Chris Perkins: Step by Step guide to fixing Fins Culture

[danmarino7051]

I actually did some research about 6 months ago looking at comparing Tua to other "elites" like Mahomes, Jackson, Burrow and Allen.

I studied the data available within the McDaniel era...looking at the '22 - '24 seasons.

I looked at how well the offenses of those teams scored against all the defenses they faced (good & bad).

To address the question you're asking, I was able to highlight the better (scoring) defenses and measure how far above the norm those "elite offenses" were...

+6.7 ppg - Bills
+6.5 ppg - Bengals
+5.3 ppg - Ravens
+4.9 ppg - Chiefs
+3.3 ppg - Dolphins

So the Dolphins are scoring more than the average against "elite defenses" but they are not as good as the best teams in those difficult situations.

I do suspect that Tua has something to do with this. I find it hard to believe that Tua will ever be the best QB option in the most adverse physical circumstances.

Make of it what you will.


...and for the record:

-1.7 ppg - Chargers

Yes, that's negative, as in, below the average.

Also, the Dolphins are 2-1 against the Chargers since 2020 and with Tua at QB. Tua had 110, 107, and a 65 PR in those three games. And the offense scored 36, 29, and 17 points in those 3 games.

 

[IMAWriter]

Brewer also had Eich and Jones as his guards all year…Williams had Eich sometimes but he also had Hunt etc, so that has to be factored in to their performance. Let’s judge Brewer after he gets a chance to play next to Savaiinaea and Daniels.

He’s a smallish center, and was average pretty much in pass pro. Williams was individually better in Pass pro.. at least based on folks like PFF. Evidence is.. overall…look how the run game suffered when Williams was injured.

 

[PhinFan1968]

In 2023, the Dolphins had 6 games in Dec/Jan. with 3 against teams with defenses ranked 1st, 4th, and 5th. (50% against top 5 defenses). Tua had a 98, 71, and 62 PR’s in those games.

Buffalo had 5 games in Dec/Jan with 2 against teams with the 2nd and 5th ranked defenses. (40% against top 5 defenses). Allen had a 68 and 89 PR against those 2.

Tua had a 98 against Dallas and Allen had an 89 against them.

You can nit-pick and parse data all day long, doesn't change the fact the Dolphins suck ass against strong competition.

Comparing stats for one team against a particular team to another team vs that same team, is naive.

 

[Mello Yello]

Do you have each QB’s respective passer ratings in those games. I posted a graph showing EPA for each QB drafted in 2020 against top 10 passing defenses and Tua was second behind Burrow.

I don't have the data for everybody (e.g. Hurts, Love, etc.), especially not NFC guys, but here are the average passer ratings of the AFC elites in those games against the top defenses.

99.5 - Burrow
95.0 - Jackson
93.1 - Mahomes
90.9 - Tagovailoa
84.3 - Allen

A couple other notes:
The top defenses were defined by allowing fewer than 20ppg. For whatever reason I didn't go by rank.
This data only went through wk-11 of 2024.

 

[zullo1]

I think the high-level leadership is really making what we'd call business / strategic decisions. By defining the priorities of the company, there exist trickle down effects that shape and re-shape the roles, responsibilities and ultimately the experiences of the employees.

In that analogy, the high-level leadership of a football team (Ownership, the FO & HC) are defining the priorities.

An Owner who's actively involved may decide he wants a Franchise QB no matter what.

A Front Office acting on that directive may decide to tank & target a QB with the first pick.

The HC may be selected to optimize the development of that QB. He will decide what the players need to learn and will hire coaches to teach that, coordinating among the coaches what is being delivered to the team.


I agree that leadership has a profound effect on what we see / experience as fans, but I also understand that the motivation of the MLB isn't coming from his intimate relationship with the Owner, the GM or the HC.

In the end, everything matters and it's a game of momentum. You want your MLB feeling like he's invested because he believes the team can win. There was no lack of effort on the '22 team that surged into the Playoffs. That defense nearly won us a Playoff game against Buffalo on the road.

