Dolphins Blurbs

[Finsup1981]

Very interesting question on Matt Lombardos mailbag…I’ve never seen someone declare a team still in their Super Bowl window and then do nothing but **** on them to explain their reasoning…lol wtf

If any, are there any teams where it feels like this may be the final year of a Super Bowl window? ( phillyfan7 )
This is a fascinating question, one where there aren’t really any easy answers to be found either in last season’s playoff bracket or among the teams that just missed out on the postseason.

But, I think I’ve found two, including one that might surprise folks.

We’ll start in the AFC, where Stephen Ross couldn’t announce quickly enough on Sunday night leading into Black Monday that both Dolphins GM Chris Grier and head coach Mike McDaniel would return for the 2025 season. They both should have been the first executive-coach duo on the chopping block.

Tua Tagovailoa’s injuries notwithstanding, McDaniel’s inability to field a competent offense in the franchise quarterback’s absence is a major red flag, and one that prevented Miami from reaching the postseason for a second consecutive season.

It’s difficult to suggest anything other than the Dolphins underachieved last season, and now there’s growing tension between Tyreek Hill and the organization. So, it’s becoming harder to imagine Miami turning things around in an AFC East that has the potential to be markedly more competitive in 2025.

The Dolphins began last season as the oldest team in the NFL, with an average age of 26.94 years before signing 26-year-old K.J. Britt, 26-year-old running back Alexander Mattison, 27-year-old linebacker Willie Gay Jr., and 30-year-old cornerback Artie Burns. Age doesn’t dictate everything, obviously, but this no longer feels like a team on the rise, but more of a veteran roster looking for an identity.
Moreover, the AFC is a gauntlet, and the Dolphins’ brand of explosive finesse doesn’t seem built to withstand the punishment of the more complete and dynamic rosters across the conference.

 

[hoops]

Win projection from PFF for you gamblers:

MIAMI DOLPHINS (8.5): OVER (+135) / UNDER (-160)​

What needs to go right: The Dolphins ranked last in EPA per play without Tua Tagovailoa on the field in 2024 — a scenario they can’t afford to repeat. While Miami addressed its offensive line in the offseason, questions remain about the unit’s cohesion. Three new starters are expected up front, including free-agent addition James Daniels (who is returning from a torn Achilles) and first-time starters Patrick Paul and rookie Jonah Savaiinaea. Rapid development and chemistry will be critical.

What could go wrong: Coverage was a consistent issue in 2024, with Miami finishing 26th in PFF’s team coverage grade (55.6). The situation could worsen with Jalen Ramsey’s future in question amid trade rumors. Fifth-round pick Jason Marshall Jr. offers potential, but it’s unlikely he’ll provide the immediate impact needed to stabilize the secondary.

PFF Projection: Under 8.5 wins (-160)

I’ll take the under

 

[danmarino7051]

Very interesting question on Matt Lombardos mailbag…I’ve never seen someone declare a team still in their Super Bowl window and then do nothing but **** on them to explain their reasoning…lol wtf

If any, are there any teams where it feels like this may be the final year of a Super Bowl window? ( phillyfan7 )
This is a fascinating question, one where there aren’t really any easy answers to be found either in last season’s playoff bracket or among the teams that just missed out on the postseason.

But, I think I’ve found two, including one that might surprise folks.

We’ll start in the AFC, where Stephen Ross couldn’t announce quickly enough on Sunday night leading into Black Monday that both Dolphins GM Chris Grier and head coach Mike McDaniel would return for the 2025 season. They both should have been the first executive-coach duo on the chopping block.

Tua Tagovailoa’s injuries notwithstanding, McDaniel’s inability to field a competent offense in the franchise quarterback’s absence is a major red flag, and one that prevented Miami from reaching the postseason for a second consecutive season.

It’s difficult to suggest anything other than the Dolphins underachieved last season, and now there’s growing tension between Tyreek Hill and the organization. So, it’s becoming harder to imagine Miami turning things around in an AFC East that has the potential to be markedly more competitive in 2025.

