ball proportions but a few more per game would help everyone on offense.
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Philbin didn't call the plays but we only ran the ball 349 times this season compared to last season when we ran 440 times. I think the O-line had more to do with the play calling than people making assumptions that Philbin doesn't want to run the ball. And in the two seasons Philbin has been here Ireland made little effort to get OL that fit the scheme.
 
1 more metric that equates to winning: team reflects the personality of its HC. not sure we've got a pulse
 
johngarry said:
1 more metric that equates to winning: team reflects the personality of its HC. not sure we've got a pulse
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Yes because Tony Dungy was so animated and yet he won a super bowl. You guys are grasping at straws.
 
datruth55 said:
Philbin didn't call the plays but we only ran the ball 349 times this season compared to last season when we ran 440 times. I think the O-line had more to do with the play calling than people making assumptions that Philbin doesn't want to run the ball. And in the two seasons Philbin has been here Ireland made little effort to get OL that fit the scheme.
Click to expand...

I agree! We ran 349 times and the league leader ran the ball 546 times. This is a HUGE difference. It's hard to call running plays when you gain no yardage on them. It was bad as you know. Also, the passing game suffered because we didn't have the time in the pocket to allow downfield patterns to develop. The consequence of this is all those plays we saw where receivers had receptions on 3rd down but fell a yard or two short of the sticks.

Its about the O-line. Fix it, the run game improves, the passing game improves and everyone looks better.....

---------- Post added at 01:20 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:19 PM ----------
datruth55 said:
Yes because Tony Dungy was so animated and yet he won a super bowl. You guys are grasping at straws.
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Amen. I keep thinking of Tom Landry standing on the sidelines with his arms crossed....not saying a word.
 
Ok. Joe is not emotional and neither are some successful coaches. It does not change the fact with a chance to make the playoffs the last two weeks of the season his team laid two giant eggs. Terrible coaching job by Joe. He cannot close.
 
Southbeach 2 said:
Pollian said last week that there are four metrics to look for, and Seattle was better in all four. He expended today on M&M. I took a look at how we did last year.

1. Points allowed- We ranked #8

2. Points scored in the red zone- Sorry but I cannot find how we did for the year as he said points scored and not percentages or TD's. Any help would be appreciated. As I recall, we were doing pretty well here.

3. Yards per pass attempt- He specified on and D both here. On O, we were #22 with a 6.7 avg. On D, #12 with a 6.9 avg.

4. Turnover margin- We were #18 with a -2.

He said that if you add in rushing attempts, not yards, teams win 90% of the time. We were #29 with 21.8 per game. Hard to argue with the guy and 90%.

So how do we upgrade our weak links here.
Click to expand...
The first two metrics essentially correspond to points scored and points allowed, because there is no evidence that scoring in the red zone is any more important than scoring, period. Obviously points scored and points allowed are strongly correlated with winning.

Turnover margin is largely random, rather than reflecting a stable characteristic of teams, and rushing attempts covary with big leads at the ends of games, obviously again reflecting points scored and points allowed.

That leaves YPA, which tends to reflect a stable trait at the all-important quarterback position, and where the Dolphins were in the 28th percentile in the league on offense in 2013, despite being near the top of the league in that area defensively.

Is it hard to see where we need help?

Polian needs to understand the concepts of collinearity and conditional distributions.
 
Gravity said:
The first two metrics essentially correspond to points scored and points allowed, because there is no evidence that scoring in the red zone is any more important than scoring, period. Obviously points scored and points allowed are strongly correlated with winning.

Turnover margin is largely random, rather than reflecting a stable characteristic of teams, and rushing attempts covary with big leads at the ends of games, obviously again reflecting points scored and points allowed.

That leaves YPA, which tends to reflect a stable trait at the all-important quarterback position, and where the Dolphins were in the 28th percentile in the league on offense in 2013, despite being near the top of the league in that area defensively.

Is it hard to see where we need help?

Polian needs to understand the concepts of collinearity and conditional distributions.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I guess you're gonna have to teach Pollian on what's important, and argue with him, NOT ME, on the 90% deal and the other stuff. lol
 
So basically....have balance, score more points and give up less, and get more turnover while protecting the ball...
 
Zounds said:
:bs:
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I suppose you know the strengths of the correlations turnovers have with themselves over time?

Oh wait, I forgot: you're one of the many people here who routinely try to refute other people's points of view without offering anything objective or of substance in doing so. ;)
 
datruth55 said:
Philbin didn't call the plays but we only ran the ball 349 times this season compared to last season when we ran 440 times. I think the O-line had more to do with the play calling than people making assumptions that Philbin doesn't want to run the ball. And in the two seasons Philbin has been here Ireland made little effort to get OL that fit the scheme.
Click to expand...
I'm just going by what Sherman said:
"...On abandoning the run, Sherman chuckled and said “I think Coach Philbin is certainly of that mindset, I haven’t quite reached that mindset yet. I have to be able to hand the ball off once in a while to eat up some clock time and to say ‘hey we’re still going to run the football.’ But I think Coach Philbin could possibly convince me otherwise...”

- http://blogs.palmbeachpost.com/thed...man-defend-mike-wallace/#sthash.FvrgXKDQ.dpuf
 
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