keithjackson
junkyard dolphin
The moment Dan Carpenter's kick went wide left, the curse of the Buffalo Bills was lifted. These Dolphins aren't afraid of anyone anymore, not even the highly touted Denver Broncos. Once, this game seemed like icing, with fans penciling in a Loss from the beginning, but now it looks entirely winnable.
Still, this week may be the season's toughest test, pitting the Denver Broncos' second rated passing offense against the second passing defense. Not looking to be overshadowed on the other side of the ball, Football Outsiders rates the Denver defense the most consistent in the game, and the Miami offense third most. (Ryan Tannehill and the Denver D may be the most underrated QB/Def in the NFL.) Coming into the game, the Dolphins should have all the confidence in the world, whereas the Broncos seem to be experiencing a late onslaught of the Super Bowl hangover after getting throttled 22-7 by the Rams, where their only points came off a bomb against a blown coverage. Don't be fooled by the injuries, they stunk even when they had their full compliment. The previous week against the Raiders they struggled, trailing with 3 minutes left in the first half until Oakland, true to form, surrendered five touchdowns. Against the Pats? Putrid. The Dolphins have a knack for making the teams they beat feel parts of the sky fall on their heads, and the whispers of "is Peyton done?" will surely follow another loss. (Just ask Tom Brady.)
This may be the worst three game stretch of Peyton's non-rookie career. The gameplan is simple: pressure him into rushing his throws because he doesn't have the arm strength to compensate. Easier said than done! Peyton Manning is still the GOAT, slump or not. This season, he has 30 touchdowns (#1), 8.0 yards/attempt (#4), 106.4 rating (#3), and at home his rating skyrockets to 128.2. He is a master of knowing when and where to throw the ball, picking the best situations to use the best plays. The difference between good and great is doing all the easy things right everytime. In fact, Peyton's method is based on simplicity; he really only has 15 or so plays that he runs out of multiple formations. What makes him, and this offense, elite is his inimitable ability to connect on over-the-shoulder drop-it-in-the-bucket deep balls. In passes 20-40 yards, he is 21/40 725 8/0 with a 135.0 rating. The Broncos have 28 passes of 25+ yards(#2).The Dolphins have only allowed 12 (#3), and this Strength v. Strength is the key to the game when Denver has the ball. Prevent the big pass play, and you win. Translation: pray Emmanuel Sanders doesn't play, and if he does, he's your number one priority. He is the key to Denver's success against us.
Demaryius Thomas is a monster trolling the middle of the field, but Brent Grimes should be able to contain him. Wes Welker is the invisible man this season; if there were an opposite to the "Comeback POTY Award", he'd win. Julius Thomas is another tough S.O.B., but, whether he plays or not, the Dolphins have dominated tight ends over the last five weeks. For fantasy football fans, Miami has only allowed eight points combined to TEs over that span. (Also, they've allowed the least points to QBs this season, too.) The biggest reason is the improved play of the Linebackers. Koa Misi is thriving in the middle, and Jelani Jenkins is playing at a Pro Bowl level. The LB unit has a total of ten missed tackles all year! The whole MIA defense is smart, fast, versatile, and swarming - and well coached. Denver has crumbled against strong Dlines able to bring pressure with just four. Manning cannot rifle passes into tight windows, instead relying on timing routes. Jam the receivers and force Manning to throw before he wants. He has shown poor accuracy these past few weeks under these situations, throwing two interceptions in each of the last three games. If the rush has an impact, Manning has been dreadful when forced to throw passes between 11-20 yards (58/100 417 53% 6/7 75.3). Miami's pass defense, allowing only 59% completion (#4) and 77.9 rating (#3), has the talent to do this.
