So it’s over. My presents unwrapped, sitting under the draft tree. Awaiting the batteries that are mini camp and training camp. That feeling of ‘oh……364 days to go till we do it all again’. All that tape to watch, all those players to rank. Is it worth it?
Of course it is.
So what about the 2006 selection meeting? We went in looking for help at QB, WR, OG, DT, SLB, CB and safety. Did we achieve that? Well let’s look at the picks.
1. Jason Allen – FS/CB – Tennessee
2. Daunte Culpepper – QB – Central Florida
3. Derek Hagan – WR – Arizona State
4. Joe Toledo – OT – Washington
5. Manny Wright – DT – USC
6. Cleo Lemon – QB – Arkansas State
7. Fred Evans – DT – Texas State
7. Rodrique Wright – DT – Texas
8. Gboolhan Aromashodu – WR – Auburn
Well we filled some holes for sure. We added athleticism, we added guys with upside, we added guys who can come in and make the roster. And we added guys with question marks – raw guys (Evans, Toledo and Aromashodu) and injury risk guys (Allen, Wright and Culpepper). Nick also stayed true to players he knew – he recruited Aromashodu and Allen and talked to Wright at the Nike Combine in the summer before he committed to Texas and then tried recruiting him despite Rodrique narrowing to Texas, A+M and Oklahoma.)
What we also found out was that for all the smoke, we were pretty sure on 4 of the players that he took that there was a very strong interest – Allen of course we knew had been recruited by Nick because of the two home visits and we knew that Jason had been to Davie and that Nick and Coach Capers flew to Knoxville to work him out. We know that Dan Quinn went to Texas State and worked Fred Evans out personally and that there was a strong interest in Devin Aromashodu and Rod Wright and that both took at least one visit to Davie, with Rodrique working out for us. Plus the three players that they considered moving up for – FSU pairing Ernie Sims and Kamerion Wimbley and Oregon’s Haloti Ngata – were all players who fit the Saban mould and were all guys that we’d either had in to Davie or been to see specifically at campus workouts – in the case of Wimbley and Sims, just 3 days before the draft, which in hindsight probably helped with the deal for Sam McGrew as a FA.
As for adding Culpepper, Wright and Lemon to the equation, you absolutely have to. You give up picks for players in a certain draft, you need to throw the veterans into the mix when you evaluate the end game. With the Culpepper pick, the Vikings drafted New Mexico OC Ryan Cook, a two round reach. Culpepper or Cook? Hmmm. Cleo Lemon or Kurt Smith the Virginia kicker?
So what about the picks themselves?
Well we know all about Allen. The most athletic defensive back from the past two seasons, with the astonishingly quick short shuttle, the 4.39 forty, etc. A guy who declared a year ago and then went back to school for his senior season only to see his season, nee his career almost end when Leonard Pope rolled up on him and he dislocated his hip. There were rumours that he’d failed medicals from 2 national sources – Fox and PFW – but Miami has a hugely strict medical process (remember that Drew Brees failed our medical but passed New Orleans’, which I’m told is pretty tough as well) and in the last few days, a lot of talk was about just where he’d end up. A legitimate top 8-12 pick if healthy, Allen adds versatility to the secondary. I think he’ll start at corner, but I believe he’ll end up at free safety. A very cerebral player, despite the poor Wonderlich score, Jason completed his degree as a junior and if he stays healthy – the shoulder injuries bear watching as well – then you build a secondary around this kid. He’s smart, he has great technique, he is probably the best cover man in the draft in terms of staying deep with his receivers, he flips his hips well, he’s smooth, he plants and drives well and he’s a leader. He’s rangy and he can tackle well. You’d like to see him make more picks, but the guy can flat out play football. We turned down the trade down – Pittsburgh was one such team who enquired and so were the Jags – because we wanted Allen. In a draft where we had just 6 picks (3 of which coming in the 7th), that has to tell you something about how we felt about him.
Initially I was so-so on Hagan. My mind was set to a few other players I had rated higher on my board. But after sleeping on it, I got up and watched some offensive plays of his and came away much brighter. Arguably the greatest receiver in PAC 10 history, he’s the all time conference leader with 258 catches and 2nd in conference history with 3,939 yards. Eighteen one hundred yard + receiving games in his career and a healthy 15.3 career per catch average is testament to his skills. So whilst he wasn’t recruited by Saban – in fact he was barely recruited at all – and in four seasons he only played ONE game against SEC competition (ironically it was LSU in his penultimate game as a Sun Devil), he clearly fits the bill as a player from a major college who has been productive over a long period of time, something very much in evidence from last year’s selections. Derek is someone that Mel Kiper had as his number one ranked senior receiver for three straight seasons and when you watch him you see why. He’s big, he uses his body very well as a shield, he’ll go up and get the ball at the highest point and he is a very strong blocker. What he doesn’t do well is be consistent in his effort as a blocker and finish blocks. But that’s easily coached. His route precision could get better also. Derek is the sort of player that does the little things well – he works back for the ball when the QB is moving, he always wants the ball, he’s a strong personality and he understands coverage. And he’s never missed a game through injury, playing on despite knocks – ‘I don’t get catches standing on the sideline feeling sorry for myself’. His conditioning routine is also something to behold. Kiper calls him one of the hardest working receivers he’s ever graded and his off-season workout regimen is something akin to that of Jerry Rice’s. Plus he watches a tonne of film on defensive backs as well as on other receivers to pick up tips.
