Current Roster Construction

[Ray R]

Some articles in the Media and some posts here have heavily criticized GM, Chris Grier. As I have said in multiple posts that the #1 job of a GM is to put together a talented Roster which most, if not all, independent Media agrees that Grier has done that. But I wanted to take a deeper look at the Roster construction. In my opinion, there are three layers – Draft, Trades and Free Agency – in building a Roster. Grier has done well in Trades like the Tunsil trade, #3 pick T. Lance trade, Tyreek Hill trade, Jalen Ramsey trade, etc. He and his front office have done a good job in Free Agency as well – getting good players below market values, such as Jonnu S., A. Brewer, J. Brooks, Calais C., T. Armstead ($15M/yr was below market value for a top 5 OT), etc.

The third piece – Draft, Develop and Retain – is where we have underperformed in my opinion when it comes to starting level Players and that separates us from the real contenders. I went to ESPN.Com and followed their Depth Chart to come up with the following Table. I included the top teams like BUF, BAL, HOU, bottom teams like NYG, NO, JAG, and middling teams like Miami, ARZ, CIN, DEN. I didn’t include GB, KC, PIT and DET – top Teams that we know draft very well. The Depth Chart is a total of 24 Starters including FB and Nickel Back. I excluded Special Teams in the Study. On the current ESPN Depth Chart, Miami scores 9 out of 24 for Starters that Miami has drafted including L. Eichenberg and 3 UDFA (Benito J., Kahou and S. Duck) but ESPN has listed Chop Robinson, one of the top Pass Rushers in the NFL, and Patrick Paul as the backups. So even if we add them, that still makes only 11 out of 24. I do realize worse Teams than Miami like NYG have more drafted Starters on the current Roster than Miami so there may not be a direct correlation between winning and drafted Starters but having 9 or 11 seems pretty low in the age of salary cap and then the top teams predominantly built on drafted Starters gives a strong validity to the argument/correlation between the two.

So is the issue in Miami in the drafting process or developing the Players drafted (which would be on the Coaching staff) or retaining the drafted Players? Just going back the last 3 years, we have not been able to retain some good draft picks either – Wilkins, Hunt, Brandon Jones, Raekwon Davis, Holland – first two were overpaid. Relying on Free Agency to fill gaps has it’s own downfalls – chemistry issues, fit, injury prone players to get below market prices, continuity issues, etc.

We need to fix the Draft, Develop & Retain process to sustain any kind of Playoff success. Good news is that Chop R., Paul, M. Washington for a #3 or #4 WR and J. Wright flashing potential seem like a good start going forward. Coming draft is going to be huge for us in filling the DL, CB, S and G holes on our Roster.

View attachment 186202

So, we are like Arizona. - LOL

 

[JamesWsenior]

Ross probably isn't blowing it up after next season either, i'd be surprised if the end result was anything other than Champ Kelly sliding into the role of GM and Grier becoming a consultant or something similar.

Kelly as GM. Grier as Head Coach.

 

[eMCee85]

Current roster construction = bottom 5 in the league

 

[Etuoo33]

Grier in charge here 10 years? There is credibility loss right there (think TannenBum). I also have to blame Coach McFancy-Pants for the type offensive linemen that he wants to run his system. I think we drafted both AJ and Hunt in the same draft. Hunt is a big dog not like the finesse players we are using for now. The Hill, Chubb, Ramsey trades and the lost draft picks came back to haunt us the last two years since they cost us the high choices we needed to re-stock with cheap young talent. IMO, the OL philosophy is flawed. Until we decide to get the best overall instead of the 'best' for 'our system' we will struggle to get the OL we need to succeed in cold weather games.

