ckparrothead
Premium Member
First off, I need to explain something. This is about my draft experience, as it relates to the Miami Dolphins' draft. This is not here to say that this draft class will suck, or it will be great. Either is possible.
But the fact of the matter is, if you're going to go through with the endeavor of grading a draft the day after it happened, which is an inherently flawed concept, you have to base it on something. And the best thing I can base it on is which players I really liked heading into the draft, and which ones I did not like. That's it, period. That's all it is about.
And any draft grade has to be that way, wholly subjective in nature. People can get cutesy trying to pretend they can come up with a draft analysis that is objective, but that is a misguided venture. It is misguided because every draft pick by every team has a valid and cogent rationale behind it.
Every single pick. Even Michael Mitchell, Mel Kiper's 73rd rated safety, going in the second round to the Raiders, has a completely valid rationale behind the pick (supposedly it wasn't just the Raiders onto him but the Bears as well). These guys aren't well paid, and they don't spend countless, tireless hours traveling on the road, watching film, in meetings, conducting interviews, investigating every possible angle with every possible player...to sit down on draft day and then just make a pick that "makes no sense". It just doesn't happen that way. And when a wannabe draft grader says something like that, if any personnel guy reads it, I'm sure he believes that draft grader is an effing idiot and a hack.
Let's look at an example. One of my favorite backs in the draft, Rashad Jennings, went all the way down into the 7th round where he was taken by the Jacksonville Jaguars. Why he fell that far, I really don't know. Yet, draft graders out there are going to say things like "The Jaguars drafted for value in the 7th round, and got Rashad Jennings who could be a steal." Or, take another example, Walter Football's review of the Chris Clemons pick. "The Dolphins finally decided not to reach and draft for value instead."
Can anyone tell me what is wrong with that type of analysis? It pretends that there's one magical consensus big board out there, and that the draft grader knows exactly how it reads. The team finally stopped reaching, and took value instead? According to whom? According to the team, John Nalbone was valued higher than Chris Clemons, and Brian Hartline valued above both. Really, language like this is just meant to obfuscate the truth, which is that by handing out a draft grade you are pitting YOUR evaluation of the players against THEIR evaluation of the players.
And boy is that ever an arrogant thing to do.
Luckily, I don't think I am often accused of being very humble. But, at least I'm honest.
And my honest opinion is that I was NOT a happy camper on either day of the draft. My grades are levered as best they can be toward what I was feeling right away when the picks were announced, my first impression, before I was given time to put on my aqua colored sunglasses and start to justify the pick.
Quick note on my grading system: I believe that "A" grades are handed out a little too easily for my tastes. People seem to skip the "B" and "D" in their analyses, skipping straight to "A" and "F". Or, in the case of a fan, everything bad gets "C" and everything good gets an "A", lol. I believe that above average is "B" and below average is "D" and that most things tend to be average which is "C" and something has to be truly inspired to get an "A" from me and similarly truly terrible to get an "F" from me. Pretty simple. What it means, though is that sometimes a certain pick didn't even really have an "A" as a possibility. For instance, I'm not sure if I saw an "A" available at #25, although I would have had to think long and hard about giving Hakeem Nicks that grade, had we taken him.
Pick by Pick Analysis
#25 Overall: CB Vontae Davis, Illinois
Grade: D
My Best Values: WR Hakeem Nicks, LB Rey Maualuga, LB Clay Matthews, RB Chris Wells
It could have been worse, which is why this did not get an "F" grade. But, I don't think I should honestly grade it a "C" either, because my emotional reaction to the pick as it happened definitely belied a feeling that this was not in any way a "so-so" pick. Are there things to like about the pick? Sure. But there were things I didn't like about the pick, as well. First off, I think this CB class is a very weak class overall. I think the whole class lacks requisite speed and athleticism, and the few that have it are highly flawed in their own ways. So from a macro standpoint, account me unexcited that the Dolphins dipped into a flawed CB class with their first pick in the 2009 NFL Draft. The two biggest criticisms of Vontae, aside from the macro argument, center around character and his inconsistent play in 2008. From a character standpoint, I want to make sure that it is clear that Vontae Davis is NOT a Percy Harvin. Percy Harvin has actual, documented things in his past (and present) that scare teams. It isn't just the rumor of bad interviews and punched coaches, etc. Davis doesn't have that kind of substantiation behind any claims against his character. Ron Zook has attempted to dispel those rumors at every turn, noting that Davis is a gym rat and does everything he can to be the best football player possible. It should be noted that Ron Zook and Jeff Ireland worked together on the Kansas City Chiefs, and have a good relationship with each other, and so it should be taken as a positive sign for Vontae that the team that took him is one that is likely to get Zook's honest opinion of the kid.
The character flaws may have originated when Scouts Inc. said that they had been told by multiple sources that Vontae lacks proper respect for his coaches, and works hard when he is in the mood to do so. The character concerns were sharpened by a completely false report that Vontae Davis tested positive for marijuana at the NFL Combine. Still, other things about Vontae Davis do not help to allay these fears. First off, can I just say that I found it hilariously ironic that in response to a question during a conference call with Miami media about his reaction to people raising character concerns about him, Vontae referred to himself in the third-person. Nice. Second, and this is something that Vontae can't help but, he is Vernon Davis' brother and Vernon is not doing his little brother any favors when it comes to issues of character. Third, was it me or did it take Vontae and his agent a long time to respond to the allegations by NFLDraftBible that Davis tested positive for marijuana? Contrast this with Clay Matthews and his agent, who immediately shouted loud and clear that there is no possible way this allegation could be true, as if to say "I haven't touched a steroid in my entire life so unless someone injedcted me while I was sleeping, I know for a fact this allegation is untrue." Maybe this is just a completely false, arbitrary and invalid perception but the measured and delayed responses of both Vontae Davis and Brian Cushing to the allegations looked like the equivalent of a guy being asked if he cheated on his wife with a certain woman and then looking up and thinking about it for a few seconds before answering. A fourth thing that doesn't help the perception of Vontae Davis as a character problem is that he got benched by his own coaching staff at Illinois for inconsistent play. Nobody likes an underachiever, ask Michael Johnson.
So, what is the truth about Vontae's character? I think that where there is smoke, there is fire. But luckily, probably not Percy Harvin's bonfire. I believe Vontae is getting killed by someone (or maybe multiple people) on the Illinois coaching staff. But, Ron Zook is a very recruiting-minded head coach and he will go to bat for any player that makes it all the way through his program and into the top areas of the NFL Draft. He has to. Those players are a feather in the cap of a program trying to scratch and claw their way up the Big Ten ladder. Urban Meyer, from Championship team Florida, can recruit players in his sleep and therefore he can get away with a little more honesty about Percy Harvin, saying that "I just hope he goes where the coaching staff is strong". I don't think Scouts Inc. picked that nugget about Vontae's character out of thin air. Nor do I think Tom Marino, who was a highly regarded scout for decades with the Rams and Saints, just decided make stuff up when he noted about Vontae Davis that "I’ve been told by far too many veteran scouts that he is a DeAngelo Hall clone who is not easy to coach".
So, I don't think I am way off for criticizing the pick on the basis of character. He works hard and he's a gym rat, but he's an underachiever and there are an awful lot of scouts and others whose job it is to ferret out this information suggesting that he has attitude and coachability issues, and getting benched by his coaches certainly fans those flames. And that, by the way, would be my second criticism of Vontae Davis. That being, his inconsistency on the field which led to his being a noted underachiever and having been benched by his coaches. Neither criticism alone would have prevented me from withholding the #25 overall pick on a player with as much talent as Davis has, after all I openly espoused the underachieving Michael Johnson for the #25 pick not too long ago. But, when you marry both of them together, that's why I had a problem with the pick. That is why I consumed an egregious amount of liquor immediately after the Dolphins selected him.
Now, that said, on the positive side, Davis is one of the very few corners in this draft that has ACTUAL pro physical ability. He is nearly 6' tall, weighing over 200 pounds, has genuine 4.40 type speed (an accolade that is often thrown around but not often proven) with great jumping ability, excellent agility, and he is a physical and strong football player that attacks the ball carrier. He is smart, having scored I believe in the mid-20's on the wonderlic, and he bench pressed the 225 pound bar 25 times, which is absolutely superlative for a cornerback. He has true Pro Bowl tangibles and intelligence, if he could only get out of his own way and play with consistency. But that's a big if with players like him. Also on the positive side, two scouts (one retired, one active) openly noted that they had him rated as the #1 cornerback in the draft. However, and I hate to continue to be a wet towel but keep in mind that this is in my opinion a very weak cornerback draft and so being the top dog in this draft class is not like being the top dog in others.
#44 Overall: QB Pat White, West Virginia
Grade: D
My Best Values: CB Sean Smith, LB Connor Barwin, LB Michael Johnson, DE Jarron Gilbert
Again, this could have been worse. But, it could have been a lot better. From a macro standpoint I have almost the same issues with this pick that I did with the cornerback pick at #25. Again, this is one of the weakest QB classes I have seen, and so taking a guy from this weak class with our second pick just doesn't feel like good value to me. Then again, the receivers were already gone by this pick, and that was one of the few positions where I felt this draft held premium value.
I believe Pat White only grades even close to this high as a QB. He does not grade this high as a WR. When have we really seen him work out as a WR? It's a complete projection. Do we even know that the guy can catch? And I don't mean from a JUGS machine, I mean with a cornerback on his hip, his arms flailing above Pat's eye line, a safety bearing down on him from the top, on third down in a crucial situation. Pat White is a good athlete, but he doesn't have the tangibles that would make me forgive the ZERO experience at receiver. Now, as a QB, he has one of the best resumes in the entire draft. Usually in a QB you're going to settle on experience level (number of starts) and accuracy (completion percentage) as the two pieces of evidence that can be easily and objectively gathered and have the highest correlation with pro success of any statistics. He has completed over 65% of his passes in each of his last three seasons, and he has played in 49 games. That blows guys like Matt Stafford and Mark Sanchez out of the water, as far as those two statistics go. He's a safe football player with only 2.2% interception rate his final two seasons at West Virginia. The problem is, he's also a dink and dunk kind of guy with a pretty paltry 11.0 yards per completion his last two seasons. Watching him play bears a lot of this out. He is most definitely a leader on the football field and he makes critical plays at critical moments. He was often the best football player on the field. But his delivery needs shortening, his footwork needs more consistency, and his long accuracy is questionable (except in critical moments).
Is he too small to be a franchise QB? Probably, yes. He is only 6' tall and weighs about 200 pounds. The success of guys like Drew Brees, Mike Vick and Seneca Wallace suggests that White should not be disqualified from the position by any means, but I think the lack of success in general of smaller guys also means he shouldn't be given a premium grade. Does he do all of the little things that Drew Brees does? No, not really. Does he have the feet or arm that Mike Vick did? No, not really. Did we really just draft a long term backup QB, another Seneca Wallace, with a mid-2nd round pick?
Yes, in all likelihood.
The thing to note, however, is his viability for the Wildcat. Here is where I have even more issues with this pick. I know that the Dolphins believe that the future of the Wildcat lies in finding someone that can throw the ball. That's fine and good. But, I am still not sure that Pat White is qualified to run the Wildcat. The Wildcat is still a running formation. The numbers advantage works equivalently to having a normal running formation with a FB and TE up against a defense that has only 7 men in the box (cover two, for instance). My big question to anyone who thinks Pat White will be able to run the Wildcat with smashing success is, do you think you could line Pat up at tailback in a dual-halfback setup with one tight end against a cover two, and he would be able to run the ball consistently for 4 or 5 yards per carry? Personally, I don't see it. Not in a guy that is only 200 pounds. Ronnie Brown made the Wildcat a dangerous running formation because he is big, powerful, fast and special. He turned runs that should have been losses into 1 or 2 yard gains. He turned runs that should have gone for 10 yards into 60 yard touchdowns. He often did that with his size. I realize that being able to pass the ball effectively adds a new element to the Wildcat, and in Pat White you do add that element. However, you're also taking one away. You're plugging one hole and allowing another to spring up. By the end of the season teams began to attack the Wildcat and send people to nullify the numbers advantage. This did make the Wildcat a lot less effective as a running formation, and it opened up the possibility for a lot of passing success if Ronnie Brown had been a more accurate passer. But, will teams treat the Wildcat that way if Pat White is running it? I don't think so. They'll stay at home more in coverage, attack less, and dare Pat to beat them running the ball. Can he do that? Remember that the numbers advantage we're talking about here is the equivalent of a normal offensive formation with a decoy back (rather than a blocking back) facing up against a front 7 with both safeties hanging back in cover two. Could you line up Pat White in those situations and have him beat that over and over again?
Maybe. Maybe not. It's no guarantee. People keep pretending that all Pat White does is bring more to the Wildcat, as if you're not also subtracting something from the other side of the equation. I beg to differ. At least, in the long run, it will even out. In the short run, it could take some teams time to adjust to the new wrinkles just like they took some time to adjust to it in 2008...and so it will be fun to watch in 2009. However, I prefer to use mid-2nd round picks on players that have genuine shots at long term standout starting careers...and I just don't view Pat White that way.
#61 Overall: CB Sean Smith, Utah
Grade: A
My Best Values: CB Sean Smith, LB Michael Johnson, LB Jason Williams, DE Jarron Gilbert
The reason this pick truly stands out to me, and gets an "A" grade, is because Miami traded down a few spots and picked up an extra 5th round pick while still getting a player that I easily could have been on board with as a "C" at #25 overall, and who would have been a "B" at #44 overall. Yes, I realize the position value was not there. But, Sean Smith is a truly gifted individual with a whole lot of upside.
He is nearly 6'4" in height, which in itself is not that rare for a receiver anymore. What is rare is that he does not move like a typical 6'4" reciever, but actually moves quickly enough to play cornerback. He moves a lot smaller than his height, and maintains more than adequate quickness for the position. He is somewhere between a 4.45 and a 4.50 guy in the straight line speed department, which is remarkable at 6'4" and 214 pounds. Keep in mind that his height and his long arms actually add straight line speed to his game on the deep vertical. Just think of the mechanics of an arching pass traveling vertically up the field with a cornerback trailing a streaking receiver. Sean Smith can swat a ball while trailing 3 steps, where a normal sized receiver would need to be at 2 steps in order to swat, and a smaller guy would need to be in the hip pocket at 1 step in order to adequately defend.
When I watch him, I like his eyes. He keeps a nice, smooth eye level that helps him see his opponent as well as the ball, and make quick decisions. He does not have the quickest plant-and-drive, but he also wastes few steps in his cutting, which makes up for it. He makes decisions instantaneously and he makes the right decisions. He is not jittery and does not get faked out easily. He is also an accomplished press corner, which is a rare treat at the college level as so few programs play that way anymore. I like his ability to mirror at the line of scrimmage and not be susceptible to fakes. He has a lot of experience transitioning and playing man coverage, and he is a natural for intercepting the deep ball.
A lot of people have talked about him moving to safety. I have said this before but this makes little sense to me and I am glad that Jeff Ireland rebuffed the idea so strongly. He is fresh onto the defensive side of the field, period. He was a high school standout at tailback, and moved to receiver at Utah where he played very little. He moved to cornerback his last two years. His defensive instincts, both in tackling and reading keys, both need a lot of refinement. And yet, he's going to move suddenly to the inside where he will be trusted to be a "Quarterback of the Defense"? No. No no no. At least, not in the next year or two. At safety, teams prize instincts, communication and tackling skills, as well as speed and the ability to keep the action in front of you. Sean Smith does not even tackle like a true defensive-minded player yet, and certainly doesn't have defensive veteran type instincts, and so his move to safety would be questionable at best. If anything I would prize his hands, ability to read and think on the run, and his sharp cutting ability in a move back to the receiver position where I believe he could flourish at the NFL level. He would not quite be a Brandon Marshall, but he might not be that far off, either.
I like the comparison that one scout made when he said to think of Sean Smith as a bigger Sam Madison. That is how I think of him. He doesn't have the physicality or "want to" in the way that a Vontae Davis does. But, if you consider the physicality of both Darius Butler and Sean Smith to be at about the same level, you have to admit that at 6'4" and 214 pounds this lack of physicality is going to be a lot LESS of a weakness for Sean Smith than it will be for the diminutive 5'10" and 185 pound Butler. They can both attack a ball carrier with the same level of aggression and tackle commitment, and Sean Smith's guy is going to go down a lot harder than Darius Butler's guy. This was one hell of a pick, especially considering the trade down, and if it weren't mired in the midst of a bunch of picks that sent me into an alcoholic bender, it would have gone a long way toward making this draft a highly pleasurable experience for me.
#87 Overall: WR Patrick Turner, USC
Grade: C
My Best Values: TE Shawn Nelson, TE Jared Cook, LB Marcus Freeman, LB Tyrone McKenzie, WR Jarett Dillard, WR Mike Thomas, WR Juaquin Iglesias
I didn't really freak out with this pick like some people did, and I certainly didn't use words like "hate" and whatnot. I had better receivers on the board here, and some intriguing TE and LB options as well. This pick felt like an average grade to me right away, at the time we made the pick. It was most certainly a surprise pick. I thought that amongst receivers, Miami would show more interest in Johnny Knox or Jarett Dillard.
The widespread opinion seemed to be that when the Giants traded up ahead of Miami in order to pick Ramses Barden, it was a sign that Miami wanted Barden and then "settled" on Turner. I don't buy that, not one bit. I believe Jeff Ireland when he says in about as matter-of-fact a manner as he can afford that nothing that happened in the picks immediately above #87 affected what they did at #87. This was an implied confirmation that Barden was not the target despite his billions of touchdowns against terrible competition.
Did I have Patrick Turner as a third round type of player? No. But I did have him as a solid 4th round, maybe top of the 5th round type of player. He has a very significant beard, and I consider this to be a strength for him.
Patrick Turner's Beard
I think the beard is a good move, overall. It gives him power, like Kimbo Slice. It symbolizes his toughness. It's a good place for hiding things. And plus, without it, he kind of looks like the Troll from the first Harry Potter movie.
Decide for yourself!
Anyway, in all seriousness, am I really going to rip the Dolphins apart for taking him at the bottom of the 3rd round when I had the guy (and his beard) as a solid 4th rounder that maybe could fall to the top of the 5th? A year ago, the general feeling was that Kendall Langford was a solid 4th round guy that could sneak into the bottom of the 3rd, and the Dolphins took him at the very top of the 3rd round. Some were unhappy, said it was a round too early. I don't think anyone is complaining now. I consider it to be very middle-of-the-road to get a guy in the middle rounds of the draft that is considered to maybe be a round too early. It feels par for the course to me, especially for a team that operates with a draft board of maybe 150 players as opposed to the 256 that will be drafted.