What impresses when you watch the games is that he also is very quick off the line and very quickly into and out of his breaks although he will occasionally round off routes or get sloppy. He had the quickest 10 yard split of any wide receiver at the Combine (1.52) and a 4.46 forty time, dispelling any fears of elite speed. In fact only Georgia cornerback Tim Jennings, our own Jason Allen, and running backs Andre Hall, Joseph Addai and Jerrious Norwood had a quicker 10 yard splits than Hagan amongst the entire 330+ players that worked out. (Jonathan Joseph and Gerrick McPherson tied the 1.52). What hurt him were two bad days in Mobile, the Tuesday and the Wednesday where he dropped a lot of balls and then a bad game, but it goes against the grain for what is usually a pretty sure handed player. We’re not talking James McKnight here. He’s also something of a deep threat – I remember seeing the 38-27 loss to Stanford in 2003 and he caught 4-138 including 2 long touchdowns and as a Sun Devil he’s had catches of 51, 80, 67, 49, 50, 47, 79, 45, 47, 46, 59 and 45 yards. So he’s not just a short dink and dunk character. I see him as the long term replacement for Marty Booker as the number two, but someone who will get a lot of balls thrown his way as a rookie. An off field concern – arrested for a fight with his girlfriend and subsequently causing damage to her car – was a one off. A solid top 45 pick whom we got in the early 80’s because of 2 bad days in Alabama. Reminds me a little of Plaxico Burress.
I have to say that I was a little disappointed with the pick of Joe Toledo. And unlike the Hagan pick, some sleep hasn’t changed that. Perhaps I’ve become accustomed to us bringing in some real quality in the 4th round in recent years. Or maybe I believe that when you have 3 picks in what I refer to as the ‘killer rounds’, the first, second, third and fourth, that you should be looking for instant help rather than long term projects. And of course the fact that as the roster stands now, we have Lonnie Shelton, Damian McIntosh, Mike Pearson, Vernon Carey, Anthony Alabi and Tony Pape as tackles, with Jeno James another who played tackle at Auburn. What this pick says to me is that the Alabi project hasn’t worked out. You simply don’t carry two project tackles on your roster. I understand that Hudson Houck deserves a ‘wreck’ to work on, to try and update and caress and turn into something nice, but when a Ray Edwards, a Barry Cofield, a Leon Washington, a Parys Haralson, a Pat Watkins, etc. were still on the board then I have to question it. I know that Dallas were primed to bring Toledo in and that he’s considered a sleeper pick, but I question when he’s going to hit the field?
A receiver and defensive end in high school, Joe came to the Huskies as a tight end, before being shifted to LT in 2005. Recruited as a lineman as well as a tight end, there were whispers of moving him to tackle from the get-go, but as he turned down USC’s offer of playing tackle to play TE, in the end, the move was probably inevitable. With that in mind, I fully expected him to test well athletically. And he did. But that athleticism must be tempered by the fact that he spent much of his time as a wide-out and then a tight end. And despite the fact that he was known more as a blocking tight-end, it would have been something of a shock if he hadn’t have turned in very good numbers at the Combine – a 5.17 forty and a 4.66 short shuttle, coming in with an impressive -.51 differential. He measured 6054 and 337 in Indy (was 332 at his Pro Day) and so he’s added a lot of weight in a short space of time, although he carries the weight well and had the frame with which to do so. He added 31lbs in the 2005 off-season and played at close to 317lbs as a senior. But he missed most of his senior campaign and he added more weight in the build up to the Combine. Ideally I think he’s best suited at around 320.
What worries me the most about Toledo are the injuries. I don’t care how fast a guy runs or what his Wonderlich is if he can’t stay on the field. Just weeks after arriving on campus in the fall of 2001, Toledo broke his foot in a practice drill and ended up redshirting the season. In 2002 he damaged the rotator cuff in his shoulder which then tore in the Bowl game, forcing him to rehabilitate for more than six months, recovering just in time to start the 2003 season but then began feeling the effects of a back injury just a few games in, missing a number of games with a bulging disc. He then made his comeback against USC only to suffer a groin injury. The two ailments combined to keep him sidelined the rest of the season and throughout the spring and even Toledo himself thought he might never play again. He came back for the 2004 season and then damaged the MCL in his knee before switching to LT. He shot up the depth chart and became the starter, only to sprain his knee in the opener and miss five games, coming back and playing 3 at RT and the last two on the left. So essentially he’s played 2 games and 2 quarters at left tackle and 3 games at right tackle. He was even injured for much of the Combine.
Amazingly I can actually claim to have seen him on the field as a left tackle. He moves well, but his technique and footwork are poor. He gets out to the second level and understands the fundamentals, despite not achieving them. He seems to think too much about what he’s supposed to be doing, which is understandable. The basic tools are there, but with 5 games and 2 quarters worth of experience on the offensive line, there is a huge task ahead. Every year Saban chucks Hudson Houck a bone. Joe Toledo is this year’s bone. I just hope it’s a bone he doesn’t break.