People lose faith when things start failing. The constant offensive injuries to the QB, OL and more lately the WRs does a lot to disrupt the momentum that keeps players in line.

All good points!

 

[danmarino7051]

You can nit-pick and parse data all day long, doesn't change the fact the Dolphins suck ass against strong competition.

Comparing stats for one team against a particular team to another team vs that same team, is naive.

I’m not comparing teams vs teams.

Tua has most definitely not “sucked”. And comparing individual performances against like teams is a great way to determine individual success/performance in a team game.

I mean, I’m not even sure what your post is about? You literally brought up an entirely different subject and got angry about it. lol

 

[danmarino7051]

I don't have the data for everybody (e.g. Hurts, Love, etc.), especially not NFC guys, but here are the average passer ratings of the AFC elites in those games against the top defenses.

99.5 - Burrow
95.0 - Jackson
93.1 - Mahomes
90.9 - Tagovailoa
84.3 - Allen

A couple other notes:
The top defenses were defined by allowing fewer than 20ppg. For whatever reason I didn't go by rank.
This data only went through wk-11 of 2024.

But I was told Allen is unstoppable and “tough” because the Bills beat good teams? It’s pretty telling that Tua is closer to Mahomes and Jackson than Allen is to Tua.

 

[Mello Yello]

But I was told Allen is unstoppable and “tough” because the Bills beat good teams? It’s pretty telling that Tua is closer to Mahomes and Jackson than Allen is to Tua.

Yeah, I was surprised by Allen there but I think in his defense this may be an issue with Josh Allen not being a passer.

It may be the case that he simply turns into a RB in a lot of these scenarios. I remember also doing a survey comparing rushing tendencies of Josh Allen and there was a notable uptick in the Playoffs.

So we probably have to look beyond just passing stats to quantify Josh Allen. In fact, I think it's fair to say that we can see the Buffalo Bills taking a much more active approach in the regular season to having Allen protect himself.

Two years ago, Josh Allen's in-season rushing suddenly dropped 30%, where it's stayed since. Meanwhile, his in-season 31-yds/gm rushing average (across 34 games) jumped by 60% up to 50-yds/gm in the Playoffs (across 5 games).

...and yeah, Josh Allen also ran for 5 TDs in those 5 Playoff games, LOL.

So, if we agree that Josh Allen is exceptional in this instance and not captured entirely by passer rating alone, I think it's fair to say that Tua's offense is absolutely lagging behind the elite offenses in the most adverse circumstances.

Tua & Miami are absolutely, quantifiably above average against top competition, but they are not really among the elites (if you ask me). The stats would seem to bear this out, as well.

The argument over whether an above-average guy is "good enough" is not one we can settle. It becomes a question of what else is there to help carry the team to victory.

My arguments have always been that:
(1) The low-hanging fruit in Miami are the OL, rushing attack and defense. Those should be fixed regardless of QB.
(2) The constant QB injuries make all this argument about Tua a moot point.

I think Tua's done as soon as he can be replaced unless something major happens in '25 or '26 to change that. He's a transition QB in the same way Alex Smith and Jimmy Garoppolo were for their respective teams. Alex Smith led the NFL in passer rating and was immediately replaced. Jimmy G got all the way to the Super Bowl...same thing.

I don't agree with the vitriolic language aimed at Tua but the crowd isn't wrong in this case. There is a glass ceiling and too much needs to go right both with and around Tua Tagovailoa for him to be the long-term answer.

 

[danmarino7051]

Yeah, I was surprised by Allen there but I think in his defense this may be an issue with Josh Allen not being a passer.

It may be the case that he simply turns into a RB in a lot of these scenarios. I remember also doing a survey comparing rushing tendencies of Josh Allen and there was a notable uptick in the Playoffs.