The Dolphins began last season as the oldest team in the NFL, with an average age of 26.94 years before signing 26-year-old K.J. Britt, 26-year-old running back Alexander Mattison, 27-year-old linebacker Willie Gay Jr., and 30-year-old cornerback Artie Burns. Age doesn’t dictate everything, obviously, but this no longer feels like a team on the rise, but more of a veteran roster looking for an identity.
Moreover, the AFC is a gauntlet, and the Dolphins’ brand of explosive finesse doesn’t seem built to withstand the punishment of the more complete and dynamic rosters across the conference.

Also, I don’t think he’s mathing correctly when calling the Dolphins the oldest team. I didn’t look at every team, but just out of the playoff teams last season, the Dolphins would have been dead center for average age.

 

[Golphindolphin]

Also, I don’t think he’s mathing correctly when calling the Dolphins the oldest team. I didn’t look at every team, but just out of the playoff teams last season, the Dolphins would have been dead center for average age.

View attachment 191580

Also worth pointing out that the Phins had the youngest draft class this year, and gone are Calais, Armstead, Poyer, Raheem, and soon to be Ramsey. It will be very interesting to see just how young the 2025 Dolphins end up being.

https://sports.yahoo.com/article/dolphins-2025-draft-class-youngest-174421712.html

 

[Finsup1981]

Dolphins UDFA With Best Chance To Make Roster: BJ Adams​

The Miami Dolphins initially agreed to terms with a sizable 16 undrafted free agents after making eight picks in the 2025 NFL Draft. The Dolphins landed some high-profile rookies. Defensive back BJ Adams is one to monitor this offseason as someone who possesses an opportunity to make the 53-man roster after impressing at rookie and mandatory minicamps.
Dolphins general manager Chris Grier signed Adams to a deal containing $150,000 in salary guarantees. Adams was their fourth-highest-paid undrafted free agent, according to Spotrac's contract info. That insinuates the former UCF standout had alternative potential suitors in rookie free agency and the Dolphins had to outbid the competition to ensure his services.

BJ Adams is staying in the Sunshine State! @bjthegoat_2 @MiamiDolphinspic.twitter.com/9jl1Hz2Fay
— UCF Football (@UCF_Football) April 26, 2025

Adams was one of the few Senior Bowl participants who failed to get drafted. It qualified as a bit surprising because Adams was a routine standout performer in Mobile. The versatile defensive back was particularly impressive during red-zone drills at the all-star showcase, using his 6-foot-1 and 186-pound frame (with 32-inch arms) to his advantage via length and physicality.

If you're searching for reasons why Adams went undrafted, his poor display at the NFL Combine likely played a role. The Atlanta, Georgia native ran a subpar 4.53 in the 40-yard dash. Adams also had lackluster results in the vertical (32 inches) and broad jump (9-foot-9) drills. Nonetheless, the Dolphins were pleased with his availability in undrafted free agency and made an aggressive offer for his signature.

The Dolphins met with Adams in person during the pre-draft process, sources previously confirmed to The Draft Network. Adams' 53-man roster chances are boosted by the Dolphins' thin depth chart at cornerback. It was surprising to see the Dolphins wait until the fifth round of the draft to address a pretty big need in the secondary. Their lone selection at cornerback was Jason Marshall Jr. at No. 150 overall.

.@UCF_Football DB BJ Adams has in-person visits with the Miami Dolphins, Atlanta Falcons, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a source said.

Recent virtuals include the Buffalo Bills, Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, and New York Giants. https://t.co/qdYBAQi4D0
— Justin M (@JustinM_NFL) April 9, 2025

The Dolphins are expected to trade superstar cornerback Jalen Ramsey before training camp begins. His departure will create a huge void in the secondary. As currently constructed, sophomore undrafted signing Storm Duck and the unproven Cam Smith are projected to start on the outside with Kader Kohou at nickel. Marshall Jr. is a depth piece. The Dolphins could still consider signing a veteran like Jaire Alexander or Rasul Douglas, which would change the math here.

There's so much opportunity in the Dolphins' cornerback room right now. It's well within the realm of possibility that Adams could perform his way into a top-three or four role at boundary corner. Adams should continue to maximize his reps at training camp.