The first of our three seventh rounders was spent on Texas State DT Fred Evans. Big Freddie is the sort of player that I can see being a nose tackle. At 6036 and 305lbs, he looks to have the frame to add weight and get into the 325 area. As I mentioned at the top, he’s a guy that came into Davie for a workout and we also sent DL coach Dan Quinn to TSU to work him out again, so the interest was there and clear. What his pick did provide us was our first chance to see that Nick isn’t afraid of the small school prospect. And he clearly liked what he saw, especially when he stepped up a level both at the Hula Bowl and when the Bobcats played Texas A+M (where he had 6 tackles and 3 TFL). And Evans, who had to be convinced to take up football by his best friend, Notre Dame linebacker Cory Mays, was recruited by Pat Hill, so there is a direct link there to Coach Saban.
He's a former offensive tackle who was recruited by Illinois and signed there, but failed to meet his academic requirements and went to Junior College – the College of Dupage - where he played two seasons for the Chaparrals. Considering he had very little high school football experience - his main sport is water polo and his father is in the swimming Hall of Fame - he made 2nd Team All Conference and All Region. He had the chance to go back to Illinois, but instead chose to wipe the slate clean and headed to Texas State, despite being heavily recruited by Kansas, New Mexico, Temple, Youngstown State and Central Florida and dominated, registering 17.5 tackles for losses and 6.5 sacks in 2004, on his way to being named D-1AA All-American. As a senior, he didn’t train on quite as well, but faced more double teaming which affected his game on game consistency. But his numbers weren’t affected, registering 5 sacks and 18TFL. Ironically, Evans almost played OT at TSU before being shifted to the defensive side of the ball.
Apparently he's a great kid, very charismatic, focused and dedicated, he has the initial quicks to be a 3-4 end by the looks of things, but as I said, I think he could add some weight and come in at NT. He's apparently strong at the point, very athletic - I've not seen Texas State I'm afraid - and moves laterally very well. ‘Great hip flexibility’ is something I keep seeing about him. At the TS pro day he was 6036 and 305, ran a very respectable 5.12 and an excellent short shuttle of 4.65, a 35 inch vertical and a somewhat disappointing 18 lifts. Academically he’s very bright and like Hagan, he is an incredibly hard worker off the field – his head coach at Texas State said; "One of the things that differentiated him from other players was his approach to practice and games. Evans approached every day with the idea of what could he do to become better and worked hard to improve his technique".
The coaching staff and Mid-West scout Jack Glowik must have done a great job on looking at this kid and they must be very high on him to take him and not let him fall to free agency – the athletic numbers, the 35 inch vertical especially and the ability to play 3 and 5 technique and the nose, with the explosion is certainly interesting.
Our 2nd pick in the 7th round was Rodrique Wright, a guy who fell probably 200 or so selections from a year ago, where he was forecast as a mid to late 1st round pick. This represents tremendous value for where he was taken and as NFL.com’s Pat Kirwan said in the aftermath of Sunday’s final round, it was the ‘pick of the draft’. He comes from great stock. Uncle Elmo was a first round pick of the Chiefs in 1971 and Cedric Woodward of Seattle is his cousin. Heavily recruited by Nick Saban, he was a Parade All American and one the nations top recruits, choosing UT over A+M and Oklahoma. He probably had his best year as a freshman, coming in and starting 9 games and flashing huge early 1st round potential, winning Big 12 Freshman of the Year, registering 13 TFL and 4.5 sacks He followed that up with a solid sophomore campaign, but has leveled out some the past two years. It seemed as though his stock was quietly rising in the last 3 weeks as the draft approached, but it turns out that at unknown medical issue with his shoulder, perhaps a rotator cuff injury, curtailed any chance he had of going in the 2nd round. In fact typical of Miami’s stringent medical testing, we were one of only 4 teams to discover this. I think he needs coaching, but I think he has great potential as a closed end or inside as the left defensive tackle. Athletically he’s very talented ON the field, and that bore out at the Combine – 6-5, 300lbs, a 32 vertical, a 5.16 forty but a ridiculously good short shuttle of 4.51, giving a huge -.65 differential, showing just exactly what I mean by how athletic he is. And to turn in 31 on the bench with a semi-serious shoulder injury isn’t to be sniffed at. When you watch him, he can disappear for long stretches, but at times, especially earlier in his career, he can dominate. He can get out to the perimeter and make plays, his change of direction and his ability to run down plays is impressive, but he tends to lose focus and plays very high, he can seem to take plays off and looks lazy and disinterested. He has long arms and huge hands that he uses to beat down guards with a great inside swim. Dan Quinn will really need to work on his hips because he rarely drops them and thus can’t gain the leverage needed.
I happen to think he has the potential to be a quality starter at end or inside and it will be worth his while to get his shoulder sorted, learn some better technique and reflect on what it felt like to sit and watch 220 or so players hear their names called before him. If that can motivate him, then it’ll be a hell of a pick. It was clear last year that the DL rotation is one of the most important elements of a Saban team and he loves rotating those big bodies in and out and you can imagine that he’ll keep maybe 10 guys on the roster. So there’s a real chance for both.