The fact of the matter is, Patrick Turner was a very highly recruited receiver out of high school. Some believed him the top receiver in the nation. He is 6'5" and 223 pounds, with a long and lean build that speaks of running ability and body control, as opposed to a guy that is loaded up with muscles that weigh him down while cutting. He has learned to be a good hands catcher, though this was inconsistent until his senior year, and he is a very solid route runner. The best part about him is that I don't see him having issues getting off the line in press very often. This is something I feel tends to be one of the biggest issues for larger receivers, because they're such big targets that they are easy to get hands on at the line of scrimmage. And, the best way to stop a big rock from gaining momentum is to catch it early in its acceleration rather than late. Turner's hand checking and ability to fake allows him to get off the line relatively clean, and this affords him the opportunity to use his significant frame to full advantage against smaller defensive backs at the top of his route.
Now, unfortunately, he's just not very fast. "Deceptive speed" is usually a buzz phrase for "slow". He does not possess the exciting gear change to be a run-after-catch guy, and this league loves run-after-catch guys. He is a genuine 4.60 guy in the speed department, with slightly better than you might expect agility and jumping ability for a guy with his size and speed. "Smooth" is a good word for him. The Dolphins will use him to bring the slant route back into this passing offense, and they will use him in the red zone to catch touchdown passes on fade and option routes. He has the ability to play multiple receiver positions, having lined up in the slot for USC in the past. He will also come in on run plays and crack a linebacker from the side.
I am not sure the Dolphins made this selection with "potential Pro Bowl" in mind. I hate to sound like a cliche fanboy, but they more made the selection with "potential Super Bowl" in mind. By that I just mean that they can be relatively sure that Patrick Turner will adequately fill the role that they have in mind for him, but that he will also probably not end up a truly dynamic playmaker. It isn't that I'm already closing the book on Turner, he most certainly has the potential to get better. But, it doesn't seem as likely to me as it does for a few other guys that could have gone at this pick. None of those other players, however, would have gotten an "A" grade from me. I did not see anyone with homerun value at this pick. As I said, I considered Turner to be a solid 4th round guy, especially after he turned in a very solid week of Senior Bowl practices. I did not have Ramses Barden as significantly better, if better at all. Long time scout Tom Marino had Turner as a late 3rd round grade, and had Ramses Barden as a 6th round grade. So taken by itself, I could get on board with this pick pretty easily, but then when you consider the next pick...
#108 Overall: WR Brian Hartline, Ohio State
Grade: F
My Best Values: TE Shawn Nelson, TE James Casey, TE Cornelius Ingram, G/T Jamon Meredith, G Duke Robinson, LB Marcus Freeman, LB Jasper Brinkley, WR Jarett Dillard, WR Johnny Knox, WR Louis Murphy, FS Chip Vaughn, LB Lawrence Sidbury, RB Rashad Jennings, RB Andre Brown
This is not the kind of value I expect with a pick at the top of the fourth round. Listen, as I said before, I fully understand that there is no magic board out there that has everyone's TRUE value, and if there is I sure as heck don't pretend to have exclusive pay-per-view access to that channel. I'm just one guy that had a first impression, and I'm telling you that first impression was bad. Really bad. Turkish prison bad.
It isn't that I couldn't have foreseen Miami's interest in Brian Hartline. He very nearly made my list of 20 players that I felt Miami would end up with one way or another. But, there's the "one way" and then there's the "another". I thought Miami might take him in the late 6th or 7th round. I certainly did not imagine him finding his way up to pick #108 in the draft.
Now, I mean no disrespect to Brian. Lord knows he's 'gangsta' enough to pop a cap in my arse...
"My pimp hand is strong, beotch!"
But, I just don't know why an underclassman with average size and 4.50 speed, only 21 catches in his senior season at a big program, that played third fiddle to guys as relatively unexciting as Brian Robiskie and Dane Sanzenbacher, should get drafted at the top of the 4th round. Someone is going to have to explain that one to me. And yes, Dane Sanzenbacher had just as many catches (21) as Hartline even though he played in only 8 games to Hartline's 12.
The guy is, at best, a utility player that might be able to play the slot and will hopefully play a significant role on special teams. I do see him as a strong punt returner. He has the agility for it.
But, how in God's name do you choose THIS guy over some of the other players that were available? I am sorry, but I do have some people that I trust to evaluate some of these guys, including myself, and we all had Brian Hartline way down the board. There were better guys available.
One issue I have is that Brian Robiskie has been used as an "anchor" so to speak, for Brian Hartline's value. After all, when Todd Boeckman was throwing the ball in 2007, Robiskie and Hartline had about the same number of catches. Robiskie was far better a playmaker in both 2007 and 2008 but I suppose we're to forget about that. The reason I don't buy this line of logic though is because I have never had an extremely high opinion of Robiskie himself. If Brian Robiskie's name were Jason Adams or some such, he would have been a late 2nd rounder or maybe more like a 3rd rounder. And we are supposed to buy Brian Hartline as a high 4th round worthy prospect? I guess Dane Sanzenbacher must be set for the 1st or 2nd round, next year.
Maybe I am being unfair, but I don't know that I am. You don't get to be valued at the level we are talking about just by default, nor do you have to go out and drop a million passes and get suspended for drugs and stealing in order to show with any kind of validity that a guy was not worthy of a high 4th round pick. You have to earn your way to the top of the 4th round and I have to say...what has a 6'1" and 195 pound junior with 4.50 speed and 73 catches the last two years that played second fiddle to Brian Robiskie and third fiddle to Dane Sanzenbacher really earned? The fact of the matter is, there were guys available, some of them that I outlined above, that I thought were better. And not just better, but a lot better. No, I don't know everything about everything and I didn't have dinner with Brian Robiskie and find out what his favorite color is. But, that's what I thought nonetheless.
#161 Overall: TE John Nalbone, Monmouth
Grade: C
My Best Values: G/T Jamon Meredith, G Duke Robinson, FS Chris Clemons, SS Michael Hamlin, LB Darry Beckwith, RB Rashad Jennings, RB Cedric Peerman
Hard to knock any pick that has the word "bone" in his name somewhere. This was another middle of the road pick for me. I thought Nalbone could be had later, but talking about waiting until the 6th round for a guy versus taking him in the 5th round is picky.
On the other hand, I was pretty sure Jamon Meredith was falling that low on concerns of his coachability, work ethic and attitude, but he had started to make a lot of sense to me from the 4th round onward. Miami Offensive Line Coach Dave DeGuglielmo recruited Meredith to South Carolina. I would have thought he would have some interest in him, but perhaps he just knew enough to stay away. Duke Robinson was another guy that had started to look a lot more appealing to me right around the 4th round and by this pick I was secretly hoping for either him or Meredith. I was fairly certain I knew why Darry Beckwith was falling, and he started to look pretty appealing to me by the 5th round pick. Rashad Jennings continued to fall way beyond what I would have suspected and I am still not sure why he fell, but I would have been very happy with him in the 5th round. The same goes for Cedric Peerman but where Jennings would have merited an "A" from me, I think Peerman was more of a "B". The safeties Chris Clemons and Michael Hamlin both started to look like good value at this point, and I was wondering if Miami shouldn't pick one, depending on how they feel about Tyrone Culver as a backup at the position.
John Nalbone was a guy that was easy to predict coming to Miami, hence I named him in my list of 20 players I expect to end up in Miami one way or another. He is a big 6'4" and 250 pounder that dominated his Monmouth offense catching a lot of passes. You don't get to see many games at Monmouth unless you contact the school and send for the tapes, but there were things that struck me on him for the positive and the negative. For one thing on the positive side, he was voted by the American Football Coaches Association to their All-America team. Also, while his 40 time was just around a 4.67 (which is good but not truly superlative), his shuttle (4.21) and cone (6.94) times were pretty damn good. On the negative, he was a senior and was not invited out to any All Star games.
The reason why I say it was easy to predict Miami's interest is because of where he is from and who has been training him. Scott Brunner and Odessa Turner have been working closely with Nalbone and both men are linked heavily to Bill Parcells, who is reputed to love New Jersey players. Parcells did, after all, sign Nalbone's former Monmouth teammate Miles Austin to an undrafted free agent contract a few years back, keeping him on the roster and allowing him to crack the return teams. Still, I considered Austin to be a better prospect than Nalbone coming out of college, yet Austin went undrafted while Nalbone got taken in the 5th round. Go figure. Overall this pick gets a mediocre grade.
#165 Overall: FS Chris Clemons, Clemson
Grade: B
My Best Values: FS Chris Clemons, SS Michael Hamlin, LB Darry Beckwith, RB Rashad Jennings, RB Cedric Peerman
This is where things started to get a little more interesting. I was fully on board with this pick. It wasn't just a mediocre pick to me, it was above average. I don't know that I would call this an "A" value, but it was pretty close.
The thing that Clemons (who grew up in Arcadia right next to where I grew up in Port Charlotte) brings to the table is all kinds of speed and athleticism in the form of a three-year starter for a top 25 defense (in all three years) that happened to play a lot of the Quarters coverage that Miami will employ in 2009. That is why it is close to an "A" for me, the experience level in a similar defensive coverage.