 

[Mello Yello]

Some articles in the Media and some posts here have heavily criticized GM, Chris Grier. As I have said in multiple posts that the #1 job of a GM is to put together a talented Roster which most, if not all, independent Media agrees that Grier has done that. But I wanted to take a deeper look at the Roster construction. In my opinion, there are three layers – Draft, Trades and Free Agency – in building a Roster. Grier has done well in Trades like the Tunsil trade, #3 pick T. Lance trade, Tyreek Hill trade, Jalen Ramsey trade, etc. He and his front office have done a good job in Free Agency as well – getting good players below market values, such as Jonnu S., A. Brewer, J. Brooks, Calais C., T. Armstead ($15M/yr was below market value for a top 5 OT), etc.

The third piece – Draft, Develop and Retain – is where we have underperformed in my opinion when it comes to starting level Players and that separates us from the real contenders. I went to ESPN.Com and followed their Depth Chart to come up with the following Table. I included the top teams like BUF, BAL, HOU, bottom teams like NYG, NO, JAG, and middling teams like Miami, ARZ, CIN, DEN. I didn’t include GB, KC, PIT and DET – top Teams that we know draft very well. The Depth Chart is a total of 24 Starters including FB and Nickel Back. I excluded Special Teams in the Study. On the current ESPN Depth Chart, Miami scores 9 out of 24 for Starters that Miami has drafted including L. Eichenberg and 3 UDFA (Benito J., Kahou and S. Duck) but ESPN has listed Chop Robinson, one of the top Pass Rushers in the NFL, and Patrick Paul as the backups. So even if we add them, that still makes only 11 out of 24. I do realize worse Teams than Miami like NYG have more drafted Starters on the current Roster than Miami so there may not be a direct correlation between winning and drafted Starters but having 9 or 11 seems pretty low in the age of salary cap and then the top teams predominantly built on drafted Starters gives a strong validity to the argument/correlation between the two.

So is the issue in Miami in the drafting process or developing the Players drafted (which would be on the Coaching staff) or retaining the drafted Players? Just going back the last 3 years, we have not been able to retain some good draft picks either – Wilkins, Hunt, Brandon Jones, Raekwon Davis, Holland – first two were overpaid. Relying on Free Agency to fill gaps has it’s own downfalls – chemistry issues, fit, injury prone players to get below market prices, continuity issues, etc.

We need to fix the Draft, Develop & Retain process to sustain any kind of Playoff success. Good news is that Chop R., Paul, M. Washington for a #3 or #4 WR and J. Wright flashing potential seem like a good start going forward. Coming draft is going to be huge for us in filling the DL, CB, S and G holes on our Roster.

View attachment 186202

Good points. I think you're headed in the right direction.

Those who focus their criticism on blaming Chris Grier for a lack of vision & execution really miss the big picture. Fact is, he's actually quite good at a lot of what he's attempting to do.

I think it's very clear the Dolphins have a problem, but it's far larger than 1 person...

...the problem is conflicting visions.



Firstly, Ross has an agenda which is mainly focused on finding the next Shula and/or Marino. He sees HC and QB as a means to stability. He's chased several coaches and ultimately burned through several hires of his own. Meanwhile, he's done everything he can to invest in the QBs he's had, probably more than they deserve TBH.

So that's where it starts. But there are the other factors as well.

The HCs that have been hired were all first-time guys entering what may be their one and only shot at being an NFL HC. As such, they've tried their best to focus on whatever priorities they see as being best. Gase and McDaniel both clearly prioritized the relationships they had with their QBs. Flores on the other hand, prioritized a culture of discipline and accountability.

I think it's fair to say that in the midst of all that, Grier has genuinely tried to make things work. He's been active in FA. He's been bold on several occasions. He's made sure not to miss on high-value draft selections: Minkah, Wilkins, Tua, Waddle, etc. He's worked with his HCs to deliver the kinds of players those HCs wanted.

While drafting and trading tend to bring in the kind of player types the schemes demand, the spending has generally reflected the HCs input, too. The Flores teams spent mostly on defense: Kyle Van Noy, Xavien Howard, Byron Jones, etc. The McDaniel teams have spent quite a bit on offense: Hill, Armstead, Waddle, Tua, etc.