I also like our final pick, WR Devin Aromashodu. Nick went very much to type with Devin – athletic, SEC guy who he knew well – and who he played against and who made a play against Nick’s best defensive back to ice the game for the Tigers, a point Nick made at the press conference:
“We were coming back in a game. Getting back into the game and we got a chance to stop him on third down and he beats Corey Webster on a nine (route) and kind of makes the difference in the game. This was at Auburn. That gave them a first down and then they went down and kicked a field goal and then the game was pretty much finished.â€Â
As I said earlier, we knew that he was well liked by the team and the coaches, having had him in to work out as well as going to see him at Auburn on April 5th and having heard that we had been one of the teams most interested since the Combine. What you’re getting in Devin is raw athletic talent. He can get deep down the field with electric speed and I fully expect, if he makes the roster, to come in and run the occasional wind sprint as Daunte looks deep. He’ll need to work on his route running and in the weight room as he’s pretty thin and he struggles in press coverage to get off the jam, but you’ll find very few corners that can keep up with him on a corner route. He’s someone that Charlie Baggett will have to work on – his blocking is poor and he has concentration issues. He’ll get some work in the red zone as he’s a great leaper who catches the ball at its highest point, but I would imagine he’ll be used primarily as a kick returner and the number 5 if he can beat out Kelly Campbell. I would envisage him going to the practice squad if he doesn’t make the final cut because the upside is high.
At 6-2 and 201 lbs, with a 40 inch vertical and a 4.35 forty, he has the athletic tools that you look for with a rough diamond. His small hands may be an issue, but as I said, the upside is high.
Overall, I think Saban and Mueller are to be commended. They let the board come to them. They filled holes in the secondary, on the defensive line and at wide receiver. With the trading away of the 2nd and 6th round picks, they got an All Pro passer and a capable number 3. Rome wasn’t built in a day, but when you look at the 6 picks on Saturday and Sunday, this comes in at a solid B. When you add Culpepper, Wright and Lemon, then anything less than an A to A- is crazy.
It also tells us that Nick really is committed to the draft and to building through the draft, a mantra that he refuses to go against and will continue to do so. It also tells us, as I mentioned, that he likes his athletes and he likes his kids with some intelligence. Not the Wonderlich intelligence necessarily, but University educated intelligence. Jason Allen graduated in 2004 in Sports Management, Hagan’s degree is in Justice and Interdisciplinary Studies, Toledo’s father is in the Secret Service and Joe has a law degree, Fred Evans is an academic award winner, Wright’s degree is in liberal arts and has acted for four years as a mentor at local schools.
In terms of the FA’s that we know of, Steve Fifita of Utah is an interesting candidate. A pure NT, he’s a beast, strength wise. He's very small at around 5'11. He gets great leverage but considering how strong he is, he never consistently makes the sort of impact you'd expect as a pass rusher, but he could be a very effective 3-4 DT as a man who ties up the interior. Justin Holland – QB, Colorado State – well, we knew for the longest time that we’d be bringing him in. Jason Garrett has been all over this kid, going up to scout him personally at the CSU pro day. Seen him a couple of times - personally I think he's a better PRO prospect than his predecessor Bradlee Van Pelt. The arm is pretty good, he can move, his size is pretty decent at around 6-2, he's always been pretty accurate, although further down the field he's not as strong - the arm is good but a la Jay Cutler, the accuracy tends to disappear some - and listening to the telecasts and reading his profile at the CSU website, seems he's a real hardworking kid, really intelligent - member of the National Honor Society and had a 3.8 grade-point average - and a real tape junkie. He needs development, not necessarily as a passer, but just with the mental side of things in terms of where he puts the ball, checking his progressions, etc. But this is a kid who threw for almost 11,000 yards in high school at Bear Creek and then started for 2 years at CSU, although he did break his ankle as a junior.
I saw him once as a junior and once as a senior and he had made significant strides in 2005 - he looked much more confident in the pocket and much more 'in charge'. Just checking the numbers, he was a 62.2% passer in 2005. To my mind, he's a pretty interesting pick up. Sam McGrew – LB, Florida State - is a guy that Nick will have been all over on Wednesday in Tallahassee. I don’t see him making the roster. He struggles in coverage and whilst he’s quick in a short area, he struggles in space.
So we’re done. Thanks for giving draft geeks like me the chance to do this stuff. How did I do with my mock? Pffttt. I was pleased that I stuck with Hawk, Davis and especially Huff to the Raiders, validating what I heard about them not taking a QB, for a month or so. Then I was adamant that Ernie Sims was Detroit’s pick and I had Kamerion Wimbley to Cleveland for a long, long time. And Devin Hester to the Bears I liked as well.
But what about 2007? Well here’s a list of guys who I think we’ll be talking a lot about next year:
QB: Brady Quinn (#1 prospect on my board), Troy Smith, Drew Stanton, Chad Henne, John Beck, Jeff Rowe
TB: Adrian Peterson (#2 prospect on my board), Mike Bush, Alley Broussard, Kenny Irons, Kenneth Darby, Marshawn Lynch.
WR: Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Jarrett, Jeff Samardjiza, Jason Hill, Jarrett Hicks, Teddy Ginn, Joel Filani, Todd Bltyhe.
TE: Greg Olsen, Clark Harris, Martrez Milner, Zach Miller.
OL: Joe Thomas, Sam Baker, Levi Brwon, Justin Blaylock, Gosder Cherilus, Jake Long, Barry Richardson.
DL: Kareem Brown, Gaines Adams, Lawrence Jackson, Adam Carricker, Red Bryant, Frank Okam.
LB: Patrick Willis, Paul Posluszny, Prescott Burgess, Keith Rivers, Brandon Siler.
DB: Antonie Cason, LaRon Landry, Darrelle Revis, Brandon Meriweather, Michael Griffin, Eric Weddle, Derrick Martin, Anthony Reddick, Tom Zbikowski.
