Deconstructing Pennington’s postseason woes | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Deconstructing Pennington’s postseason woes

Pennington is what he is. He's a guy with a weak arm who is no threat throwing it downfield against any defense. He is usually smart with the ball and can efficiently operate a short passing game. The Ravens exposed our shortcomings on offense as we have a below average o-line (therefore a below average rushing attack), no vertical passing game and no big playmakers at receiver
 
pennington is what he is
& will not be replaced as long as he plays @ this level & remains uninjured

gives the #2's time to learn the game & compete amongst themselves
 
DefensiveEnd76 said:
Pennington is what he is. He's a guy with a weak arm who is no threat throwing it downfield against any defense. He is usually smart with the ball and can efficiently operate a short passing game. The Ravens exposed our shortcomings on offense as we have a below average o-line (therefore a below average rushing attack), no vertical passing game and no big playmakers at receiver
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Does not throw the ball downfield? Do you actually watch the games? This board is really starting to sound like JI, I swear it is.
 
You call a 15 yard pass throwing it downfield? Pennington can't throw the 45-50 yard pass. THAT is throwing it downfield. If Pennington attempts to throw it long, the ball floats like Fiedler's passes use to
 
DefensiveEnd76 said:
You call a 15 yard pass throwing it downfield? Pennington can't throw the 45-50 yard pass. THAT is throwing it downfield. If Pennington attempts to throw it long, the ball floats like Fiedler's passes use to
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I'll ask you again, do you actually watch the games? Chad completed several long downfield passes when he had protection and the recievers were able to get separation. Give me a break and quit bashing the best QB this franchise has seen in quite some time.
 
Nice eye opening article as usual Hugo. Nice and impartial, just presenting statistics, and not the biases that are seen in many Penny articles.

Your article definitely got be thinking about other QB playoff/regular season statistics, because I assume all QB's stats go down due to better competeition/weather problems. I could not find them in the few minutes I was looking, but will probably get back to it. However, I did find this article.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=250

Some of his math I find a little flawed/fudged, but I am very intrigued near the bottom of the article:
"But by far the most significant result comes when looking at win/loss splits. Sure, we should expect winning QBs to have high QB ratings and losing QBs to have low QB ratings, but the split is enormous. Based on the specific QBs that won a playoff game, we’d expect an 86.6 QBR and 6.58 AY/A. They actually had a 92.9 QBR and averaged 7.17 AY/A.
Losing QBs would be expected to have, based on their regular season numbers, an 82.8 QBR and averaged 6.21 AY/A. In reality? A 58.4 QBR and an ugly 4.01 AY/A.
It’s unclear which is the chicken (losing) and which is the egg (low QB Rating) but there’s certainly a very high correlation. "

I am not using this as an excuse for Chad, because both he and the Miami Dolphins team were outmatched/outplayed by the Raven's D. It is definitely a chicken or egg situation. Its easy to see being on the losing end leads to a low QB rating for all QB's, but overall it is very hard to say if that is the QB's fault or it is a combination of the team underperforming.
Not entirely sure where I was going with this post except to point out that interesting stat. Again I think the rest of the article is discredited due to this stat being pulled out. Your article however, sparked an interest in me.
 
hugoguzman said:
http://www.realfootball365.com/articles/dolphins/13518

With numbers like these, it’s no surprise that Pennington is just 2-4 in the postseason and has never advanced beyond the divisional round of the playoffs.

Please give it a read and let me know where you stand on this topic. Thanks!
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Bottom line is this: playoff teams are better than non-playoff teams. I would venture to bet that unless your name is Brady or Montana, your numbers are going to be worse in the postseason that in the regular season. Look at Peyton Manning. Except for his Superbowl season, his postseason performances have been far worse than his regular season work.
 