He's a quiet kid with a humble (to say the least) background. He has the speed and athleticism to be more explosive as he continues to grow. He never missed a game due to injury in his whole college career. I consider him to be a very solid player that will get a lot better under Todd Bowles' tutelage. He definitely reminds me a little bit of Yeremiah Bell.
By the way, when I talk about his athleticism, keep in mind he showed up to Indy at 6' tall and 208 pounds, ran a 4.33 in the 40, had a 37 inch vertical and a 10'7" broad jump. As a safety, he put the entire cornerback class to shame and exposed their lack of athleticism. His 10 yard split was tied with Darius Heyward-Bey and Mike Thomas, second only to Mike Wallace. He is a true thoroughbred, and a reliable tackler with a wealth of relevant experience. You truly do not get much better than that in a 5th round pick.
#181 Overall: OT Andrew Gardner, Georgia Tech
Grade: B
My Best Values: OT Andrew Gardner, OT Matt Slauson, OG Trevor Canfield, LB Darry Beckwith, LB Pierre Walters, RB Rashad Jennings, RB Cedric Peerman
It is difficult to tell whether I got so excited about the Clemons and Gardner picks simply because of my disappointment/indifference with the Vontae Davis, Pat White, Patrick Turner, Brian Hartline and John Nalbone picks...or if they are just genuinely great picks. I gave them both a "B" grade because I am not sure I saw either as a slam dunk. But they were a welcome breath of fresh air.
What is so great about Andrew Gardner? He is 6'7" and 304 pounds, runs under a 5.0 in he 40, and started 48 straight games at Left Tackle in the ACC. Talk about an easy sell.
So, what happened? He was decently recruited out of high school, considered among the top 100 prospects in Georgia. In 2005 he started every game at left tackle under Chan Gailey and was Freshman All-American first team, Freshman All-ACC. He helped anchor a line that allowed the fewest sacks in the ACC with only 10, while ranking third in the league in rushing. In 2006, he helped pave the way for Tashard Choice to gain 1,500 yards rushing, earning All-ACC honorable mention. By 2007, he was All-ACC first team. But then in 2008 Georgia Tech had new coaching and they switched to a gimmicky triple-option offense. Known as more of a strong guy than a finesse guy, he had to adjust a lot of cut blocking and finesse blocks in his final season. He was one of three team captains. But, he tore his labrum and had to play for most of the season through tremendous pain. Despite the injury and the offensive switch, he earned All-ACC Lineman of the Week twice. But then he worsened the shoulder injury in late October and had to go through season-ending surgery.
He is still rehabbing his shoulder and it definitely played a role in his fall down the boards. He should benefit from a move back to a pro style offense. Jeff Ireland says that he thinks Gardner has true left tackle feet. Finding that on a 6'7" prospect with tons of meaningful experience in the 6th round is a nice bonus.
#214 Overall: LB J.D. Folsom, Weber State
Grade: C
My Best Values: OG Trevor Canfield, LB Darry Beckwith, LB Pierre Walters, RB Rashad Jennings
Just like it might be fair that at some picks there wasn't even an "A" available when the Dolphins picked, all the way down in the 7th round they do benefit from the fact that it is kind of difficult to screw up a 7th round pick. The only way to get a "D" or "F" would be to bring in a guy that has serious character issues and/or headline risk whose mere presence on the roster runs the risk of being an unwelcome distraction and/or liability. I didn't see any guys like that.
Instead the Dolphins got J.D. Folsom, a nervous-sounding kid on his way to vet school who honestly did not believe he would be drafted. I wish I knew what the Dolphins saw in him, but I do not, for the most part because the only Weber State footage I've seen is a YouTube highlight video of the team's playoff game against Montana. And honestly, it was not a flattering collection of highlights for Folsom.
I don't think I would be going out on a limb to say that the Dolphins just want to see him play some special teams and see if he's crazy enough to crack some heads and make the roster as the 52nd or 53rd man. Otherwise, I would count on the 6'3" and 230 pounder to be back on his merry way to vet school in the not so distant future.
Things I Liked
*If you had to dip into an inferior class of corners, and trust me the Dolphins absolutely had no choice, at least they brought home two of the very few that had true top notch physical size and athletic ability. Only a handful of guys really had that in this draft, which is why the corner class was so inferior in my eyes. And yes, I fully believe that at cornerback it is very important to have great tangibles. It is not the same at other positions, like receiver. Receivers cut, and corners recover. You need more athletic ability and quickness to do the latter. This is especially true in today's NFL, which has taken much of the physicality out of corner coverage. I had a lot of arguments about Jairus Byrd and D.J. Moore before the draft. Well, Jairus got drafted as a safety and Moore got drafted in the 4th round to a team that plays strictly Cover 2. Even one of Jairus' biggest supporters (Tom Marino, by virtue of his relationship with father Gill Byrd) had Jairus moving to safety in his pre-draft grades. Coye Francies, a favorite of mine who also had trouble cracking the 4.6 barrier, went all the way down into the 7th round despite having some pretty excellent tape. Athleticism is important in the defensive backfield. And, I don't care if the Dolphins do plan on moving to a Quarters coverage, because it is not the same as a Cover 2 and the Dolphins have shown that now in big neon lettering for all to see. The need for athleticism is why they gave a big contract extension to Yeremiah Bell, who is so fast he tracked down the 4.37 speedster Jamaal Charles from behind when playing in Kansas City. The need for athleticism is why Will Allen continues to be the team's top corner. The need for athleticism is why the team tried like heck to bring Andre Goodman back despite his age. The need for athleticism is one reason they picked up a 4.4 to 4.5 speedster at safety by the name of Gibril Wilson. The need for athleticism in the secondary is why they drafted the most physically gifted cornerback in the draft at #25 overall, and the reason they drafted another 4.47 guy that also happened to be nearly 6'4" tall at #61 overall. The need for athleticism in the secondary is why the 4.33 speedster Chris Clemons will now be wearing aqua and orange. The need for athleticism in the defensive backfield is why Jason Allen has not been cut yet. Even newcomer Eric Green, who only ran a 4.52 at the Combine at 5'11" and 198 pounds, still had an incredible 3.90 shuttle, 6.68 cone drill, 38 inch vertical and 10'2" broad jump. Overall, I take it as a positive that the Dolphins have added three bodies to the defensive backfield that can run with and cover just about anyone in the entire NFL.
*I liked that the Dolphins did not participate in this defensive line class, particularly the tackles. When I was evaluating this class, I came away believing it to be an extremely weak and thin class, overall. The only decent nose tackle prospect in the class (aside from Raji, who would best be served as a 4-3 DT) was Ron Brace and in any other draft he would have gone further down than the top of the 2nd round, because even though he is probably the only player aside from Raji that can play the position, he does not necessarily have the ability to be a high impact guy. I think that all of these other nose prospects that everyone have been talking about, that is just a fine example of us seeing what we wish for, not what was actually there. I said several times before the draft that the Dolphins would not draft a nose prospect, and I am glad that they did not.
Things I Didn't Like
*How you can head into a draft that has one of the best receiver classes I have seen in a long time, needing some high impact players at that position, and only coming away with Patrick Turner and Brian Hartline, is something that is honestly beyond me. As I said on the individual pick basis, alone I can defend the Turner selection, but in combination with Hartline, I cannot. It is the opportunity cost that drives me crazy. Taking those two meant passing on so many other guys that I liked so much more. Even now, I do not see us going after a Brennan Marion as an undrafted free agent because the position is too crowded and I am sure he wants a better shot at making a team.
*A likely career backup quarterback with a mid-2nd round selection. Ouch. Even if he does provide something for the Wildcat. Unless he can run like Ronnie Brown *and* throw like Pat White, I think what he brings to the Wildcat is mostly just different, not necessarily better. Different will be good in the short run, as it will keep teams in catch-up mode for the Wildcat. But after 2009? What will we have? A career backup quarterback.
*No interior OL help. I don't understand this. They know damn well that last year Andy Alleman and Ike Ndukwe were not doing it for us at Guard. Yet, no help for the position. Justin Smiley is injury prone. Jake Grove has an injury history. Donald Thomas missed his one pro season due to injury. What am I missing here? You expect to get 48 games out of these three?!? I sure hope Shawn Murphy comes alive or Joe Berger is better than I remember. Oh, and THANK GOD we traded away Samson Satele, who would have been excellent depth at all three interior OL positions, in order to move up in the 4th round so that we could get the human dynamo Brian Hartline. Seriously, A+++ move on that one.
Overall Grade: C-/D+
Yes, yes. Flame away. I'm a jerk. I don't know what I'm talking about. I'm just an amateur. Blah, blah, blah. I told you at the beginning that it is an entirely arbitrary and flawed exercise to grade a draft the day after it happens. I was actually surprised that the grade came out more toward a "C-" than a "D+". I just gave 0 to 4 values based on the grade for each pick, and then weighted each grade 7 to 1 based on what round it was in, and I came out with a 1.8 or 1.9.
These grades are just based on how I viewed the draft, as it happened, based on the long draft season I have had doing lots of research and watching hundreds of hours of games along with my cohorts from UniversalDraft, Boomer and Conuficus. This grade is nothing more than a measure that shows how well the draft jived with my thought process before the draft. A draft can't REALLY be graded and evaluated until three or four years down the road.
But the fact of the matter is, if you're going to go through with the endeavor of grading a draft the day after it happened, which is an inherently flawed concept, you have to base it on something. And the best thing I can base it on is which players I really liked heading into the draft, and which ones I did not like. That's it, period. That's all it is about.
And any draft grade has to be that way, wholly subjective in nature. People can get cutesy trying to pretend they can come up with a draft analysis that is objective, but that is a misguided venture. It is misguided because every draft pick by every team has a valid and cogent rationale behind it.
Every single pick. Even Michael Mitchell, Mel Kiper's 73rd rated safety, going in the second round to the Raiders, has a completely valid rationale behind the pick (supposedly it wasn't just the Raiders onto him but the Bears as well). These guys aren't well paid, and they don't spend countless, tireless hours traveling on the road, watching film, in meetings, conducting interviews, investigating every possible angle with every possible player...to sit down on draft day and then just make a pick that "makes no sense". It just doesn't happen that way. And when a wannabe draft grader says something like that, if any personnel guy reads it, I'm sure he believes that draft grader is an effing idiot and a hack.
Let's look at an example. One of my favorite backs in the draft, Rashad Jennings, went all the way down into the 7th round where he was taken by the Jacksonville Jaguars. Why he fell that far, I really don't know. Yet, draft graders out there are going to say things like "The Jaguars drafted for value in the 7th round, and got Rashad Jennings who could be a steal." Or, take another example, Walter Football's review of the Chris Clemons pick. "The Dolphins finally decided not to reach and draft for value instead."
Can anyone tell me what is wrong with that type of analysis? It pretends that there's one magical consensus big board out there, and that the draft grader knows exactly how it reads. The team finally stopped reaching, and took value instead? According to whom? According to the team, John Nalbone was valued higher than Chris Clemons, and Brian Hartline valued above both. Really, language like this is just meant to obfuscate the truth, which is that by handing out a draft grade you are pitting YOUR evaluation of the players against THEIR evaluation of the players.
And boy is that ever an arrogant thing to do.
Luckily, I don't think I am often accused of being very humble. But, at least I'm honest.
And my honest opinion is that I was NOT a happy camper on either day of the draft. My grades are levered as best they can be toward what I was feeling right away when the picks were announced, my first impression, before I was given time to put on my aqua colored sunglasses and start to justify the pick.
Quick note on my grading system: I believe that "A" grades are handed out a little too easily for my tastes. People seem to skip the "B" and "D" in their analyses, skipping straight to "A" and "F". Or, in the case of a fan, everything bad gets "C" and everything good gets an "A", lol. I believe that above average is "B" and below average is "D" and that most things tend to be average which is "C" and something has to be truly inspired to get an "A" from me and similarly truly terrible to get an "F" from me. Pretty simple. What it means, though is that sometimes a certain pick didn't even really have an "A" as a possibility. For instance, I'm not sure if I saw an "A" available at #25, although I would have had to think long and hard about giving Hakeem Nicks that grade, had we taken him.
Pick by Pick Analysis
#25 Overall: CB Vontae Davis, Illinois
Grade: D
My Best Values: WR Hakeem Nicks, LB Rey Maualuga, LB Clay Matthews, RB Chris Wells
It could have been worse, which is why this did not get an "F" grade. But, I don't think I should honestly grade it a "C" either, because my emotional reaction to the pick as it happened definitely belied a feeling that this was not in any way a "so-so" pick. Are there things to like about the pick? Sure. But there were things I didn't like about the pick, as well. First off, I think this CB class is a very weak class overall. I think the whole class lacks requisite speed and athleticism, and the few that have it are highly flawed in their own ways. So from a macro standpoint, account me unexcited that the Dolphins dipped into a flawed CB class with their first pick in the 2009 NFL Draft. The two biggest criticisms of Vontae, aside from the macro argument, center around character and his inconsistent play in 2008. From a character standpoint, I want to make sure that it is clear that Vontae Davis is NOT a Percy Harvin. Percy Harvin has actual, documented things in his past (and present) that scare teams. It isn't just the rumor of bad interviews and punched coaches, etc. Davis doesn't have that kind of substantiation behind any claims against his character. Ron Zook has attempted to dispel those rumors at every turn, noting that Davis is a gym rat and does everything he can to be the best football player possible. It should be noted that Ron Zook and Jeff Ireland worked together on the Kansas City Chiefs, and have a good relationship with each other, and so it should be taken as a positive sign for Vontae that the team that took him is one that is likely to get Zook's honest opinion of the kid.
The character flaws may have originated when Scouts Inc. said that they had been told by multiple sources that Vontae lacks proper respect for his coaches, and works hard when he is in the mood to do so. The character concerns were sharpened by a completely false report that Vontae Davis tested positive for marijuana at the NFL Combine. Still, other things about Vontae Davis do not help to allay these fears. First off, can I just say that I found it hilariously ironic that in response to a question during a conference call with Miami media about his reaction to people raising character concerns about him, Vontae referred to himself in the third-person. Nice. Second, and this is something that Vontae can't help but, he is Vernon Davis' brother and Vernon is not doing his little brother any favors when it comes to issues of character. Third, was it me or did it take Vontae and his agent a long time to respond to the allegations by NFLDraftBible that Davis tested positive for marijuana? Contrast this with Clay Matthews and his agent, who immediately shouted loud and clear that there is no possible way this allegation could be true, as if to say "I haven't touched a steroid in my entire life so unless someone injedcted me while I was sleeping, I know for a fact this allegation is untrue." Maybe this is just a completely false, arbitrary and invalid perception but the measured and delayed responses of both Vontae Davis and Brian Cushing to the allegations looked like the equivalent of a guy being asked if he cheated on his wife with a certain woman and then looking up and thinking about it for a few seconds before answering. A fourth thing that doesn't help the perception of Vontae Davis as a character problem is that he got benched by his own coaching staff at Illinois for inconsistent play. Nobody likes an underachiever, ask Michael Johnson.
So, what is the truth about Vontae's character? I think that where there is smoke, there is fire. But luckily, probably not Percy Harvin's bonfire. I believe Vontae is getting killed by someone (or maybe multiple people) on the Illinois coaching staff. But, Ron Zook is a very recruiting-minded head coach and he will go to bat for any player that makes it all the way through his program and into the top areas of the NFL Draft. He has to. Those players are a feather in the cap of a program trying to scratch and claw their way up the Big Ten ladder. Urban Meyer, from Championship team Florida, can recruit players in his sleep and therefore he can get away with a little more honesty about Percy Harvin, saying that "I just hope he goes where the coaching staff is strong". I don't think Scouts Inc. picked that nugget about Vontae's character out of thin air. Nor do I think Tom Marino, who was a highly regarded scout for decades with the Rams and Saints, just decided make stuff up when he noted about Vontae Davis that "I’ve been told by far too many veteran scouts that he is a DeAngelo Hall clone who is not easy to coach".
So, I don't think I am way off for criticizing the pick on the basis of character. He works hard and he's a gym rat, but he's an underachiever and there are an awful lot of scouts and others whose job it is to ferret out this information suggesting that he has attitude and coachability issues, and getting benched by his coaches certainly fans those flames. And that, by the way, would be my second criticism of Vontae Davis. That being, his inconsistency on the field which led to his being a noted underachiever and having been benched by his coaches. Neither criticism alone would have prevented me from withholding the #25 overall pick on a player with as much talent as Davis has, after all I openly espoused the underachieving Michael Johnson for the #25 pick not too long ago. But, when you marry both of them together, that's why I had a problem with the pick. That is why I consumed an egregious amount of liquor immediately after the Dolphins selected him.
Now, that said, on the positive side, Davis is one of the very few corners in this draft that has ACTUAL pro physical ability. He is nearly 6' tall, weighing over 200 pounds, has genuine 4.40 type speed (an accolade that is often thrown around but not often proven) with great jumping ability, excellent agility, and he is a physical and strong football player that attacks the ball carrier. He is smart, having scored I believe in the mid-20's on the wonderlic, and he bench pressed the 225 pound bar 25 times, which is absolutely superlative for a cornerback. He has true Pro Bowl tangibles and intelligence, if he could only get out of his own way and play with consistency. But that's a big if with players like him. Also on the positive side, two scouts (one retired, one active) openly noted that they had him rated as the #1 cornerback in the draft. However, and I hate to continue to be a wet towel but keep in mind that this is in my opinion a very weak cornerback draft and so being the top dog in this draft class is not like being the top dog in others.
#44 Overall: QB Pat White, West Virginia
Grade: D
My Best Values: CB Sean Smith, LB Connor Barwin, LB Michael Johnson, DE Jarron Gilbert
Again, this could have been worse. But, it could have been a lot better. From a macro standpoint I have almost the same issues with this pick that I did with the cornerback pick at #25. Again, this is one of the weakest QB classes I have seen, and so taking a guy from this weak class with our second pick just doesn't feel like good value to me. Then again, the receivers were already gone by this pick, and that was one of the few positions where I felt this draft held premium value.