Cheers, Boom.
Of course it is.
So what about the 2006 selection meeting? We went in looking for help at QB, WR, OG, DT, SLB, CB and safety. Did we achieve that? Well let’s look at the picks.
1. Jason Allen – FS/CB – Tennessee
2. Daunte Culpepper – QB – Central Florida
3. Derek Hagan – WR – Arizona State
4. Joe Toledo – OT – Washington
5. Manny Wright – DT – USC
6. Cleo Lemon – QB – Arkansas State
7. Fred Evans – DT – Texas State
7. Rodrique Wright – DT – Texas
8. Gboolhan Aromashodu – WR – Auburn
Well we filled some holes for sure. We added athleticism, we added guys with upside, we added guys who can come in and make the roster. And we added guys with question marks – raw guys (Evans, Toledo and Aromashodu) and injury risk guys (Allen, Wright and Culpepper). Nick also stayed true to players he knew – he recruited Aromashodu and Allen and talked to Wright at the Nike Combine in the summer before he committed to Texas and then tried recruiting him despite Rodrique narrowing to Texas, A+M and Oklahoma.)
What we also found out was that for all the smoke, we were pretty sure on 4 of the players that he took that there was a very strong interest – Allen of course we knew had been recruited by Nick because of the two home visits and we knew that Jason had been to Davie and that Nick and Coach Capers flew to Knoxville to work him out. We know that Dan Quinn went to Texas State and worked Fred Evans out personally and that there was a strong interest in Devin Aromashodu and Rod Wright and that both took at least one visit to Davie, with Rodrique working out for us. Plus the three players that they considered moving up for – FSU pairing Ernie Sims and Kamerion Wimbley and Oregon’s Haloti Ngata – were all players who fit the Saban mould and were all guys that we’d either had in to Davie or been to see specifically at campus workouts – in the case of Wimbley and Sims, just 3 days before the draft, which in hindsight probably helped with the deal for Sam McGrew as a FA.
As for adding Culpepper, Wright and Lemon to the equation, you absolutely have to. You give up picks for players in a certain draft, you need to throw the veterans into the mix when you evaluate the end game. With the Culpepper pick, the Vikings drafted New Mexico OC Ryan Cook, a two round reach. Culpepper or Cook? Hmmm. Cleo Lemon or Kurt Smith the Virginia kicker?
So what about the picks themselves?
Well we know all about Allen. The most athletic defensive back from the past two seasons, with the astonishingly quick short shuttle, the 4.39 forty, etc. A guy who declared a year ago and then went back to school for his senior season only to see his season, nee his career almost end when Leonard Pope rolled up on him and he dislocated his hip. There were rumours that he’d failed medicals from 2 national sources – Fox and PFW – but Miami has a hugely strict medical process (remember that Drew Brees failed our medical but passed New Orleans’, which I’m told is pretty tough as well) and in the last few days, a lot of talk was about just where he’d end up. A legitimate top 8-12 pick if healthy, Allen adds versatility to the secondary. I think he’ll start at corner, but I believe he’ll end up at free safety. A very cerebral player, despite the poor Wonderlich score, Jason completed his degree as a junior and if he stays healthy – the shoulder injuries bear watching as well – then you build a secondary around this kid. He’s smart, he has great technique, he is probably the best cover man in the draft in terms of staying deep with his receivers, he flips his hips well, he’s smooth, he plants and drives well and he’s a leader. He’s rangy and he can tackle well. You’d like to see him make more picks, but the guy can flat out play football. We turned down the trade down – Pittsburgh was one such team who enquired and so were the Jags – because we wanted Allen. In a draft where we had just 6 picks (3 of which coming in the 7th), that has to tell you something about how we felt about him.
Initially I was so-so on Hagan. My mind was set to a few other players I had rated higher on my board. But after sleeping on it, I got up and watched some offensive plays of his and came away much brighter. Arguably the greatest receiver in PAC 10 history, he’s the all time conference leader with 258 catches and 2nd in conference history with 3,939 yards. Eighteen one hundred yard + receiving games in his career and a healthy 15.3 career per catch average is testament to his skills. So whilst he wasn’t recruited by Saban – in fact he was barely recruited at all – and in four seasons he only played ONE game against SEC competition (ironically it was LSU in his penultimate game as a Sun Devil), he clearly fits the bill as a player from a major college who has been productive over a long period of time, something very much in evidence from last year’s selections. Derek is someone that Mel Kiper had as his number one ranked senior receiver for three straight seasons and when you watch him you see why. He’s big, he uses his body very well as a shield, he’ll go up and get the ball at the highest point and he is a very strong blocker. What he doesn’t do well is be consistent in his effort as a blocker and finish blocks. But that’s easily coached. His route precision could get better also. Derek is the sort of player that does the little things well – he works back for the ball when the QB is moving, he always wants the ball, he’s a strong personality and he understands coverage. And he’s never missed a game through injury, playing on despite knocks – ‘I don’t get catches standing on the sideline feeling sorry for myself’. His conditioning routine is also something to behold. Kiper calls him one of the hardest working receivers he’s ever graded and his off-season workout regimen is something akin to that of Jerry Rice’s. Plus he watches a tonne of film on defensive backs as well as on other receivers to pick up tips.