Point is, Grier has been adaptive. And we continue to hear that during each cycle of HC hiring, that the Leadership within the team wants someone who will work towards a shared vision.

Grier's not instituting his own vision. He's trying to perform as well as he can while working between an Owner and a string of HCs who all have their own priorities while somehow trying to make sure his own moves make sense in some larger schema where he's following a list of 'best practices' for NFL GMs avoiding huge payouts and maintaining a good relationship with other teams.


We must therefore understand the Dolphins as a tangled web of conflicting visions.

And as I continually remind people, if the Owner hasn't yet found a way during the last 15 years to put all the power in the hands of a single man, he's unlikely to do that in the future. The safe bet is that things continue in this tangled way.


The best thing the Dolphins might've done IMHO was to have avoided the whole "tank" thing and just kept Laremy Tunsil who was about the only good thing our OL had really seen since Jake Long in '08. We could've moved on from Gase after the '18 season and used '19 to not only add Flores, Minkah and Wilkins (as well as Fitzmagic at QB) to see us through but we would've been in position in '20 to draft a QB no matter where we were.



We were 7-9 in Gase's last year and we know Flores had a positive impact in '19. Let's imagine had we not tanked that we might've been somewhere around .500 in Flores' first year with Minkah, Van Noy, Wilkins, Tunsil and Fitzmagic all contributing at reasonable levels.

So, perhaps we would've entered the '20 draft looking for a QB with something like the #15 overall pick.

Either Tua would've fallen because of his injury and we would've gotten him all the same. Or perhaps we might've traded up slightly and made a play for either he or Herbert. That would've worked fine. Or we would've had no problem grabbing Jordan Love at #15 who didn't go until #25 that year anyway. Or we even could've ended up with Jalen Hurts who's had a marvelous career. All of those QBs would've still been available to us in some way, shape or form.

I can't stress enough either how much the job of Leadership is to make sure people are on the same page. Minkah demanded a trade but the job of Leadership is to make sure that whatever schematic separation there might've been between HC Brian Flores and DB Minkah Fitzpatrick doesn't get resolved by sending a Pro Bowl player away.

Sending Minkah to Pittsburgh was NOT the solution and it's moves like that which show the lack of leadership in Miami.

More to the point, Tua shouldn't have been the pick if Flores wasn't on board. And Flores shouldn't have been the HC hired if he wasn't on board with the Front Office's strategy of tanking.

There was conflict all over the place.



Ultimately, tanking was stupid and we never should've done it. I said at the time it felt dumb and I stand by that. Teams that do silly things leaning into reactionary, impulsive strategies usually pay the price just as we have.

If you simply put one foot in front of the other and make solid decisions that are actually in everyone's best interest (instead of having everyone fighting for their own conflicting interest) you end up alright.

Instead, we tanked because we didn't trust a QB would be there which they ultimately always are for good, solid teams who don't need a Top-5 pick to secure a functional QB.

The tank pushed players away and Ross' tampering led to Flores leaving. And instead of giving him the QB he wanted, we forced someone on him he didn't like and who has ultimately proven problematic for another set of reasons.

There's an alternative universe where the Dolphins, still led by HC Brian Flores, were a tough-but-smart, defensive team with players like Zach Seiler, Christian Wilkins and Minkah Fitzpatrick complimenting a functional offense with Laremy Tunsil and Jordan Love.

You don't have to believe the whimsical scenario above is something we should've ended up with. Flores was a jerk and perhaps things would've fallen apart all the same. Perhaps Jordan Love would've failed here rather than becoming the guy he was in GB?

You only need to acknowledge that the alternative path was there and that we found a way to make it MUCH more complicated.

If you see that your past decisions were motivated by bad things, like the fear of missing out on a QB (which is stupid) or the thought that it was okay to trade functional players like Laremy Tunsil and Minkah Fitzpatrick instead of finding ways to make those players work for the betterment of your team...if you see those mistakes you can be honest about why you failed and make better decisions in the future.

