Cap wise: Buffalo

[Feverdream]

A lot of folks here on Finheaven are rightfully concerned about the ascension of Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills, so I decided to take a deeper look into their future.

The first thing that I noticed is that they are heading into some serious cap problems and restructuring. They currently have 520K under the cap. Yep, not even enough to sign their rookie class. Compounding this problem is their biggest asset, Josh Allen is in his last cheap year. Next year, the Bills will either have to use their fifth year option on him (which they will), or go ahead and give him Dac Prescott money.

So... no problem, just restructure some guys? Right?

Well... not so fast. White (26), Diggs (28), and Dawkins (27) are obvious candidate, but Diggs might ask for more money during the process and White just signed his contract. Dawkins is underpaid for a Left Tackle, and all of them would likely ask for more guaranteed money... a problem.

The next few players are all older. Hughes and Addison, their edge rushers are (33) and (34) and neither is signed through next year anyway. Then Poyer and Loutelei (30) and (33)... as well as the just resigned Milano. Again, poor fits for restructuring through extensions.

Beasley 33, Hyde 31, Klein 30... this is an old and cap-strapped team.

So my next thought was... how was their draft last year. I had forgotten.
1st: None
2nd: Espenesa... a guy I liked for an edge-setter. Not a lot of pass rush. I think he had one sack last year. Shaq Lawson type.
3rd: Zach Moss... a committee back. Ick.
4th: Gabriel Davis... this one looks good. Paired with Diggs, this guy may have been their best selection.
Jake Fromm... a Kicker... a WR who went on IR, a special teamer CB

Ick...

So, an older, cap-strapped team... with a number of players due to get more money in 2022.

They'd better win now.

 

[KingHydra]

One thing that sadly shoots holes in this topic; is the fact that the NFL just signed a monster sized TV deal and over the next decade teams are expected to have a much much higher salary cap.

 

[Feverdream]

One thing that sadly shoots holes in this topic; is the fact that the NFL just signed a monster sized TV deal and over the next decade teams are expected to have a much much higher salary cap.

it'll go up about 40M/year... about the same amount that Josh Allen will make.

 

[KingHydra]

it'll go up about 40M/year... about the same amount that Josh Allen will make.

Don't get me wrong, I hope they're F'ed.

 

[The Beatles]

it'll go up about 40M/year... about the same amount that Josh Allen will make.

I think the biggest thing you’re missing is that Buffalo is already good.

They don’t need to sign anyone else.

They can keep who they have and just sign drafted players and be ahead of most of the division.

 

[Feverdream]

I think the biggest thing you’re missing is that Buffalo is already good.

They don’t need to sign anyone else.

They can keep who they have and just sign drafted players and be ahead of most of the division.

My last comment was they'd better win now.

They have quite a few older players and will have to start drafting better than they have lately. With both edges in their 30s, and their safeties about 30... they are going to have to bring in quite a few replacement players, and because of their past spending (and the coming Prescott contract to Allen), they may struggle to continue winning.

A lot of general NFL fans don't bother to look at sustainability, and just assume that teams won't fall off quickly.

 

[Rev Kev]

A lot of folks here on Finheaven are rightfully concerned about the ascension of Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills, so I decided to take a deeper look into their future.

The first thing that I noticed is that they are heading into some serious cap problems and restructuring. They currently have 520K under the cap. Yep, not even enough to sign their rookie class. Compounding this problem is their biggest asset, Josh Allen is in his last cheap year. Next year, the Bills will either have to use their fifth year option on him (which they will), or go ahead and give him Dac Prescott money.

So... no problem, just restructure some guys? Right?

Well... not so fast. White (26), Diggs (28), and Dawkins (27) are obvious candidate, but Diggs might ask for more money during the process and White just signed his contract. Dawkins is underpaid for a Left Tackle, and all of them would likely ask for more guaranteed money... a problem.

The next few players are all older. Hughes and Addison, their edge rushers are (33) and (34) and neither is signed through next year anyway. Then Poyer and Loutelei (30) and (33)... as well as the just resigned Milano. Again, poor fits for restructuring through extensions.

Beasley 33, Hyde 31, Klein 30... this is an old and cap-strapped team.

So my next thought was... how was their draft last year. I had forgotten.
1st: None
2nd: Espenesa... a guy I liked for an edge-setter. Not a lot of pass rush. I think he had one sack last year. Shaq Lawson type.
3rd: Zach Moss... a committee back. Ick.
4th: Gabriel Davis... this one looks good. Paired with Diggs, this guy may have been their best selection.
Jake Fromm... a Kicker... a WR who went on IR, a special teamer CB

Ick...

So, an older, cap-strapped team... with a number of players due to get more money in 2022.

They'd better win now.

What do you mean? Bills cake walk window was last year Miami is going to be the leader with the young Jets and Old Pats bearing down

 

[Rev Kev]

I think the biggest thing you’re missing is that Buffalo is already good.

They don’t need to sign anyone else.

They can keep who they have and just sign drafted players and be ahead of most of the division.

Glad you love your team but they haven’t done anything and the division was gifted to them last year

 

[The Beatles]

Glad you love your team but they haven’t done anything and the division was gifted to them last year

Going to the AFC Championship game isn’t doing anything? Beating the Dolphins 56-28 isn’t doing anything?

 

[Feverdream]

Currently, Josh Allen's cap cost is 6.9M, but in 2022, if he plays under the team 5th year option, he'll make 25M+ (same as whatever the transitional tag would pay)... but the more likely end to this is that he gets a top 5 QB contract (#5 is currently Goff at 33M/year).

So... over half of whatever rise that we see in the salary cap. I'm betting he comes in with a 35M dollar average.

