In a 16 game season, I don't know if it's ever "too early." I always laugh when people brush off early season losses. This isn't college football and it certainly isn't the MLB, NHL, or NBA. Those losses matter, especially road losses against teams we should beat and home games against division rivals. You can't pass up an opportunity to steal a road win in this league. 2-1 teams have just over 50% chance of making the playoffs. 1-2 teams have closer to a 25% chance. I'm betting it's even less (for Bills, Jets, and Phins) in a division like ours.
1-3 drops the chances down to about 14%, at best, for what it's worth.