 

[Springveldt]

Current roster construction = bottom 5 in the league

No it's not, it's not even close to that.

Bottom 5 teams don't the quantity of good players the Dolphins have like Hill, Achane, Waddle, Tua, Smith, Chubb, Phillips, Sieler and Ramsey.

This team has talent, it's just that the drop off from that talent to the backups (as the main talents always get injured) is massive and there is always one glaring hole in the roster that derails the team that the GM isn't worried about.

 

[gofins60]

Playoff games are not won by talent alone - coaching comes into play, injuries do as well. Case in point, the 49ers were considered the most talented team last year coming into the season. How many games did they win? 6 games. I had given links to Independent National rankings in other posts that regard Dolphins as a top 10 most talented team heading into last year - that's not based on my opinion.

Okay, if injuries negatively affect a team, then that makes Grier look even more incompetent because he likes signing injury-prone players. And, if rankings show that the Fins have a lot of talent, what good does that do when most of the talent is either injured defensive players, or offensive weapons that they couldn't use to their full potential because of Grier's crappy o-line.

I agree that coaching is to also to blame, but who hired the most inexperienced HC in the entire League? Was it Ross or Grier? Even if it was Ross, Grier is still to blame for not making sure that the offense has a strong o-line, because that's a must-have, whether Coach McFancypants wants one or not.

Basically, Grier has not built a contender, because even though he found some good talent, he failed to make sure that the team has a strong foundation. McDaniel seemed fine in the beginning, but once defenses figured him out, his lack of experience at everything is blatantly obvious. And, Ross is either completely clueless, or he's in it for the money and doesn't care about having a contender.

 

[gofins60]

Those who focus their criticism on blaming Chris Grier for a lack of vision & execution really miss the big picture. Fact is, he's actually quite good at a lot of what he's attempting to do.

I think it's very clear the Dolphins have a problem, but it's far larger than 1 person...

...the problem is conflicting visions.

We must therefore understand the Dolphins as a tangled web of conflicting visions.

You made a lot of good points in your post. Yes, because of Ross's cluelessness and never cleaning house completely, there is probably conflicting visions. That said, that shouldn't stop Grier from doing what a good GM is supposed to do, and that's build a contender. Top teams normally have a good defense that can also pressure a QB with their front four, and a good o-line and running game on offense as a solid foundation. After that, it's coaching and the QB position that makes one contender more "elite" than another.

IOW, if it's McDaniel that doesn't care about having a strong, competent o-line, that shouldn't matter to Grier, because a contender needs a good o-line, so building one is a necessity, not a luxury. However, Miami doesn't have a good, competent o-line, and whether it's because Grier isn't good enough to build one or McDoofus doesn't want one doesn't matter, either way Grier is to blame because it's his responsibility to make sure that they have one.

 

[eMCee85]

No it's not, it's not even close to that.

Bottom 5 teams don't the quantity of good players the Dolphins have like Hill, Achane, Waddle, Tua, Smith, Chubb, Phillips, Sieler and Ramsey.

This team has talent, it's just that the drop off from that talent to the backups (as the main talents always get injured) is massive and there is always one glaring hole in the roster that derails the team that the GM isn't worried about.

We will see

 

[RichmondWeb]

Here you go boys! Don't forget to vote @RichmondWeb !

 

[eMCee85]

Okay, if injuries negatively affect a team, then that makes Grier look even more incompetent because he likes signing injury-prone players. And, if rankings show that the Fins have a lot of talent, what good does that do when most of the talent is either injured defensive players, or offensive weapons that they couldn't use to their full potential because of Grier's crappy o-line.

I agree that coaching is to also to blame, but who hired the most inexperienced HC in the entire League? Was it Ross or Grier? Even if it was Ross, Grier is still to blame for not making sure that the offense has a strong o-line, because that's a must-have, whether Coach McFancypants wants one or not.

