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Deeper Analysis of Lamar Miller and the Running Game

AJ Duhe

AJ Duhe

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I've heard Bill Lazor take a lot of criticism for giving up on the running game too early and not feeding Lamar Miller enough. I happen to agree with this criticism, but I wanted to find some statistics to back it up.


  • The Dolphins are #2 in the league in rushing average at 4.9 yds/att but only #31 in rushing atts per game (21 att/gm)
  • Among RBs with at least 50 rushing atts, Lamar Miller is #6 in the league at 5.3 yds/att, but he's only 17th in the league in atts at 91 (11.375 att/gm)
  • Lamar Miller's situational splits show that on rushing attempts 1-10, he averages 4.5 yds/att and on attempts 11-20, he averages a whopping 8.4 yds/att
  • Here is the breakdown of Miller's attempts by quarter over the first 8 games:
    • 1st quarter - 30 atts - 3.75 atts/quarter
    • 2nd quarter - 25 atts - 3.125 atts/quarter
    • 3rd quarter - 25 atts - 3.125 atts/quarter
    • 4th quarter - 11 attss - 1.375 atts/quarter
  • ​This might be the most telling stat. In the 4th quarter when the game is within 7 points either way, Miller only has 7 atts for 15 yards and a 2.1 yds/att avg.
  • Looking at Miller's situational rushing attempts when the Dolphins are behind or tied:
    • Behind - 45 atts, 158 yds, 3.5 yds/att
    • Behind by 1-8 points - 19 atts, 77 yds, 4.1 yds/att
    • Behind by 9-16 points -17 atts, 36 yds, 2.1 yds/att
    • Tied - 11 atts, 58 yds, 5.3 yds/att
I would like some more situational team stats to back up my thinking, but in my opinion, these statistics back up what many of us are thinking about Lazor's playcalling in the first half of the season.

1. For a back who is as effective as Miller is per play (5.3 yds/att), Lazor is not getting him nearly enough carries.

2. Some analysts and fans have given Lazor a pass because they think the offense is unbalanced due to the Dolphins being behind so early in games that they must pass to catch up. The attempts Miller gets per quarter tell a different story. In the first quarter, Miller is getting less than 4 attempts. In the 2nd and 3rd quarters, he's getting just about 3 attempts. This means that Lazor isn't feeding Miller even when the game is in reach.

3. Now some will say that Miller can't be counted on to get good yardage in a tight game. Yes, Miller has a paltry 2.1 yds/att in the 4th quarter when we're within 7 points, but I think we have to look at the big picture when analyzing this stat. The statistics also say that Miller get's drastically better with more carries, 8.4 yds/att on 11-20 carries. It's been proven that with more carries, the offensive line gets in a rythm and the running back also gets in a rythm. I think Lazor's early playcalling doesn't really allow either the offensive line or Miller to get into a comfortable rythm, and that translates to late game problems.

Bottomline, Campbell needs to take a page out of the Parcells' philosophy and order Lazor to run the ball regardless of the situation. Even when we're behind but the game is in reach, the running game has the ability to bring the team back if they stick with it.
 
If only this team makes a genuine commitment to the running, I bet we'd have a winning record by now. Am telling you get one or two big ole cornfed offensive guards next year and run the ball hard.
 
AJ Duhe said:
I've heard Bill Lazor take a lot of criticism for giving up on the running game too early and not feeding Lamar Miller enough. I happen to agree with this criticism, but I wanted to find some statistics to back it up.


