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Charles Clay and the Tight End Market

Daytona Fin

Daytona Fin

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This is an article from www.overthecap.com , it is about gauging Julius Thomas and the tight end market but it does include Charles Clay numbers and where he should be at when the negotiations begin.


http://overthecap.com/julius-thomas-tight-end-market/


The Marketplace

Here is what our veteran Tight End market looks like when plotting a player’s current annual contract value vs the value over average I calculated above.
Click to expand...

Using that chart we can apply a rough formula to a general range that the free agents should fall into.

Player Value
Jordan Cameron $6,814,144
Julius Thomas $5,317,305
Owen Daniels $5,217,071
Charles Clay $5,172,278
Jermaine Gresham $4,148,105
Lance Kendricks $2,998,572
Niles Paul $582,974
Click to expand...

Tight-End-Market.png


Clay might be an interesting target because he comes with no buzz and should be well under a reasonable price. He is also a bit younger. Gresham and Kendricks are players that have to sell their situations as negatives if they hope to increase their asking price.

But as is usually the case in free agency, you always should proceed with caution for questionable players where projected improvements are reasons for big price increases. The Broncos have the best understanding of Thomas’ value to their team since he has played in their offense but for anyone else it is nothing more than a vision. That’s the same vision that landed Percy Harvin and Mike Wallace huge contracts that their teams couldn’t wait to get rid of. Buyer beware.
Click to expand...
 
well if it's true julius thomas already turned down $8 mil per to stay with denver i'd throw those numbers out the window
 
Clay should be in the $4.5-6m range. I don't think anyone is going to throw nonsensical money at him next month, but this team has to make it imperative in not overpaying for free agents anymore. Take care of your own, and I do believe we will resign him, but anything over $6m is too generous.
 
if julius thomas is getting $10 mil per i'd say any $4.5 mil per for charles clay when he has suitors is out the window
 
If you can get Gresham cheaper than Clay, why on earth wouldn't you do that .....

Clay is not better than Gresham ..... Not even close .....
 
PHINANALYST said:
If you can get Gresham cheaper than Clay, why on earth wouldn't you do that .....

Clay is not better than Gresham ..... Not even close .....
Click to expand...

i disagree with that...for miami he is...gresham is dion sims in our offense
 
I've been projecting Clay a 4/20M. I wouldn't go higher than that, think his market is probably $4M-$5M annually. Julius isn't sniffing $10M...if I had to guess, $7-$8M. I think Cameron is looking at $6-7M. Daniels is a Bronco.
 
Julius has already turned down 8 per from the broncos...if hes a 9 mil guy i think clays gonna be north of 5 mil...maybe 6 to 6.5...we will see soon thats for sure...he will get more than gresham
 
JTC111 said:
I like what I saw from Sims late in the season. I think there's a decent possibility that he might surprise us next year.
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i agree with this, he is coming into his own. But I also like what I see in Clay a lot too, and having them both on the team I think is solid for our TE position. I would rather keep it that way.
 
Theres nothing wrong with sims but hes a primary in line tight end...hes a jermaine gresham type but dirt cheap right now and with upside still..but not defense must account for at all times upside
 
hooshoops said:
Julius has already turned down 8 per from the broncos...
Click to expand...

Is that the offer the Broncos made back in July? If so Thomas will probably regret not taking them up on that offer.

The Broncos had offered Julius Thomas a multi-year contract worth $8 million a year back in July — a deal that would have made him the third-highest paid tight end behind only Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski.
Click to expand...
http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_27553397/briefs-julius-thomas-test-free-agency
 
Daytona Fin said:
Is that the offer the Broncos made back in July? If so Thomas will probably regret not taking them up on that offer.


http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_27553397/briefs-julius-thomas-test-free-agency
Click to expand...

Well that could help but dont put anything past the oakland raiders when it comes to rewriting the market on a position...i cant believe he turned that money down unless there was no real guaranteed coin in it...

I thought denver offered him that recently thus i was thinking he must know someone else is willing to pay more...you guys may be right he may regret it

Then again if teams wont commit to cameron for medical clay becomes the next guy they target
 
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