This coupled with their poor draft last year, and their shortage of picks this year, added to the overall age of their team means they are going to have to draft very well, and very wisely for a few years-- something they have not done lately.

Short term, they are pretty good... long term... I have my doubts.

Contrast this with what we've been doing... going into every draft with extra picks, signing players to short term contracts while we hunt for long term answers...

They had our number last year, but I'm predicting that this is merely a blip, and if Allen gets hurt... you could see a Houston-style collapse.

 

[fansinceGWilson]

Currently, Josh Allen's cap cost is 6.9M, but in 2022, if he plays under the team 5th year option, he'll make 25M+ (same as whatever the transitional tag would pay)... but the more likely end to this is that he gets a top 5 QB contract (#5 is currently Goff at 33M/year).

So... over half of whatever rise that we see in the salary cap. I'm betting he comes in with a 35M dollar average.

This coupled with their poor draft last year, and their shortage of picks this year, added to the overall age of their team means they are going to have to draft very well, and very wisely for a few years-- something they have not done lately.

Short term, they are pretty good... long term... I have my doubts.

Contrast this with what we've been doing... going into every draft with extra picks, signing players to short term contracts while we hunt for long term answers...

They had our number last year, but I'm predicting that this is merely a blip, and if Allen gets hurt... you could see a Houston-style collapse.

Not going to disagree, but I think '21/'22 is their window . . . assuming they don't hit on some luck.

 

[dolphan]

is this real cap trouble this time or the kind people pretended was why they wouldnt be able to keep their team together and then they kept Tre White, Dawkins, Milano and anyone else they wanted in a year the cap was down and before the new tv contracts explode the cap?

because the only guys coming up after next year for them that are worth anything are Allen and Edmunds. So cross your fingers for three seasons from now!

theyre gonna get got i tells ya!

 

[1972forever]

A lot of folks here on Finheaven are rightfully concerned about the ascension of Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills, so I decided to take a deeper look into their future.

The first thing that I noticed is that they are heading into some serious cap problems and restructuring. They currently have 520K under the cap. Yep, not even enough to sign their rookie class. Compounding this problem is their biggest asset, Josh Allen is in his last cheap year. Next year, the Bills will either have to use their fifth year option on him (which they will), or go ahead and give him Dac Prescott money.

So... no problem, just restructure some guys? Right?

Well... not so fast. White (26), Diggs (28), and Dawkins (27) are obvious candidate, but Diggs might ask for more money during the process and White just signed his contract. Dawkins is underpaid for a Left Tackle, and all of them would likely ask for more guaranteed money... a problem.

The next few players are all older. Hughes and Addison, their edge rushers are (33) and (34) and neither is signed through next year anyway. Then Poyer and Loutelei (30) and (33)... as well as the just resigned Milano. Again, poor fits for restructuring through extensions.

Beasley 33, Hyde 31, Klein 30... this is an old and cap-strapped team.

So my next thought was... how was their draft last year. I had forgotten.
1st: None
2nd: Espenesa... a guy I liked for an edge-setter. Not a lot of pass rush. I think he had one sack last year. Shaq Lawson type.
3rd: Zach Moss... a committee back. Ick.
4th: Gabriel Davis... this one looks good. Paired with Diggs, this guy may have been their best selection.
Jake Fromm... a Kicker... a WR who went on IR, a special teamer CB

Ick...

So, an older, cap-strapped team... with a number of players due to get more money in 2022.

They'd better win now.

That is basically how the NFL works in the era of the Cap. Teams usually have a window for 3-4 years to try and win a SB and then they have to start cutting a lot of their players or they lose them in free agency. The Dolphins will be in the same situation in 4-5 years if the players they drafted last year and the players they draft the next few years end up being good enough to get large second contracts.

As much as I can’t stand the Patriots. The fact they were able to constantly turn over their roster every few years and yet continue to make the playoffs and win SB’s for nearly 2 decades is amazing. Of course having the best QB in the history of the game all those years certainly helped them maintain
consistency all those years.

 

[juniorseau55]

A lot of folks here on Finheaven are rightfully concerned about the ascension of Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills, so I decided to take a deeper look into their future.

The first thing that I noticed is that they are heading into some serious cap problems and restructuring. They currently have 520K under the cap. Yep, not even enough to sign their rookie class. Compounding this problem is their biggest asset, Josh Allen is in his last cheap year. Next year, the Bills will either have to use their fifth year option on him (which they will), or go ahead and give him Dac Prescott money.

So... no problem, just restructure some guys? Right?

Well... not so fast. White (26), Diggs (28), and Dawkins (27) are obvious candidate, but Diggs might ask for more money during the process and White just signed his contract. Dawkins is underpaid for a Left Tackle, and all of them would likely ask for more guaranteed money... a problem.

The next few players are all older. Hughes and Addison, their edge rushers are (33) and (34) and neither is signed through next year anyway. Then Poyer and Loutelei (30) and (33)... as well as the just resigned Milano. Again, poor fits for restructuring through extensions.

Beasley 33, Hyde 31, Klein 30... this is an old and cap-strapped team.

So my next thought was... how was their draft last year. I had forgotten.
1st: None
2nd: Espenesa... a guy I liked for an edge-setter. Not a lot of pass rush. I think he had one sack last year. Shaq Lawson type.
3rd: Zach Moss... a committee back. Ick.
4th: Gabriel Davis... this one looks good. Paired with Diggs, this guy may have been their best selection.
Jake Fromm... a Kicker... a WR who went on IR, a special teamer CB

Ick...

So, an older, cap-strapped team... with a number of players due to get more money in 2022.

They'd better win now.

Good stuff brother. Makes perfect sense.