What impresses when you watch the games is that he also is very quick off the line and very quickly into and out of his breaks although he will occasionally round off routes or get sloppy. He had the quickest 10 yard split of any wide receiver at the Combine (1.52) and a 4.46 forty time, dispelling any fears of elite speed. In fact only Georgia cornerback Tim Jennings, our own Jason Allen, and running backs Andre Hall, Joseph Addai and Jerrious Norwood had a quicker 10 yard splits than Hagan amongst the entire 330+ players that worked out. (Jonathan Joseph and Gerrick McPherson tied the 1.52). What hurt him were two bad days in Mobile, the Tuesday and the Wednesday where he dropped a lot of balls and then a bad game, but it goes against the grain for what is usually a pretty sure handed player. We’re not talking James McKnight here. He’s also something of a deep threat – I remember seeing the 38-27 loss to Stanford in 2003 and he caught 4-138 including 2 long touchdowns and as a Sun Devil he’s had catches of 51, 80, 67, 49, 50, 47, 79, 45, 47, 46, 59 and 45 yards. So he’s not just a short dink and dunk character. I see him as the long term replacement for Marty Booker as the number two, but someone who will get a lot of balls thrown his way as a rookie. An off field concern – arrested for a fight with his girlfriend and subsequently causing damage to her car – was a one off. A solid top 45 pick whom we got in the early 80’s because of 2 bad days in Alabama. Reminds me a little of Plaxico Burress.
I have to say that I was a little disappointed with the pick of Joe Toledo. And unlike the Hagan pick, some sleep hasn’t changed that. Perhaps I’ve become accustomed to us bringing in some real quality in the 4th round in recent years. Or maybe I believe that when you have 3 picks in what I refer to as the ‘killer rounds’, the first, second, third and fourth, that you should be looking for instant help rather than long term projects. And of course the fact that as the roster stands now, we have Lonnie Shelton, Damian McIntosh, Mike Pearson, Vernon Carey, Anthony Alabi and Tony Pape as tackles, with Jeno James another who played tackle at Auburn. What this pick says to me is that the Alabi project hasn’t worked out. You simply don’t carry two project tackles on your roster. I understand that Hudson Houck deserves a ‘wreck’ to work on, to try and update and caress and turn into something nice, but when a Ray Edwards, a Barry Cofield, a Leon Washington, a Parys Haralson, a Pat Watkins, etc. were still on the board then I have to question it. I know that Dallas were primed to bring Toledo in and that he’s considered a sleeper pick, but I question when he’s going to hit the field?
A receiver and defensive end in high school, Joe came to the Huskies as a tight end, before being shifted to LT in 2005. Recruited as a lineman as well as a tight end, there were whispers of moving him to tackle from the get-go, but as he turned down USC’s offer of playing tackle to play TE, in the end, the move was probably inevitable. With that in mind, I fully expected him to test well athletically. And he did. But that athleticism must be tempered by the fact that he spent much of his time as a wide-out and then a tight end. And despite the fact that he was known more as a blocking tight-end, it would have been something of a shock if he hadn’t have turned in very good numbers at the Combine – a 5.17 forty and a 4.66 short shuttle, coming in with an impressive -.51 differential. He measured 6054 and 337 in Indy (was 332 at his Pro Day) and so he’s added a lot of weight in a short space of time, although he carries the weight well and had the frame with which to do so. He added 31lbs in the 2005 off-season and played at close to 317lbs as a senior. But he missed most of his senior campaign and he added more weight in the build up to the Combine. Ideally I think he’s best suited at around 320.
What worries me the most about Toledo are the injuries. I don’t care how fast a guy runs or what his Wonderlich is if he can’t stay on the field. Just weeks after arriving on campus in the fall of 2001, Toledo broke his foot in a practice drill and ended up redshirting the season. In 2002 he damaged the rotator cuff in his shoulder which then tore in the Bowl game, forcing him to rehabilitate for more than six months, recovering just in time to start the 2003 season but then began feeling the effects of a back injury just a few games in, missing a number of games with a bulging disc. He then made his comeback against USC only to suffer a groin injury. The two ailments combined to keep him sidelined the rest of the season and throughout the spring and even Toledo himself thought he might never play again. He came back for the 2004 season and then damaged the MCL in his knee before switching to LT. He shot up the depth chart and became the starter, only to sprain his knee in the opener and miss five games, coming back and playing 3 at RT and the last two on the left. So essentially he’s played 2 games and 2 quarters at left tackle and 3 games at right tackle. He was even injured for much of the Combine.
Amazingly I can actually claim to have seen him on the field as a left tackle. He moves well, but his technique and footwork are poor. He gets out to the second level and understands the fundamentals, despite not achieving them. He seems to think too much about what he’s supposed to be doing, which is understandable. The basic tools are there, but with 5 games and 2 quarters worth of experience on the offensive line, there is a huge task ahead. Every year Saban chucks Hudson Houck a bone. Joe Toledo is this year’s bone. I just hope it’s a bone he doesn’t break.
