Commentary: Dr. Astro Zoom’s offseason checkup (PART TWO)

[BlueFin]

All the mistakes you mention were mistakes of execution of GM duties and not necessarily deficient talent evaluation. That's my story, and I'm sticking to it. :)

Doc, trading away a fourth rounder to move up for Carey was a GM mistake, but evaluating Carey as worthy of that pick was a talent evaluation problem.

I see the Gordon move in the same light, he evaluated Gordon as worthy of giving up a high third rounder for.

 

[DrAstroZoom]

Doc, trading away a fourth rounder to move up for Carey was a GM mistake, but evaluating Carey as worthy of that pick was a talent evaluation problem.

I see the Gordon move in the same light, he evaluated Gordon as worthy of giving up a high third rounder for.

I would argue that point in that Spielman overestimated the team's need in both situations, and that tainted his evaluation of both players' value. There is a subtle difference evaluating talent and evaluating value. You may say I'm playing semantics, and if so, so be it.

 

[BlueFin]

I would argue that point in that Spielman overestimated the team's need in both situations, and that tainted his evaluation of both players' value. There is a subtle difference evaluating talent and evaluating value. You may say I'm playing semantics, and if so, so be it.

Let me put it another way, If you are the head coach of the Miami Dolphins Doc, wouldn't you expect your top personnel man to be able to advise you properly that this guy has high first round talent, or second round talent, or 5th round talent?

Based on what we know about Spielman, is he really any good at that?

 

[DPlus47]

I would argue that point in that Spielman overestimated the team's need in both situations, and that tainted his evaluation of both players' value. There is a subtle difference evaluating talent and evaluating value. You may say I'm playing semantics, and if so, so be it.

you're on a roll, doc. i really dug the article and the use of language. it's good to see such precision!

and i liked the catch with the "crowder" name.

 

[DrAstroZoom]

Let me put it another way, If you are the head coach of the Miami Dolphins Doc, wouldn't you expect your top personnel man to be able to advise you properly that this guy has high first round talent, or second round talent, or 5th round talent?

Based on what we know about Spielman, is he really any good at that?

Yes, and that's why I think Spielman is not suited to be a top personnel man -- at least not now. I think he's fine at advising on talent level with all things being equal. But when it comes to figuring in need, I think he tends to panic, and thus overpays. Spielman's moves for Feeley, Carey and Gordon were all based on a heightened sense of immediate need. While all three may still prove to be worthy of Spielman's high marks for talent, he overpaid for them.

I think we're more in agreement here than you realize. I'm with you that Spielman has a very checkered record (ha) on actual decision making, but I don't impugn his basic talent evaluation.

 

[TeeMoney]

Spielman estimated the need correctly, he got desperate. That was the problem, his desperation. Every trade Spielman did last year was a need position, done in desperation .