Dolphin over-under line moves / Hope you jumped on the 7.5 when you had the chance. | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Dolphin over-under line moves / Hope you jumped on the 7.5 when you had the chance.

I wouldnt touch it now the older lines were good bets
 
1. The over/under on Bovada was moved to 8 wins a while ago. At least a month ago. It had been 7.5 with -145 on the Over, prior to the move.

2. Author got the vig wrong. It's currently -125 on the UNDER, not the over. Author claims the vig is shaded to the over so that if you want to bet over 8 wins you'd have to bet $130 to win $100. Not so. The line went from 7.5 with -145 on the Over to 8.0 with -125 on the Under. The translation is that the win total went from somewhere between 7.5 and 8.0, to somewhere between 7.5 and 8.0, but a little bit higher.
 
ckparrothead said:
1. The over/under on Bovada was moved to 8 wins a while ago. At least a month ago. It had been 7.5 with -145 on the Over, prior to the move.

2. Author got the vig wrong. It's currently -125 on the UNDER, not the over. Author claims the vig is shaded to the over so that if you want to bet over 8 wins you'd have to bet $130 to win $100. Not so. The line went from 7.5 with -145 on the Over to 8.0 with -125 on the Under. The translation is that the win total went from somewhere between 7.5 and 8.0, to somewhere between 7.5 and 8.0, but a little bit higher.
Click to expand...

Awsi posted a 7.8 number (or there abouts) a while ago, not sure where he got it but thats exactly where I think the perfect line is. For a few reasons I think our win/loss window is going to be very tight this season, I think we'll fall between 7-10 wins 90%, maybe even 95% of the time, I would have bet huge on the 6.5 line but 7.5 and 8 is a pretty fair gamble.

If you're gonna bet the over you might as well wait for the beginning of the season, its not gonna go up from here but it might go down if disaster strikes.
 
ckparrothead said:
1. The over/under on Bovada was moved to 8 wins a while ago. At least a month ago. It had been 7.5 with -145 on the Over, prior to the move.

2. Author got the vig wrong. It's currently -125 on the UNDER, not the over. Author claims the vig is shaded to the over so that if you want to bet over 8 wins you'd have to bet $130 to win $100. Not so. The line went from 7.5 with -145 on the Over to 8.0 with -125 on the Under. The translation is that the win total went from somewhere between 7.5 and 8.0, to somewhere between 7.5 and 8.0, but a little bit higher.
Click to expand...

One would be wise to jump on not only the OVER right now, but adjust it to 9.5 and see what odds you can get.

The site I use you can manipulate the lines by a game or two for adjusted odds. Id set it at 9.5, take the OVER, and parlay the winnings into SB tickets. Go to the game for free. That's the ticket.
 
sportsbook still has them at 7.5 -165. afc east odds changed to +350 though.
 
roy_miami said:
Awsi posted a 7.8 number (or there abouts) a while ago, not sure where he got it but thats exactly where I think the perfect line is. For a few reasons I think our win/loss window is going to be very tight this season, I think we'll fall between 7-10 wins 90%, maybe even 95% of the time, I would have bet huge on the 6.5 line but 7.5 and 8 is a pretty fair gamble.

If you're gonna bet the over you might as well wait for the beginning of the season, its not gonna go up from here but it might go down if disaster strikes.
Click to expand...

The 7.8 was from this link:
http://www.beyondthebets.com/cantor...and-a-few-numbers-will-catch-you-by-surprise/

It was a mathematical assessment of how many games Miami is likely to win, based on the early projected pointspreads of each game. As the author pointed out, there was a discrepancy somewhere, because the 6.5 over -120 opening number didn't align with the stated methods of arriving at the 7.81. Either the season win total was too low or the projected spreads were too friendly to the Dolphins. Bettors have decided on the former.
 
I know it's a little off topic, but if you wanna talk good value, how about week 1 spread? Dolphins at -1.5, -120. If you are willing to bet on total wins, thats a must win right there. Obviously, injuries and other things happen, but knowing what we know now, I would jump all over that line. If dolphins cant cover 2 pts against the browns, they have no chance at winning 8 games
 
I'd be inclined to bet on the Dolphins with that spread. In fact I might tease it to a -4.0 or something like that to get better odds. The reason is, IF the Dolphins do end up beating the Browns...it's not going to be close. I think there's a fair chance the Browns win and shock all of us, because Week 1 is like that sometimes, but if the game goes as it should the margin of victory is going to be a lot more than 1.5 points.
 
ckparrothead said:
I'd be inclined to bet on the Dolphins with that spread. In fact I might tease it to a -4.0 or something like that to get better odds. The reason is, IF the Dolphins do end up beating the Browns...it's not going to be close. I think there's a fair chance the Browns win and shock all of us, because Week 1 is like that sometimes, but if the game goes as it should the margin of victory is going to be a lot more than 1.5 points.
Click to expand...

I agree the Fins should win but with the unpredictability of wk1 I wouldn't move the line above 3.
 
I never bet on win totals. I think someone here bet $2000 on this last year and came up a half game short. But I do think we will win between 8 and 11 games...I just wouldn't bet on it.
 
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