Tua fantasy projection:
- Miami's quarterback production surge: Tua Tagovailoa has significantly increased his passing yards per game over the past three seasons with the Miami Dolphins, reaching the second-highest mark among quarterbacks.
- Uncertain Durability in the 2025 Season: Tagovailoa’s multiple concussions are a significant concern, especially without Terron Armstead, as are the injury histories of Tyreek Hilland Jaylen Waddle, who both didn’t look the same last season compared to previous years
PLAYER PERFORMANCE
Tua Tagovailoa has spent the last five seasons as the
Miami Dolphins starting quarterback. He was a non-factor from a fantasy perspective in his first two seasons, finishing with 181 yards per game followed by 204 yards per game in addition to relatively low touchdown rates. His PFF passing grade was in the mid-60.0s both seasons. He missed notable time in both seasons due to two different hand injuries and fractured ribs.
The Dolphins added Mike McDaniel as head coach and traded for
Tyreek Hill, which made a significant difference in Tagovailoa’s production. He led the league in both yards per attempt and touchdowns per attempt, leading him to his career-best 18.5 fantasy points per game, ninth among quarterbacks. Tagovailoa played even better in 2023, finishing with better accuracy and a lower turnover-worthy throw rate, but he didn’t have as good of luck when it came to touchdowns or interceptions. This made him a perfectly fine QB2 option. He became much more conservative in 2024, which helped his turnover-worthy throw rate, but his big-time throw rate nosedived. The Dolphins were throwing the ball more often, so his stats actually improved.
Tagovailoa has averaged 269.2 passing yards per game over the last three seasons, the second-most among quarterbacks. He’s averaged 17.2 fantasy points per game from plays where he passes the ball, fourth-most among players over the last three seasons. However, his rushing value has been almost nothing. The Dolphins haven’t run a designed quarterback run with Tagovailoa the last two seasons, and he rarely scrambles. He hasn’t run for a touchdown since 2021.
Tagovailoa has more variance from one game to the next compared to most quarterbacks. For example, last season, he was a top-six fantasy quarterback at a high rate but also finished outside the top-18 fantasy quarterbacks in over half of his games. He had back-to-back games with 317 passing yards and four touchdowns and 288 passing yards and three touchdowns. However, he was held under 240 passing yards in six of 11 games. This means Tagovailoa can only be in fantasy starting lineups some weeks.
His injury history has been extensive, dating back to his time in college. He’s missed at least four games in four of his five NFL seasons. Most concerning is his history with concussions, where he’s had one in 2019, two in 2022 and one in 2024. He’s missed multiple games after each concussion, including four last season. This puts Tagovailoa at greater risk of suffering another concussion than most quarterbacks, and it puts him at risk of missing significant time if he suffers another one. Anyone drafting Tagovailoa in superflex leagues should prioritize drafting a third quarterback, even if it’s his backup,
Zach Wilson, at the end of the draft.
PROJECTED UTILIZATION
Tagovailoa enters his fourth season with Mike McDaniel at head coach. The offense has been very consistent in terms of how often Tagovailoa runs or is sacked, and his time to throw has been consistently low. His average depth of target, deep target rate, and pass rate over expected have changed based on how well his receivers and running backs are playing.
Tagovailoa’s passing dropbacks per game have increased each season under McDaniel, despite their pass rate over expected decreasing. This has been due to an increase in plays per game. Ideally, the Dolphins continue running a high number of plays, but it’s possible the plays per game regress, and they become even more run-heavy with
De’Von Achane at running back.
IMPACT OF TEAMMATES
The Dolphins made minimal changes to their skill players, wide receiver
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine was the most notable addition.
Jonnu Smith was signed last season, giving Tagovailoa a receiving tight end, which he lacked in the two previous seasons. Smith played a large role in keeping Tagovailoa’s fantasy value high last season.
The bigger concerns are at wide receiver, where
Tyreek Hill went from a 94.0 receiving grade in 2023 to 77.3 in 2024, while
Jaylen Waddle’s receiving grade fell from 90.9 in 2023 to 71.5 in 2024. Hill dealt with a wrist injury all season, but there are
other signs that he has declined as a player that weren’t related to his wrist. Waddle also has an extensive history of injuries. He didn’t have as many reported injuries last season, but he
also didn’t seem 100%. If both players are able to return to form and everyone can stay healthy, this should be the best version of the Dolphins offense under McDaniel. However, that is a big if considering the injury history of all of the important players involved.
There is also concern about the offensive line, as five-time Pro Bowl left tackle
Terron Armstead retired.
Patrick Paul is slated to replace him, and he was underwhelming in his limited opportunities in his rookie season. To help make up for this, the Dolphins added veteran
James Daniels and drafted
Jonah Savaiinaea at guard, which replaces two players who had PFF pass-blocking grades below 55.0 last season. The two upgrades and one downgrade are still a net loss because that’s how excellent Armstead was as a pass protector. Tagovailoa had a 1.1% turnover-worthy throw rate without pressure and a 7.5% rate when under pressure last season.
BOTTOM LINE
Tua Tagovailoa has been a high-risk, high-reward quarterback over the last three years, and that will especially be true this year. The offense looks as good as ever on paper, but the recent injury history of Tagovailoa,
Tyreek Hill and
Jaylen Waddle leaves a lot of ways things can go wrong. Tagovailoa is an acceptable late-round backup option in single-quarterback leagues and a second option in superflex leagues. He is a quarterback who is a better option in best-ball leagues than in redraft leagues.
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