Cam Wake needs to have a big game against a RT position that has been a revolving door. However the struggles of the Denver Oline are overrated in pass protection, as they only have allowed 11 sacks (#1). Luckily, you don't need to sack Peyton to rattle him. He will throw the ball when hurried in generous acts of self-preservation. The interior DLine is what really needs to show up this week, providing pressure up the middle. While talented at pushing pockets back, Miami's DTs have combined for only 6 sacks and 6 hurries this season. Denver's Oline really struggles in run blocking, averaging only 3.7 yards/carry and 89.9 yards/game. (That has decreased to 2.7 y/c over the last three games.) It doesn't help that they only run 37% of the time (second least); last week they only attempted nine rushes. CJ Anderson is a talented runner that has the wiggle to make people miss if he's given the opportunity. Miami's defense can stop the run, and is one of the best at covering screens and passes in the flat; the closer this game is played at the LOS, the better their chances.
Denver's defensive line, however, is ranked even higher than the Fins'. With respect to Manning's deep ball, it is the strength of their team, especially against the run. Ranked #2 allowing 73.4 yards/game and 3.3 yards/carry, they benefit from the fewest rushing attempts against in the NFL at 22 per game. Don't let that fool you into dismissing their talent. They are the NFL's best power run defending team, stopping 89% of rushes on 3rd/4th & short, rushes needing 2> yards, and goal line situations. (Miami's Oline is ranked #27 in those power situations, so don't expect much success.) They also stuff 12.2% of rushes for zero or negative gains (#4), and are #1 in preventing 10+ yard runs. (The Dolphins are a boom-or-bust running team, near the tops in stuffed runs (5th-worst) and 10+ yard runs (7th-best).) Football Outsiders ranks the Denver DLine #1 in the open field and #2 in the second level. (The second level should be a fun contest as Miami's Oline is ranked fifth-best.) Denver's also #1 in defending runs around the left end and over the right tackle, and #2 around the right end. There's no running to the outside against them. If we have any chance it's running down the middle, where they are merely ranked #7. That just happens to be our strength, as we are ranked #3 rushing inside. Denver is awesome in pursuit and will tackle you if you try to run by them, so Miller and Williams need to be patient this week and wait for their blocks to develop. Run decisively through whatever holes you find because any hesitation will get you tackled. The ace in the hole may be the read option. Denver faced top five rushing attacks three times this season: they suffocated the Jets, but surrendered 133 rushing yards to KC and 129 to SEA. The commonality in those two games was a weakness against a mobile QB; Alex Smith ran for 9/40 and Russell Wilson 5/42. Tannehill's legs should have a big impact in this gameplan.
While Peyton has posted an 85.1 rating over the last three games, Ryan Tannehill has an 106.4 rating, completing 72.6% of his passes. Over the past five, Ryan's also completing 70%, and his 104.1 also leads Peyton's 102.3. If Tannehill can outplay - or keep pace with - Manning, the Dolphins should be able to walk out of Mile High victorious. Aside from mobile QBs, the only other true weakness in the Denver defense is guarding tight ends; over the last four games, they've allowed 47 receptions and 4 TDs to the position. If Charles Clay cannot play, it will be a huge blow. Can Gator pick up the slack?
The biggest concern for the Dolphins will be Ja'Waun James and Dallas Thomas against Von Miller and Demarcus Ware. While they held their own last week against a fierce Buffalo front, expecting the same in a hostile stadium and weather is foolish from two youngsters playing out of position. Dion Sims will have to help a lot. Employ a lot out of moving pockets. Have Tannehill throw on a lot of roll-outs. Yards won't be easy, and Ryan will once again be under constant pressure. More than ever, he needs to throw the ball away if under duress this week because escaping will be nearly impossible (esp up the middle). Expect the same short passing game they've perfected; quick outs and screens are your best best. While the Denver Oline is getting all the grief, expect Miami's to have the worse day. But it seems like we are saying this every week now, and Miami is becoming adept at solving DLine riddles. One of the strengths of this team has been its ability to improve.
