PROUDMONKEY
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Originally posted at
http://thedolphininsider.blogspot.com/
NFL Draft Trends from the last 5 years
Being a Dolphin fan and the fact that this team holds the first pick in the 08 draft, was the worst team in the league last year, holds 3 picks on day one, and 5 picks within the first 100 picks, the draft has taken up a lot of my free time with thoughts and analysis.
Up until about a week ago, I had taken a general assumption that Miami will automatically secure about five starters out of the upcoming draft, and to my dismay, landing five quality starters would be considered an extraordinary accomplishment based on the trends from the last 5 years of NFL Drafts.
This team is so bad and has needs at virtually every position, and because Parcells is a master of shopping for groceries, this team may still land a minimum of five starters out of pure necessity.
Due to injuries and a piss poor depth of talent last year, The Dolphins had somewhere between 7-10 first year players obtain considerable playing time last year. This coming year may be no exception.
After analyzing all the picks from the drafts occurring between 2002-2007 from every NFL team, here are some numbers I uncovered…
Over the last five years, each team has made an average of 40 picks per team. Of these 40 picks, 10 become starters, 13 are backups, 6 leave for another team, and 11 of the lot are out of the NFL entirely. On an annual basis, this works out to each team averaging 8 picks a year, and of the 8 annual picks, 2 will become starters, 3 will make the team as a backup, 1 will not make the roster but land on another team, and 2 will be cut and not play in the league at all.
Over the last three years(2005-2007), the annual average is 8 picks per year, 2 starters, 4 backups, 1 makes the roster on another team, and 1 is no longer in the NFL.
The Dolphins have selected 37 players over the last 5 years, with 11 becoming starters, 12 are backups, 8 sign with another team ,and 6 are no longer in the NFL. Over the last 3 drafts, there have been 22 selections, with 8 becoming starters, 11 backups, 3 on another team, and zero players out of the league entirely. The annual Average for the Dolphins is 7 picks a year, with 2 becoming starters, 2 become backups, 2 sign with another team, and 1 out of the league.
The Denver Broncos jump off the page as holding the dubious honor of having the worst results over the last five years. The Broncos have made a total of 37 NFL draft picks since 2002 with more than half, or 19 players, no longer playing in the NFL at all. In total, The Broncos have turned these 37 picks into 6 starters, 7 backups and losing another 5 to other NFL teams. Since 2002, 65% of the Broncos picks are no longer with the team, or a ratio of 2 out of every three picks.
The Indianapolis Colts from two years ago started 100% or 22 players on offense and defense in the Superbowl that were all homegrown draft picks. They have a reputation of building their roster via draft and the results demonstrate this philosophy. Of the Colts 26 picks over the last 3 drafts, they have obtained 8 starters and 13 backups. In other words 81% of their picks since 2005 have made the roster. But they are not the most efficient NFL team in the draft since 2002.
Surprising to me, the leader over the last three drafts turns out to be the Baltimore Ravens with a retention rate of 92%. Of their 24 picks, they have secured 8starters and 14 backups.
The most efficient team over five years is the Arizona Cardinals with a retention rate of 70% since 2002. The Cards have made a total of 33 picks that have resulted in 14 starters and 9 backups. That works out to 42% of picks becoming starters. Carolina Panthers are the worst in this stat with only converting 6 of 39 total picks into starters, or 15% of all picks since 2002.
Over the last 3 drafts, the Dolphins lead the AFC east in converting 19 of 22 picks into starters or backups. The million dollar question is this sign of good drafting or a bad team making desperate attempts to fill holes on a weak roster. I’m guessing more of the later.
Assuming Miami makes about 7-10 picks this year by adding a pick here or there from wheeling and dealing or acquiring supplemental picks, a reasonable expectation is to forecast we will add about 7 total players to the roster in 2008 with 3 becoming starters, and 4 serving as backups and special team players. It is worthy to note that the Draft is Parcells specialty so here is to hoping he surprises and exceeds our expectations.