 

[Finsup1981]

Eleven NFL Teams Set to Gain Cap Room on June 2nd | Over the Cap

Eleven NFL Teams Set to Gain Cap Room on June 2nd | Over the Cap

overthecap.com

The Dolphins will make the retirement of Terron Armstead official which has negligible cap savings. His cap will drop from $9.1 to $7.8 million in 2025. He will count for $10.73 million on the Dolphins 2026 salary cap.

Impact on the 2026 Salary Cap

Ultimately the savings of 2025 result in dead money in 2026. Here is the breakdown of what the dead money from these contracts, including the retirements/trades above, should look like next year.

Team	2026 Dead Money
Saints	$48,657,324
Jets	$42,650,000
Eagles	$42,072,624
49ers	$20,230,528
Browns	$17,777,000
Cowboys	$16,462,942
Jaguars	$14,600,000
Dolphins	$10,732,750
Ravens	$10,672,918
Texans	$7,324,000
Vikings	$1,628,000

 

[YorkshirePhin]

No but it would be nice to get some contributions from someone other than Achane from the 22/23 draft classes

It would be nice if I woke up next to Anna Armas.....but that aint happening either!

 

[hoops]

Eleven NFL Teams Set to Gain Cap Room on June 2nd | Over the Cap

Eleven NFL Teams Set to Gain Cap Room on June 2nd | Over the Cap

overthecap.com

The Dolphins will make the retirement of Terron Armstead official which has negligible cap savings. His cap will drop from $9.1 to $7.8 million in 2025. He will count for $10.73 million on the Dolphins 2026 salary cap.

Impact on the 2026 Salary Cap

Ultimately the savings of 2025 result in dead money in 2026. Here is the breakdown of what the dead money from these contracts, including the retirements/trades above, should look like next year.

Team	2026 Dead Money
Saints	$48,657,324
Jets	$42,650,000
Eagles	$42,072,624
49ers	$20,230,528
Browns	$17,777,000
Cowboys	$16,462,942
Jaguars	$14,600,000
Dolphins	$10,732,750
Ravens	$10,672,918
Texans	$7,324,000
Vikings	$1,628,000

Well damn I’d rather he play than that

 

[Gulfstream]

 

[djphinfan]

He’s got one more year to get it done using his ways.

Love to see him compete for coach of the year but he’s got to get his team playing with some edge and anger

 

[mwestberry]

It would be nice if I woke up next to Anna Armas.....but that aint happening either!

 

[Finsup1981]

Article on CBs and WRs who matchup best against each other :

BACK-AND-FORTH​

WR JAYLEN WADDLE VS. CB D.J. REED​

The highest-graded game of Waddle’s career came in Week 15 of the 2023 season (92.8), a contest that All-Pro wideout Tyreek Hill missed due to injury, making Waddle the focal point of the Dolphins‘ offense. In that game, Waddle caught eight of nine targets for 142 yards and a touchdown. He got the best of cornerback D.J. Reed, bringing in three of four targets for 92 yards and the touchdown (156.3 passer rating) with him in primary coverage.

2024 was a different story. Reed did not allow a catch across four targets over their two meetings, picking off a pass in the process. Dating back to the start of 2022, Waddle has accounted for five receptions (10 targets), 118 yards and one touchdown, and Reed has logged one interception in a matchup that swung back and forth between the once-division rivals (Reed signed with the Lions this offseason).

NFL’s top WR-CB battles: Recent one-sided and tight matchups

One-on-one duels between the NFL's top wide receivers and cornerbacks are appointment television every season.

www.pff.com

 

[Finsup1981]

Tua fantasy projection:

• Miami's quarterback production surge: Tua Tagovailoa has significantly increased his passing yards per game over the past three seasons with the Miami Dolphins, reaching the second-highest mark among quarterbacks.
• Uncertain Durability in the 2025 Season: Tagovailoa’s multiple concussions are a significant concern, especially without Terron Armstead, as are the injury histories of Tyreek Hilland Jaylen Waddle, who both didn’t look the same last season compared to previous years

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PLAYER PERFORMANCE​

Tua Tagovailoa has spent the last five seasons as the Miami Dolphins starting quarterback. He was a non-factor from a fantasy perspective in his first two seasons, finishing with 181 yards per game followed by 204 yards per game in addition to relatively low touchdown rates. His PFF passing grade was in the mid-60.0s both seasons. He missed notable time in both seasons due to two different hand injuries and fractured ribs.