I believe Pat White only grades even close to this high as a QB. He does not grade this high as a WR. When have we really seen him work out as a WR? It's a complete projection. Do we even know that the guy can catch? And I don't mean from a JUGS machine, I mean with a cornerback on his hip, his arms flailing above Pat's eye line, a safety bearing down on him from the top, on third down in a crucial situation. Pat White is a good athlete, but he doesn't have the tangibles that would make me forgive the ZERO experience at receiver. Now, as a QB, he has one of the best resumes in the entire draft. Usually in a QB you're going to settle on experience level (number of starts) and accuracy (completion percentage) as the two pieces of evidence that can be easily and objectively gathered and have the highest correlation with pro success of any statistics. He has completed over 65% of his passes in each of his last three seasons, and he has played in 49 games. That blows guys like Matt Stafford and Mark Sanchez out of the water, as far as those two statistics go. He's a safe football player with only 2.2% interception rate his final two seasons at West Virginia. The problem is, he's also a dink and dunk kind of guy with a pretty paltry 11.0 yards per completion his last two seasons. Watching him play bears a lot of this out. He is most definitely a leader on the football field and he makes critical plays at critical moments. He was often the best football player on the field. But his delivery needs shortening, his footwork needs more consistency, and his long accuracy is questionable (except in critical moments).
Is he too small to be a franchise QB? Probably, yes. He is only 6' tall and weighs about 200 pounds. The success of guys like Drew Brees, Mike Vick and Seneca Wallace suggests that White should not be disqualified from the position by any means, but I think the lack of success in general of smaller guys also means he shouldn't be given a premium grade. Does he do all of the little things that Drew Brees does? No, not really. Does he have the feet or arm that Mike Vick did? No, not really. Did we really just draft a long term backup QB, another Seneca Wallace, with a mid-2nd round pick?
Yes, in all likelihood.
The thing to note, however, is his viability for the Wildcat. Here is where I have even more issues with this pick. I know that the Dolphins believe that the future of the Wildcat lies in finding someone that can throw the ball. That's fine and good. But, I am still not sure that Pat White is qualified to run the Wildcat. The Wildcat is still a running formation. The numbers advantage works equivalently to having a normal running formation with a FB and TE up against a defense that has only 7 men in the box (cover two, for instance). My big question to anyone who thinks Pat White will be able to run the Wildcat with smashing success is, do you think you could line Pat up at tailback in a dual-halfback setup with one tight end against a cover two, and he would be able to run the ball consistently for 4 or 5 yards per carry? Personally, I don't see it. Not in a guy that is only 200 pounds. Ronnie Brown made the Wildcat a dangerous running formation because he is big, powerful, fast and special. He turned runs that should have been losses into 1 or 2 yard gains. He turned runs that should have gone for 10 yards into 60 yard touchdowns. He often did that with his size. I realize that being able to pass the ball effectively adds a new element to the Wildcat, and in Pat White you do add that element. However, you're also taking one away. You're plugging one hole and allowing another to spring up. By the end of the season teams began to attack the Wildcat and send people to nullify the numbers advantage. This did make the Wildcat a lot less effective as a running formation, and it opened up the possibility for a lot of passing success if Ronnie Brown had been a more accurate passer. But, will teams treat the Wildcat that way if Pat White is running it? I don't think so. They'll stay at home more in coverage, attack less, and dare Pat to beat them running the ball. Can he do that? Remember that the numbers advantage we're talking about here is the equivalent of a normal offensive formation with a decoy back (rather than a blocking back) facing up against a front 7 with both safeties hanging back in cover two. Could you line up Pat White in those situations and have him beat that over and over again?
Maybe. Maybe not. It's no guarantee. People keep pretending that all Pat White does is bring more to the Wildcat, as if you're not also subtracting something from the other side of the equation. I beg to differ. At least, in the long run, it will even out. In the short run, it could take some teams time to adjust to the new wrinkles just like they took some time to adjust to it in 2008...and so it will be fun to watch in 2009. However, I prefer to use mid-2nd round picks on players that have genuine shots at long term standout starting careers...and I just don't view Pat White that way.
#61 Overall: CB Sean Smith, Utah
Grade: A
My Best Values: CB Sean Smith, LB Michael Johnson, LB Jason Williams, DE Jarron Gilbert
The reason this pick truly stands out to me, and gets an "A" grade, is because Miami traded down a few spots and picked up an extra 5th round pick while still getting a player that I easily could have been on board with as a "C" at #25 overall, and who would have been a "B" at #44 overall. Yes, I realize the position value was not there. But, Sean Smith is a truly gifted individual with a whole lot of upside.
He is nearly 6'4" in height, which in itself is not that rare for a receiver anymore. What is rare is that he does not move like a typical 6'4" reciever, but actually moves quickly enough to play cornerback. He moves a lot smaller than his height, and maintains more than adequate quickness for the position. He is somewhere between a 4.45 and a 4.50 guy in the straight line speed department, which is remarkable at 6'4" and 214 pounds. Keep in mind that his height and his long arms actually add straight line speed to his game on the deep vertical. Just think of the mechanics of an arching pass traveling vertically up the field with a cornerback trailing a streaking receiver. Sean Smith can swat a ball while trailing 3 steps, where a normal sized receiver would need to be at 2 steps in order to swat, and a smaller guy would need to be in the hip pocket at 1 step in order to adequately defend.
When I watch him, I like his eyes. He keeps a nice, smooth eye level that helps him see his opponent as well as the ball, and make quick decisions. He does not have the quickest plant-and-drive, but he also wastes few steps in his cutting, which makes up for it. He makes decisions instantaneously and he makes the right decisions. He is not jittery and does not get faked out easily. He is also an accomplished press corner, which is a rare treat at the college level as so few programs play that way anymore. I like his ability to mirror at the line of scrimmage and not be susceptible to fakes. He has a lot of experience transitioning and playing man coverage, and he is a natural for intercepting the deep ball.
A lot of people have talked about him moving to safety. I have said this before but this makes little sense to me and I am glad that Jeff Ireland rebuffed the idea so strongly. He is fresh onto the defensive side of the field, period. He was a high school standout at tailback, and moved to receiver at Utah where he played very little. He moved to cornerback his last two years. His defensive instincts, both in tackling and reading keys, both need a lot of refinement. And yet, he's going to move suddenly to the inside where he will be trusted to be a "Quarterback of the Defense"? No. No no no. At least, not in the next year or two. At safety, teams prize instincts, communication and tackling skills, as well as speed and the ability to keep the action in front of you. Sean Smith does not even tackle like a true defensive-minded player yet, and certainly doesn't have defensive veteran type instincts, and so his move to safety would be questionable at best. If anything I would prize his hands, ability to read and think on the run, and his sharp cutting ability in a move back to the receiver position where I believe he could flourish at the NFL level. He would not quite be a Brandon Marshall, but he might not be that far off, either.
I like the comparison that one scout made when he said to think of Sean Smith as a bigger Sam Madison. That is how I think of him. He doesn't have the physicality or "want to" in the way that a Vontae Davis does. But, if you consider the physicality of both Darius Butler and Sean Smith to be at about the same level, you have to admit that at 6'4" and 214 pounds this lack of physicality is going to be a lot LESS of a weakness for Sean Smith than it will be for the diminutive 5'10" and 185 pound Butler. They can both attack a ball carrier with the same level of aggression and tackle commitment, and Sean Smith's guy is going to go down a lot harder than Darius Butler's guy. This was one hell of a pick, especially considering the trade down, and if it weren't mired in the midst of a bunch of picks that sent me into an alcoholic bender, it would have gone a long way toward making this draft a highly pleasurable experience for me.
#87 Overall: WR Patrick Turner, USC
Grade: C
My Best Values: TE Shawn Nelson, TE Jared Cook, LB Marcus Freeman, LB Tyrone McKenzie, WR Jarett Dillard, WR Mike Thomas, WR Juaquin Iglesias
I didn't really freak out with this pick like some people did, and I certainly didn't use words like "hate" and whatnot. I had better receivers on the board here, and some intriguing TE and LB options as well. This pick felt like an average grade to me right away, at the time we made the pick. It was most certainly a surprise pick. I thought that amongst receivers, Miami would show more interest in Johnny Knox or Jarett Dillard.
The widespread opinion seemed to be that when the Giants traded up ahead of Miami in order to pick Ramses Barden, it was a sign that Miami wanted Barden and then "settled" on Turner. I don't buy that, not one bit. I believe Jeff Ireland when he says in about as matter-of-fact a manner as he can afford that nothing that happened in the picks immediately above #87 affected what they did at #87. This was an implied confirmation that Barden was not the target despite his billions of touchdowns against terrible competition.
Did I have Patrick Turner as a third round type of player? No. But I did have him as a solid 4th round, maybe top of the 5th round type of player. He has a very significant beard, and I consider this to be a strength for him.
Patrick Turner's Beard
I think the beard is a good move, overall. It gives him power, like Kimbo Slice. It symbolizes his toughness. It's a good place for hiding things. And plus, without it, he kind of looks like the Troll from the first Harry Potter movie.
Decide for yourself!
Anyway, in all seriousness, am I really going to rip the Dolphins apart for taking him at the bottom of the 3rd round when I had the guy (and his beard) as a solid 4th rounder that maybe could fall to the top of the 5th? A year ago, the general feeling was that Kendall Langford was a solid 4th round guy that could sneak into the bottom of the 3rd, and the Dolphins took him at the very top of the 3rd round. Some were unhappy, said it was a round too early. I don't think anyone is complaining now. I consider it to be very middle-of-the-road to get a guy in the middle rounds of the draft that is considered to maybe be a round too early. It feels par for the course to me, especially for a team that operates with a draft board of maybe 150 players as opposed to the 256 that will be drafted.
The fact of the matter is, Patrick Turner was a very highly recruited receiver out of high school. Some believed him the top receiver in the nation. He is 6'5" and 223 pounds, with a long and lean build that speaks of running ability and body control, as opposed to a guy that is loaded up with muscles that weigh him down while cutting. He has learned to be a good hands catcher, though this was inconsistent until his senior year, and he is a very solid route runner. The best part about him is that I don't see him having issues getting off the line in press very often. This is something I feel tends to be one of the biggest issues for larger receivers, because they're such big targets that they are easy to get hands on at the line of scrimmage. And, the best way to stop a big rock from gaining momentum is to catch it early in its acceleration rather than late. Turner's hand checking and ability to fake allows him to get off the line relatively clean, and this affords him the opportunity to use his significant frame to full advantage against smaller defensive backs at the top of his route.
Now, unfortunately, he's just not very fast. "Deceptive speed" is usually a buzz phrase for "slow". He does not possess the exciting gear change to be a run-after-catch guy, and this league loves run-after-catch guys. He is a genuine 4.60 guy in the speed department, with slightly better than you might expect agility and jumping ability for a guy with his size and speed. "Smooth" is a good word for him. The Dolphins will use him to bring the slant route back into this passing offense, and they will use him in the red zone to catch touchdown passes on fade and option routes. He has the ability to play multiple receiver positions, having lined up in the slot for USC in the past. He will also come in on run plays and crack a linebacker from the side.
I am not sure the Dolphins made this selection with "potential Pro Bowl" in mind. I hate to sound like a cliche fanboy, but they more made the selection with "potential Super Bowl" in mind. By that I just mean that they can be relatively sure that Patrick Turner will adequately fill the role that they have in mind for him, but that he will also probably not end up a truly dynamic playmaker. It isn't that I'm already closing the book on Turner, he most certainly has the potential to get better. But, it doesn't seem as likely to me as it does for a few other guys that could have gone at this pick. None of those other players, however, would have gotten an "A" grade from me. I did not see anyone with homerun value at this pick. As I said, I considered Turner to be a solid 4th round guy, especially after he turned in a very solid week of Senior Bowl practices. I did not have Ramses Barden as significantly better, if better at all. Long time scout Tom Marino had Turner as a late 3rd round grade, and had Ramses Barden as a 6th round grade. So taken by itself, I could get on board with this pick pretty easily, but then when you consider the next pick...
#108 Overall: WR Brian Hartline, Ohio State
Grade: F
My Best Values: TE Shawn Nelson, TE James Casey, TE Cornelius Ingram, G/T Jamon Meredith, G Duke Robinson, LB Marcus Freeman, LB Jasper Brinkley, WR Jarett Dillard, WR Johnny Knox, WR Louis Murphy, FS Chip Vaughn, LB Lawrence Sidbury, RB Rashad Jennings, RB Andre Brown
This is not the kind of value I expect with a pick at the top of the fourth round. Listen, as I said before, I fully understand that there is no magic board out there that has everyone's TRUE value, and if there is I sure as heck don't pretend to have exclusive pay-per-view access to that channel. I'm just one guy that had a first impression, and I'm telling you that first impression was bad. Really bad. Turkish prison bad.
It isn't that I couldn't have foreseen Miami's interest in Brian Hartline. He very nearly made my list of 20 players that I felt Miami would end up with one way or another. But, there's the "one way" and then there's the "another". I thought Miami might take him in the late 6th or 7th round. I certainly did not imagine him finding his way up to pick #108 in the draft.
Now, I mean no disrespect to Brian. Lord knows he's 'gangsta' enough to pop a cap in my arse...
"My pimp hand is strong, beotch!"
But, I just don't know why an underclassman with average size and 4.50 speed, only 21 catches in his senior season at a big program, that played third fiddle to guys as relatively unexciting as Brian Robiskie and Dane Sanzenbacher, should get drafted at the top of the 4th round. Someone is going to have to explain that one to me. And yes, Dane Sanzenbacher had just as many catches (21) as Hartline even though he played in only 8 games to Hartline's 12.
The guy is, at best, a utility player that might be able to play the slot and will hopefully play a significant role on special teams. I do see him as a strong punt returner. He has the agility for it.
But, how in God's name do you choose THIS guy over some of the other players that were available? I am sorry, but I do have some people that I trust to evaluate some of these guys, including myself, and we all had Brian Hartline way down the board. There were better guys available.
One issue I have is that Brian Robiskie has been used as an "anchor" so to speak, for Brian Hartline's value. After all, when Todd Boeckman was throwing the ball in 2007, Robiskie and Hartline had about the same number of catches. Robiskie was far better a playmaker in both 2007 and 2008 but I suppose we're to forget about that. The reason I don't buy this line of logic though is because I have never had an extremely high opinion of Robiskie himself. If Brian Robiskie's name were Jason Adams or some such, he would have been a late 2nd rounder or maybe more like a 3rd rounder. And we are supposed to buy Brian Hartline as a high 4th round worthy prospect? I guess Dane Sanzenbacher must be set for the 1st or 2nd round, next year.
Maybe I am being unfair, but I don't know that I am. You don't get to be valued at the level we are talking about just by default, nor do you have to go out and drop a million passes and get suspended for drugs and stealing in order to show with any kind of validity that a guy was not worthy of a high 4th round pick. You have to earn your way to the top of the 4th round and I have to say...what has a 6'1" and 195 pound junior with 4.50 speed and 73 catches the last two years that played second fiddle to Brian Robiskie and third fiddle to Dane Sanzenbacher really earned? The fact of the matter is, there were guys available, some of them that I outlined above, that I thought were better. And not just better, but a lot better. No, I don't know everything about everything and I didn't have dinner with Brian Robiskie and find out what his favorite color is. But, that's what I thought nonetheless.
#161 Overall: TE John Nalbone, Monmouth
Grade: C
My Best Values: G/T Jamon Meredith, G Duke Robinson, FS Chris Clemons, SS Michael Hamlin, LB Darry Beckwith, RB Rashad Jennings, RB Cedric Peerman
Hard to knock any pick that has the word "bone" in his name somewhere. This was another middle of the road pick for me. I thought Nalbone could be had later, but talking about waiting until the 6th round for a guy versus taking him in the 5th round is picky.
On the other hand, I was pretty sure Jamon Meredith was falling that low on concerns of his coachability, work ethic and attitude, but he had started to make a lot of sense to me from the 4th round onward. Miami Offensive Line Coach Dave DeGuglielmo recruited Meredith to South Carolina. I would have thought he would have some interest in him, but perhaps he just knew enough to stay away. Duke Robinson was another guy that had started to look a lot more appealing to me right around the 4th round and by this pick I was secretly hoping for either him or Meredith. I was fairly certain I knew why Darry Beckwith was falling, and he started to look pretty appealing to me by the 5th round pick. Rashad Jennings continued to fall way beyond what I would have suspected and I am still not sure why he fell, but I would have been very happy with him in the 5th round. The same goes for Cedric Peerman but where Jennings would have merited an "A" from me, I think Peerman was more of a "B". The safeties Chris Clemons and Michael Hamlin both started to look like good value at this point, and I was wondering if Miami shouldn't pick one, depending on how they feel about Tyrone Culver as a backup at the position.
John Nalbone was a guy that was easy to predict coming to Miami, hence I named him in my list of 20 players I expect to end up in Miami one way or another. He is a big 6'4" and 250 pounder that dominated his Monmouth offense catching a lot of passes. You don't get to see many games at Monmouth unless you contact the school and send for the tapes, but there were things that struck me on him for the positive and the negative. For one thing on the positive side, he was voted by the American Football Coaches Association to their All-America team. Also, while his 40 time was just around a 4.67 (which is good but not truly superlative), his shuttle (4.21) and cone (6.94) times were pretty damn good. On the negative, he was a senior and was not invited out to any All Star games.
The reason why I say it was easy to predict Miami's interest is because of where he is from and who has been training him. Scott Brunner and Odessa Turner have been working closely with Nalbone and both men are linked heavily to Bill Parcells, who is reputed to love New Jersey players. Parcells did, after all, sign Nalbone's former Monmouth teammate Miles Austin to an undrafted free agent contract a few years back, keeping him on the roster and allowing him to crack the return teams. Still, I considered Austin to be a better prospect than Nalbone coming out of college, yet Austin went undrafted while Nalbone got taken in the 5th round. Go figure. Overall this pick gets a mediocre grade.
#165 Overall: FS Chris Clemons, Clemson
Grade: B
My Best Values: FS Chris Clemons, SS Michael Hamlin, LB Darry Beckwith, RB Rashad Jennings, RB Cedric Peerman
This is where things started to get a little more interesting. I was fully on board with this pick. It wasn't just a mediocre pick to me, it was above average. I don't know that I would call this an "A" value, but it was pretty close.
The thing that Clemons (who grew up in Arcadia right next to where I grew up in Port Charlotte) brings to the table is all kinds of speed and athleticism in the form of a three-year starter for a top 25 defense (in all three years) that happened to play a lot of the Quarters coverage that Miami will employ in 2009. That is why it is close to an "A" for me, the experience level in a similar defensive coverage.