The first of our three seventh rounders was spent on Texas State DT Fred Evans. Big Freddie is the sort of player that I can see being a nose tackle. At 6036 and 305lbs, he looks to have the frame to add weight and get into the 325 area. As I mentioned at the top, he’s a guy that came into Davie for a workout and we also sent DL coach Dan Quinn to TSU to work him out again, so the interest was there and clear. What his pick did provide us was our first chance to see that Nick isn’t afraid of the small school prospect. And he clearly liked what he saw, especially when he stepped up a level both at the Hula Bowl and when the Bobcats played Texas A+M (where he had 6 tackles and 3 TFL). And Evans, who had to be convinced to take up football by his best friend, Notre Dame linebacker Cory Mays, was recruited by Pat Hill, so there is a direct link there to Coach Saban.
He's a former offensive tackle who was recruited by Illinois and signed there, but failed to meet his academic requirements and went to Junior College – the College of Dupage - where he played two seasons for the Chaparrals. Considering he had very little high school football experience - his main sport is water polo and his father is in the swimming Hall of Fame - he made 2nd Team All Conference and All Region. He had the chance to go back to Illinois, but instead chose to wipe the slate clean and headed to Texas State, despite being heavily recruited by Kansas, New Mexico, Temple, Youngstown State and Central Florida and dominated, registering 17.5 tackles for losses and 6.5 sacks in 2004, on his way to being named D-1AA All-American. As a senior, he didn’t train on quite as well, but faced more double teaming which affected his game on game consistency. But his numbers weren’t affected, registering 5 sacks and 18TFL. Ironically, Evans almost played OT at TSU before being shifted to the defensive side of the ball.
Apparently he's a great kid, very charismatic, focused and dedicated, he has the initial quicks to be a 3-4 end by the looks of things, but as I said, I think he could add some weight and come in at NT. He's apparently strong at the point, very athletic - I've not seen Texas State I'm afraid - and moves laterally very well. ‘Great hip flexibility’ is something I keep seeing about him. At the TS pro day he was 6036 and 305, ran a very respectable 5.12 and an excellent short shuttle of 4.65, a 35 inch vertical and a somewhat disappointing 18 lifts. Academically he’s very bright and like Hagan, he is an incredibly hard worker off the field – his head coach at Texas State said; "One of the things that differentiated him from other players was his approach to practice and games. Evans approached every day with the idea of what could he do to become better and worked hard to improve his technique".
The coaching staff and Mid-West scout Jack Glowik must have done a great job on looking at this kid and they must be very high on him to take him and not let him fall to free agency – the athletic numbers, the 35 inch vertical especially and the ability to play 3 and 5 technique and the nose, with the explosion is certainly interesting.
Our 2nd pick in the 7th round was Rodrique Wright, a guy who fell probably 200 or so selections from a year ago, where he was forecast as a mid to late 1st round pick. This represents tremendous value for where he was taken and as NFL.com’s Pat Kirwan said in the aftermath of Sunday’s final round, it was the ‘pick of the draft’. He comes from great stock. Uncle Elmo was a first round pick of the Chiefs in 1971 and Cedric Woodward of Seattle is his cousin. Heavily recruited by Nick Saban, he was a Parade All American and one the nations top recruits, choosing UT over A+M and Oklahoma. He probably had his best year as a freshman, coming in and starting 9 games and flashing huge early 1st round potential, winning Big 12 Freshman of the Year, registering 13 TFL and 4.5 sacks He followed that up with a solid sophomore campaign, but has leveled out some the past two years. It seemed as though his stock was quietly rising in the last 3 weeks as the draft approached, but it turns out that at unknown medical issue with his shoulder, perhaps a rotator cuff injury, curtailed any chance he had of going in the 2nd round. In fact typical of Miami’s stringent medical testing, we were one of only 4 teams to discover this. I think he needs coaching, but I think he has great potential as a closed end or inside as the left defensive tackle. Athletically he’s very talented ON the field, and that bore out at the Combine – 6-5, 300lbs, a 32 vertical, a 5.16 forty but a ridiculously good short shuttle of 4.51, giving a huge -.65 differential, showing just exactly what I mean by how athletic he is. And to turn in 31 on the bench with a semi-serious shoulder injury isn’t to be sniffed at. When you watch him, he can disappear for long stretches, but at times, especially earlier in his career, he can dominate. He can get out to the perimeter and make plays, his change of direction and his ability to run down plays is impressive, but he tends to lose focus and plays very high, he can seem to take plays off and looks lazy and disinterested. He has long arms and huge hands that he uses to beat down guards with a great inside swim. Dan Quinn will really need to work on his hips because he rarely drops them and thus can’t gain the leverage needed.
I happen to think he has the potential to be a quality starter at end or inside and it will be worth his while to get his shoulder sorted, learn some better technique and reflect on what it felt like to sit and watch 220 or so players hear their names called before him. If that can motivate him, then it’ll be a hell of a pick. It was clear last year that the DL rotation is one of the most important elements of a Saban team and he loves rotating those big bodies in and out and you can imagine that he’ll keep maybe 10 guys on the roster. So there’s a real chance for both.
