PAPER TIGER: Buffalo Bills
I hate being the bearer of bad news, but the current run is over in Western New York. Heading into the Bills'
Monday night matchup with the Jets at MetLife Stadium, I'm just not buying what Buffalo's selling.
Despite the presence of an MVP-caliber quarterback with "take over the game" potential, the championship window has closed on this version of the Bills. Buffalo has been weakened by free-agent departures (SEE: leading tackler
Tremaine Edmunds and leading rusher
Devin Singletary), coaching attrition (
Leslie Frazier stepped away from his role as defensive coordinator in February), philosophical changes (current OC Ken Dorsey vs. old OC Brian Daboll) and potential chemistry issues (
hello, Stefon Diggs). All of that, plus the general trend line of this team that finished last season with
an enormous thud, does NOT inspire confidence in a Super Bowl run through the minefield that is this season's AFC.
At publishing, Buffalo boasts the third-highest odds to win the Super Bowl on Caesars Sportsbook & Casino, tied with San Francisco and only trailing Philadelphia and Kansas City. But for me, it's hard to envision these Bills competing with the very best teams in the league. The offense seriously sputtered at times in 2022 under the direction of a new play-caller attempting to tweak the scheme to suit his vision. After watching
Josh Allen and Co. repeatedly misfire in crucial moments, the question remains whether Dorsey's offense can evolve to make the game easier for a quarterback who already has too much on his plate.
In addition, the lack of an established WR2 puts the onus on Diggs to really carry the passing game. Sure, first-round rookie
Dalton Kincaid and Pro Bowler
Dalton Knox could form a dynamic duo at tight end, but defenses are unlikely to significantly shift their focus away from Diggs unless the Bills' rushing attack and ball-control passing game light up the scoreboard with minimal contributions from the superstar receiver.
From a defensive standpoint, Frazier's departure could shift the scheme's emphasis. The veteran defensive architect crafted a system that enabled defensive backs to play fast as "see ball, get ball" defenders. Although head coach Sean McDermott has always played a significant role in defensive game-planning and game-day decisions, his transition from overseer to play-caller could shift the Bills' defensive approach while also diverting McDermott's attention away from key game-management decisions. Given the challenge of wearing multiple hats on game day, Frazier's absence could substantially impact the Bills' synergy this season.
In addition, Buffalo's front-line personnel does not stack up with the elite defensive units in the AFC, particularly when it comes to the pass rush.
Von Miller is an all-time great, but the veteran will spend
at least the first four weeks of the season on the PUP list. And whenever he returns, the 34-year-old will be coming off a major injury (ACL tear) that could limit his impact as a disruptor. Remember, the eight-time Pro Bowler's game is built on extreme quickness and bend off the edge. Although the
June addition of
Leonard Floyd gave Buffalo a veteran at defensive end, the Bills' pass-rush-by-committee approach leaves a lot to be desired in a pass-happy league. 2021 first-rounder
Greg Rousseau needs to make another big leap in 2023.
Given the slim margin for error in this AFC -- which is absolutely loaded with elite teams and quarterbacks -- I'm concerned about Buffalo's outlook this season. Shoot, the AFC East race alone looks like a bear, with the Jets and Dolphins clearly on the come-up. At the moment, I find it difficult to envision the Bills making the playoffs at all, much less winning a fourth straight division title and vying for a top seed.
