For the fifth consecutive year and sixth overall, I’ve attempted to project all of the compensatory draft picks the NFL will award. During the past three years, I’ve averaged 24.7 out of 32 exactly correct (going to the correct team in the correct round) and have been off by only one round on an average of 4.0 more.
As the NFL explains, compensatory picks are awarded to teams that lose more or better compensatory free agents than they acquire. The number of picks a team can receive equals the net loss of compensatory free agents, up to a maximum of four. Compensatory free agents are determined by a secret formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. Not every free agent lost or signed is covered by the formula.
Although the formula has never been revealed, by studying the compensatory picks that have been awarded since they began in 1993, I’ve determined that the primary factor in the value of the picks awarded is the average annual value of the contract the player signed with his new team, with small adjustments for playing time and postseason honors. A simple method of determining for which qualifying free agents a team will be compensated is this -- for every player signed, cancel out a lost player of similar value. For example, if a team signs one qualifying player for $2 million per season and loses two qualifying players, one who got $1.8 million per season and one who got $4 million per season, the team will be compensated for the $4 million player.
It is possible for a team to get a compensatory pick even if it doesn’t suffer a net loss of qualifying free agents, although those type of comp picks come at the end of the seventh round, after the normal comp picks and before the non-compensatory picks that are added if fewer than 32 comp picks are awarded. There have been eight of these type of comp picks awarded, and in each case, the combined value of the free agents lost was significantly higher than the combined value of the free agents signed. In all eight cases, those teams lost the same number of qualifying free agents as they signed. No team has ever been awarded a comp pick after signing more qualifying free agents than they lost, no matter how significant the difference in combined value.
I should note that my comp pick formula is merely an attempt to project the results of the actual (secret) formula, which I’m sure is more precise and complicated than my simple simulation. I don’t pretend to know the actual formula. But I think previous results indicate that my formula is a pretty good simulation.
In order to qualify for the comp equation, a player must have been a true Unrestricted Free Agent whose contract had expired or was voided after the previous season (i.e., he cannot have been released by his old team); he must sign during the UFA signing period (which ended on July 22 last year); if he signs after June 1, he must have been tendered a June 1 qualifying offer by his old team; he must sign for at least a certain amount of money per season; and he cannot have been permanently released by his new team before a certain point in the season (which seems to be after Week 10) or, possibly, before getting a certain amount of playing time, unless he was claimed off waivers by another team.
Last year, the lowest-paid player who qualified for the NFL’s comp equation was Bobby Hamilton, who signed for $685,000 per season and started 15 games. The highest-paid player who did not qualify was Cornell Green, who signed for $710,000 per season and played only one play – and that was on special teams. To determine the approximate cutoff points for this year’s comps, I raised last year’s cutoffs by the same percentage as the increase in RFA tenders from 2004 to 2005, which was 4.5 percent. That means a player whose playing time in 2005 was equal to Bobby Hamilton’s in 2004, and who signed for about $715,000 per season, should qualify for the equation. But a player who signed for about $742,000 and almost never played (for reasons other than being on Injured Reserve) should not qualify. Determining whether players who signed for less than $800,000 per season qualify for the equation is one of the most difficult tasks when trying to project the comps. There were nine players on the bubble this year, including one whose case is the first of its kind. Kyle Vanden Bosch signed a one-year contract for only $480,000, but he started all 16 games and made the Pro Bowl. For years, I’ve wondered whether a Pro Bowl player automatically would qualify for the comp equation regardless of his salary, and now we should find out. I’m projecting that Vanden Bosch will qualify. The eight other bubble players are Anthony Thomas ($1.0 million, cut after eight weeks), Todd Peterson ($790,000, 16 GP/16 GS as kicker), Keith Burns ($790,000, played almost exclusively on special teams), Shad Meier ($770,000, played less than 30 plays all season), Stockar McDougle ($750,000, 8 Games Played/2 Games Started), Matt Lehr ($710,000, 15 GP/15 GS), Antowain Smith ($690,000, 16 GP/7 GS) and Roberto Garza (signed for $594,000 but renegotiated to $1.585 million in December, 16 GP/7 GS). I’m projecting that Vanden Bosch, Burns, Meier, McDougle, Lehr and Garza will qualify but Thomas (cut too soon) and Smith (salary too low) will not.
Other than determining which players do or do not qualify for the equation, the most difficult thing about projecting the comp picks is determining the value range for each round. Last year, regardless of playing time or postseason honors, third-round comp players got at least $5.167 million per season, fourth-round comp players got $4.167 million to $5.5 million, fifth-round comp players got $2.6 million to $3.589 million, sixth-round comp players got $1.967 million to $2.91 million, and seventh-round players got $1.75 million or less. When determining the approximate ranges for this year’s comps, I again used a 4.5-percent increase over last year’s levels and adjusted for playing time and postseason honors.
As I alluded to earlier, the NFL adds non-compensatory picks if fewer than 32 comp picks are awarded. The non-compensatory picks are given, in order, to the teams that would be drafting if there were an eighth round. If there are 28 true comps, for example, the NFL would give additional picks to the teams that would have the first four picks in the eighth round, if there were one. This year, I’m projecting that there will be only 25 true comp picks awarded, so there should be seven non-compensatory picks awarded, to Houston, New Orleans, Green Bay, San Francisco, Oakland, Tennessee and the New York Jets, in that order.