Basically, Grier has not built a contender, because even though he found some good talent, he failed to make sure that the team has a strong foundation. McDaniel seemed fine in the beginning, but once defenses figured him out, his lack of experience at everything is blatantly obvious. And, Ross is either completely clueless, or he's in it for the money and doesn't care about having a contender.

Lmao at Coach McFancypants!!! Hahahaha

 

[gofins60]

Lmao at Coach McFancypants!!! Hahahaha

 

[Mello Yello]

You made a lot of good points in your post. Yes, because of Ross's cluelessness and never cleaning house completely, there is probably conflicting visions. That said, that shouldn't stop Grier from doing what a good GM is supposed to do, and that's build a contender. Top teams normally have a good defense that can also pressure a QB with their front four, and a good o-line and running game on offense as a solid foundation. After that, it's coaching and the QB position that makes one contender more "elite" than another.

IOW, if it's McDaniel that doesn't care about having a strong, competent o-line, that shouldn't matter to Grier, because a contender needs a good o-line, so building one is a necessity, not a luxury. However, Miami doesn't have a good, competent o-line, and whether it's because Grier isn't good enough to build one or McDoofus doesn't want one doesn't matter, either way Grier is to blame because it's his responsibility to make sure that they have one.

But Grier has made investments...and many of them were good!

That's the thing.

In '20, Grier spent a R1 pick on Austin Jackson who's been the best OT we could've gotten at #18 following Tua at #5.
He then acquired Rob Hunt in R2 who turned into a $100M IOL player...that's a huge credit to Grier as head of the draft.
He then invested another R2 pick in Liam Eichenberg in '21 who hasn't worked despite Liam being a very popular prospect.

So far, so good.

The real problems were these:
(1) Giving away Laremy Tunsil believing you needed a ton of picks to find a reasonable QB talent.
(2) Starting your rebuild with a QB before the roster was competitive / fleshed out.
(3) Picking a QB that your HC didn't want.

The subsequent challenges on the OL all stem from much deeper issues that have more to do with communication and the lack of a shared vision where everyone's on the same page.

I think the tank was largely Stephen Ross and I don't think there was any way that the Dolphins were going to use that #5 overall pick on anything other than a QB given Ross' attitude towards the importance of the position. You just can't say that a person as rationale as Grier would be out there making crazy moves like that nor can you overlook the fact that we know Stephen Ross was out there tampering at the time which all eventually came out leading to punishments and lawsuits.

You can blame Grier all you want for the overall problem here, but IMHO it's the Owner who determined these foundational decisions.



In '22 under the new regime, Grier then acquired Terron Armstead who appeared the best possible OT option.
He simultaneously acquired Connor Williams at IOL who played at a very high level prior to his catastrophic injuries.

In '24, Grier then signed Aaron Brewer at IOL who by most account played well above his salary last year as a great scheme fit.
And while Armstead is contemplating retirement, we now have what should be a great option in Patrick Paul ready to start.


Since the rebuild started in '20, the Dolphins have spent 4 of their 12 highest picks on OL!!!

Of those 4 picks, one guy signed a $36M extension and another signed a $100M extension.

Assuming Paul turns into an adequate starter, that'll be a 75% hit rate as well with the only "bust" being Eichenberg who can at least claim to have started a ton of games as a below-average back-up level player.

Point is, that's a ridiculous investment at OL.

And that's before you get to Armstead, Lamm, Williams, and Brewer who all played (or are playing) critical roles as FA acquisitions!

To sit here and say the Dolphins haven't actively tried (successfully) to address their issues is false.



Had we not tanked and instead kept Laremy Tunsil we could've started there and Jackson would've been your bookend. Had we not rushed for a QB we could've possibly cashed in on someone better than Jackson at OT in the '20 draft wherein elite OT prospects went at #10, #11 and #13.

Had we not sent Tunsil packing and been forced to draft Eichenberg we could've avoided that bust and instead drafted someone else of better value? Had we not felt forced to sign Armstead to fill a gap at OT, we could've spent that money on fixing the IOL?