I also like our final pick, WR Devin Aromashodu. Nick went very much to type with Devin – athletic, SEC guy who he knew well – and who he played against and who made a play against Nick’s best defensive back to ice the game for the Tigers, a point Nick made at the press conference:
“We were coming back in a game. Getting back into the game and we got a chance to stop him on third down and he beats Corey Webster on a nine (route) and kind of makes the difference in the game. This was at Auburn. That gave them a first down and then they went down and kicked a field goal and then the game was pretty much finished.â€Â
As I said earlier, we knew that he was well liked by the team and the coaches, having had him in to work out as well as going to see him at Auburn on April 5th and having heard that we had been one of the teams most interested since the Combine. What you’re getting in Devin is raw athletic talent. He can get deep down the field with electric speed and I fully expect, if he makes the roster, to come in and run the occasional wind sprint as Daunte looks deep. He’ll need to work on his route running and in the weight room as he’s pretty thin and he struggles in press coverage to get off the jam, but you’ll find very few corners that can keep up with him on a corner route. He’s someone that Charlie Baggett will have to work on – his blocking is poor and he has concentration issues. He’ll get some work in the red zone as he’s a great leaper who catches the ball at its highest point, but I would imagine he’ll be used primarily as a kick returner and the number 5 if he can beat out Kelly Campbell. I would envisage him going to the practice squad if he doesn’t make the final cut because the upside is high.
At 6-2 and 201 lbs, with a 40 inch vertical and a 4.35 forty, he has the athletic tools that you look for with a rough diamond. His small hands may be an issue, but as I said, the upside is high.
Overall, I think Saban and Mueller are to be commended. They let the board come to them. They filled holes in the secondary, on the defensive line and at wide receiver. With the trading away of the 2nd and 6th round picks, they got an All Pro passer and a capable number 3. Rome wasn’t built in a day, but when you look at the 6 picks on Saturday and Sunday, this comes in at a solid B. When you add Culpepper, Wright and Lemon, then anything less than an A to A- is crazy.
It also tells us that Nick really is committed to the draft and to building through the draft, a mantra that he refuses to go against and will continue to do so. It also tells us, as I mentioned, that he likes his athletes and he likes his kids with some intelligence. Not the Wonderlich intelligence necessarily, but University educated intelligence. Jason Allen graduated in 2004 in Sports Management, Hagan’s degree is in Justice and Interdisciplinary Studies, Toledo’s father is in the Secret Service and Joe has a law degree, Fred Evans is an academic award winner, Wright’s degree is in liberal arts and has acted for four years as a mentor at local schools.
In terms of the FA’s that we know of, Steve Fifita of Utah is an interesting candidate. A pure NT, he’s a beast, strength wise. He's very small at around 5'11. He gets great leverage but considering how strong he is, he never consistently makes the sort of impact you'd expect as a pass rusher, but he could be a very effective 3-4 DT as a man who ties up the interior. Justin Holland – QB, Colorado State – well, we knew for the longest time that we’d be bringing him in. Jason Garrett has been all over this kid, going up to scout him personally at the CSU pro day. Seen him a couple of times - personally I think he's a better PRO prospect than his predecessor Bradlee Van Pelt. The arm is pretty good, he can move, his size is pretty decent at around 6-2, he's always been pretty accurate, although further down the field he's not as strong - the arm is good but a la Jay Cutler, the accuracy tends to disappear some - and listening to the telecasts and reading his profile at the CSU website, seems he's a real hardworking kid, really intelligent - member of the National Honor Society and had a 3.8 grade-point average - and a real tape junkie. He needs development, not necessarily as a passer, but just with the mental side of things in terms of where he puts the ball, checking his progressions, etc. But this is a kid who threw for almost 11,000 yards in high school at Bear Creek and then started for 2 years at CSU, although he did break his ankle as a junior.
I saw him once as a junior and once as a senior and he had made significant strides in 2005 - he looked much more confident in the pocket and much more 'in charge'. Just checking the numbers, he was a 62.2% passer in 2005. To my mind, he's a pretty interesting pick up. Sam McGrew – LB, Florida State - is a guy that Nick will have been all over on Wednesday in Tallahassee. I don’t see him making the roster. He struggles in coverage and whilst he’s quick in a short area, he struggles in space.
So we’re done. Thanks for giving draft geeks like me the chance to do this stuff. How did I do with my mock? Pffttt. I was pleased that I stuck with Hawk, Davis and especially Huff to the Raiders, validating what I heard about them not taking a QB, for a month or so. Then I was adamant that Ernie Sims was Detroit’s pick and I had Kamerion Wimbley to Cleveland for a long, long time. And Devin Hester to the Bears I liked as well.
But what about 2007? Well here’s a list of guys who I think we’ll be talking a lot about next year:
QB: Brady Quinn (#1 prospect on my board), Troy Smith, Drew Stanton, Chad Henne, John Beck, Jeff Rowe
TB: Adrian Peterson (#2 prospect on my board), Mike Bush, Alley Broussard, Kenny Irons, Kenneth Darby, Marshawn Lynch.
WR: Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Jarrett, Jeff Samardjiza, Jason Hill, Jarrett Hicks, Teddy Ginn, Joel Filani, Todd Bltyhe.
TE: Greg Olsen, Clark Harris, Martrez Milner, Zach Miller.
OL: Joe Thomas, Sam Baker, Levi Brwon, Justin Blaylock, Gosder Cherilus, Jake Long, Barry Richardson.
DL: Kareem Brown, Gaines Adams, Lawrence Jackson, Adam Carricker, Red Bryant, Frank Okam.
LB: Patrick Willis, Paul Posluszny, Prescott Burgess, Keith Rivers, Brandon Siler.
DB: Antonie Cason, LaRon Landry, Darrelle Revis, Brandon Meriweather, Michael Griffin, Eric Weddle, Derrick Martin, Anthony Reddick, Tom Zbikowski.
Cheers, Boom.
