RoninFin4
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The Dolphins & the Draft: Part 1
By RoninFin4 aka Kevin Dern
By RoninFin4 aka Kevin Dern
Well, Dolfans, it’s been a while since my last column - the SOLB piece, which got over 2,500 views - thanks to all of you for that. Also, thanks to anyone who has gone over to visit my personal draft site - we just got our 5,000 visitor two weeks ago and a new mock should be up there soon.
As with the Dolphins, a lot’s happened with me since that column. I have a new job, which is nice, and am almost ready (I think) to take the GMAT next week. We’ll see how that goes. But with the Dolphins, as I’m sure you all know, they’ve re-signed Yeremiah Bell, Vernon Carey, Channing Crowder, tendered Brandon London and Ikechuku Ndukwe and added the likes of Gibril Wilson, Jake Grove, Eric Green, and Joe Berger.
What this has done, in my opinion, is solidify certain parts of the team and has added us with some depth. Obviously the continuity of keeping guys like Bell, Carey, and Crowder will go a long way in making this team into a winner. The additions of Grove and Wilson should help upgrade the O-line and the Secondary (arguably two of the weaker spots at the end of 2008) for the upcoming season.
That said, and let’s not kid ourselves, for an 11-5 team, the Dolphins have a lot of holes that still need to be filled. Is there a pass-rushing LB capable of staying on the field for 3 downs opposite Joey Porter? Is there a CB that can shutdown the likes of Randy Moss and Terrell Owens four games a year? Who is that true #1 WR? If Long or Carey goes down, who steps in? The same can be asked of Jason Ferguson; there’s no young NT to groom in my opinion.
It’s been said that Bill Parcells, Jeff Ireland, and Tony Sparano would like to add somewhere in the ballpark of 18 new players to the 2009 Dolphins roster. 9 of those might be the 9 draft picks Miami is slated to have - but where do the rest come from?
Well, to answer that, I say just look at the players remaining on our roster from the 2006 and 2007 drafts to find out. Let’s take a look:
2006 Draft Class members currently on the roster:
1. CB Jason Allen
2. DE Rodrique Wright
Gone: WR Derek Hagan, G Joe Toledo, DL Fred Evans, WR Devin Aromashodu and of course Daunte Culpepper (effectively our 2nd round pick that year).
This is arguably one of the worst Dolphin drafts ever. It certainly spelled the end for Nick Saban.
2007 Draft Class Members still on the roster:
1. WR Ted Ginn
2. QB John Beck
3. NT Paul Soliai
4. P Brandon Fields
Gone: C Samson Satele, RB Lorenzo Booker, C Drew Mormino, FB Reagan Mauia, LB Kelvin Smith, LB Abraham Wright.
Probably can be considered in the top 5 worst, but with Satele’s production of 32 starts, and Ginn still treading water, this class has been effective on the field. Soliai is okay in spurts, and Fields is the starting punter. That said, you shouldn’t have to waste a draft pick on a starting punter, and the fact that virtually none of those who’ve left from this class have seen the field speaks volumes to how bad Randy Mueller’s draft class was.
Combined, these two classes in 16 picks have left Miami with only 6 players on the roster. That number might be trimmed to 2 or 3 very soon - here’s why I think that with regard to each player:
Jason Allen has worn out his welcome in my opinion. When you can’t beat out Nate Jones to get your job as nickel CB back after being a 1st round draft pick - the writing is on the wall; it’s just a matter of time. He either gets it real quick or he won’t be here.
Rodrique Wright is a project, but it’s telling that Lionel Dotson got activated for two games last year when Paul Soliai was suspended and not Wright - the position flexibility factor, and that Wright’s only appearance was when Randy Starks was injured for the wild-card game. This seemingly tells you that Wright is strictly a DE for this regime, and he’s behind Merling, Langford, Starks, and rotationally Tony McDaniel and Lionel Dotson already.
