Dolphin over-under line moves / Hope you jumped on the 7.5 when you had the chance. | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Dolphin over-under line moves / Hope you jumped on the 7.5 when you had the chance.

I don't usually bet on Dolphins win totals.

But I did well for myself last year on win totals. There were a few win totals that were just way, way too high.

No win total stood out to me more than the Cardinals' win total. It was something insane like 7. I mean, really? I didn't take that line thinking they were going to win 6 or 7 games. I took that line thinking there's a fair chance they only win 3 games. Even when they rattled off 4 games in a row to start the year, I looked at the games, I looked at the schedule, and I remained confident in the bet. They were going to be lucky to win 2 more games all year, but they certainly weren't winning 3 more games.

The Jets over/under was also set insanely high. The team was clearly eating itself, and MARK SANCHEZ was their freakin quarterback. Yeah, like HE was going to keep a steady hand amid the chaos. Sure. LOL. The over/under was set at something insane like 8.5 wins. It was the easiest money I could make all year, aside from the Cardinals bet.

The one I had confidence in for the over was the Seahawks. I forget what the over/under was at, I think 7 wins, but I also bet them to make the playoffs and that paid nicely too. I just though this was a solid team that gets it, as far as how to invest and build a winning team. I had confidence. Not quite the same confidence as the unders on the Jets and Cardinals, but still confidence.

The one bet I lost on the over/unders was the Redskins. What can I say, I got RG3'd. I had an evaluation of him coming out that the Shanahans might not be very quick to adapt their offensive game plan and style to his strengths, and that was DEAD wrong. They created a new offense for him. Everything I'd heard about them prior had led me to believe they were obtusde about how they do things. But they changed a LOT in RG3's favor. Aside from that I thought RG3 would get hurt. He did, but not soon enough. The Shanahans' situation heading into that year just seemed to be on a real chaotic downslope too. I just saw so many risk factors and I was wrong about it. Chalk it up. Wasn't nearly as high confidence a pick as the Jets or Cardinals unders. About the same level as the Seahawks over. So it didn't hurt my bottom line much.

I wasn't inclined toward the Dolphins at 7.5 because I had them at 7-9 for the year and that's too close a margin.

I really want to say that I took the Chiefs at under 8 wins. I can't remember. I know the ones I felt strongly about were the Cardinals, Jets, Seahawks and Redskins but I think I may have also gone under on the Chiefs.
 
I don't usually bet on Dolphins win totals.



The one bet I lost on the over/unders was the Redskins. What can I say, I got RG3'd. I had an evaluation of him coming out that the Shanahans might not be very quick to adapt their offensive game plan
I wasn't inclined toward the Dolphins at 7.5 because I had them at 7-9 for the year and that's too close a margin.

I really want to say that I took the Chiefs at under 8 wins. I can't remember. I know the ones I felt strongly about were the Cardinals, Jets, Seahawks and Redskins but I think I may have also gone under on the Chiefs.

What does your instincts say on the Dolphins record this year?
 
This year one team that has an over/under that makes me feel like I'm taking crazy pills is the Detroit Lions at 8 wins.

This team was 4-12 last year. That's 4 and freaking 12. Somehow they still don't have a receiver to throw the football to opposite Calvin Johnson. I adored Ryan Broyles coming out of college but let's face it, he tore both ACLs in two consecutive years. You lose Gosder Cherilus, who was the best OL you had, and god only knows if Riley Reiff is any good. And who is the other tackle? Seriously. I don't even know. I'm looking at the roster and I don't even know. They also lost Cliff Avril. Kyle Vanden Bosch may be addition by subtraction but not Cliff Avril. We'll see how Zeke Ansah does but he's so raw I don't know that he'lll do extremely well. Secondary is still a goddamn mess until proven otherwise. Linebackers unit isn't special. Essentially, the public is saying Matt Stafford + Calvin Johnson + Reggie Bush = 8 wins. Bull sh-t. Last year Matt Stafford + Calvin Johnson = 4 wins. And that was with guys like Gosder Cherilus and Cliff Avril still there.

Basically, in order to get burned for going with the under on 8 wins, the Lions would have to go from 4-12 to 9-7 despite losing more personnel than they gained in the off season...with the same head coach at the helm. I'll take that bet. Every time.

The other one is the Arizona Cardinals. A year ago I looked at them and wondered how the hell they get more than 4 or 5 wins, whereas their line was set at 7 wins. This year, I look at them and then I look at the 5.5 win total and think...what the hell? So let's get this straight. You've added a new coach who (along with Andrew Luck) turned the worst team in football into a playoff team last year. By the way, ON AVERAGE head coach changes are worth like 1 or 2 whole wins more than you achieved the previous year. Just sayin. Say what you want about Carson Palmer but Carson >>> Kevin Kolb. Nuff said. They just added Eric Winston and John Abraham, plus Karlos Dansby. Say what you want but those are big veteran adds that will fill important positions. Still have Larry Fitzgerald. Remember Michael Floyd? That really high pick receiver heading into his second year? Anyone ever contemplate a "what if" on the scenario where he actually turns out to be somewhat good? The offensive line got a re-make. Sendlein and Colledge were never the problem a year ago, they are still there. A year ago they didn't even have Levi Brown. I don't even think of him as awesome but a year ago they didn't even have him. Now they have Levi Brown and Eric Winston, and Jonathan Cooper instead of Adam Snyder.