The Dolphins added Mike McDaniel as head coach and traded for Tyreek Hill, which made a significant difference in Tagovailoa’s production. He led the league in both yards per attempt and touchdowns per attempt, leading him to his career-best 18.5 fantasy points per game, ninth among quarterbacks. Tagovailoa played even better in 2023, finishing with better accuracy and a lower turnover-worthy throw rate, but he didn’t have as good of luck when it came to touchdowns or interceptions. This made him a perfectly fine QB2 option. He became much more conservative in 2024, which helped his turnover-worthy throw rate, but his big-time throw rate nosedived. The Dolphins were throwing the ball more often, so his stats actually improved.

Tagovailoa has averaged 269.2 passing yards per game over the last three seasons, the second-most among quarterbacks. He’s averaged 17.2 fantasy points per game from plays where he passes the ball, fourth-most among players over the last three seasons. However, his rushing value has been almost nothing. The Dolphins haven’t run a designed quarterback run with Tagovailoa the last two seasons, and he rarely scrambles. He hasn’t run for a touchdown since 2021.

Tagovailoa has more variance from one game to the next compared to most quarterbacks. For example, last season, he was a top-six fantasy quarterback at a high rate but also finished outside the top-18 fantasy quarterbacks in over half of his games. He had back-to-back games with 317 passing yards and four touchdowns and 288 passing yards and three touchdowns. However, he was held under 240 passing yards in six of 11 games. This means Tagovailoa can only be in fantasy starting lineups some weeks.

His injury history has been extensive, dating back to his time in college. He’s missed at least four games in four of his five NFL seasons. Most concerning is his history with concussions, where he’s had one in 2019, two in 2022 and one in 2024. He’s missed multiple games after each concussion, including four last season. This puts Tagovailoa at greater risk of suffering another concussion than most quarterbacks, and it puts him at risk of missing significant time if he suffers another one. Anyone drafting Tagovailoa in superflex leagues should prioritize drafting a third quarterback, even if it’s his backup, Zach Wilson, at the end of the draft.

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PROJECTED UTILIZATION​

Tagovailoa enters his fourth season with Mike McDaniel at head coach. The offense has been very consistent in terms of how often Tagovailoa runs or is sacked, and his time to throw has been consistently low. His average depth of target, deep target rate, and pass rate over expected have changed based on how well his receivers and running backs are playing.

Tagovailoa’s passing dropbacks per game have increased each season under McDaniel, despite their pass rate over expected decreasing. This has been due to an increase in plays per game. Ideally, the Dolphins continue running a high number of plays, but it’s possible the plays per game regress, and they become even more run-heavy with De’Von Achane at running back.

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IMPACT OF TEAMMATES​

The Dolphins made minimal changes to their skill players, wide receiver Nick Westbrook-Ikhine was the most notable addition. Jonnu Smith was signed last season, giving Tagovailoa a receiving tight end, which he lacked in the two previous seasons. Smith played a large role in keeping Tagovailoa’s fantasy value high last season.

The bigger concerns are at wide receiver, where Tyreek Hill went from a 94.0 receiving grade in 2023 to 77.3 in 2024, while Jaylen Waddle’s receiving grade fell from 90.9 in 2023 to 71.5 in 2024. Hill dealt with a wrist injury all season, but there are other signs that he has declined as a player that weren’t related to his wrist. Waddle also has an extensive history of injuries. He didn’t have as many reported injuries last season, but he also didn’t seem 100%. If both players are able to return to form and everyone can stay healthy, this should be the best version of the Dolphins offense under McDaniel. However, that is a big if considering the injury history of all of the important players involved.