Ted Ginn, after the trade of Samson Satele to the Raiders, is really the only starter left out of 16 picks - that’s horrible! And even then, I still feel that his value either hasn’t been reached yet, or he’s just not going to be everything we envisioned in the 9th overall pick (he doesn’t return kicks or punts, his routes still need honing, and he’s not overly physical or dynamic after the catch unless he’s already in space, etc. etc.). I can live with taking a #2 WR 9th overall - problem is, we have no #1 WR.
John Beck has enough threads on here that he could start his own forum. Be that as it may, whether you think he sucks, think he has potential, will be a Henne’s backup ,or hasn’t gotten a fair shake, etc. he’s going to have to take a pay cut at some point or a move might be made for salary cap reasons if nothing else. Either way, this regime didn’t have confidence in him and drafted a QB in the 2nd round last year, in Henne, who would’ve been the starter in 2008 had Pennington never been cut by the Jets - and that’s from Tony Sparano’s mouth, not me writing it.
I hated the Paul Soliai pick, granted, I hated the entire 2007 draft save for Satele whom no longer fit our ideal offensive system, but Soliai has lived up to every expectation I’ve had for him, which was pretty much nothing. I think with Ferguson starting for hopefully one more full season, and two young guys with potential to play the nose in Lionel Dotson and Joe Cohen, Soliai’s days are numbered, especially if a prospect slips to Miami on draft day.
We really wasted a draft pick on a punter?
When all is said and done, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Ted Ginn is the only member of the 2006 and 2007 draft classes that’s on the 53 man roster going into week one or 2009. So, coupled with 9 draft picks, that’s potentially 5 more empty slots (for a total of 14) and that’s not counting guys on the roster from last year like Brandon Frye, Shawn Murphy, Quentin Moses, Nate Garner, Joey Thomas, Courtney Bryan, and William Kershaw that could, and should, be upgraded upon. So, even if we keep some of the 2006-07 guys, for instance say Beck and Soliai or Beck and Wright or Soliai and Wright - any combination really, that leaves us with potentially 18 spots that could be filled - imagine that.
For a quick recap, here’s 18 guys I think could have their roster spots be replaced with someone else:
(In no particular order, relax Beck supporters! Just going down the depth chart)
1. QB John Beck
2. FB Lousaka Polite
3. WR Ernest Wilford
4. TE Joey Haynos
5. OT Brandon Frye
6. G Shawn Murphy
7. G/C Andy Alleman
8. G Ike Ndukwe
9. DE Rodrique Wright
10. NT Paul Soliai
11. LB Quentin Moses
12. LB William Kershaw
13. CB Joey Thomas
14. CB Jason Allen
15. S Courtney Bryan
16. S Ethan Kilmer
17. P Brandon Fields
18. LS John Denney
Just for the sake of reiteration with why this regime didn’t believe in spending big dollars in free agency (in a bloated-salary, under-talented market) let’s take a look back at the 2008 draft. Considering all of the picks used via trades, moving up or down, and the UDFA class that was acquired, we had a total of 15 picks involved in the draft whether they were used for trades (we got two starters for a 4th rounder from Dallas), upping an offer (moving up in the 4th round for - which will look like magic after you read my explanation) and getting a starter out of a 6th rounder in exchange for a 2009 pick that we already have back.
I can’t imagine this makes much sense, so for those who learn visually (I’m in this group) here’s how all of the 9 picks we used in 2008 could’ve been used to acquire the players we did. When you look at it this way, this regime really hit a homerun. Bear in mind that we used our original 3rd rounder to move down two spots and acquire an additional 6th rounder.
See for yourself.