The defense is stacked in the front seven. Calais Campbell and Darnell Dockett are beasts. Dan Campbell actually plays well. So does David Carter whom I've always liked. Daryl Washington is awesome and now they have Karlos Dansby back. White wash it all you want, Karlos Dansby was still good last year. Oh and they've also got Kevin Minter? John Abraham and Alex Okafor? Patrick Peterson, Javier Arenas, Antoine Cason, Tyrann Mathieu, Yeremiah Bell and Rashad Johnson?

So let's recap. This team with Carson Palmer, Levi Jones, Eric Winston, Jon Cooper, a second year Michael Floyd, John Abraham, Alex Okafor and Karlos Dansby...is the same 5 win team that it was a year ago when they were working with Kevin Kolb, D'Anthony Batiste, Bobbie Massey, Adam Snyder, a rookie Michael Floyd, Sam Acho, O'Brien Schofield and Paris Lenon...even though they got a new head coach and new head coaches are generally worth +1 or +2 in the win column versus a year ago?

CRAZY PILLS. Crazy pills.

---------- Post added at 04:43 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:42 PM ----------

What does your instincts say on the Dolphins record this year?

8-8. I know, ground breaking stuff, lol.
 
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I never bet on win totals. I think someone here bet $2000 on this last year and came up a half game short. But I do think we will win between 8 and 11 games...I just wouldn't bet on it.

Yeah and he bet around this time last year too while we still had Garrard and Ocho, I believe the line dropped after we lost those guys and Tannehill was named the starter although I don't remember if it dropped enough to where he would have won.
 
One would be wise to jump on not only the OVER right now, but adjust it to 9.5 and see what odds you can get.

The site I use you can manipulate the lines by a game or two for adjusted odds. Id set it at 9.5, take the OVER, and parlay the winnings into SB tickets. Go to the game for free. That's the ticket.

What site and what odds do they give for over 9.5?
 
I never bet on win totals. I think someone here bet $2000 on this last year and came up a half game short. But I do think we will win between 8 and 11 games...I just wouldn't bet on it.

I would only bet on win totals this time of the year if I think there is a good opportunity to get a free roll. For example if you would have bet the over on 6.5 and the under on 8 now you have an essential free roll on 7 or 8 wins.
 
I would only bet on win totals this time of the year if I think there is a good opportunity to get a free roll. For example if you would have bet the over on 6.5 and the under on 8 now you have an essential free roll on 7 or 8 wins.

I got a grand at 6.5, and $120. Kicking myself for not betting more. GODDAMNIT!
 
I got a grand at 6.5, and $120. Kicking myself for not betting more. GODDAMNIT!

well that's if u win bet if u lose bet u will be like damn Im glad I only bet a k. I never do many bets like that that take over a season I prefer college football
 
This year one team that has an over/under that makes me feel like I'm taking crazy pills is the Detroit Lions at 8 wins.

This team was 4-12 last year. That's 4 and freaking 12. Somehow they still don't have a receiver to throw the football to opposite Calvin Johnson. I adored Ryan Broyles coming out of college but let's face it, he tore both ACLs in two consecutive years. You lose Gosder Cherilus, who was the best OL you had, and god only knows if Riley Reiff is any good. And who is the other tackle? Seriously. I don't even know. I'm looking at the roster and I don't even know. They also lost Cliff Avril. Kyle Vanden Bosch may be addition by subtraction but not Cliff Avril. We'll see how Zeke Ansah does but he's so raw I don't know that he'lll do extremely well. Secondary is still a goddamn mess until proven otherwise. Linebackers unit isn't special. Essentially, the public is saying Matt Stafford + Calvin Johnson + Reggie Bush = 8 wins. Bull sh-t. Last year Matt Stafford + Calvin Johnson = 4 wins. And that was with guys like Gosder Cherilus and Cliff Avril still there.

Basically, in order to get burned for going with the under on 8 wins, the Lions would have to go from 4-12 to 9-7 despite losing more personnel than they gained in the off season...with the same head coach at the helm. I'll take that bet. Every time.

The other one is the Arizona Cardinals. A year ago I looked at them and wondered how the hell they get more than 4 or 5 wins, whereas their line was set at 7 wins. This year, I look at them and then I look at the 5.5 win total and think...what the hell? So let's get this straight. You've added a new coach who (along with Andrew Luck) turned the worst team in football into a playoff team last year. By the way, ON AVERAGE head coach changes are worth like 1 or 2 whole wins more than you achieved the previous year. Just sayin. Say what you want about Carson Palmer but Carson >>> Kevin Kolb. Nuff said. They just added Eric Winston and John Abraham, plus Karlos Dansby. Say what you want but those are big veteran adds that will fill important positions. Still have Larry Fitzgerald. Remember Michael Floyd? That really high pick receiver heading into his second year? Anyone ever contemplate a "what if" on the scenario where he actually turns out to be somewhat good? The offensive line got a re-make. Sendlein and Colledge were never the problem a year ago, they are still there. A year ago they didn't even have Levi Brown. I don't even think of him as awesome but a year ago they didn't even have him. Now they have Levi Brown and Eric Winston, and Jonathan Cooper instead of Adam Snyder.

The defense is stacked in the front seven. Calais Campbell and Darnell Dockett are beasts. Dan Campbell actually plays well. So does David Carter whom I've always liked. Daryl Washington is awesome and now they have Karlos Dansby back. White wash it all you want, Karlos Dansby was still good last year. Oh and they've also got Kevin Minter? John Abraham and Alex Okafor? Patrick Peterson, Javier Arenas, Antoine Cason, Tyrann Mathieu, Yeremiah Bell and Rashad Johnson?

So let's recap. This team with Carson Palmer, Levi Jones, Eric Winston, Jon Cooper, a second year Michael Floyd, John Abraham, Alex Okafor and Karlos Dansby...is the same 5 win team that it was a year ago when they were working with Kevin Kolb, D'Anthony Batiste, Bobbie Massey, Adam Snyder, a rookie Michael Floyd, Sam Acho, O'Brien Schofield and Paris Lenon...even though they got a new head coach and new head coaches are generally worth +1 or +2 in the win column versus a year ago?

CRAZY PILLS. Crazy pills.


Basically, the argument in favor of the Lions is not based on personnel moves over the offseason, but on the fact that they overperformed their record last year, had a tough schedule, and had a bunch of bad breaks that are not likely to repeat again, such as a minus 16 turnover differential. More detailed argument here: Bad teams most likely to make playoffs
 
This year one team that has an over/under that makes me feel like I'm taking crazy pills is the Detroit Lions at 8 wins.

This team was 4-12 last year. That's 4 and freaking 12. Somehow they still don't have a receiver to throw the football to opposite Calvin Johnson. I adored Ryan Broyles coming out of college but let's face it, he tore both ACLs in two consecutive years. You lose Gosder Cherilus, who was the best OL you had, and god only knows if Riley Reiff is any good. And who is the other tackle? Seriously. I don't even know. I'm looking at the roster and I don't even know. They also lost Cliff Avril. Kyle Vanden Bosch may be addition by subtraction but not Cliff Avril. We'll see how Zeke Ansah does but he's so raw I don't know that he'lll do extremely well. Secondary is still a goddamn mess until proven otherwise. Linebackers unit isn't special. Essentially, the public is saying Matt Stafford + Calvin Johnson + Reggie Bush = 8 wins. Bull sh-t. Last year Matt Stafford + Calvin Johnson = 4 wins. And that was with guys like Gosder Cherilus and Cliff Avril still there.

Basically, in order to get burned for going with the under on 8 wins, the Lions would have to go from 4-12 to 9-7 despite losing more personnel than they gained in the off season...with the same head coach at the helm. I'll take that bet. Every time.

Reggie Reggie Reggie
 
Basically, the argument in favor of the Lions is not based on personnel moves over the offseason, but on the fact that they overperformed their record last year, had a tough schedule, and had a bunch of bad breaks that are not likely to repeat again, such as a minus 16 turnover differential. More detailed argument here: Bad teams most likely to make playoffs

I don't buy it. A 9+ win team ends up 4-12 because of some bad breaks? I call BS. Sure they MAY have underperformed their talent last year, but not by 5 wins.

And it's not like they have an easy schedule. The only bad teams on the schedule are the Arizona Cardinals and Cleveland Browns. Maybe the Dallas Cowboys if my theory is right about them. And like I said I think the Cardinals could surprise people by being closer to a 7 win team than a 4 win team.
 
Olympic (thegreek.com) has the most options in season wins. They offer NFL teams in relation to college teams, and NFL or college teams in relation to each other. For example, the Canes are -1 victory over the Dolphins. Juice is even both ways but it's a 30 cent cut, so -115. Florida is also -1 against the Dolphins, while Florida State is -2 against the Dolphins. The only NFL team the Dolphins are slotted against is Tampa Bay, with the Dolphins -1 +110.

Opening and funding an account there is another matter, unless you're out of the country.
 
Any thoughts on Cardinals Over 5.5 or Lions Under 8.0?

Am I way off?

Im with you on the Lions under 8.

Cards are a tough read this year, but I have a hunch the over is a good play there. If they played in a different division I could see them winning 8 or 9 games this year.
 
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