ckparrothead
Premium Member
Now that the numbers have been crunched as well as they can be crunched at this early stage, I have ten standouts to draw attention to. At this early juncture, I've not split the players off into position-relative pools yet.
#1. Tops on my list is DE/OLB Brian Robison. It really comes out that way no matter how you weight it. He really went out there and nailed the Combine. He drew high scores for being 6'3" and 259 pounds, running a 1.49 second 10 yard split, having a 40.5 inch vertical, while having pretty darn positive marks on his shuttle (4.26), cone (6.89), and his bench press (27 reps). He was probably the best all-around athlete at the Combine.
#2. This one isn't much of a surprise based on what I've been hearing and that is LB Quincy Black had highly unusual Combine performances. At nearly 6'2" and 250 pounds, he ran a 4.42, had a monstrous 41.5 inch vertical, a 10'4" broad jump, and 6.86 second cone drill. He also did a decent 24 bench reps. Unfortunately, he just doesn't look that good on tape.
#3. SS Sabby Piscitelli, on the other hand, looks great on tape, and looked extremely good in his individual workouts. As I mentioned in another thread, Tom Marino said you really couldn't see the difference between him as a safety as opposed to the corners in the cornerback drills. That includes his backpedal, transition, hips, and COD skills. His agility and speed times were just as good. At 6'3" and 224 lbs, he ran an amazing 1.49 in the 10 yard split, 4.47 in the 40, and had a HIGHLY unusual 3.90 second short shuttle. That was the fastest short shuttle at the entire Combine. This guy has to be skyrocketing up some boards as the scouts watch more tape of him at Oregon State. He was a real playmaker.
#4. My fourth seems to be in line to become a Patriot, as he's already Amanda Belichick's best friend. This would be LB Zak DeOssie of Brown University. He drew high marks for great height at just under 6'5", and a solid collection of virtually every other measurement. He did not have a single below-average measurement, with his best marks coming from his broad jump (10'2"), shuttle (4.22) and cone (6.89).
#5. Every time I kept getting more updates on measurements, WR Laurent Robinson of Illinois State kept sticking out at me. He's got great height at 6'2" and he really blazed the 40 yard dash with 1.46/2.50/4.38 times at the 10/20/40 splits. That 10 yard split was only 0.03 seconds off the fastest 10 yard split at the Combine (Marcus McCauley). Laurent had a 39 inch vertical and 10'7" broad jump.
#6. FS John Wendling of Wyoming promised to have a good Combine and he really did. He drew small negatives in comparison to the entire Combine List for height and weight, but from there he rocked out with a 4.16 shuttle, 6.96 cone, 10'9" broad jump, 38.5 inch vertical, and a 1.51 in the 10 yard split.
#7. It comes as nno surprise to that DE/DT Adam Carriker nailed his way into the top ten here. He drew high marks for being 6'6" and 296 pounds, doing 33 bench reps, having a lightning 4.18 shuttle time, with solid cone drill times (7.06) and none of his other times really detracted him much despite the mammoth size.
#8. I think we saw this coming, but CB Marcus McCauley makes his way up onto this 'planet theory' type list (although in the traditional sense, the 'planet theory' is supposed to only apply to really, really big men). He's big for a corner at 6'1" and 203 pounds but actually draws negative scores relative to the entire pool for those scores, but the rest of his measurements were rather on the unreal side. He did a decent amount of bench reps, above par for CBs, with 17. His 10 yard split was the fastest in the entire draft at 1.43 seconds (could be the fastest I've ever seen). He did a 4.39 in the 40, 4.17 shuttle, and very notably a 6.61 cone drill. He added 36 inch and 10'9" jumps for good measure. What an athlete.
#9. It does come as somewhat of a surprise to me that WR Aaron Fairooz of Central Arkansas made the top ten. This guy was drawing attention well before the Combine, this is nothing you could say came out of nowhere...but he had a better Combine than I believe was expected of him. He drew very high marks for being 6'6" tall, but at that height he ran a 1.50 in the 10 yard split, a 2.59 in the 20 yard split, and a 4.49 in the 40. He also drew very high marks for his broad jump of 10'5", his 36 inch vertical, and his 6.89 cone drill. He likely would have been bumped down a few notches had he participated in the bench press, however.
#10. Small school LB Justin Durant rounds out the top ten on my list, but it should be noted that we're getting into an area where things can change based on how much you size-weight the results. Particular notables on Durant were that at 230 pounds he did a 36 inch vertical, 10'1" broad, a blazing 4.09 shuttle (0.02 seconds off the fastest shuttle time from anyone not named "Sabby"), and 6.77 cone. His 10/20/40 were also very good.
Here are some notes:
*This is, again, very early to be doing this. I have yet to add in hand and arm length measurements, and I'll consider adding wonderlics if we ever get reliable wonderlic data (which could be doubtful, they've taken new measures to keep them as top secret as possible). Also, pro day times will help to fill in a lot of the gaps where there are missing data. I combated the potential positives inherent in the model for missing data with a participation score, as usual.
*I want you guys also to keep in mind the significance of stacking these guys relative to the entire Combine invitee list as opposed to just their position mates. That's why I referred to this as sort of a "planet theory" list. Size counts for a lot on this list because if you're comparing everyone against everyone, you're looking for those size/speed combinations that are thought to be more "uncommon"...so if you're looking for Chris Houston to be #1 on it, stop right there because he may have put up highly impressive numbers but not really relative to his size, IMO.
*It should be noted that despite my heavy bias AGAINST those that did not participate in many of the drills, Calvin Johnson still ranked in the top 15, based solely on on his 10/20/40, his 6'5" and 239 measurements. If he had participated in all drills and only got average WR scores for bench, shuttle, and cone (doubtful...I'd expect above average marks for Cal) then he'd have rated #3 overall just a teensy bit behind Quincy Black. When/if Cal produces some pro day measurements, he could very well shoot above Brian Robison. In fact, I'm comfortable saying he "probably" will.
Top Five by Position
Receiver:
1. Laurent Robinson
2. Aaron Fairooz
3. Legedu Naanee
4. Dallas Baker
5. Calvin Johnson (participation flag; Anthony Gonzalez next best)
Tight End:
1. Greg Olsen
2. Michael Allen
3. Kevin Boss
4. Scott Chandler
5. Clark Harris
Tackle:
1. Brandon Frye
2. Tony Ugoh
3. Joe Thomas
4. Doug Free
5. Adam Koets
Guard:
1. Justin Blalock
2. Andy Alleman
3. Dan Santucci
4. Cameron Stephenson
5. Ben Grubbs
Center:
1. Ryan Kalil
2. Samson Satele
3. Doug Datish
4. Drew Mormino
5. Scott Stephenson
Runner:
1. Brian Leonard
2. Chris Henry
3. Adrian Peterson
4. Kenny Irons
5. Antonio Pittman
Fullback:
1. Derek Schouman
2. Cory Anderson
3. Gijon Robinson
4. Deon Anderson
5. Le'Ron McClain
Quarterback:
1. Jared Zabransky
2. Jeff Rowe
3. Drew Stanton
4. John Beck
5. Kevin Kolb
Defensive Tackle:
1. Turk McBride
2. Alan Branch
3. Quinn Pit****
4. Antonio Johnson
5. Paul Soliai
Defensive End:
1. Brian Robison
2. Adam Carriker
3. CJ Ah-You
4. Gaines Adams
5. Jay Moore
Outside Linebacker:
1. Quincy Black
2. Antwan Barnes
3. Tim Shaw
4. Stewart Bradley
5. Dallas Sartz
Inside Linebacker:
1. Zak DeOssie
2. Justin Durant
3. Patrick Willis
4. David Harris
5. Desmond Bishop (participation flag; Michael Okwo next best)
Strong Safety:
1. Sabby Piscitelli
2. Michael Griffin
3. Darren Stone
4. Aaron Rouse
5. Craig Dahl
Free Safety:
1. John Wendling
2. Gerald Alexander
3. Josh Gattis
4. LaRon Landry (hit hard by participation...but wouldn't get above Wendling)
5. C.J. Gaddis
Cornerback:
1. Marcus McCauley
2. Leon Hall
3. Chris Houston
4. C.J. Wilson
5. Aaron Ross
The Worst Athlete in the Draft: G Paulani Ma Sun, Oregon
Final Comments: This draft is loaded with athletes. Probably the deepest athlete draft I've seen. Leon Hall drew particular surprise on his marks across the board. I think he re-asserted himself as the best corner in the draft, as Tom Marino said. It's an odd year when some of the most notable overall athletes in the draft are ILBs (DeOssie & Durant). Jeff Rowe had surprising athleticism marks, as did Stanton and Beck. Rowe actually rates about as good an athlete as Marshawn Lynch, if you consider size/speed combo scarcity. The shuttle & cone drill times of Rowe and Beck were just unnatural. You might expect those from Zabransky (who is a top 40 athlete)...but from Beck and Rowe? Pretty notable. I think Justin Blalock made himself some money, really stayed strong within what you would expect him to do pretty well with, and didn't show big weakness in some other things you might have thought he would.
#1. Tops on my list is DE/OLB Brian Robison. It really comes out that way no matter how you weight it. He really went out there and nailed the Combine. He drew high scores for being 6'3" and 259 pounds, running a 1.49 second 10 yard split, having a 40.5 inch vertical, while having pretty darn positive marks on his shuttle (4.26), cone (6.89), and his bench press (27 reps). He was probably the best all-around athlete at the Combine.
#2. This one isn't much of a surprise based on what I've been hearing and that is LB Quincy Black had highly unusual Combine performances. At nearly 6'2" and 250 pounds, he ran a 4.42, had a monstrous 41.5 inch vertical, a 10'4" broad jump, and 6.86 second cone drill. He also did a decent 24 bench reps. Unfortunately, he just doesn't look that good on tape.
#3. SS Sabby Piscitelli, on the other hand, looks great on tape, and looked extremely good in his individual workouts. As I mentioned in another thread, Tom Marino said you really couldn't see the difference between him as a safety as opposed to the corners in the cornerback drills. That includes his backpedal, transition, hips, and COD skills. His agility and speed times were just as good. At 6'3" and 224 lbs, he ran an amazing 1.49 in the 10 yard split, 4.47 in the 40, and had a HIGHLY unusual 3.90 second short shuttle. That was the fastest short shuttle at the entire Combine. This guy has to be skyrocketing up some boards as the scouts watch more tape of him at Oregon State. He was a real playmaker.
#4. My fourth seems to be in line to become a Patriot, as he's already Amanda Belichick's best friend. This would be LB Zak DeOssie of Brown University. He drew high marks for great height at just under 6'5", and a solid collection of virtually every other measurement. He did not have a single below-average measurement, with his best marks coming from his broad jump (10'2"), shuttle (4.22) and cone (6.89).
#5. Every time I kept getting more updates on measurements, WR Laurent Robinson of Illinois State kept sticking out at me. He's got great height at 6'2" and he really blazed the 40 yard dash with 1.46/2.50/4.38 times at the 10/20/40 splits. That 10 yard split was only 0.03 seconds off the fastest 10 yard split at the Combine (Marcus McCauley). Laurent had a 39 inch vertical and 10'7" broad jump.
#6. FS John Wendling of Wyoming promised to have a good Combine and he really did. He drew small negatives in comparison to the entire Combine List for height and weight, but from there he rocked out with a 4.16 shuttle, 6.96 cone, 10'9" broad jump, 38.5 inch vertical, and a 1.51 in the 10 yard split.
#7. It comes as nno surprise to that DE/DT Adam Carriker nailed his way into the top ten here. He drew high marks for being 6'6" and 296 pounds, doing 33 bench reps, having a lightning 4.18 shuttle time, with solid cone drill times (7.06) and none of his other times really detracted him much despite the mammoth size.
#8. I think we saw this coming, but CB Marcus McCauley makes his way up onto this 'planet theory' type list (although in the traditional sense, the 'planet theory' is supposed to only apply to really, really big men). He's big for a corner at 6'1" and 203 pounds but actually draws negative scores relative to the entire pool for those scores, but the rest of his measurements were rather on the unreal side. He did a decent amount of bench reps, above par for CBs, with 17. His 10 yard split was the fastest in the entire draft at 1.43 seconds (could be the fastest I've ever seen). He did a 4.39 in the 40, 4.17 shuttle, and very notably a 6.61 cone drill. He added 36 inch and 10'9" jumps for good measure. What an athlete.
#9. It does come as somewhat of a surprise to me that WR Aaron Fairooz of Central Arkansas made the top ten. This guy was drawing attention well before the Combine, this is nothing you could say came out of nowhere...but he had a better Combine than I believe was expected of him. He drew very high marks for being 6'6" tall, but at that height he ran a 1.50 in the 10 yard split, a 2.59 in the 20 yard split, and a 4.49 in the 40. He also drew very high marks for his broad jump of 10'5", his 36 inch vertical, and his 6.89 cone drill. He likely would have been bumped down a few notches had he participated in the bench press, however.
#10. Small school LB Justin Durant rounds out the top ten on my list, but it should be noted that we're getting into an area where things can change based on how much you size-weight the results. Particular notables on Durant were that at 230 pounds he did a 36 inch vertical, 10'1" broad, a blazing 4.09 shuttle (0.02 seconds off the fastest shuttle time from anyone not named "Sabby"), and 6.77 cone. His 10/20/40 were also very good.
