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Davone Bess is a Playmaker

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Shouright

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According to this website, Davone Bess was 18th in the league in 2012 in Win Probability Added (11th in the league in Win Probability Added per game), which is defined as follows:

Win Probability Added starts with a Win Probability (WP) model of the game of football. Every situation in a game gives each opponent a particular chance of winning, and a WP model estimates those chances. The model created here at Advanced NFL Stats uses score, time, down, distance, and field position to estimate how likely each team will go on to win the game. For example, at the start of the 2nd quarter, a team down by 7 points with a 2nd down and 5 from their own 25 will win about 36% of the time--in other words a 0.36 WP.

On that 2nd down and 5, let’s say there is a 30-yard pass, setting up a 1st down and 10 on the opponent’s 45. Now that team has gone from a 0.36 to a 0.39 WP. The WPA for that play would be +0.03.

If instead the quarterback throws an interception returned back to the line of scrimmage, the opponent now has the ball at the 25, giving the trailing team a 0.28 WP. The WPA for the interception would be -0.08.

WPA is very sensitive to the context of the game. That same interception that cost -0.08 when a team was down by 7 points in the 2nd quarter would cost much more if it the offense was leading by a point late in the 4th quarter. Putting your opponent in immediate field goal range would be nearly fatal.

Stats are tools, and each tool has its own purpose. WPA is what I call a narrative stat. Its purpose is not to be predictive of future play or to measure the true ability of a player or team. It simply measures the impact of each play toward winning and losing.

WPA has a number of applications. For starters, we can tell which plays were truly critical in each game. From a fan’s perspective, we can call a play the ‘play of the week’ or the ‘play of the year.’ And although we still can't separate an individual player's performance from that of his teammates', we add up the total WPA for plays in which individual players took part. This can help us see who really made the difference when it matters most. It can help tell us who is, or at least appears to be, “clutch.” It can also help inform us who really deserves the player of the week award, the selection to the Pro Bowl, or even induction into the Hall of Fame.
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Not all "plays" are touchdowns, and not all "plays" involve tremendous YAC. Sometimes a play is a clutch third-down catch that sustains a key drive in a game and keeps your team in the running for a win that day. Many times a "play" is related more to the mentality a guy plays with (i.e., stepping up in the clutch, wanting the ball, and giving 110% effort to get it) and the little things he does (i.e., route-running, ball skills, etc.) than to his combine measurables and his explosive ability as measured by his 40 time and vertical jump.

Davone Bess is a playmaker, folks. You've seen it yourself time and time again, and I think many of you are taking it for granted.

[video=youtube;6lxgjPED1Us]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lxgjPED1Us[/video]

You don't trade players like these for fourth-round picks.
 
No he isnt. I love Bess but he isnt a playmaker.
 
Agree Shouright. Im excited about the prospect of Austin like many others (which may cloud my perception of Bess) but that does not take away from the fact the Davone is a very effective weapon in our passing game. Thanks for sharing.
 
I won't ever understand why this dude gets so unappreciated around here. Sometimes I come on here just to feel better about my life, you guys are all so scorned and negative. Bess moves the chains well and doesn't drop anything. When you have depth, sure-handed route-runners are great.
 
Bess gets injured at the most critical time of the year. Now were we playoff team? no, but thats not where Philbin plans to be this year. He wants guys who can make it through a season. Which if the trade rumour is indeed about Bess, its time to move on. The time is right if you can get something for him.
 
WVDolphan said:
He's a bum.
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That's probably a little harsh WV, but if you can get a fifth round pick for him, with as deep as this draft is at WR, you take it and run. And you shed a little salary in the process. IMHO depending how the draft goes, he could be a cap casualty in the fall anyway.
 
zmill said:
I won't ever understand why this dude gets so unappreciated around here. Sometimes I come on here just to feel better about my life, you guys are all so scorned and negative. Bess moves the chains well and doesn't drop anything. When you have depth, sure-handed route-runners are great.
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I saw him drop several key throws last year.

What I didnt see was Bess putting it in the endzone.
 
He did have a couple of critical drops last season. Everyone conveniently forgets those, I guess.

If you're going to make your living off of having sure hands and nothing else, you'd better have sure hands.
 
Bess did drop quite few last year. More than normal...

But, he was also covered like a blanket most of the time because we had no one but Hartline as the other WR. I'm sure that duo sent fear into every CB's heart last year...
 
I agree, if we trade Bess, especially to a team like the Colts, we will regret it like we regretted trading Wes Welker. Bess is highly under-appreciated and he and Hartline played well last year even though the BOTH played out of position last year. Now having Mike Wallace, we should expect Bess to be even better next year, (same for Hartline by the way) because he can simply focus on playing slot, which he's amazing at. As a slot receiver, Bess may well be the best player at his position that we have on the team. The only challenge to this would be Pouncey and now maybe Wallace. I'm saying "as a slot receiver" which as I said he was asked to play out of position last year. If he goes to a team that already has ones and twos (wide receivers) he will suddenly look alot better because he can focus on his role - slot - and all the people who dont appreciate him now will suddenly be lamenting why did we let him go and wondering why Bess is now suddenly so good. His workout routine is legendary, his practise habits are legendary, he's a true pro, he's made so many important catches for us, like first down conversions etc and catches that were crucial. If the ball is anywhere near him he catches it. He very very rarely ever makes a drop. Our loss if we let him go.
shouright said:
According to this website, Davone Bess was 18th in the league in 2012 in Win Probability Added (11th in the league in Win Probability Added per game), which is defined as follows:



Not all "plays" are touchdowns, and not all "plays" involve tremendous YAC. Sometimes a play is a clutch third-down catch that sustains a key drive in a game and keeps your team in the running for a win that day. Many times a "play" is related more to the mentality a guy plays with (i.e., stepping up in the clutch, wanting the ball, and giving 110% effort to get it) and the little things he does (i.e., route-running, ball skills, etc.) than to his combine measurables and his explosive ability as measured by his 40 time and vertical jump.

Davone Bess is a playmaker, folks. You've seen it yourself time and time again, and I think many of you are taking it for granted.

[video=youtube;6lxgjPED1Us]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lxgjPED1Us[/video]

You don't trade players like these for fourth-round picks.
Click to expand...
 
Surferosa said:
Agree Shouright. Im excited about the prospect of Austin like many others (which may cloud my perception of Bess) but that does not take away from the fact the Davone is a very effective weapon in our passing game. Thanks for sharing.
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What I bolded is what I think is happening here by and large, but I can give you a rundown of players with Austin's measurables who've done nothing significant in the league, whereas Bess has done plenty and is a game-winner. The odds are against Austin's ever attaining the level of success Bess has in the league.
 
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