Other Storylines All the sophomores, not just Thomas, are going to relied upon this weekend. Dallas, Sims, Jenkins, Jordan, and Sturgis, after a maligned rookie campaign, have the team on their shoulders now. The biggest spotlight, however, may be on Jamar Taylor. He played well last week, but you know Peyton is going to target him all day. He needs to pick up where he left off, and avoid DPIs at all costs. If Jamar and Dallas have good games, we win. These teams tell the tale of two Redzones. Miami is #1 in the NFL with 4.9 trips into the redzone a game, while Denver is #1 with 77% scoring touchdowns. (For example, while Manning is the best redzone QB, he had zero RZ trips last week.) Thus they are averaging about the same redzone touchdowns a game. (However, DEN did force five STL field goals last week.) The Special Teams units are the weakest links on both teams. Crazy streak. Miami had another drive start in the opponents' redzone against Buffalo (on downs), bringing it's total to 12 (#1 by a mile - #2 is 6). Adding two pick-sixes to make the total 14, that equals amount of three-and-outs the dolphins have had this season. Quarter-by-quarter. Denver has been terrible in the first quarter lately, scoring 0-7-3-0 in the past four games. Both teams come to life in the third, MIA #1 and DEN #3 in scoring. Playing from behind, Manning's rating drops from 125.1 when winning to 89.6 when trailing; Tannehill's drops from 95.1 to 79.7. When tied, Manning is 118.0 and Tannehill is 123.5. Penalties. Denver is the most penalized team in the NFL, while Miami is the third least. In a defensive battle, the hidden yardage of penalties and turnovers may prove the difference. Close Game? Neither team has won a close game; the smallest margin of victory has been Denver by 7 against SD and Indy. In fact, despite their 13 combined wins, neither team has a game-winning drive or fourth quarter comeback to their credit.
Prediction. The defensive lines could dominate this game. Both defenses are tied for #1 allowing only 4.7 yards/play, and tied at #1 allowing 6.1 yards/pass attempt. Over the past few weeks, Miami has shown the ability to overcome those odds, while Denver has really struggled. Actually, Miami has improved during its recent three game stretch against top ten defenses. The Dolphins also come into the game more adept than the Broncos at 5+ minute and 10+ play drives.The cold and forecast may benefit Ryan's lasers over Peyton's rainbows, too. Expect the Broncos to continue limping into this game and Peyton to continue looking like a 38 year old out there. If it can defend the deep ball and produce yards out of the read option, Miami will walk away with the best conference record in the AFC and legitimately in the conversation as a top five team.
MIA 23 DEN 20
Still, this week may be the season's toughest test, pitting the Denver Broncos' second rated passing offense against the second passing defense. Not looking to be overshadowed on the other side of the ball, Football Outsiders rates the Denver defense the most consistent in the game, and the Miami offense third most. (Ryan Tannehill and the Denver D may be the most underrated QB/Def in the NFL.) Coming into the game, the Dolphins should have all the confidence in the world, whereas the Broncos seem to be experiencing a late onslaught of the Super Bowl hangover after getting throttled 22-7 by the Rams, where their only points came off a bomb against a blown coverage. Don't be fooled by the injuries, they stunk even when they had their full compliment. The previous week against the Raiders they struggled, trailing with 3 minutes left in the first half until Oakland, true to form, surrendered five touchdowns. Against the Pats? Putrid. The Dolphins have a knack for making the teams they beat feel parts of the sky fall on their heads, and the whispers of "is Peyton done?" will surely follow another loss. (Just ask Tom Brady.)
This may be the worst three game stretch of Peyton's non-rookie career. The gameplan is simple: pressure him into rushing his throws because he doesn't have the arm strength to compensate. Easier said than done! Peyton Manning is still the GOAT, slump or not. This season, he has 30 touchdowns (#1), 8.0 yards/attempt (#4), 106.4 rating (#3), and at home his rating skyrockets to 128.2. He is a master of knowing when and where to throw the ball, picking the best situations to use the best plays. The difference between good and great is doing all the easy things right everytime. In fact, Peyton's method is based on simplicity; he really only has 15 or so plays that he runs out of multiple formations. What makes him, and this offense, elite is his inimitable ability to connect on over-the-shoulder drop-it-in-the-bucket deep balls. In passes 20-40 yards, he is 21/40 725 8/0 with a 135.0 rating. The Broncos have 28 passes of 25+ yards(#2).The Dolphins have only allowed 12 (#3), and this Strength v. Strength is the key to the game when Denver has the ball. Prevent the big pass play, and you win. Translation: pray Emmanuel Sanders doesn't play, and if he does, he's your number one priority. He is the key to Denver's success against us.
