LeftCoastFinFan
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I like Chambers, and I still think he has a lot of potential. Maybe only as a #2 slot guy, maybe as a #1 with a solid running game and a receiving threat on the other side of the line.
BUT... I am getting sick of people that keep making excuses for him while refusing to acknowledge the facts that: 1) He is maddeningly inconsistent, making the great catch and then letting the critical 3rd down pass bounce off his hands; and 2) he drops *a lot* of balls that should be caught, regardless of who is throwing them. More than he should as a #1, elite WR.
So when I read this in Football Outsiders, I thought i would go ahead and post it. It, unlike some of the overly emotional CC fans, deals with facts. Interesting analysis.
"Chambers’ name has come up a lot at FO over the past 12 months. Why? He’s a fascinating player with the skill set to match, and because the gap between his perceived value and his actual value is so high. Even when his repeated struggles are pointed out, many Dolphins fans will offer him excuses about this year’s model of Dolphins quarterback, even after the starting quarterback count throwing to Chambers touched about 35 this season. It’s worth noting that Chambers had a hand in 74 incompletions this year! That’s 18 and a half drives! That’s two games worth of nothing but incompletions to Chris Chambers on offense.
One of the talking points about Chambers, especially earlier this season, is that he’s a second-half player and would break out in the second half of 2006. He developed this rep after 2005, when he parlayed a big second half into a Pro Bowl berth. If you look at Chambers’ career, he has consistently done better in the second half of the season; he’s caught more passes in Weeks 9-17 than he has in Weeks 1-8 every one of his six campaigns, averaging 10.83 catches more per season. The average NFL player, meanwhile, averages slightly over 2.7 catches more in Weeks 9-17 than they do in Weeks 1-8, which has much to do with the extra week contained within 9-17. NFL players average about 2.07 catches per week.
Do the defenders of Chambers have a point? Do second half players really exist? There’s an easy way to find out — get out the pro-football-reference database again, and do another mini-study.
Testing the theory took separating the performance of all wide receivers from 1996 through 2005 into Weeks 1-8 and 9-17, taking out players who played fewer than 14 games (since a player performing better or worse in a half of the season due to injury in the other half isn’t the argument). 18 guys qualified for the study and had 21 or more receptions in the second half of the season than they did in the first. That year’s performance is Split1; the same split in the year after is Split2.
NameYearSplit1Split2
T.J. Houshmandzadeh20042910
Tai Streets200229-1
Chris Chambers2005263
Koren Robinson20022511
Muhsin Muhammad200424-6
Mike Pritchard199824-2
Ricky Proehl1998244
Keyshawn Johnson1998238
Keenan McCardell2001233
Jimmy Smith199923-7
Rod Smith199923-6
Lee Evans20042212
Bill Schroeder20002217
Reggie Brown200521-6
Eddie Kennison2004214
Johnnie Morton199921-1
Muhsin Muhammad20032124
Marcus Robinson200321-3
Split2 Average2.89
( sorry, this table didn't come out very good, so here is the link to view it:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/02/14/ramblings/four-downs/4952/ )
When you remember that the NFL average improvement in Weeks 9-17 for a given year is 2.71, and notice that the only player who appears twice on this list is Muhsin Muhammad, it seems that this idea is a bit of a myth. "
Chambers needs to improve or resign himself to just being an average WR, and to being paid like one.
:dolphins:
BUT... I am getting sick of people that keep making excuses for him while refusing to acknowledge the facts that: 1) He is maddeningly inconsistent, making the great catch and then letting the critical 3rd down pass bounce off his hands; and 2) he drops *a lot* of balls that should be caught, regardless of who is throwing them. More than he should as a #1, elite WR.
So when I read this in Football Outsiders, I thought i would go ahead and post it. It, unlike some of the overly emotional CC fans, deals with facts. Interesting analysis.
"Chambers’ name has come up a lot at FO over the past 12 months. Why? He’s a fascinating player with the skill set to match, and because the gap between his perceived value and his actual value is so high. Even when his repeated struggles are pointed out, many Dolphins fans will offer him excuses about this year’s model of Dolphins quarterback, even after the starting quarterback count throwing to Chambers touched about 35 this season. It’s worth noting that Chambers had a hand in 74 incompletions this year! That’s 18 and a half drives! That’s two games worth of nothing but incompletions to Chris Chambers on offense.
One of the talking points about Chambers, especially earlier this season, is that he’s a second-half player and would break out in the second half of 2006. He developed this rep after 2005, when he parlayed a big second half into a Pro Bowl berth. If you look at Chambers’ career, he has consistently done better in the second half of the season; he’s caught more passes in Weeks 9-17 than he has in Weeks 1-8 every one of his six campaigns, averaging 10.83 catches more per season. The average NFL player, meanwhile, averages slightly over 2.7 catches more in Weeks 9-17 than they do in Weeks 1-8, which has much to do with the extra week contained within 9-17. NFL players average about 2.07 catches per week.
Do the defenders of Chambers have a point? Do second half players really exist? There’s an easy way to find out — get out the pro-football-reference database again, and do another mini-study.
Testing the theory took separating the performance of all wide receivers from 1996 through 2005 into Weeks 1-8 and 9-17, taking out players who played fewer than 14 games (since a player performing better or worse in a half of the season due to injury in the other half isn’t the argument). 18 guys qualified for the study and had 21 or more receptions in the second half of the season than they did in the first. That year’s performance is Split1; the same split in the year after is Split2.
NameYearSplit1Split2
T.J. Houshmandzadeh20042910
Tai Streets200229-1
Chris Chambers2005263
Koren Robinson20022511
Muhsin Muhammad200424-6
Mike Pritchard199824-2
Ricky Proehl1998244
Keyshawn Johnson1998238
Keenan McCardell2001233
Jimmy Smith199923-7
Rod Smith199923-6
Lee Evans20042212
Bill Schroeder20002217
Reggie Brown200521-6
Eddie Kennison2004214
Johnnie Morton199921-1
Muhsin Muhammad20032124
Marcus Robinson200321-3
Split2 Average2.89
( sorry, this table didn't come out very good, so here is the link to view it:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/02/14/ramblings/four-downs/4952/ )
When you remember that the NFL average improvement in Weeks 9-17 for a given year is 2.71, and notice that the only player who appears twice on this list is Muhsin Muhammad, it seems that this idea is a bit of a myth. "
Chambers needs to improve or resign himself to just being an average WR, and to being paid like one.
:dolphins:
