Agua said:
Hmm.. Okay, one quesiton, what is the precise formula used to determine when a team is to receive a compensatory pick. You answer that one. I don't mean the general parameters, like you set forth above, I mean the precise formula. You're going to find that no one knows.
The precise formula has never been revealed by the league but here'sthe jist of it from what has been revealed, researched, and made available on the web:
http://groups-beta.google.com/group...s&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&safe=off&rnum=2
By studying compensatory picks awarded since they began in 1993, one can determine that the primary factor in the value of picks awarded is the average annual value of the contract the player signed with his new team, with only small adjustments for playing time and postseason honors.
A simple method for determining which qualifying free agents a team will be compensated is, for every player signed, to cancel out a lost player of similar value. For example, if a team signs one qualifying player for $2 million per season and loses two free agents, one who got $1.9 million per season
and one who got $4 million per season, the team will be compensated
for the $4 million player.
In order to qualify for the comp equation, a player must have been
a true Unrestricted Free Agent whose contract had expired after the
previous season (ie., he cannot have been released by his old team);
he must sign during the UFA signing period (which normally ends on
July 15); if he signs after June 1, he must have been tendered a June
1 qualifying offer by his old team; he must sign for at least a
certain amount of money per season; and he cannot have been released
by his new team before a certain point in the season (which seems to
be after Week 10) or, possibly, before getting a certain amount of
playing time.
In 2003, the lowest-paid player who qualified for the NFL's comp
equation was Patrick Hape, who signed for $577,000 per season and
played in 15 games, starting eight. The highest-paid player who did
not qualify was Larry Izzo, who signed for $568,700 per season and
played in 16 games, starting none. That would put the minimum value,
regardless of playing time, somewhere around $573,000. To determine an
approximate minimum for this year's comps, I raised last year's
$573,000 minimum by the percentage increase in the salary cap from
2001-2002, which was 5.48 percent. That puts the minimum at about
$604,000 for this year's comps.
Other than determining which players do or do not qualify for the
equation, the most difficult thing about projecting the comp picks is
determining the value range for each round. In 2003, both players
for which third-round comps were awarded got more than $5.8 million
per season, fourth-round comp players got $4 million to $4.6 million,
fifth-round comp players got $3 million to $3.6 million, sixth-round
comp players got $1.52 million to $2.5 million and seventh-round
players got $1.15 million or less. You'll notice that between each
round, there was a gap of at least $370,000 and as much as $1.2
million. That makes it difficult to know exactly where the line was
between the rounds. To determine the ranges for this year's comps, I
again used a 5.48-percent increase. That put the values at $6.12
million or more for third-rounders, $4.22 million to $4.85 million for
fourth-rounders, $3.16 million to $3.8 million for fifth-rounders,
$1.6 million to $2.637 million for sixth-rounders and $1.21 million or
less for seventh-rounders. I also noted that, two years ago, the
highest-paid player for which a seventh-round comp was awarded got
$1.29 million per season. Even if the maximum value for
seventh-rounders didn't increase from 2001 to 2002, a 5.48-percent
increase this season would put the seventh-round range at $1.36
million or less. Seven of the players for which comp picks should be
awarded this season have average contract values that fall in between
those ranges. For those players, I assumed that the comp would be for
the lower of the two rounds if their value was below that of last
year's lowest-paid comp player in the higher round. If their value was
equal to or greater than last year's lowest-paid comp player in the
higher round, their comp would also be in the higher round unless the
player was a non-starter. So, in essence, here are the ranges I used
for this season's comp picks -- $5.8 million or more for the
third-round, $4.22 million to $5.79 million for the fourth round, $3
million to $4.21 million for the fifth round, $1.6 million to $2.99
million for the sixth round and $1.59 million or less for the seventh
round.
The NFL now awards 32 compensatory picks each season. If the comp
equation results in fewer than 32 picks being awarded, the NFL awards
"non-compensatory" picks to reach the maximum of 32. Those picks are
awarded, in order, to the teams who would be drafting if there was an
eighth round. If there are 26 true comps, for example, the NFL would
give additional picks to the teams who would have the first six picks
in the eighth round, if there was one.
Based on the link above and the info posted from it one can conclude that the process likely goes down like this:
Free agents are given certain designations (Type A, Type B, etc) based on a statistical ranking of their performance versus the rest of the players at his position as well as salary/contract size, postseason awards, etc. If a team looses a Type A free agent, then youre looking at being rewarded with the highest available compensation.
Type B free agents who are lost are worth slightly less, a 4th rd pick.
The loss of a Type C free agent gets the losing team a supplemental pick between rounds 4 and 5.
And so on. Considering that Baseball took their Comp formula from the NFL and that is how baseball's works its probably not too much of a stretch to say that.
Thanks for playing, come again soon :o