So we probably have to look beyond just passing stats to quantify Josh Allen. In fact, I think it's fair to say that we can see the Buffalo Bills taking a much more active approach in the regular season to having Allen protect himself.

Two years ago, Josh Allen's in-season rushing suddenly dropped 30%, where it's stayed since. Meanwhile, his in-season 31-yds/gm rushing average (across 34 games) jumped by 60% up to 50-yds/gm in the Playoffs (across 5 games).

...and yeah, Josh Allen also ran for 5 TDs in those 5 Playoff games, LOL.

So, if we agree that Josh Allen is exceptional in this instance and not captured entirely by passer rating alone, I think it's fair to say that Tua's offense is absolutely lagging behind the elite offenses in the most adverse circumstances.

Tua & Miami are absolutely, quantifiably above average against top competition, but they are not really among the elites (if you ask me). The stats would seem to bear this out, as well.

The argument over whether an above-average guy is "good enough" is not one we can settle. It becomes a question of what else is there to help carry the team to victory.

My arguments have always been that:
(1) The low-hanging fruit in Miami are the OL, rushing attack and defense. Those should be fixed regardless of QB.
(2) The constant QB injuries make all this argument about Tua a moot point.

I think Tua's done as soon as he can be replaced unless something major happens in '25 or '26 to change that. He's a transition QB in the same way Alex Smith and Jimmy Garoppolo were for their respective teams. Alex Smith led the NFL in passer rating and was immediately replaced. Jimmy G got all the way to the Super Bowl...same thing.

I don't agree with the vitriolic language aimed at Tua but the crowd isn't wrong in this case. There is a glass ceiling and too much needs to go right both with and around Tua Tagovailoa for him to be the long-term answer.

I agree 100% with Tua’s injury concerns and I’ve pushed that the Dolphins needed to start looking for his replacement last year.

However, if Tua has been able to be considered alongside the “elite” QB’s, even though he’s been surrounded by inferior OL play, the inability to count of a rushing attack, and subpar defenses that says something about how good he really is. Alex Smith and Jimmy G had great teams behind them.

 

[FRB1967]

That's a very important question. Playing from behind is not the same as playing with a lead, for both the offense and the defense. We must also factor in the health and general quality of the OL at the time, and the presence of a running game. Add in an offensive system that is difficult to communicate in road environments, and it's a wonder that the stats don't look worse.

" an offensive system that is difficult to communicate in road environments" I think this is the key and is overlooked by most. I'd be very curious how top teams do on the road against each other. Most want to say we suck because of our playoff loss on the road in KC when it was super cold, but don't say anything about Buffalo and Baltimore losing to them at home in those same playoffs.

 

[Bumpus]

Step one: Drink the beer!

 

[hoops]

In response The Herald recently moved their culture reporter to covering the Dolphins. True story. Strange days indeed for the SoFl sports media

"C. Isaiah Smalls II is a sports and culture writer who covers the Miami Dolphins. In his previous capacity at the Miami Herald, he was the race and culture reporter "

https://www.miamiherald.com/profile/231244783

What the hell’s a race and culture reporter?

 

[hoops]

Forget i asked I found it.

 

[derek]

" an offensive system that is difficult to communicate in road environments" I think this is the key and is overlooked by most. I'd be very curious how top teams do on the road against each other. Most want to say we suck because of our playoff loss on the road in KC when it was super cold, but don't say anything about Buffalo and Baltimore losing to them at home in those same playoffs.

True. I reckon a basic reliable running game (and the relatively simple associated plays) is a contributing factor.

 

[hoops]

" an offensive system that is difficult to communicate in road environments" I think this is the key and is overlooked by most. I'd be very curious how top teams do on the road against each other. Most want to say we suck because of our playoff loss on the road in KC when it was super cold, but don't say anything about Buffalo and Baltimore losing to them at home in those same playoffs.

Couple that with a qb who doesn’t really have the arm to power thru elements makes for some pretty limited gameplans in the passing game at least.