The Miami Dolphins lost a hardfought battle on the road last week to defending AFC Champion Denver. Ryan Tannehill and company led much of the afternoon, which is tough to do at that site. There was nothing to be ashamed of in the final 38-35 decision. Losing close games in Denver is impressive!
But, that loss dropped Miami to 6-5 … which is very bad news in the crowded AFC Wildcard race. There’s no way the Dolphins are going to catch AFC East leader New England from behind barring a lot of injury luck. Miami can only play for the wild card. Look where that 6-5 mark leaves them heading into this week’s Monday Night game on the road against the New York Jets.
AFC wild card picture (best two qualify)
San Diego 8-4
Kansas City 7-5
Baltimore 7-5
Pittsburgh 7-5
Cleveland 7-5
Buffalo 7-5
Miami 6-5
Houston 6-6
Miami’s only a half game out of the second wild card … but there are FIVE other teams currently tied for the final spot. And, Miami only faces one of them head-to-head from this point forward (hosting Baltimore on December 7). Miami has to win four of its last five games to get to 10-6 … and then also get some help. (Note that Miami would hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over San Diego, but would lose one to Kansas City based on earlier results this season).
Theoretically, 10-6 may still not be good enough to get in.
Now … the good news. Not only are the Jets just what the doctor ordered for teams needing a win (just ask Buffalo). But, the Jets are on the schedule twice in the last five weeks! And, based on current projections, Miami will be favored to win four of its last five regular season games. That gives them a great shot to get to 10 victories.
Still Ahead for Miami
Monday: at the NY Jets (road favorite)
December 7: vs. Baltimore (small home favorite)
December 14: at New England (clear road underdog)
December 21: vs. Minnesota (clear home favorite)
December 28: vs. NY Jets (clear home favorite)
There’s virtually no margin-for-error, particularly in the game against Baltimore because losing to the Ravens would help cement their opponent’s positioning. But, the pathway is there. And, we’re talking about a team that has been playing at a very high level for weeks. If you don’t follow the betting markets, you may not be aware that professional wagerers (called “sharps” in industry lingo) have been riding Miami hard. Profitably!