Demaryius Thomas is a monster trolling the middle of the field, but Brent Grimes should be able to contain him. Wes Welker is the invisible man this season; if there were an opposite to the "Comeback POTY Award", he'd win. Julius Thomas is another tough S.O.B., but, whether he plays or not, the Dolphins have dominated tight ends over the last five weeks. For fantasy football fans, Miami has only allowed eight points combined to TEs over that span. (Also, they've allowed the least points to QBs this season, too.) The biggest reason is the improved play of the Linebackers. Koa Misi is thriving in the middle, and Jelani Jenkins is playing at a Pro Bowl level. The LB unit has a total of ten missed tackles all year! The whole MIA defense is smart, fast, versatile, and swarming - and well coached. Denver has crumbled against strong Dlines able to bring pressure with just four. Manning cannot rifle passes into tight windows, instead relying on timing routes. Jam the receivers and force Manning to throw before he wants. He has shown poor accuracy these past few weeks under these situations, throwing two interceptions in each of the last three games. If the rush has an impact, Manning has been dreadful when forced to throw passes between 11-20 yards (58/100 417 53% 6/7 75.3). Miami's pass defense, allowing only 59% completion (#4) and 77.9 rating (#3), has the talent to do this.
Cam Wake needs to have a big game against a RT position that has been a revolving door. However the struggles of the Denver Oline are overrated in pass protection, as they only have allowed 11 sacks (#1). Luckily, you don't need to sack Peyton to rattle him. He will throw the ball when hurried in generous acts of self-preservation. The interior DLine is what really needs to show up this week, providing pressure up the middle. While talented at pushing pockets back, Miami's DTs have combined for only 6 sacks and 6 hurries this season. Denver's Oline really struggles in run blocking, averaging only 3.7 yards/carry and 89.9 yards/game. (That has decreased to 2.7 y/c over the last three games.) It doesn't help that they only run 37% of the time (second least); last week they only attempted nine rushes. CJ Anderson is a talented runner that has the wiggle to make people miss if he's given the opportunity. Miami's defense can stop the run, and is one of the best at covering screens and passes in the flat; the closer this game is played at the LOS, the better their chances.
Denver's defensive line, however, is ranked even higher than the Fins'. With respect to Manning's deep ball, it is the strength of their team, especially against the run. Ranked #2 allowing 73.4 yards/game and 3.3 yards/carry, they benefit from the fewest rushing attempts against in the NFL at 22 per game. Don't let that fool you into dismissing their talent. They are the NFL's best power run defending team, stopping 89% of rushes on 3rd/4th & short, rushes needing 2> yards, and goal line situations. (Miami's Oline is ranked #27 in those power situations, so don't expect much success.) They also stuff 12.2% of rushes for zero or negative gains (#4), and are #1 in preventing 10+ yard runs. (The Dolphins are a boom-or-bust running team, near the tops in stuffed runs (5th-worst) and 10+ yard runs (7th-best).) Football Outsiders ranks the Denver DLine #1 in the open field and #2 in the second level. (The second level should be a fun contest as Miami's Oline is ranked fifth-best.) Denver's also #1 in defending runs around the left end and over the right tackle, and #2 around the right end. There's no running to the outside against them. If we have any chance it's running down the middle, where they are merely ranked #7. That just happens to be our strength, as we are ranked #3 rushing inside. Denver is awesome in pursuit and will tackle you if you try to run by them, so Miller and Williams need to be patient this week and wait for their blocks to develop. Run decisively through whatever holes you find because any hesitation will get you tackled. The ace in the hole may be the read option. Denver faced top five rushing attacks three times this season: they suffocated the Jets, but surrendered 133 rushing yards to KC and 129 to SEA. The commonality in those two games was a weakness against a mobile QB; Alex Smith ran for 9/40 and Russell Wilson 5/42. Tannehill's legs should have a big impact in this gameplan.
