Chiefs open as a one-point favorite over Dolphins | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Chiefs open as a one-point favorite over Dolphins

A

Awsi Dooger

Super Donator
Club Member
Joined
Feb 8, 2005
Messages
10,899
Reaction score
7,020
Location
Las Vegas
At the Stardust tonight. About what I expected. The game figured to be pick 'em until the Dolphins flopped today. Total is 42.5

Don't ask me. I generally do poorly with new regimes and today was no exception. I beat the crowd taking Miami +5 at Tampa Bay. This morning, as many here predicted last Sunday, the bettors stormed in on the Dolphins, taking the pointspread all the way down to 3. Those are key numbers, 4 and 3.5, so it took plenty of forfeited cash to dump the number down to 3.

I just want to thank Chris Weinke for bailing out my day, turning two losses into two winners via one play in the last minute TD at Detroit, and a 21-20 Panther win after he replaced an injured Jake Delhomme. I already had Carolina plus 1, and this morning the bettors plowed the total down from 42 to 40, enabling 21-20 to be plenty.

Here is a link, listing some spreads for tomorrow and next week at bottom, and the closing numbers from today at top: http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/

On edit: sorry, the website on that link just cleared the closing pointspreads from today, about 40 minutes after I posted this thread. The other significant late moves this morning, besides Miami, were Carolina from 1 point underdog to 2.5 point favorite and Atlanta up from -4.5 earlier in the week to as high as -6.5. The big moves lost.
 
dominizzo said:
U think Chiefs Will Win?
Click to expand...

Apparently I'm not in sync with these teams. I had Washington +6.5 today and Miami +5, so I blew bets in games involving the Chiefs and Dolphins. At least I had Washington +3 in the first half and that won, but first half bets are supposed to win.
 
Awsi Dooger said:
This morning, as many here predicted last Sunday, the bettors stormed in on the Dolphins, taking the pointspread all the way down to 3.
Click to expand...

actually the numbers (% of money on the spread and ml) did not change much at all from open to close. it did move in favor of the bucs, but only minimally and not enough to warrant any line movement. certainly not 1.5 to 2 pts worth. the line moved because they found out caddy was going to be inactive.
 
Kansas City may very well be our toughest opponent on our schedule to be perfectly honest, but at least we have a shot because we're at home. I think a one point favorite is fair maybe even a bit generous.
 
thecoordinator said:
actually the numbers (% of money on the spread and ml) did not change much at all from open to close. it did move in favor of the bucs, but only minimally and not enough to warrant any line movement. certainly not 1.5 to 2 pts worth. the line moved because they found out caddy was going to be inactive.
Click to expand...

I didn't see that scenario unfold. You're talking about a coordinated line move, when the head linesmaking firm -- Las Vegas Sports Consultants -- sends out an alert to its customers advising to change the line to a specific number based on an injury or some other factor. This morning I looked at the Don Best screen, which lists all the major sportsbooks and offshore joints, at work and saw the number on our game slowly go from 4 or 4.5 down to 3.5 and then 3. Most places closed 3, but some were 3.5. My impression was it was an opinion taking it down, not moving it on air due to an adjustment. We get a beep when there's an adjustment, literally a high pitched beep calling attention to the game and the line move. Admittedly, I'm working at that time and don't always know the specifics until later in the week.
 
I tend to agree that KC may well be our toughest opponent. Though they run the ball extremely well (our stregnth) they can also throw extremely well (our weakness, it seems). They have an elite OL (top 2, MAYBE Philly or Pitt can challenge for best overall but i doubt it) and we havent been getting pressure on the QB since the Denver game. And defensively its the pass that is their weakness not the run which is the opposite of where we need it to play. Its a must win game and imo KC may be starting to roll as theyre capable of doing.

I wont be touching the spread but the over @ 42.5 seems very reasonable.
 
Boik14 said:
I wont be touching the spread but the over @ 42.5 seems very reasonable.
Click to expand...

I agree, Boik. The minute they put up the numbers at the Stardust, I looked for the Dolphin game and the 42.5 jumped out at me. In fact, I immediately turned to my friend and said, "Isn't that total too low?" I thought it should be in the 44 range. Those are key numbers for totals, because they encompass logical scores like 23-20 or 27-17, etc.

I'm admittedly much more of an under player. When I bet over it's like the spreads, great in the first half then die post-halftime. My only over today fit that pattern, 28 points by middle of the 2nd quarter of the Panthers/Lions game, then I didn't sneak it over 40 until the final 35 seconds.
 
