sorry here you go.
Dolphins coach Nick Saban faces a very interesting dilemma regarding his passing attack in 2006. With the acquisition of
Daunte Culpepper, Miami certainly upgraded the quarterback position, and the change at offensive coordinator could have a big impact on Culpepper.
Scott Linehan was the Dolphins' offensive coordinator last season, but he left
Miami to become the head coach of the
St. Louis Rams. He was replaced by Mike Mularkey, who was the Bills' head coach the past two years.
The philosophical differences between Linehan and Mularkey couldn't be more pronounced. Linehan was the Vikings offensive coordinator in 2004, and brought a vertical approach with him to Miami. The Dolphins' quarterbacks threw a combined 179 medium and deep passes in 2005, an average of 11 per game. Consider that the 2004 Colts, with
Peyton Manning under center, averaged 13.5 medium/deep passes per game.
The Bills were not vertically inclined during either of Mularkey's seasons at the helm. Buffalo quarterbacks threw 111 medium or deep passes in 2004 (seven per game) and 102 in 2005 (six per game). Those figures can be partly attributed to
Eric Moulds' regression into more of a
possession receiver, leaving
Lee Evans as the only viable deep threat. In addition,
Drew Bledsoe struggled badly in 2004, and the 2005 combination of
J.P. Losman and
Kelly Holcomb certainly wasn't going to make Bills fans forget about Jim Kelly.
How will Culpepper take to Mularkey's approach? His reputation was made by throwing a barrage of deep passes to
Randy Moss, but Culpepper has displayed a different set of skills in the past two years.
Take a look at Culpepper's 2004 passing metrics (which include two playoff games but are missing most of one of his regular-season games):
Daunte Culpepper-2004DepthAttemptsCompYardsTDINTPenYds/AttShort 415 325 2980 21 5 16 7.2 Medium 83 50 881 10 2 -5 10.6 Deep 95 31 1149 12 5 211 14.3 Total 593 406 5010 43 12 222 8.8
Now look at Culpepper's 2005 metrics: Daunte Culpepper- 2005DepthAttCompYdsTDINTPenYds/AttShort 153 110 965 1 5 25 6.5 Medium 33 21 334 1 2 10 10.4 Deep 30 8 265 4 5 4 9.0 Total 216 139 1564 6 12 39 7.4
These metrics seem to indicate that Culpepper threw the ball vertically quite often. In 2004, he averaged 10 medium and deep passes per game, despite playing without Moss for much of the time. In 2005, Culpepper averaged slightly less than 10 medium/deep passes per game in only 6½ games.
The numbers are inflated, however, given that the Vikings were often involved in shootouts or were forced to come from behind. A look at the percentage of medium and deep passes in each season helps bring this into focus:
2004 Vikings -- 13.2% medium, 15.1% deep; 28.3% total
2005 Vikings -- 15.2% medium, 13.8% deep; 29.0% total
Compare those figures to Linehan's Dolphins and Mularkey's Bills:
2004 Bills -- 12.4% medium, 11.8% deep; 24.2% total
2005 Bills -- 13.1% medium, 10.7% deep; 23.8% total
2005 Dolphins -- 18.4% medium, 18.2% deep; 36.6% total
These percentages show that Mularkey's offense in Buffalo bears greater resemblance to the offense Culpepper ran in Minnesota.
Saban must decide how vertical he wants the Dolphins to be. He seems to give his coordinators a lot of leeway. Saban allowed Linehan to run his highly vertical passing game, but my guess is that he won't force that style on Mularkey. The Dolphins likely will end up being less aggressive but more productive. Miami averaged 10.3 yards per deep pass attempt last year with
Gus Frerotte. Mularkey doesn't have Linehan's vertical bent, but he was able to get 12.3 yards per deep attempt from the combination of Losman and Holcomb. Just imagine how good Miami's deep metrics could be with Culpepper at the helm.