And if Williams hadn't suffered catastrophic, career-ending injuries we could've used the money we spent on Brewer to add a RG and/or LG.

Despite all the bad decisions and bad luck we're still looking at an OL in '25 that (in theory) should have solid starters at LT, OC and RT leaving only the two Guard positions as real needs...and we've already filled one of those spots with what appears is a serviceable addition and we have the Draft yet to go.


It's not for a lack of trying, dude. It's the effect of tanking, having to draft for a million needs and sending away functional players paired with devastating injuries. You mix in a little bit of poor coaching / development on the field and you get what we have.

 

[Rick Cartman]

It's this worry that leads me to think sometimes that this team could be 5 to 10 years away from being a real contender.

I'll always love the Dolphins but i have such little faith in Ross hiring the right people it's very depressing.

I'm hoping Ross let's his daughter take over football decisions when hiring the next GM. I'd welcome anyone take a stab at hiring the next GM over Ross.

The beauty of the NFL in the free agency era is it doesn't take that long to turn a team around
We're just one proficient personnel department hire away from turning it around, the problem is Ross doesn't seem to hold GMs to the fire like he does coaches.

 

[Rick Cartman]

But Grier has made investments...and many of them were good!

That's the thing.

In '20, Grier spent a R1 pick on Austin Jackson who's been the best OT we could've gotten at #18 following Tua at #5.
He then acquired Rob Hunt in R2 who turned into a $100M IOL player...that's a huge credit to Grier as head of the draft.
He then invested another R2 pick in Liam Eichenberg in '21 who hasn't worked despite Liam being a very popular prospect.

So far, so good.

The real problem was giving away Laremy Tunsil and using the #5 pick on a QB before the OL was fleshed out.

In '22 under the new regime, Grier then acquired Terron Armstead who appeared the best possible OT option.
He simultaneously acquired Connor Williams at IOL who played at a very high level prior to his catastrophic injuries.

In '24, Grier then signed Aaron Brewer at IOL who by most account played well above his salary last year as a great scheme fit.
And while Armstead is contemplating retirement, we now have what should be a great option in Patrick Paul ready to start.


Since the rebuild started in '20, the Dolphins have spent 4 of their 12 highest picks on OL!!!

Of those 4 picks, one guy signed a $36M extension and another signed a $100M extension.

Assuming Paul turns into an adequate starter, that'll be a 75% hit rate as well with the only "bust" being Eichenberg who can at least claim to have started a ton of games as a below-average back-up level player.

Point is, that's a ridiculous investment at OL.

And that's before you get to Armstead, Lamm, Williams, and Brewer who all played (or are playing) critical roles as FA acquisitions!

To sit here and say the Dolphins haven't actively tried (successfully) to address their issues is false.



Had we not tanked and instead kept Laremy Tunsil we could've started there and Jackson would've been your bookend. Had we not rushed for a QB we could've possibly cashed in on someone better than Jackson at OT in the '20 draft wherein elite OT prospects went at #10, #11 and #13.

Had we not sent Tunsil packing and been forced to draft Eichenberg we could've avoided that bust and instead drafted someone else of better value? Had we not felt forced to sign Armstead to fill a gap at OT, we could've spent that money on fixing the IOL?

And if Williams hadn't suffered catastrophic, career-ending injuries we could've used the money we spent on Brewer to add a RG and/or LG.

Despite all the bad decisions and bad luck we're still looking at an OL in '25 that (in theory) should have solid starters at LT, OC and RT leaving only the two Guard positions as real needs...and we've already filled one of those spots with what appears is a serviceable addition and we have the Draft yet to go.


It's not for a lack of trying, dude. It's the effect of tanking, having to draft for a million needs and sending away functional players paired with devastating injuries. You mix in a little bit of poor coaching / development on the field and you get what we have.

I personally like Austin Jackson, but i would not categorize one healthy, effective season in 5 seasons as a hit yet.