Fin #10 said:
I'll ask you again, do you actually watch the games? Chad completed several long downfield passes when he had protection and the recievers were able to get separation. Give me a break and quit bashing the best QB this franchise has seen in quite some time.
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I have watched ALL 16 games and the playoff game. Chad Pennington has not thrown a 45-50 yard pass. If you think he has then you need to get your eyes checked. The Ravens loved playing against Pennington because their DBs know how weak his arm is and they feasted on him. Ed Reed was licking his chops.
 
here's my opinion on Pennington,and you guys can take it for whatever you think it's worth...he's who we need until all the pieces get put in place for Henne to come in and be successful...does he have the arm to consistently pass the ball down field? no...and we all know that...what he is is an efficient QB who doesn't make mistakes all that often...he's a leader who wants to help our team be the best they can be...he's a good mentor for our back ups and will continue to help teach and mentor them so they can become the best they can be...whether or not he'll help take our phins deep into the playoffs remains to be seen...but there's no doubt in my mind that if it wasn't for him,his leadership,and his calm steady play at the QB position,we wouldn't have won the AFC East,much less have made the playoffs for the first time in nearly a decade...plus Henne learning from him will only help Henne become the QB we all hope&pray he'll be for us...that's my take on James Chadwick Pennington...you guys can take it with a grain of salt or whatever you think it's worth...
 
DefensiveEnd76 said:
I have watched ALL 16 games and the playoff game. Chad Pennington has not thrown a 45-50 yard pass. If you think he has then you need to get your eyes checked. The Ravens loved playing against Pennington because their DBs know how weak his arm is and they feasted on him. Ed Reed was licking his chops.
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My eyes work pretty well my friend.

http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d80c54bfe

http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d80bf3bee

http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d80db8326
 
JimToss said:
Nice eye opening article as usual Hugo. Nice and impartial, just presenting statistics, and not the biases that are seen in many Penny articles.

Your article definitely got be thinking about other QB playoff/regular season statistics, because I assume all QB's stats go down due to better competeition/weather problems. I could not find them in the few minutes I was looking, but will probably get back to it. However, I did find this article.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=250

Some of his math I find a little flawed/fudged, but I am very intrigued near the bottom of the article:
"But by far the most significant result comes when looking at win/loss splits. Sure, we should expect winning QBs to have high QB ratings and losing QBs to have low QB ratings, but the split is enormous. Based on the specific QBs that won a playoff game, we’d expect an 86.6 QBR and 6.58 AY/A. They actually had a 92.9 QBR and averaged 7.17 AY/A.
Losing QBs would be expected to have, based on their regular season numbers, an 82.8 QBR and averaged 6.21 AY/A. In reality? A 58.4 QBR and an ugly 4.01 AY/A.
It’s unclear which is the chicken (losing) and which is the egg (low QB Rating) but there’s certainly a very high correlation. "

I am not using this as an excuse for Chad, because both he and the Miami Dolphins team were outmatched/outplayed by the Raven's D. It is definitely a chicken or egg situation. Its easy to see being on the losing end leads to a low QB rating for all QB's, but overall it is very hard to say if that is the QB's fault or it is a combination of the team underperforming.
Not entirely sure where I was going with this post except to point out that interesting stat. Again I think the rest of the article is discredited due to this stat being pulled out. Your article however, sparked an interest in me.
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Fantastic post!

Thanks to all for commenting on here, and if you leave me a comment on the actual article, I'll be sure to respond directly to you.

@Fin # 10 - funny that you mention Manning, because despite his obvious physical/mental gifts and production during the regular season, he's another quarterback that has a reputation of falling short in the playoffs (except for the one Super Bowl run).
 
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Fin #10 said:
My eyes work pretty well my friend.

http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d80c54bfe

http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d80bf3bee

http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d80db8326
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I wouldn't really use that Bill's game as an example since Ginn had completely beat his man and then had to wait for the ball to get to him. I don't have a problem with Chad's deep ball. I have a problem with the fact that he can't really fit it into tight spaces like most of the quarterbacks in the NFL. If you watch other teams play you will see numerous throws that you would never see Chad attempt.
 
Rhody Phins Fan said:
I wouldn't really use that Bill's game as an example since Ginn had completely beat his man and then had to wait for the ball to get to him. I don't have a problem with Chad's deep ball. I have a problem with the fact that he can't really fit it into tight spaces like most of the quarterbacks in the NFL. If you watch other teams play you will see numerous throws that you would never see Chad attempt.
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You're really reaching now man. Keep trying though, this is fun. :lol:
 
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