  • The Dolphins are #2 in the league in rushing average at 4.9 yds/att but only #31 in rushing atts per game (21 att/gm)
  • Among RBs with at least 50 rushing atts, Lamar Miller is #6 in the league at 5.3 yds/att, but he's only 17th in the league in atts at 91 (11.375 att/gm)
  • Lamar Miller's situational splits show that on rushing attempts 1-10, he averages 4.5 yds/att and on attempts 11-20, he averages a whopping 8.4 yds/att
  • Here is the breakdown of Miller's attempts by quarter over the first 8 games:
    • 1st quarter - 30 atts - 3.75 atts/quarter
    • 2nd quarter - 25 atts - 3.125 atts/quarter
    • 3rd quarter - 25 atts - 3.125 atts/quarter
    • 4th quarter - 11 attss - 1.375 atts/quarter
  • ​This might be the most telling stat. In the 4th quarter when the game is within 7 points either way, Miller only has 7 atts for 15 yards and a 2.1 yds/att avg.
  • Looking at Miller's situational rushing attempts when the Dolphins are behind or tied:
    • Behind - 45 atts, 158 yds, 3.5 yds/att
    • Behind by 1-8 points - 19 atts, 77 yds, 4.1 yds/att
    • Behind by 9-16 points -17 atts, 36 yds, 2.1 yds/att
    • Tied - 11 atts, 58 yds, 5.3 yds/att
I would like some more situational team stats to back up my thinking, but in my opinion, these statistics back up what many of us are thinking about Lazor's playcalling in the first half of the season.

1. For a back who is as effective as Miller is per play (5.3 yds/att), Lazor is not getting him nearly enough carries.

2. Some analysts and fans have given Lazor a pass because they think the offense is unbalanced due to the Dolphins being behind so early in games that they must pass to catch up. The attempts Miller gets per quarter tell a different story. In the first quarter, Miller is getting less than 4 attempts. In the 2nd and 3rd quarters, he's getting just about 3 attempts. This means that Lazor isn't feeding Miller even when the game is in reach.

3. Now some will say that Miller can't be counted on to get good yardage in a tight game. Yes, Miller has a paltry 2.1 yds/att in the 4th quarter when we're within 7 points, but I think we have to look at the big picture when analyzing this stat. The statistics also say that Miller get's drastically better with more carries, 8.4 yds/att on 11-20 carries. It's been proven that with more carries, the offensive line gets in a rythm and the running back also gets in a rythm. I think Lazor's early playcalling doesn't really allow either the offensive line or Miller to get into a comfortable rythm, and that translates to late game problems.

Bottomline, Campbell needs to take a page out of the Parcells' philosophy and order Lazor to run the ball regardless of the situation. Even when we're behind but the game is in reach, the running game has the ability to bring the team back if they stick with it.
Click to expand...
crazy how "Miller Time" ends by half. Supposed to pound the keg more as the game goes on. Perhaps even break out the funnels.
 
Can Lazor play on Defence? Defence is the problem. Giving up 30 points a game. Draft LB Jaylon Smith. That's a start.
 
kingfin23 said:
Can Lazor play on Defence? Defence is the problem. Giving up 30 points a game. Draft LB Jaylon Smith. That's a start.
Click to expand...

The average points scored in NFL game this year is 46.9 after 133 games played. So 23.5 points is the average per team.

The Dolphins defense is NOT giving up 30 per game as you stated. It is giving up 25.8 per game. 2.3 more than the average.
The Dolphins offense is scoring 21.4 points per game. That is 2.1 points less than the average.

Seems like both units are under performing as compared to league averages.

In those 133 games only 12 times has a team won scoring 17 or fewer points (9% winning percentage.)
The Miami offense has 5 games out of 8 that they failed to score more than 17 points.
The defense will wear down when the offense fails to score.
 
How Bad is Williams... one of our problems is that when Miller is taking a breather the run game fails and we don't come back to it... THANK GOD FOR AJAYI... can we leave Williams in Miami this weekend...
 
AJ Duhe said:
I've heard Bill Lazor take a lot of criticism for giving up on the running game too early and not feeding Lamar Miller enough. I happen to agree with this criticism, but I wanted to find some statistics to back it up.


