Um -- in 2006, Cam Cameron was OC for the San Diego Chargers, who finished the campaign as the No. 1 seed in the AFC at 14–2, best record in the NFL. The Chargers offense amassed a team-record 494 points while paving the way for league MVP LaDainian Tomlinson to break the single-season touchdown record. The Chargers didn't win a playoff game, losing to the Patriots 24-21 in the divisional round.
In 2007, with Tony Sparano as assistant head coach/line coach, the Dallas Cowboys finished the regular season tied for the best record in the NFC (13–3), and earned a first round bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Cowboys didn't win a playoff game, losing to the Giants in the divisional round.
So yeah, we've had some candidates who coached for teams with winning records since Saban. How has that worked out for us? Frankly, I wouldn't put a lot of weight on the W-L record of an assistant coach's team in predicting his potential success as a head coach. Obviously coming from a winning team doesn't guarantee success (see, e.g., Cameron and Sparano). Likewise, it would be inane to suggest that McCoy will have more success because, although the Broncos were 8-8 with him last year, they actually won a playoff game, unlike Cameron's Chargers and Sparano's Cowboys the year before they became Dolphins head coaches, respectively. There is no correlation.
100% spot on. So many variables weigh into it.
Picture this. Drafting RGIII and having McCoy as a head coach. Imagine an offense tooled to fit RGIII!