Bill Pollian- Metrics on Winning

[Zounds]

I suppose you know the strengths of the correlations turnovers have with themselves over time?

Oh wait, I forgot: you're one of the many people here who routinely try to refute other people's points of view without offering anything objective or of substance in doing so.

Im still waiting for your "objective evidence", because the stats you reference - like "catchable balls" and "pressures" - are subjective evidence. Somebody has to watch tape and use judgement to determine those numbers. I even asked to you dump your data table in an excel file or minitab file and you refused. For some reason you are unwilling to share with anyone how you came to some outrageous conclusions. You just dump a bunch of output numbers and wont show your work.

And turnovers are not random. Bad QB's turn over the ball, and good defenses take the ball away.

 

[Canadianfishfan]

My biggest gripe with Philbin is his disdain for running the ball. I think if the Dolphins were committed to run, they would be good at it. They don't have to go to Wanny ball proportions but a few more per game would help everyone on offense.

In fairness though, he was brought in to appease the fans desire for a more aerial attack.

 

[So Be]

Nobody's arguing with you.

Overstated by me for effect. Pollian is a long time successful GM with the untold resources of ESPN to confirm what he says. I have to believe him. Nothing personal.

 

[So Be]

So basically....have balance, score more points and give up less, and get more turnover while protecting the ball...

The rushing attempts were added by him to his top 4 to get to the 90% result. I have to think that the top 4 are the most important for year long results in a continuous winning team, and the run attempts a drop below.

 

[So Be]

I like the combo breakdown as opposed to debating individual stats, and it makes perfect sense. Scoring D speaks for it self.

Scoring points in the red zone is better than TD % etc as it includes how many times you got there.

YPA including YPA against is much better than one sided.

TO's also speak for themselves.

Rushing attempts, to a bit f a lessor degree, keeps the opposing O off the field during the game, and likely means you're winning at the end.

 

[datruth55]

I'm just going by what Sherman said:
"...On abandoning the run, Sherman chuckled and said “I think Coach Philbin is certainly of that mindset, I haven’t quite reached that mindset yet. I have to be able to hand the ball off once in a while to eat up some clock time and to say ‘hey we’re still going to run the football.’ But I think Coach Philbin could possibly convince me otherwise...”

- http://blogs.palmbeachpost.com/thed...man-defend-mike-wallace/#sthash.FvrgXKDQ.dpuf

And Martin claims he was bullied. Just because Sherman said it doesn't mean it came from Philbin. Look at Sherman's history...he was pass happy as the head coach of the Packers, he was pass happy in Houston and there were many games at Texas A&M where the team barely ran the ball.

 

[Shouright]

Scoring points in the red zone is better than TD % etc as it includes how many times you got there.

...which is a function of YPA (passing efficiency) in moving the team down the field reliably.

 

[So Be]

...which is a function of YPA (passing efficiency) in moving the team down the field reliably.

In all due respect, and I do enjoy reading many of your posts. Do you, in your wildest dreams, believe that you know more than Pollian and the ESPN research teams?

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Sounds familiar. Not complicated. Run the ball often, pass the ball well.

Happy adjusters deny and lose.

I would dispute that rushing attempts correspond to late leads. Chart games and it doesn't play out that way, not nearly to degree of conventional wisdom. Rushing attempts pile up when the team throwing the ball well and stopping the pass well manage to control possession. If they are smart they mix a reasonable number of rushes, regardless of how successful they are. Miami in the Marino years refused to run the ball even when we were controlling matters. That leads to frailty and vulnerability against better foes, who delight in brutally exposing you.

Turnovers are indeed quite random. For betting purposes I don't have one category in all of my hundreds of Excel spreadsheets that deals specifically with turnovers. But like index funds sometimes you have things you don't know are there. I'm sure I have some adjusted numbers that incorporate turnovers.

 

[So Be]

Sounds familiar. Not complicated. Run the ball often, pass the ball well.

Happy adjusters deny and lose.

I would dispute that rushing attempts correspond to late leads. Chart games and it doesn't play out that way, not nearly to degree of conventional wisdom. Rushing attempts pile up when the team throwing the ball well and stopping the pass well manage to control possession. If they are smart they mix a reasonable number of rushes, regardless of how successful they are. Miami in the Marino years refused to run the ball even when we were controlling matters. That leads to frailty and vulnerability against better foes, who delight in brutally exposing you.

Turnovers are indeed quite random. For betting purposes I don't have one category in all of my hundreds of Excel spreadsheets that deals specifically with turnovers. But like index funds sometimes you have things you don't know are there. I'm sure I have some adjusted numbers that incorporate turnovers.

Agree on rushing attempts but, do you agree with Pollian's top 4 metric?

How did you make out yesterday? I had a VG night.

 

[iwastherein1972]

Teams can win Super Bowls with some of those offensive and defensive stats.

Teams will not sniff the playoffs with those rushing stats.

Find a running game with a new back or 2 and we are a potential playoff team.

 

[So Be]

Teams can win Super Bowls with some of those offensive and defensive stats.

Teams will not sniff the playoffs with those rushing stats.

Find a running game with a new back or 2 and we are a potential playoff team.

Do the Saints a few years ago count?

 

[utahphinsfan]

Rushing attempts, to a bit f a lessor degree, keeps the opposing O off the field during the game, and likely means you're winning at the end.

Only if there is correlation with time of possesion, if Mercury is the 2nd house, & what the back judge had for brunch 2 days before leaving for the game.

 

[Shouright]

In all due respect, and I do enjoy reading many of your posts. Do you, in your wildest dreams, believe that you know more than Pollian and the ESPN research teams?

I'd have to know exactly what sort of "research team" is involved here to answer the question. Do I think Bill Polian alone has an understanding of collinearity and conditional probability? Probably not.

 

[WVDolphan]

We did well in all of those areas aside from the ones involved with the play of the QB and rushing attempts.