Ive got two tickets for this game, if anyone is going to be in the area this weekend. Please let me know if anyone is interested in going. Tickets are in sec 445 row 26 seats 23 and 24
apa64che@verizon.net
 
Awsi Dooger said:
At the Stardust tonight. About what I expected. The game figured to be pick 'em until the Dolphins flopped today. Total is 42.5

Don't ask me. I generally do poorly with new regimes and today was no exception. I beat the crowd taking Miami +5 at Tampa Bay. This morning, as many here predicted last Sunday, the bettors stormed in on the Dolphins, taking the pointspread all the way down to 3. Those are key numbers, 4 and 3.5, so it took plenty of forfeited cash to dump the number down to 3.

I just want to thank Chris Weinke for bailing out my day, turning two losses into two winners via one play in the last minute TD at Detroit, and a 21-20 Panther win after he replaced an injured Jake Delhomme. I already had Carolina plus 1, and this morning the bettors plowed the total down from 42 to 40, enabling 21-20 to be plenty.

Here is a link, listing some spreads for tomorrow and next week at bottom, and the closing numbers from today at top: http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/

On edit: sorry, the website on that link just cleared the closing pointspreads from today, about 40 minutes after I posted this thread. The other significant late moves this morning, besides Miami, were Carolina from 1 point underdog to 2.5 point favorite and Atlanta up from -4.5 earlier in the week to as high as -6.5. The big moves lost.
Click to expand...

lol - I also won the carolina game but with the lions plus 1 1/2. went 7 of 8 on Sunday which made up for saturday when i lost 5 games in the last minute
 
adamprez2003 said:
lol - I also won the carolina game but with the lions plus 1 1/2. went 7 of 8 on Sunday which made up for saturday when i lost 5 games in the last minute
Click to expand...

That's great, adamprez2003! Mike O went 7 of 8 overall for the weekend. There was another poster here who won with the opposite side of me on Saturday. I had the Canes in the first half and he had Temple in the game.

I really didn't like that Carolina game over, but I've been rolling with Carolina and over since late last year so I had to continue. Turned out it was very fortunate to go over. At one point in the second quarter there were 8 first downs in the game, but 28 points scored. Delhomme threw two picks for TDs.

When it was 3rd and goal at the 3 with Heinke at QB inside a minute remaining, I literally walked out of the room and didn't watch. My co-worker screamed TD so I ran back to watch the replay. Then I got another comeback cover minutes later when Eli Manning hit Schockey to send the Giants/Dallas game into OT. I had the opening number, +4 so that turned into another winner.

I would have had a bad Sunday minus those two escapes. The Redskin game ticked me off. I won the first half but even then Washington botched several chances, including a Brunell fumble deep in KC territory. Then in the 2nd half another Skin fumble deep in KC's end was returned 80 yards for a TD. I know you buy 1/2 points occasionally. I couldn't do that in the Redskin game because I only found a +6.5 at the Mirage, and that chicken bleep joint doesn't sell half points. Otherwise, I would have escaped with a push.
 
Awsi Dooger said:
That's great, adamprez2003! MikeO went 7 or 8 overall for the weekend. There was another poster here who won with the opposite side of me on Saturday. I had the Canes in the first half and he had Temple in the game.

I really didn't like that Carolina game over, but I've been rolling with Carolina and over since late last year so I had to continue. Turned out it was very fortunate to go over. At one point in the second quarter there were 8 first downs in the game, but 28 points scored. Delhomme threw two picks for TDs.

When it was 3rd and goal at the 3 with Heinke at QB inside a minute remaining, I literally walked out of the room and didn't watch. My co-worker screamed TD so I ran back to watch the replay. Then I got another comeback cover minutes later when Eli Manning hit Schockey to send the Giants/Dallas game into OT. I had the opening number, +4 so that turned into another winner.

I would have had a bad Sunday minus those two escapes. The Redskin game ticked me off. I won the first half but even then Washington botched several chances, including a Brunell fumble deep in KC territory. Then in the 2nd half another Skin fumble deep in KC's end was returned 80 yards for a TD. I know you buy 1/2 points occasionally. I couldn't do that in the Redskin game because I only found a +6.5 at the Mirage, and that chicken bleep joint doesn't sell half points. Otherwise, I would have escaped with a push.
Click to expand...

The Giant game was my one loss but it was my fault. I took the Giants but with a money line instead of the points. Saturday was horrendous for me not so much monetarily so much as how I lost the games that I did. The kicker was I had Michigan minus 3, they go in with the winning touchdown and I thought I escaped with a push in that I thought that in regulation you are forced to go through the process of kicking the extra point even if its meaningless. Then the fans stormed the field and a big OH NO escaped my lips. Needless to say no extra point was attempted.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom