- Joined
- Aug 30, 2005
- Messages
- 6,923
- Reaction score
- 85
There has been much debate on Chris Chambers and his lack of production this year and football outsiders even did an article that made him out to be the worst receiver in the league because of his woeful catch percentage of just 38.3 percent. That got me wondering just what kind of a job we were doing at getting our receivers the ball. I mean that’s an awfully low catch percentage but what if we were throwing Chris an inordinately large number of uncatchable balls? So I broke down our receivers as well as some from around the league to look at just what kind of job we have been doing at getting our receivers the ball in situations where they should be expected to make the catch. I mean its not the receivers fault if the balls gets batted down at the line, thrown over his head, or out of bounds ect. right? So here are the breakdowns. (If this looks familiar to some its because I did the same kind of breakdown during the year in a thread about Chambers but now that the year is done I wanted to do it again so we could look at the whole year.)
Marty Booker- Was thrown to 90 times and caught 55 of them for 747 yards and 6 Tds
Of those 90 throws we can subtract the following because they were uncatchable
Batted Down at Scrimmage= 1
Pass Overthrown= 8
Thrown Away Intentionally= 1
Pass Underthrown= 4
Pass Thrown Wide= 4
QB-Rcvr Miscommunicate= 3
Total unmatchable= 21
Link
So Booker had a “normal†opportunity to catch 69 balls and came down with 55 of them for an adjusted catch percentage of 79.7%. Not bad. 23% of the balls thrown to Booker were uncatchable
Other notes-Booker had 4 drops and was targeted 38 times when the blitz was on.
Wes Welker- Was thrown to 100 times and caught 67 of them for 687 yards and 1 TD
Of those throws we can subtract the following because they were unnatchable.
Batted Down at Scrimmage= 1
QB-Rcvr Miscommunicate= 1
Pass Overthrown= 7
Thrown Away Intentionally= 3
Pass Underthrown= 3
Pass Thrown Wide= 5
Pass Defensed= 7
Total unmatchable=27
Link
So Wes had a “normal†opportunity to catch 73 balls and came down with 67 of them for an adjusted catch percentage of 91.7% which is pretty outstanding. 27% of the balls thrown to Wes were uncatchable.
Other notes-Wes had 7 drops on the year and was thrown to 31 times when the blitz was on.
Chris Chambers-Was thrown to 154 times and caught 59 of them for 677 yards and 4 TD’s. Of those 154 throws we can subtract the following because they were uncatchable
Batted Down at Scrimmage= 5
QB-Rcvr Miscommunicate= 3
Pass Overthrown= 23
Thrown Away Intentionally= 9
Pass Underthrown= 10
Pass Thrown Wide= 12
Pass Defensed= 19
Pass Caught-OOB= 3
Total unmatchable= 84
Link
So Chambers had a “normal†opportunity to catch 70 balls and came down with 59 of them for an adjusted catch percentage of 84%. Not bad. 54.5% of the balls thrown to Chambers were uncatchable
Other notes-Chambers had 8 drops on the year and was thrown to 62 times when the Blitz was on.
For comparison lets look at some other receivers around the league
Steve Smith-Was thrown to 139 times and caught 83 of them for 1166 yards and 8 TD’s
Of those 139 throws we can subtract the following because they were uncatchable
Batted Down at Scrimmage= 4
Pass Overthrown= 13
Thrown Away Intentionally= 3
Pass Underthrown= 4
Pass Thrown Wide= 5
Pass Defensed= 10
Pass Caught-OOB= 2
Total unmatchable= 41
Link
So Smith had a “normal†opportunity to catch 98 balls and came down with 83 of them for an adjusted catch percentage of 84.6, not bad. 29.4% of the balls thrown to Smith were uncatchable.
Other notes-Smith had 10 drops on the year and was thrown to 48 times when the blitz was on.
Terell Owens-Was thrown to 152 times and caught 85 of them for 1180 yards and 13 TD’s. Of those 152 throws we can subtract the following because they were uncatchable.
Batted Down at Scrimmage= 2
QB-Rcvr Miscommunicate= 3
Pass Overthrown=12
Thrown Away Intentionally= 1
Pass Underthrown= 4
Pass Thrown Wide= 8
Pass Defensed= 13
Total uncatchable=43
Link
So T.O. had a “normal†opportunity to catch 109 balls and came down with 85 of them for an adjusted catch percentage of 77.9%, not great but not bad. 28.2% of the balls thrown to T.O. were uncatchable.
Other notes-T.O had 17 drops on the year and was thrown to 41 times when the Blitz was on.
Marvin Harrison- Was thrown to 148 times and caught 95 of them for 1366 yards and 12 TD’s. Of those 148 throws we can subtract the following because they were uncatchable.
Batted Down at Scrimmage= 3
QB-Rcvr Miscommunicate=1
Pass Overthrown= 14
Thrown Away Intentionally= 2
Pass Underthrown= 2
Pass Thrown Wide= 6
Pass Defensed= 14
Pass Caught-OOB= 2
Total unmatchable= 44
Link
So Marvin had a “normal†opportunity to catch 104 balls and he came down with 95 of them for an adjusted catch percentage of 91.3%, impressive. 29.7% of the balls thrown to Marvin were uncatchable.
Other notes- Marvin had 7 drops and was thrown to 42 times when the blitz was on.
Chad Johnson- Was thrown to 152 times and caught 87 of them for 1369 yards and 7 TD’s. Of those 152 throws we can subtract the following because they were uncatchable.
Batted Down at Scrimmage= 4
QB-Rcvr Miscommunicate= 3
Pass Overthrown= 17
Thrown Away Intentionally= 6
Pass Underthrown= 6
Pass Thrown Wide= 8
Pass Defensed= 9
Pass Caught-OOB= 2
Total uncatchable= 55
Link
So Chad had a “normal opportunity to catch 97 balls and he came down with 87 of them for an adjusted catch percentage of 89.6%, pretty good. 36.1% of the balls thrown to Chad were uncatchable. Other notes- Chad had 5 drops and was thrown to 48 times when the blitz was on.
The thing that jumps out to me is that a full 54.6 percent of the balls we threw to Chambers this year were uncachable. That’s a mind blowing stat to me. When we actually got him the ball in a normal kind of a situation he made the catch 84 percent of the time which really isn’t bad. Its not as high as some but its certainly not that bad.
He also didn’t have an inordinate number of drops when compared to other top receivers. And before you say “But I know he had more drops than that!†remember that these aren’t my stats, they are from Stats LLC and unless they are all rabid Chambers fans then they are probably pretty accurate. Their standards for what a drop is may be different than yours but they used the same standards for everyone else so it should be a wash.
It would seem to me that the biggest problem with Chambers production was simply that we did an awful job at getting him the ball in situations where he had a "normal" opportunity to make the catch. I guess the question is why that was the case?.. Did MM just not know how to use him? Did he just not have any chemistry with our QB’s? He was thrown to a great deal when the Blitz was on so maybe that was part of it, maybe the QB was trying to get it out to him to fast which led to bad throws…. I’m sure Joeys lack of downfield accuracy hurt Chambers more than our other receivers as he seemed to get those throws more than our other guys…. I don’t pretend to have all the answers here but I found these stats kind of interesting.
Hope that all made sense. :wink:
Marty Booker- Was thrown to 90 times and caught 55 of them for 747 yards and 6 Tds
Of those 90 throws we can subtract the following because they were uncatchable
Batted Down at Scrimmage= 1
Pass Overthrown= 8
Thrown Away Intentionally= 1
Pass Underthrown= 4
Pass Thrown Wide= 4
QB-Rcvr Miscommunicate= 3
Total unmatchable= 21
Link
So Booker had a “normal†opportunity to catch 69 balls and came down with 55 of them for an adjusted catch percentage of 79.7%. Not bad. 23% of the balls thrown to Booker were uncatchable
Other notes-Booker had 4 drops and was targeted 38 times when the blitz was on.
Wes Welker- Was thrown to 100 times and caught 67 of them for 687 yards and 1 TD
Of those throws we can subtract the following because they were unnatchable.
Batted Down at Scrimmage= 1
QB-Rcvr Miscommunicate= 1
Pass Overthrown= 7
Thrown Away Intentionally= 3
Pass Underthrown= 3
Pass Thrown Wide= 5
Pass Defensed= 7
Total unmatchable=27
Link
So Wes had a “normal†opportunity to catch 73 balls and came down with 67 of them for an adjusted catch percentage of 91.7% which is pretty outstanding. 27% of the balls thrown to Wes were uncatchable.
Other notes-Wes had 7 drops on the year and was thrown to 31 times when the blitz was on.
Chris Chambers-Was thrown to 154 times and caught 59 of them for 677 yards and 4 TD’s. Of those 154 throws we can subtract the following because they were uncatchable
Batted Down at Scrimmage= 5
QB-Rcvr Miscommunicate= 3
Pass Overthrown= 23
Thrown Away Intentionally= 9
Pass Underthrown= 10
Pass Thrown Wide= 12
Pass Defensed= 19
Pass Caught-OOB= 3
Total unmatchable= 84
Link
So Chambers had a “normal†opportunity to catch 70 balls and came down with 59 of them for an adjusted catch percentage of 84%. Not bad. 54.5% of the balls thrown to Chambers were uncatchable
Other notes-Chambers had 8 drops on the year and was thrown to 62 times when the Blitz was on.
For comparison lets look at some other receivers around the league
Steve Smith-Was thrown to 139 times and caught 83 of them for 1166 yards and 8 TD’s
Of those 139 throws we can subtract the following because they were uncatchable
Batted Down at Scrimmage= 4
Pass Overthrown= 13
Thrown Away Intentionally= 3
Pass Underthrown= 4
Pass Thrown Wide= 5
Pass Defensed= 10
Pass Caught-OOB= 2
Total unmatchable= 41
Link
So Smith had a “normal†opportunity to catch 98 balls and came down with 83 of them for an adjusted catch percentage of 84.6, not bad. 29.4% of the balls thrown to Smith were uncatchable.
Other notes-Smith had 10 drops on the year and was thrown to 48 times when the blitz was on.
Terell Owens-Was thrown to 152 times and caught 85 of them for 1180 yards and 13 TD’s. Of those 152 throws we can subtract the following because they were uncatchable.
Batted Down at Scrimmage= 2
QB-Rcvr Miscommunicate= 3
Pass Overthrown=12
Thrown Away Intentionally= 1
Pass Underthrown= 4
Pass Thrown Wide= 8
Pass Defensed= 13
Total uncatchable=43
Link
So T.O. had a “normal†opportunity to catch 109 balls and came down with 85 of them for an adjusted catch percentage of 77.9%, not great but not bad. 28.2% of the balls thrown to T.O. were uncatchable.
Other notes-T.O had 17 drops on the year and was thrown to 41 times when the Blitz was on.
Marvin Harrison- Was thrown to 148 times and caught 95 of them for 1366 yards and 12 TD’s. Of those 148 throws we can subtract the following because they were uncatchable.
Batted Down at Scrimmage= 3
QB-Rcvr Miscommunicate=1
Pass Overthrown= 14
Thrown Away Intentionally= 2
Pass Underthrown= 2
Pass Thrown Wide= 6
Pass Defensed= 14
Pass Caught-OOB= 2
Total unmatchable= 44
Link
So Marvin had a “normal†opportunity to catch 104 balls and he came down with 95 of them for an adjusted catch percentage of 91.3%, impressive. 29.7% of the balls thrown to Marvin were uncatchable.
Other notes- Marvin had 7 drops and was thrown to 42 times when the blitz was on.
Chad Johnson- Was thrown to 152 times and caught 87 of them for 1369 yards and 7 TD’s. Of those 152 throws we can subtract the following because they were uncatchable.
Batted Down at Scrimmage= 4
QB-Rcvr Miscommunicate= 3
Pass Overthrown= 17
Thrown Away Intentionally= 6
Pass Underthrown= 6
Pass Thrown Wide= 8
Pass Defensed= 9
Pass Caught-OOB= 2
Total uncatchable= 55
Link
So Chad had a “normal opportunity to catch 97 balls and he came down with 87 of them for an adjusted catch percentage of 89.6%, pretty good. 36.1% of the balls thrown to Chad were uncatchable. Other notes- Chad had 5 drops and was thrown to 48 times when the blitz was on.
The thing that jumps out to me is that a full 54.6 percent of the balls we threw to Chambers this year were uncachable. That’s a mind blowing stat to me. When we actually got him the ball in a normal kind of a situation he made the catch 84 percent of the time which really isn’t bad. Its not as high as some but its certainly not that bad.
He also didn’t have an inordinate number of drops when compared to other top receivers. And before you say “But I know he had more drops than that!†remember that these aren’t my stats, they are from Stats LLC and unless they are all rabid Chambers fans then they are probably pretty accurate. Their standards for what a drop is may be different than yours but they used the same standards for everyone else so it should be a wash.
It would seem to me that the biggest problem with Chambers production was simply that we did an awful job at getting him the ball in situations where he had a "normal" opportunity to make the catch. I guess the question is why that was the case?.. Did MM just not know how to use him? Did he just not have any chemistry with our QB’s? He was thrown to a great deal when the Blitz was on so maybe that was part of it, maybe the QB was trying to get it out to him to fast which led to bad throws…. I’m sure Joeys lack of downfield accuracy hurt Chambers more than our other receivers as he seemed to get those throws more than our other guys…. I don’t pretend to have all the answers here but I found these stats kind of interesting.
Hope that all made sense. :wink:
