Dolphins Defense Now DFL In Third Down Conversion Percent Allowed

[LarryLarry]

I might not have the numbers exactly right but they are close.
Last year the Dolphins D was # in the NFL in opponents third down conversion rate, allowing only 31% of third downs to be converted.
This year, the Dolphins D is DFL (dead effing last) in the NFL in opponents third down conversion rate, allowing a whopping 59% of third downs to be converted.
That is a staggering difference. A few thoughts:
-This is why the team has looked so bad. Football is a complimentary game, can't stay on the field on offense, can't get off the field on defense. That is a toxic combination
-Why the difference? Granted it is early, but not a pretty trend. My guess is the D is not that talented. One great player (Howard), a terrible front 7, and the secondary is asked to do too much. I think the Dolphins tried to compensate with scheme. They still have the highest blitz % in the NFL. I suspect last year they caught the NFL by surprise, and got a little lucky. So their statistics were better than their underlying talent. I think this year, the NFL has a ton of tape, and finally figured out their tendencies, and they have probably been a bit unlucky. Net/net the gap is bigger than the underlying talent. Last years #1 was higher than it should have been, this years last place lower than it should be. HOWEVER, sadly, this defense, after the rebuild, is still average at best. Heck at this point they are in the bottom 10 in the NFL in yards and points allowed.

Worrisome. Especially so when the offense stinks as well.

 

[Travis34]

The offense isnt doing the defense any favors either.... the guys have to be dead tired by the 3rd/4th quarter and naturally will start giving up more plays.. I dont think youre wrong on the talent thing either. We need like 1 more good player on the DL and LB to really help. Baker is okay. Roberts stuffs the run and thats about it, if he guess the right hole. AVG/Phillips developing as pass rushers, I'll give them a pass. But man. Something needs to happen.

 

[Fin-Loco]

I might not have the numbers exactly right but they are close.
Last year the Dolphins D was # in the NFL in opponents third down conversion rate, allowing only 31% of third downs to be converted.
This year, the Dolphins D is DFL (dead effing last) in the NFL in opponents third down conversion rate, allowing a whopping 59% of third downs to be converted.
That is a staggering difference. A few thoughts:
-This is why the team has looked so bad. Football is a complimentary game, can't stay on the field on offense, can't get off the field on defense. That is a toxic combination
-Why the difference? Granted it is early, but not a pretty trend. My guess is the D is not that talented. One great player (Howard), a terrible front 7, and the secondary is asked to do too much. I think the Dolphins tried to compensate with scheme. They still have the highest blitz % in the NFL. I suspect last year they caught the NFL by surprise, and got a little lucky. So their statistics were better than their underlying talent. I think this year, the NFL has a ton of tape, and finally figured out their tendencies, and they have probably been a bit unlucky. Net/net the gap is bigger than the underlying talent. Last years #1 was higher than it should have been, this years last place lower than it should be. HOWEVER, sadly, this defense, after the rebuild, is still average at best. Heck at this point they are in the bottom 10 in the NFL in yards and points allowed.

Worrisome. Especially so when the offense stinks as well.

You don't have the numbers? So you're basing the thread on a feeling?

 

[fansinceGWilson]

I might not have the numbers exactly right but they are close.
Last year the Dolphins D was # in the NFL in opponents third down conversion rate, allowing only 31% of third downs to be converted.
This year, the Dolphins D is DFL (dead effing last) in the NFL in opponents third down conversion rate, allowing a whopping 59% of third downs to be converted.
That is a staggering difference. A few thoughts:
-This is why the team has looked so bad. Football is a complimentary game, can't stay on the field on offense, can't get off the field on defense. That is a toxic combination
-Why the difference? Granted it is early, but not a pretty trend. My guess is the D is not that talented. One great player (Howard), a terrible front 7, and the secondary is asked to do too much. I think the Dolphins tried to compensate with scheme. They still have the highest blitz % in the NFL. I suspect last year they caught the NFL by surprise, and got a little lucky. So their statistics were better than their underlying talent. I think this year, the NFL has a ton of tape, and finally figured out their tendencies, and they have probably been a bit unlucky. Net/net the gap is bigger than the underlying talent. Last years #1 was higher than it should have been, this years last place lower than it should be. HOWEVER, sadly, this defense, after the rebuild, is still average at best. Heck at this point they are in the bottom 10 in the NFL in yards and points allowed.

Worrisome. Especially so when the offense stinks as well.

"Terrible front 7" is too much. Miami is better at setting the edge and is mid tier in opponent's YPC. IMO, the problem is no pass rush. I frequently count 5 before the QB throws the ball. No D can survive that. I agree, the D looks worse and can't explain all of it, but I don't think it's the entire D

 

[TrinidadDolfan]

I might not have the numbers exactly right but they are close.
Last year the Dolphins D was # in the NFL in opponents third down conversion rate, allowing only 31% of third downs to be converted.
This year, the Dolphins D is DFL (dead effing last) in the NFL in opponents third down conversion rate, allowing a whopping 59% of third downs to be converted.
That is a staggering difference. A few thoughts:
-This is why the team has looked so bad. Football is a complimentary game, can't stay on the field on offense, can't get off the field on defense. That is a toxic combination
-Why the difference? Granted it is early, but not a pretty trend. My guess is the D is not that talented. One great player (Howard), a terrible front 7, and the secondary is asked to do too much. I think the Dolphins tried to compensate with scheme. They still have the highest blitz % in the NFL. I suspect last year they caught the NFL by surprise, and got a little lucky. So their statistics were better than their underlying talent. I think this year, the NFL has a ton of tape, and finally figured out their tendencies, and they have probably been a bit unlucky. Net/net the gap is bigger than the underlying talent. Last years #1 was higher than it should have been, this years last place lower than it should be. HOWEVER, sadly, this defense, after the rebuild, is still average at best. Heck at this point they are in the bottom 10 in the NFL in yards and points allowed.

Worrisome. Especially so when the offense stinks as well.

You can start by understanding that our D is gassed and on the field too much because our O is very bad.

Our D was in the field for over 40min against the Raiders. We cannot expect them to perform at a high level under those circumstances.

 

[AdamD13]

Didn’t help that Davis got hurt right away.

I liked what I saw in Phillips this past week. The coaches have taken a cautious approach after being injured during camp.

If Miami avoids significant injuries, the defense will get better as the season progresses.

 

[Travis34]

Didn’t help that Davis got hurt right away.

I liked what I saw in Phillips this past week. The coaches have taken a cautious approach after being injured during camp.

If Miami avoids significant injuries, the defense will get better as the season progresses.

Yeah I was really hoping to see Davis be an impactful player for us, I mean, that remains to be seen, but seems promising in camp

 

[cash]

We've played 2 really really solid teams and a super bowl contender.

 

[Travis34]

We've played 2 really really solid teams and a super bowl contender.

but are you sure the sky isnt falling?

 

[Beach Bum]

I might not have the numbers exactly right but they are close.
Last year the Dolphins D was # in the NFL in opponents third down conversion rate, allowing only 31% of third downs to be converted.
This year, the Dolphins D is DFL (dead effing last) in the NFL in opponents third down conversion rate, allowing a whopping 59% of third downs to be converted.
That is a staggering difference. A few thoughts:
-This is why the team has looked so bad. Football is a complimentary game, can't stay on the field on offense, can't get off the field on defense. That is a toxic combination
-Why the difference? Granted it is early, but not a pretty trend. My guess is the D is not that talented. One great player (Howard), a terrible front 7, and the secondary is asked to do too much. I think the Dolphins tried to compensate with scheme. They still have the highest blitz % in the NFL. I suspect last year they caught the NFL by surprise, and got a little lucky. So their statistics were better than their underlying talent. I think this year, the NFL has a ton of tape, and finally figured out their tendencies, and they have probably been a bit unlucky. Net/net the gap is bigger than the underlying talent. Last years #1 was higher than it should have been, this years last place lower than it should be. HOWEVER, sadly, this defense, after the rebuild, is still average at best. Heck at this point they are in the bottom 10 in the NFL in yards and points allowed.

Worrisome. Especially so when the offense stinks as well.

I am not saying we can't improve. Throw out the Buffalo game. It's an outlier, and then let us see where we stand.

 

[Vaark]

That thumping by Buffalo was very disturbing.. as a stand alone. However, as others pointed out, when the D is on the field for so long, which up to a point did a decent-good job containing Allen, fatigue and demotivation are gonna set it.

Still and all, If it weren't for Oakland refs' blatant end zone home cooking, err, LV, we should be 2-1

 

[Beach Bum]

That thumping by Buffalo was very disturbing.. as a stand alone. However, as others pointed out, when the D is on the field for so long, which up to a point did a decent-good job containing Allen, fatigue and demotivation are gonna set it.

Still and all, If it weren't for Oakland refs' blatant end zone home cooking, err, LV, we should be 2-1

View attachment 86299

Off-topic a tad, but since you brought it up, did anyone hear about that lousy no-call? Did anyone ask the league about it, and if so, what did they say?

 

[Dolph N.Fan]

Both units suck on 3rd down. They're killing each other because of it.

 

[EPBro]

1st last year and now dead last.

Complimentary football is what I would like to blame it out....

But the reality is that we can't pressure with our down 4.

So we either have to blitz (which we did very effectively las season) or we have to play coverage (and can't generate pressure).

Flo's scheme and all of these stupid defensive backs and we cant man cover long enough for AVG, Phillips or Ogbah to get there.

AVG was supposed to make us all forgot about KVN. Now KVN is a shell of his former self but AVG has been nowhere to be seen.

This team is way too young and still 2 years away from being a good product - minimum.

 

[SCOTTY]

"Terrible front 7" is too much. Miami is better at setting the edge and is mid tier in opponent's YPC. IMO, the problem is no pass rush. I frequently count 5 before the QB throws the ball. No D can survive that. I agree, the D looks worse and can't explain all of it, but I don't think it's the entire D

"Frequently count to 5 before the QB throws the ball"...I call complete BS
Where do these things come from??