He's a quiet kid with a humble (to say the least) background. He has the speed and athleticism to be more explosive as he continues to grow. He never missed a game due to injury in his whole college career. I consider him to be a very solid player that will get a lot better under Todd Bowles' tutelage. He definitely reminds me a little bit of Yeremiah Bell.
By the way, when I talk about his athleticism, keep in mind he showed up to Indy at 6' tall and 208 pounds, ran a 4.33 in the 40, had a 37 inch vertical and a 10'7" broad jump. As a safety, he put the entire cornerback class to shame and exposed their lack of athleticism. His 10 yard split was tied with Darius Heyward-Bey and Mike Thomas, second only to Mike Wallace. He is a true thoroughbred, and a reliable tackler with a wealth of relevant experience. You truly do not get much better than that in a 5th round pick.
#181 Overall: OT Andrew Gardner, Georgia Tech
Grade: B
My Best Values: OT Andrew Gardner, OT Matt Slauson, OG Trevor Canfield, LB Darry Beckwith, LB Pierre Walters, RB Rashad Jennings, RB Cedric Peerman
It is difficult to tell whether I got so excited about the Clemons and Gardner picks simply because of my disappointment/indifference with the Vontae Davis, Pat White, Patrick Turner, Brian Hartline and John Nalbone picks...or if they are just genuinely great picks. I gave them both a "B" grade because I am not sure I saw either as a slam dunk. But they were a welcome breath of fresh air.
What is so great about Andrew Gardner? He is 6'7" and 304 pounds, runs under a 5.0 in he 40, and started 48 straight games at Left Tackle in the ACC. Talk about an easy sell.
So, what happened? He was decently recruited out of high school, considered among the top 100 prospects in Georgia. In 2005 he started every game at left tackle under Chan Gailey and was Freshman All-American first team, Freshman All-ACC. He helped anchor a line that allowed the fewest sacks in the ACC with only 10, while ranking third in the league in rushing. In 2006, he helped pave the way for Tashard Choice to gain 1,500 yards rushing, earning All-ACC honorable mention. By 2007, he was All-ACC first team. But then in 2008 Georgia Tech had new coaching and they switched to a gimmicky triple-option offense. Known as more of a strong guy than a finesse guy, he had to adjust a lot of cut blocking and finesse blocks in his final season. He was one of three team captains. But, he tore his labrum and had to play for most of the season through tremendous pain. Despite the injury and the offensive switch, he earned All-ACC Lineman of the Week twice. But then he worsened the shoulder injury in late October and had to go through season-ending surgery.
He is still rehabbing his shoulder and it definitely played a role in his fall down the boards. He should benefit from a move back to a pro style offense. Jeff Ireland says that he thinks Gardner has true left tackle feet. Finding that on a 6'7" prospect with tons of meaningful experience in the 6th round is a nice bonus.
#214 Overall: LB J.D. Folsom, Weber State
Grade: C
My Best Values: OG Trevor Canfield, LB Darry Beckwith, LB Pierre Walters, RB Rashad Jennings
Just like it might be fair that at some picks there wasn't even an "A" available when the Dolphins picked, all the way down in the 7th round they do benefit from the fact that it is kind of difficult to screw up a 7th round pick. The only way to get a "D" or "F" would be to bring in a guy that has serious character issues and/or headline risk whose mere presence on the roster runs the risk of being an unwelcome distraction and/or liability. I didn't see any guys like that.
Instead the Dolphins got J.D. Folsom, a nervous-sounding kid on his way to vet school who honestly did not believe he would be drafted. I wish I knew what the Dolphins saw in him, but I do not, for the most part because the only Weber State footage I've seen is a YouTube highlight video of the team's playoff game against Montana. And honestly, it was not a flattering collection of highlights for Folsom.
I don't think I would be going out on a limb to say that the Dolphins just want to see him play some special teams and see if he's crazy enough to crack some heads and make the roster as the 52nd or 53rd man. Otherwise, I would count on the 6'3" and 230 pounder to be back on his merry way to vet school in the not so distant future.
Things I Liked
*If you had to dip into an inferior class of corners, and trust me the Dolphins absolutely had no choice, at least they brought home two of the very few that had true top notch physical size and athletic ability. Only a handful of guys really had that in this draft, which is why the corner class was so inferior in my eyes. And yes, I fully believe that at cornerback it is very important to have great tangibles. It is not the same at other positions, like receiver. Receivers cut, and corners recover. You need more athletic ability and quickness to do the latter. This is especially true in today's NFL, which has taken much of the physicality out of corner coverage. I had a lot of arguments about Jairus Byrd and D.J. Moore before the draft. Well, Jairus got drafted as a safety and Moore got drafted in the 4th round to a team that plays strictly Cover 2. Even one of Jairus' biggest supporters (Tom Marino, by virtue of his relationship with father Gill Byrd) had Jairus moving to safety in his pre-draft grades. Coye Francies, a favorite of mine who also had trouble cracking the 4.6 barrier, went all the way down into the 7th round despite having some pretty excellent tape. Athleticism is important in the defensive backfield. And, I don't care if the Dolphins do plan on moving to a Quarters coverage, because it is not the same as a Cover 2 and the Dolphins have shown that now in big neon lettering for all to see. The need for athleticism is why they gave a big contract extension to Yeremiah Bell, who is so fast he tracked down the 4.37 speedster Jamaal Charles from behind when playing in Kansas City. The need for athleticism is why Will Allen continues to be the team's top corner. The need for athleticism is why the team tried like heck to bring Andre Goodman back despite his age. The need for athleticism is one reason they picked up a 4.4 to 4.5 speedster at safety by the name of Gibril Wilson. The need for athleticism in the secondary is why they drafted the most physically gifted cornerback in the draft at #25 overall, and the reason they drafted another 4.47 guy that also happened to be nearly 6'4" tall at #61 overall. The need for athleticism in the secondary is why the 4.33 speedster Chris Clemons will now be wearing aqua and orange. The need for athleticism in the defensive backfield is why Jason Allen has not been cut yet. Even newcomer Eric Green, who only ran a 4.52 at the Combine at 5'11" and 198 pounds, still had an incredible 3.90 shuttle, 6.68 cone drill, 38 inch vertical and 10'2" broad jump. Overall, I take it as a positive that the Dolphins have added three bodies to the defensive backfield that can run with and cover just about anyone in the entire NFL.
*I liked that the Dolphins did not participate in this defensive line class, particularly the tackles. When I was evaluating this class, I came away believing it to be an extremely weak and thin class, overall. The only decent nose tackle prospect in the class (aside from Raji, who would best be served as a 4-3 DT) was Ron Brace and in any other draft he would have gone further down than the top of the 2nd round, because even though he is probably the only player aside from Raji that can play the position, he does not necessarily have the ability to be a high impact guy. I think that all of these other nose prospects that everyone have been talking about, that is just a fine example of us seeing what we wish for, not what was actually there. I said several times before the draft that the Dolphins would not draft a nose prospect, and I am glad that they did not.
Things I Didn't Like
*How you can head into a draft that has one of the best receiver classes I have seen in a long time, needing some high impact players at that position, and only coming away with Patrick Turner and Brian Hartline, is something that is honestly beyond me. As I said on the individual pick basis, alone I can defend the Turner selection, but in combination with Hartline, I cannot. It is the opportunity cost that drives me crazy. Taking those two meant passing on so many other guys that I liked so much more. Even now, I do not see us going after a Brennan Marion as an undrafted free agent because the position is too crowded and I am sure he wants a better shot at making a team.
*A likely career backup quarterback with a mid-2nd round selection. Ouch. Even if he does provide something for the Wildcat. Unless he can run like Ronnie Brown *and* throw like Pat White, I think what he brings to the Wildcat is mostly just different, not necessarily better. Different will be good in the short run, as it will keep teams in catch-up mode for the Wildcat. But after 2009? What will we have? A career backup quarterback.
*No interior OL help. I don't understand this. They know damn well that last year Andy Alleman and Ike Ndukwe were not doing it for us at Guard. Yet, no help for the position. Justin Smiley is injury prone. Jake Grove has an injury history. Donald Thomas missed his one pro season due to injury. What am I missing here? You expect to get 48 games out of these three?!? I sure hope Shawn Murphy comes alive or Joe Berger is better than I remember. Oh, and THANK GOD we traded away Samson Satele, who would have been excellent depth at all three interior OL positions, in order to move up in the 4th round so that we could get the human dynamo Brian Hartline. Seriously, A+++ move on that one.
Overall Grade: C-/D+
Yes, yes. Flame away. I'm a jerk. I don't know what I'm talking about. I'm just an amateur. Blah, blah, blah. I told you at the beginning that it is an entirely arbitrary and flawed exercise to grade a draft the day after it happens. I was actually surprised that the grade came out more toward a "C-" than a "D+". I just gave 0 to 4 values based on the grade for each pick, and then weighted each grade 7 to 1 based on what round it was in, and I came out with a 1.8 or 1.9.
These grades are just based on how I viewed the draft, as it happened, based on the long draft season I have had doing lots of research and watching hundreds of hours of games along with my cohorts from UniversalDraft, Boomer and Conuficus. This grade is nothing more than a measure that shows how well the draft jived with my thought process before the draft. A draft can't REALLY be graded and evaluated until three or four years down the road.