1. Jake Long - 1st overall pick
2. Phillip Merling - 32nd overall pick
2. Chad Henne - 57th overall pick
3. - used in trade down with Detroit -
3. Kendall Langford - 66th overall pick (acquired from Detroit in trade down)
4. Akin Ayodele - 100th overall pick (got us both Fasano and Ayodele from Dallas)
4. Anthony Fasano - 110th overall pick (originally Shawn Murphy)
4. - used to trade up for Anthony Fasano -
5. - Given away in 2007 for QB Trent Green -
6. Jason Ferguson - 167th overall pick (for sending pick to Dallas)
6. Davone Bess - 176th overall pick (originally Jalen Parmele - acquired from Detroit)
6. Donald Thomas - 195th overall pick (netted from Dallas in pick swap)
6. Dan Carpenter - 204th overall pick (originally Lex Hilliard)
7. - used to trade up for Anthony Fasano -
7. Lionel Dotson - 245th overall pick
Essentially the picks that were given for nothing were the third 4th pick and our first 7th round picked used to trade up for Shawn Murphy (or in this case Anthony Fasano which makes it seem well worth it) and our 5th rounder which was given away by Randy Mueller in 2007 for QB Trent Green.
So, all things considered, the only draft pick in this scenario that wasn’t used was the 5th round pick if you consider our original deal with Dallas to be a 4th rounder for Akin Ayodele - which wasn’t a bad move because we probably couldn’t found a rookie LB to play the way Ayodele did all year.
This makes it look like an even better draft that what we actually had - which was DAMN good to begin with. I’m not for advocating drafting kickers, but Dan Carpenter in the 6th round was a much better value than Lex Hilliard. The value pays off when you think about it.
Given the way this regime used draft picks, and maybe learning a lesson or two about how they could’ve been used - I see no reason to fault any moves made by the Trifecta in their tenure in Miami save for signing Ernest Wilford.
I think that this gives them the confidence they need to know that they can successfully build this team through the draft, and using draft picks and UDFA’s netted us the 11 players above.
So, after all of this, let’s get to my version of the Dolphins mock for all picks the Dolphins have acquired through 3/25.
At this point, it’s darn near impossible to predict trades, so I won’t try - I’ll just say, based on last year’s draft, it wouldn’t surprise me if Miami would try to trade up or down in the middle rounds, as they did last year in both the 3rd and 4th rounds. Would they trade up in the 1st round? At this point, I doubt it, unless they acquire more picks between now and then.
Dolphins-only Mock Draft
1st round, 25th overall pick: Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut - It’s no secret to anyone that Bill Parcells-led teams love defensive players, especially those in the front 7. At the 25th pick in the draft, the Dolphins are sort of caught in the middle of the talent tiers. The elite OLB prospects and most likely the trio of USC linebackers are off the board at this point (you’ll see my entire 1st round mock draft in part two) so, I think it’s a viable backup plan to look at CB at this point. Darius Butler, Alphonso Smith, and D.J. Moore should all be available. The concern for me, is that with bigger receivers like Moss, Owens, and Cotchery in the division, a CB who is big is a priority. Malcolm Jenkins to me is the best CB in the draft, and if he slips past 20, I think Miami makes a move. For now, I think Darius Butler is the pick.
Butler reportedly ran a 4.38 at the Huskies pro day, and had an astounding 43 inch vertical in Indy. He’s very experienced, having been a 3-year starter, and offers that ever important “position flexibility” as he spent time at WR and KR as a senior (which I think translates into him seeing time as KR/PR). He’s physical enough at the point, and has good recovery speed, as well as straight-line speed. He’s not going to make many plays in the running game, but neither did Andre’ Goodman. The nice part here with Butler is that you can slot him in the nickel role since Eric Green is on the roster, but eventually he’s going to be a starter as a rookie.
2nd round, 44th overall pick: Connor Barwin, OLB, Cincinnati - If you caught Boomer’s fantastic interview of Connor Barwin in the Sun-Sentinel, you’ll understand why the Parcells front office is high on a kid like this. It might be a bit of stretch for Barwin to fall this far, but with only so much experience at DE with the Bearcats, and only one “good” season at TE, teams might be a little more wary of him than meets the eye. What’s especially telling to me is that DC Paul Pasqualoni AND TE Coach George DeLeone have both worked out Barwin. He’s got ample size at 6’3” and 255lbs with excellent athleticism. To me, he’s essentially the next Mike Vrabel, which I’d love to have on our team. He’ll have to learn the nuances of playing OLB in a 3-4, which isn’t really a problem as Joey Porter probably offers at least another season of starting capability at the WOLB spot until Barwin would be ready. Barwin was very capable of making special teams plays with the Bearcats this past year.
The flip-side of this pick is that even if Barwin flops as an OLB, he could very well make an impact at TE, which he played for two full seasons with the Bearcats before moving to the defensive side of the ball. Remember, Mike Vrabel is something like 11 of 11 in terms of converting goaline receptions into scores. With both Anthony Fasano and David Martin set to be free agents after 2009, it’s not a bad idea to cover your bases this way. Again, there’s that “position flexibility” term thrown around again. If Barwin’s not here, I’d look for a guy like Clint Sintim or Cody Brown.
2nd round, 56th overall pick: Juaquin Iglesias, WR, Oklahoma - I’d really like it if a guy like Kenny Britt fell this far, but even with his diva-like persona, I doubt it happens. Iglesias isn’t the most flashy of prospects, but who in the Dolphins receiving corps is really all that flashy? Ginn? Sort of…everyone else? Nope. But Iglesias was a three year starter, and was very productive and reminds me of a less heralded Hakeem Nicks.
Iglesias goes about the same size as Nicks, runs routes fairly well, and isn’t afraid to go over the middle. Like Nicks he might have a little trouble getting separation from NFL DB’s but in our offense, he’ll get maximized to his strengths. He’s also a pretty good downfield blocker, which is important to our ground game. You’d like to see him break a few more tackles after the catch but he’s a solid prospect all in all. It’s probably too early, but I’d keep an eye on LSU’s Demetrius Byrd at this juncture as well.
3rd round, 87th overall pick: Andy Levitre, G, Oregon State - Another one of the prospects that’s been interviewed twice. Of course, this may not mean anything as the Dolphins famously skipped Michigan’s pro day last year prompting Armando Salguero to say they had no interest in Jake Long whatsoever. We’ll see what that means this year. Levitre is a college T that will slide inside to G in the NFL. He’s very strong and stout at the point of attack (a phone booth player) but has a little trouble getting to the 2nd level. However, if he does get there, he’s pretty effective.
I view this pick as a sort of insurance policy in case there’s any mishaps in Justin Smiley’s rehab or anything of that sort. He’s definitely an upgrade to Shawn Murphy, and probably both Andy Alleman and Joe Berger. However, a pick like Levitre pretty much ensures a move of Andy Alleman to backup C, his college position, and would allow Levitre to battle Berger, Ndukwe, and Murphy for that top backup G spot. As I mentioned before, he played some T at Oregon State, and again, there’s that “position flexibility” term.
4th round: Frantz Joseph, ILB, Florida Atlantic - A local boy here. Many on this board wanted to get rid of Channing Crowder; I questioned why they’d want to get rid of our most consistent defender. Granted, he’s not going to make game-changing plays, but he makes stops when it counts. The 4th and 1 against the Chargers from the goaline comes to mind. But, Akin Ayodele is getting up there in years, and is a free agent within the next two. Either way, we saw Reggie Torbor get exposed when he saw full-time action against the Chiefs when Ayodele had to fill in for an injured Crowder.
Joseph represents a long-term, and potentially, short-term replacement for Akin Ayodele. He’s got the size at 6’2” and 245lbs, and is constantly around the football. Joseph has had an interesting career, but was pretty productive his last two seasons with Florida Atlantic, posting 258 tackles his last 26 games, for an average of 9.9 tackles per game. Pretty damn good I’d say. He’s also posted 2.5 sacks, 6 pass deflections, and 2 INTs over those last two seasons as well, so I’d say he’s got some play-making potential.
Just fast-forwarding in my head, but a 2010 starting LB corps of Connor Barwin, Frantz Joseph, Channing Crowder and Cameron Wake doesn’t sound all that bad (though I’ve still got my eye on one of Boomer’s early predicted gems, Da’Quan Bowers of Clemson, who I think would be a Shawn Merriman clone at 3-4 SOLB if Cameron Wake doesn’t work out according to plan. Bowers would be a junior in 2010).