Here are some notes:
*This is, again, very early to be doing this. I have yet to add in hand and arm length measurements, and I'll consider adding wonderlics if we ever get reliable wonderlic data (which could be doubtful, they've taken new measures to keep them as top secret as possible). Also, pro day times will help to fill in a lot of the gaps where there are missing data. I combated the potential positives inherent in the model for missing data with a participation score, as usual.
*I want you guys also to keep in mind the significance of stacking these guys relative to the entire Combine invitee list as opposed to just their position mates. That's why I referred to this as sort of a "planet theory" list. Size counts for a lot on this list because if you're comparing everyone against everyone, you're looking for those size/speed combinations that are thought to be more "uncommon"...so if you're looking for Chris Houston to be #1 on it, stop right there because he may have put up highly impressive numbers but not really relative to his size, IMO.
*It should be noted that despite my heavy bias AGAINST those that did not participate in many of the drills, Calvin Johnson still ranked in the top 15, based solely on on his 10/20/40, his 6'5" and 239 measurements. If he had participated in all drills and only got average WR scores for bench, shuttle, and cone (doubtful...I'd expect above average marks for Cal) then he'd have rated #3 overall just a teensy bit behind Quincy Black. When/if Cal produces some pro day measurements, he could very well shoot above Brian Robison. In fact, I'm comfortable saying he "probably" will.
Top Five by Position
Receiver:
1. Laurent Robinson
2. Aaron Fairooz
3. Legedu Naanee
4. Dallas Baker
5. Calvin Johnson (participation flag; Anthony Gonzalez next best)
Tight End:
1. Greg Olsen
2. Michael Allen
3. Kevin Boss
4. Scott Chandler
5. Clark Harris
Tackle:
1. Brandon Frye
2. Tony Ugoh
3. Joe Thomas
4. Doug Free
5. Adam Koets
Guard:
1. Justin Blalock
2. Andy Alleman
3. Dan Santucci
4. Cameron Stephenson
5. Ben Grubbs
Center:
1. Ryan Kalil
2. Samson Satele
3. Doug Datish
4. Drew Mormino
5. Scott Stephenson
Runner:
1. Brian Leonard
2. Chris Henry
3. Adrian Peterson
4. Kenny Irons
5. Antonio Pittman
Fullback:
1. Derek Schouman
2. Cory Anderson
3. Gijon Robinson
4. Deon Anderson
5. Le'Ron McClain
Quarterback:
1. Jared Zabransky
2. Jeff Rowe
3. Drew Stanton
4. John Beck
5. Kevin Kolb
Defensive Tackle:
1. Turk McBride
2. Alan Branch
3. Quinn Pit****
4. Antonio Johnson
5. Paul Soliai
Defensive End:
1. Brian Robison
2. Adam Carriker
3. CJ Ah-You
4. Gaines Adams
5. Jay Moore
Outside Linebacker:
1. Quincy Black
2. Antwan Barnes
3. Tim Shaw
4. Stewart Bradley
5. Dallas Sartz
Inside Linebacker:
1. Zak DeOssie
2. Justin Durant
3. Patrick Willis
4. David Harris
5. Desmond Bishop (participation flag; Michael Okwo next best)
Strong Safety:
1. Sabby Piscitelli
2. Michael Griffin
3. Darren Stone
4. Aaron Rouse
5. Craig Dahl
Free Safety:
1. John Wendling
2. Gerald Alexander
3. Josh Gattis
4. LaRon Landry (hit hard by participation...but wouldn't get above Wendling)
5. C.J. Gaddis
Cornerback:
1. Marcus McCauley
2. Leon Hall
3. Chris Houston
4. C.J. Wilson
5. Aaron Ross
The Worst Athlete in the Draft: G Paulani Ma Sun, Oregon
Final Comments: This draft is loaded with athletes. Probably the deepest athlete draft I've seen. Leon Hall drew particular surprise on his marks across the board. I think he re-asserted himself as the best corner in the draft, as Tom Marino said. It's an odd year when some of the most notable overall athletes in the draft are ILBs (DeOssie & Durant). Jeff Rowe had surprising athleticism marks, as did Stanton and Beck. Rowe actually rates about as good an athlete as Marshawn Lynch, if you consider size/speed combo scarcity. The shuttle & cone drill times of Rowe and Beck were just unnatural. You might expect those from Zabransky (who is a top 40 athlete)...but from Beck and Rowe? Pretty notable. I think Justin Blalock made himself some money, really stayed strong within what you would expect him to do pretty well with, and didn't show big weakness in some other things you might have thought he would.