The good news is the darkest days of this franchise are behind us, and there is only way to go from a miserable 2007 1-15 campaign.
http://thedolphininsider.blogspot.com/
NFL Draft Trends from the last 5 years
Being a Dolphin fan and the fact that this team holds the first pick in the 08 draft, was the worst team in the league last year, holds 3 picks on day one, and 5 picks within the first 100 picks, the draft has taken up a lot of my free time with thoughts and analysis.
Up until about a week ago, I had taken a general assumption that Miami will automatically secure about five starters out of the upcoming draft, and to my dismay, landing five quality starters would be considered an extraordinary accomplishment based on the trends from the last 5 years of NFL Drafts.
This team is so bad and has needs at virtually every position, and because Parcells is a master of shopping for groceries, this team may still land a minimum of five starters out of pure necessity.
Due to injuries and a piss poor depth of talent last year, The Dolphins had somewhere between 7-10 first year players obtain considerable playing time last year. This coming year may be no exception.
After analyzing all the picks from the drafts occurring between 2002-2007 from every NFL team, here are some numbers I uncovered…
Over the last five years, each team has made an average of 40 picks per team. Of these 40 picks, 10 become starters, 13 are backups, 6 leave for another team, and 11 of the lot are out of the NFL entirely. On an annual basis, this works out to each team averaging 8 picks a year, and of the 8 annual picks, 2 will become starters, 3 will make the team as a backup, 1 will not make the roster but land on another team, and 2 will be cut and not play in the league at all.
Over the last three years(2005-2007), the annual average is 8 picks per year, 2 starters, 4 backups, 1 makes the roster on another team, and 1 is no longer in the NFL.
The Dolphins have selected 37 players over the last 5 years, with 11 becoming starters, 12 are backups, 8 sign with another team ,and 6 are no longer in the NFL. Over the last 3 drafts, there have been 22 selections, with 8 becoming starters, 11 backups, 3 on another team, and zero players out of the league entirely. The annual Average for the Dolphins is 7 picks a year, with 2 becoming starters, 2 become backups, 2 sign with another team, and 1 out of the league.
The Denver Broncos jump off the page as holding the dubious honor of having the worst results over the last five years. The Broncos have made a total of 37 NFL draft picks since 2002 with more than half, or 19 players, no longer playing in the NFL at all. In total, The Broncos have turned these 37 picks into 6 starters, 7 backups and losing another 5 to other NFL teams. Since 2002, 65% of the Broncos picks are no longer with the team, or a ratio of 2 out of every three picks.
The Indianapolis Colts from two years ago started 100% or 22 players on offense and defense in the Superbowl that were all homegrown draft picks. They have a reputation of building their roster via draft and the results demonstrate this philosophy. Of the Colts 26 picks over the last 3 drafts, they have obtained 8 starters and 13 backups. In other words 81% of their picks since 2005 have made the roster. But they are not the most efficient NFL team in the draft since 2002.
Surprising to me, the leader over the last three drafts turns out to be the Baltimore Ravens with a retention rate of 92%. Of their 24 picks, they have secured 8starters and 14 backups.
The most efficient team over five years is the Arizona Cardinals with a retention rate of 70% since 2002. The Cards have made a total of 33 picks that have resulted in 14 starters and 9 backups. That works out to 42% of picks becoming starters. Carolina Panthers are the worst in this stat with only converting 6 of 39 total picks into starters, or 15% of all picks since 2002.
Over the last 3 drafts, the Dolphins lead the AFC east in converting 19 of 22 picks into starters or backups. The million dollar question is this sign of good drafting or a bad team making desperate attempts to fill holes on a weak roster. I’m guessing more of the later.
Assuming Miami makes about 7-10 picks this year by adding a pick here or there from wheeling and dealing or acquiring supplemental picks, a reasonable expectation is to forecast we will add about 7 total players to the roster in 2008 with 3 becoming starters, and 4 serving as backups and special team players. It is worthy to note that the Draft is Parcells specialty so here is to hoping he surprises and exceeds our expectations.
The good news is the darkest days of this franchise are behind us, and there is only way to go from a miserable 2007 1-15 campaign.