There is also concern about the offensive line, as five-time Pro Bowl left tackle Terron Armstead retired. Patrick Paul is slated to replace him, and he was underwhelming in his limited opportunities in his rookie season. To help make up for this, the Dolphins added veteran James Daniels and drafted Jonah Savaiinaea at guard, which replaces two players who had PFF pass-blocking grades below 55.0 last season. The two upgrades and one downgrade are still a net loss because that’s how excellent Armstead was as a pass protector. Tagovailoa had a 1.1% turnover-worthy throw rate without pressure and a 7.5% rate when under pressure last season.

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BOTTOM LINE​

Tua Tagovailoa has been a high-risk, high-reward quarterback over the last three years, and that will especially be true this year. The offense looks as good as ever on paper, but the recent injury history of Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle leaves a lot of ways things can go wrong. Tagovailoa is an acceptable late-round backup option in single-quarterback leagues and a second option in superflex leagues. He is a quarterback who is a better option in best-ball leagues than in redraft leagues.

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[Finsup1981]

McDs thoughts on our offseason program OTA/minicamp

“I think the point of our offseason program was to take action with what we want to do as a team in this period of time, understanding that you can’t play any games, but you can make a lot of gains in your game," McDaniel said.

It did not take the fourth-year head coach too much longer to utter a word that has become a theme this offseason with the Dolphins.

“I think a team bond has occurred where you have a team identity, a standard has been created of how we do our business that is where I want it," McDaniel said.

While identity and culture change has been a major topic and theme in OTAs and minicamp, McDaniel gave some detail on how that can occur.

“I think now that you’ve identified that, you have the systems in place. It's the daily application and commitment to what we’ve started in the process. I’m happy about where we’re at, not to be confused with that meaning anything. But, so far, we’ve put ourselves in a position to have developed our football game and ourselves as a team going into summer break," McDaniel said.


McDaniel was asked to compare this year's OTAs and minicamp versus last season's.

"I think much of when you have as a team, you don’t meet near the expectations, particularly with the guys that are on the team this year that were on the team last year, you find conviction in what needs to occur. So I think a lot of this offseason was shaped partly in form of things that we’ve learned. Like any year, you learn lessons, but particularly last year.

"I think guys were highly motivated to have a different sense of team at this point, and because of that, because they were motivated, I think all the people in place have worked together to satisfy that. I think we’ve established what our standard of our team is and that’s a big, big deal moving forward, but how big a deal? You can choose by way of how much you apply that standard and how critical you are when guys don’t meet it," McDaniel said.

There seems to be a new order in Miami in terms of what will be tolerated, and McDaniel said many things without saying exact words over the course of the last few press conferences to both motivate and put players on notice.

 

[Finsup1981]

Morning Mr. Poupart. Thanks for all the ongoing updates, very much appreciated. I did have a thought/question for the mailbag: Haven't been hearing too much, relatively speaking, about the LB unit. Everyone is rightfully concerned about the secondary, and the DL is more or less gonna hinge on Phillips/Chubb's ability to come back into form. But what about the LBs? Is the team more or less set with what they've got? And, if so, what's your level of comfort moving forward?

Hey Damian, yeah, I think the Dolphins are very set at linebacker with Jordyn Brooks, Tyrel Dodson, Willie Gay Jr., K.J. Britt and Channing Tindall. Brooks had a very good first season for Miami in 2024 and there’s reason to hope for even more this year. I think it’s a much deeper group than last year and there’s really intriguing potential there if Brooks takes the next step.

Hey Alain, I'm not sure how the Dolphins are gonna try to sell hope in order to get butts in seats this season. They have a ton of holes and are depending on bargain basement shopping to fill them. 6-11 or 7-10 coming. Your thoughts?

Hey Jason, it’s every team’s job to sell hope at this time of year, and the Dolphins are no different. I get the reason for concern because this team does have a lot of question marks, but the offense still have the potential to be effective and the defense could be better than expected if Chubb and Phillips both come back to form. Bottom line: I get thinking it could be bad, but I certainly wouldn’t give up on the season at this time.