While Peyton has posted an 85.1 rating over the last three games, Ryan Tannehill has an 106.4 rating, completing 72.6% of his passes. Over the past five, Ryan's also completing 70%, and his 104.1 also leads Peyton's 102.3. If Tannehill can outplay - or keep pace with - Manning, the Dolphins should be able to walk out of Mile High victorious. Aside from mobile QBs, the only other true weakness in the Denver defense is guarding tight ends; over the last four games, they've allowed 47 receptions and 4 TDs to the position. If Charles Clay cannot play, it will be a huge blow. Can Gator pick up the slack?
The biggest concern for the Dolphins will be Ja'Waun James and Dallas Thomas against Von Miller and Demarcus Ware. While they held their own last week against a fierce Buffalo front, expecting the same in a hostile stadium and weather is foolish from two youngsters playing out of position. Dion Sims will have to help a lot. Employ a lot out of moving pockets. Have Tannehill throw on a lot of roll-outs. Yards won't be easy, and Ryan will once again be under constant pressure. More than ever, he needs to throw the ball away if under duress this week because escaping will be nearly impossible (esp up the middle). Expect the same short passing game they've perfected; quick outs and screens are your best best. While the Denver Oline is getting all the grief, expect Miami's to have the worse day. But it seems like we are saying this every week now, and Miami is becoming adept at solving DLine riddles. One of the strengths of this team has been its ability to improve.
Other Storylines All the sophomores, not just Thomas, are going to relied upon this weekend. Dallas, Sims, Jenkins, Jordan, and Sturgis, after a maligned rookie campaign, have the team on their shoulders now. The biggest spotlight, however, may be on Jamar Taylor. He played well last week, but you know Peyton is going to target him all day. He needs to pick up where he left off, and avoid DPIs at all costs. If Jamar and Dallas have good games, we win. These teams tell the tale of two Redzones. Miami is #1 in the NFL with 4.9 trips into the redzone a game, while Denver is #1 with 77% scoring touchdowns. (For example, while Manning is the best redzone QB, he had zero RZ trips last week.) Thus they are averaging about the same redzone touchdowns a game. (However, DEN did force five STL field goals last week.) The Special Teams units are the weakest links on both teams. Crazy streak. Miami had another drive start in the opponents' redzone against Buffalo (on downs), bringing it's total to 12 (#1 by a mile - #2 is 6). Adding two pick-sixes to make the total 14, that equals amount of three-and-outs the dolphins have had this season. Quarter-by-quarter. Denver has been terrible in the first quarter lately, scoring 0-7-3-0 in the past four games. Both teams come to life in the third, MIA #1 and DEN #3 in scoring. Playing from behind, Manning's rating drops from 125.1 when winning to 89.6 when trailing; Tannehill's drops from 95.1 to 79.7. When tied, Manning is 118.0 and Tannehill is 123.5. Penalties. Denver is the most penalized team in the NFL, while Miami is the third least. In a defensive battle, the hidden yardage of penalties and turnovers may prove the difference. Close Game? Neither team has won a close game; the smallest margin of victory has been Denver by 7 against SD and Indy. In fact, despite their 13 combined wins, neither team has a game-winning drive or fourth quarter comeback to their credit.
Prediction. The defensive lines could dominate this game. Both defenses are tied for #1 allowing only 4.7 yards/play, and tied at #1 allowing 6.1 yards/pass attempt. Over the past few weeks, Miami has shown the ability to overcome those odds, while Denver has really struggled. Actually, Miami has improved during its recent three game stretch against top ten defenses. The Dolphins also come into the game more adept than the Broncos at 5+ minute and 10+ play drives.The cold and forecast may benefit Ryan's lasers over Peyton's rainbows, too. Expect the Broncos to continue limping into this game and Peyton to continue looking like a 38 year old out there. If it can defend the deep ball and produce yards out of the read option, Miami will walk away with the best conference record in the AFC and legitimately in the conversation as a top five team.
MIA 23 DEN 20
