Commentary: Week 5 Gambling Corner

[Muck]

Tampa really is overrated. They still haven't played anyone. And they were very lucky to survive the Lions at RayJay.

As weird as it sounds, I wouldn't cry if the Jets won. Nor would I be suprised.

 

[FIN-IN-RI]

i wouldn't go near GB... everyone else looks spot on but what do i know..

 

[pigskinguy]

Wow. I really hope you bomb with your picks on Saturday, :goof: cuz i have the total opposite.
I love Northwestern. They won't win but they will cover the big number at home.
Nebraska is waaaaaay overrated. They will get exposed the Red Raiders. Texas Tech wins big.
OSU vs. PSU is pretty much a coin flip. But I will take points at home. This more a gut feeling pick as much as anything else. (I know, I know gut feelings usually end up just being gut rot but I can't help myself.)
I don't know, but to me this game has OT written all over it.

 

[MikeO]

Wow. I really hope you bomb with your picks on Saturday, :goof: cuz i have the total opposite.
I love Northwestern. They won't win but they will cover the big number at home.
Nebraska is waaaaaay overrated. They will get exposed the Red Raiders. Texas Tech wins big.
OSU vs. PSU is pretty much a coin flip. But I will take points at home. This more a gut feeling pick as much as anything else. (I know, I know gut feelings usually end up just being gut rot but I can't help myself.)
I don't know, but to me this game has OT written all over it.

Well you got your wish. lol

1-3 on Sat
3-1 on Sunday

I liked Nebraska at home because its usually once every 20 years you can take Nebraska at home getting points. So I jumped on it, too bad that was the ONLY college pick I had right.

 

[pigskinguy]

Well you got your wish. lol

1-3 on Sat
3-1 on Sunday

I liked Nebraska at home because its usually once every 20 years you can take Nebraska at home getting points. So I jumped on it, too bad that was the ONLY college pick I had right.

I know. I kept looking at the fact Nebraska was giving points at home and it was calling to me as well. I just really didn't think this team could hang all day with Texas Tech. I was wrong. Oh well, good day otherwise.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Well, finally a very good weekend. I should have figured out a decade earlier to focus on first half betting. I hope my warnings on that road-non division after Monday Night system were absorbed. It is a superior system if you bet on the first half only. Very often the road team wakes up after halftime. That was the case with Carolina at Arizona today.

 

[Ross]

Well, finally a very good weekend. I should have figured out a decade earlier to focus on first half betting. I hope my warnings on that road-non division after Monday Night system were absorbed. It is a superior system if you bet on the first half only. Very often the road team wakes up after halftime. That was the case with Carolina at Arizona today.

Damn i didn't get that warning. care to repeat it or give me a link to the orginal?

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Damn i didn't get that warning. care to repeat it or give me a link to the orginal?

I posted a thread in the general NFL forum a couple of weeks ago, mentioning the trend and specifically the first half dominance. Ross, I'll see if i can find it.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

I found it: http://www.finheaven.com/boardvb2/showthread.php?t=99384

"Anyone who has access to first half lines should look at this system carefully. It generally works much better in the first half than the game itself. The halftime margins can be astounding, and that has been the case for years. The teams in this negative scheduling situation come out amazingly flat. Look at this year: Seattle led 21-0 over Atlanta at half, Minnesota was ahead of New Orleans 24-0 at half, and San Francisco led Dallas big, 24-12. The 49ers lost in the final minute of the game after leading throughout. I had a brutal beat in the first half tonight. The Chargers led New York 21-3 in the middle of the 2nd quarter before a calamity of errors. New York kicked a last second FG to cut the margin to 21-20 at half, blowing my -3 in the first half. In this case that just ticked me off and I bet more on San Diego in the 2nd half."

 

[Ross]

I found it: http://www.finheaven.com/boardvb2/showthread.php?t=99384

"Anyone who has access to first half lines should look at this system carefully. It generally works much better in the first half than the game itself. The halftime margins can be astounding, and that has been the case for years. The teams in this negative scheduling situation come out amazingly flat. Look at this year: Seattle led 21-0 over Atlanta at half, Minnesota was ahead of New Orleans 24-0 at half, and San Francisco led Dallas big, 24-12. The 49ers lost in the final minute of the game after leading throughout. I had a brutal beat in the first half tonight. The Chargers led New York 21-3 in the middle of the 2nd quarter before a calamity of errors. New York kicked a last second FG to cut the margin to 21-20 at half, blowing my -3 in the first half. In this case that just ticked me off and I bet more on San Diego in the 2nd half."

Thanks Awsi Dooger. This year has been brutal. I need any edge i can get.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Thanks Awsi Dooger. This year has been brutal. I need any edge i can get.

No problem, Ross. Also no plays on that system next week, since Pittsburgh is at home and San Diego is on the road but it's within the division at Oakland.

 

[Boik14]

I found it: http://www.finheaven.com/boardvb2/showthread.php?t=99384

"Anyone who has access to first half lines should look at this system carefully. It generally works much better in the first half than the game itself. The halftime margins can be astounding, and that has been the case for years. The teams in this negative scheduling situation come out amazingly flat. Look at this year: Seattle led 21-0 over Atlanta at half, Minnesota was ahead of New Orleans 24-0 at half, and San Francisco led Dallas big, 24-12. The 49ers lost in the final minute of the game after leading throughout. I had a brutal beat in the first half tonight. The Chargers led New York 21-3 in the middle of the 2nd quarter before a calamity of errors. New York kicked a last second FG to cut the margin to 21-20 at half, blowing my -3 in the first half. In this case that just ticked me off and I bet more on San Diego in the 2nd half."

Considering my luck the last few weeks it might be time to try something new. The old methods dont seem to be working so well the last 3 weeks. Time to find some new trends I guess.... :D

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Considering my luck the last few weeks it might be time to try something new. The old methods dont seem to be working so well the last 3 weeks. Time to find some new trends I guess.... :D

Sounds familiar. You know how I figured out first half was best for me? I charted every game I bet for a nearly a year, football and basketball. After every game I wrote down how my team fared in the first half and the game as a whole vs. the spread. In other words, covering both first half and game would be W-W. Losing both would be L-L.

I was seeing so many W-Ls it was making me ill, especially in college football and college basketball. Switching to basically first half only in college, and a combo of first half and game in pros has definitely helped.

Your handicapping reasoning always sounds solid, Boik. Don't overreact to anything short term.