  • The Dolphins are #2 in the league in rushing average at 4.9 yds/att but only #31 in rushing atts per game (21 att/gm)
  • Among RBs with at least 50 rushing atts, Lamar Miller is #6 in the league at 5.3 yds/att, but he's only 17th in the league in atts at 91 (11.375 att/gm)
  • Lamar Miller's situational splits show that on rushing attempts 1-10, he averages 4.5 yds/att and on attempts 11-20, he averages a whopping 8.4 yds/att
  • Here is the breakdown of Miller's attempts by quarter over the first 8 games:
    • 1st quarter - 30 atts - 3.75 atts/quarter
    • 2nd quarter - 25 atts - 3.125 atts/quarter
    • 3rd quarter - 25 atts - 3.125 atts/quarter
    • 4th quarter - 11 attss - 1.375 atts/quarter
  • ​This might be the most telling stat. In the 4th quarter when the game is within 7 points either way, Miller only has 7 atts for 15 yards and a 2.1 yds/att avg.
  • Looking at Miller's situational rushing attempts when the Dolphins are behind or tied:
    • Behind - 45 atts, 158 yds, 3.5 yds/att
    • Behind by 1-8 points - 19 atts, 77 yds, 4.1 yds/att
    • Behind by 9-16 points -17 atts, 36 yds, 2.1 yds/att
    • Tied - 11 atts, 58 yds, 5.3 yds/att
I would like some more situational team stats to back up my thinking, but in my opinion, these statistics back up what many of us are thinking about Lazor's playcalling in the first half of the season.

1. For a back who is as effective as Miller is per play (5.3 yds/att), Lazor is not getting him nearly enough carries.

2. Some analysts and fans have given Lazor a pass because they think the offense is unbalanced due to the Dolphins being behind so early in games that they must pass to catch up. The attempts Miller gets per quarter tell a different story. In the first quarter, Miller is getting less than 4 attempts. In the 2nd and 3rd quarters, he's getting just about 3 attempts. This means that Lazor isn't feeding Miller even when the game is in reach.

3. Now some will say that Miller can't be counted on to get good yardage in a tight game. Yes, Miller has a paltry 2.1 yds/att in the 4th quarter when we're within 7 points, but I think we have to look at the big picture when analyzing this stat. The statistics also say that Miller get's drastically better with more carries, 8.4 yds/att on 11-20 carries. It's been proven that with more carries, the offensive line gets in a rythm and the running back also gets in a rythm. I think Lazor's early playcalling doesn't really allow either the offensive line or Miller to get into a comfortable rythm, and that translates to late game problems.

Bottomline, Campbell needs to take a page out of the Parcells' philosophy and order Lazor to run the ball regardless of the situation. Even when we're behind but the game is in reach, the running game has the ability to bring the team back if they stick with it.
Click to expand...

Stats were very interesting OP......thanks for sharing.

Now....I suspect if we do the same exercise on RT and see how effective he is when he passes less than 30 times a game vs. passing over 30 times a game and I think we will all see the balance we need.
 
Oh well OP at this juncture all we can do is hope that the new coaching staff takes advantage. This team is clearly not built to pass more than it runs the ball. But here we are still trying to pass our way into victories...
 
I see a lot of 8- man fronts in the box within 5 yards of the LOS. If Tannehill can't make them pay for that, we're pretty one deminsional. Problem is our OL doesn't seem to lend to lend a hand to Tannehill to make them pay. We need to attack all areas of the field and make them pay when they vacate an area of the field with a LB blitz.
 
Dolphins512 said:
Stats were very interesting OP......thanks for sharing.

Now....I suspect if we do the same exercise on RT and see how effective he is when he passes less than 30 times a game vs. passing over 30 times a game and I think we will all see the balance we need.
Click to expand...

Just had a quick look at Tannehill's situational numbers. I will try to post some analysis tomorrow. Interesting stuff.
 
Good stuff AJ. I have to add one thing in favor of Lazor and Miller in his receiving this year. Last year, Miller caught 38 of 52 for a 7.2 avg, 1 over 20+, and 1 TD. This year. he is 27 of 30 for a 10 yard average. 5 over 20+, and 2 TD's. Miller's receiving is really an extension of his running, and there has been a VG improvement in use by Lazor and execution. This was a soft spot in his game last season, and has really stepped it up.

Really hope we keep him.
 
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