5th round: Sammie Lee Hill, NT, Stillman - A massive prospect at 6’3” and an M&M under 330lbs, he’s a more unheralded prospect. Then again, so was Dallas’ Jay Ratliff, who blossomed from a 7th round pick into a Pro Bowl level NT for the Cowboys. Who drafted him by the way? Parcells & Ireland.
Albeit against lesser competition, Hill possesses a lot of the attributes that the Parcells regime really likes. He’s experienced (40 games played), productive (191 tackles, 44.5 for loss), and shows flashes of collapsing the pocket (17.5 sacks, including 7.5 as a senior).
I feel like some tutoring from Jason Ferguson would be really beneficial to a player like Hill. The Dolphins also have a pair of young guys already on the roster that might get some looks at NT in Lionel Dotson (who was activated both times when Paul Soliai was suspended, and not when Randy Starks sat out injured wild-card weekend) and a late-year practice squad addition from San Francisco, former Florida Gator NT Joe Cohen. So, in my eyes, Hill is a low-risk, high-reward type of gamble with a 5th round pick. By the way, it seems like it’s been a while since Miami has actually kept a 5th round pick.
6th round: Don Carey, CB, Norfolk State - I started studying this guy after reading one of CK’s posts about him, and Carey is definitely one of those late round prospects with good triangle numbers that the Parcells regime loves, as Boomer has pointed out many a time in his Draft Winds blogs.
At 5’11” and 192lbs, Carey has the size that Miami’s sought in it’s CB’s, very similar to Will Allen and Eric Green, as well as the departed Andre’ Goodman. Carey is also very intelligent, having turned down Yale due to financial circumstances, to play ball at Norfolk State.
Again, another experienced guy with 44 games played, along with 25 pass breakups, and 8 INTs (5 returned for a total of 115 yards as a senior). As a sophomore he also saw some time at FS, so again, here’s another case of that “position flexibility” again.
7th round: Sebastian Vollmer, T, Houston - Another guy CK has led me onto is the Cougar’s tackle. Boomer noted that many of Dallas’ mid to late round OL prospects are the taller, leaner sort (think Jake Long, just not nearly as good) and are usually tackles that can slide inside to G if need be. Just a few names over the recent years include Doug Free, James Marten, Pat McQuistan, and recent ‘Fins acquisition, Joe Berger.
Vollmer, who goes 6’7” and about 315lbs, was a TE and blocking back for the Cougars as a sophomore, and started all 26 games at LT as a junior and senior. Again, there’s some position flexibility here, and he’s a project that could eventually develop into a swing tackle player for the Dolphins.
7th round Reshard Langford, S, Vanderbilt - A bigger guy at 6’1” and 210lbs, roughly the same size as Tyrone Culver, Langford is a guy who could be in the mix for playing time in the secondary as the 4th S player. His immediate role would be to challenge both Ethan Kilmer and Courtney Bryan for time on special teams.
Again, the case here is another player with good size, experience (48 games played) and productivity (246 tackles, 19 pass breakups, and 11 INTs for the Commodores). A smart kid, who earned the school’s scholar athlete award as a senior, he’s a potential late round roster addition who provides another big body in the secondary.
Top 5 UDFA prospects
1. Zach Miller, QB/WR/TE, Nebraska-Omaha - I’ll just link you to CK’s blog for this guy.
2. Cyrus Mulitalo, LB, Sacramento State - sizeable thumper.
3. Willie Williams, LB, Union College (formerly of the U) - red flags, but vast potential.
4. Michael Jones, WR, Arizona State
5. Brandon Ore, RB, West Liberty State (formerly of Virginia Tech)
Well Dolfans, there you have it. My mock for Miami, and my top 5 UDFA prospects. Stay tuned for my entire first-round mock draft, and I’ll probably also add a full 3-round mock as draft day approaches.
