Dolphins Favored by 6.5 vs Vikings (Crowd vs Crowd?)

[Fins1971]

The starting line from Top Bet is Miami favored by 6.5

In the past AWSI has mentioned games like this with team with similar records as crowd vs crowd.
If more than 4 points you are supposed to take the points. This would seem to be a crowd vs crowd game with both virtually eliminated from playoffs. History would seem to say this is going to be a closer game than point spread infurs.
I think I am taking the points.

Games involving Miami and Minnesota beginning with the 2000 season: 2000 season: Week 2 Sun Sep 10 2000 at Min Minnesota 13, Miami 7 2002 season: Week 16 Sat Dec 21 2002 at Min Minnesota 20, Miami 17 2006 season: Week 11 Sun Nov 19 2006 at Mia Miami 24, Minnesota 20 2010 season: Week 2 Sun Sep 19 2010 at Min Miami 14, Minnesota 10 2014 season: Week 16 Sun Dec 21 2014 Min at Mia

Primary team Miami: 2-2 Points for Miami: 62 Points against Miami: 63

 

[Awsi Dooger]

I loved the header. I said, wait a minute, that's my terminology.

Yes, Crowd vs. Crowd is a category I came up with in 1984. It was a big hit with the audience when I started appearing on Las Vegas radio shows in 1988. I remember a guy called in from Oregon and said my picks weren't always the best but he never knew what I was going to say, unlike the guys from the tout services like Jim Feist.

I mentioned deep in Hayden's thread last night that I already took +7 on the Vikings at 5Dimes. They had 7 flat for several hours while other joints were 6.5 flat. Now there is juice on Minnesota at 5Dimes.

Those systems are a grind. They are designed to hit 55 or 58 out of 100, not to win a specific game. The Dolphins are not only a Crowd team, but now that they are .500 and giving -6 or higher at home, they also trigger that angle. I would be taking the points even with a Crap team like Jacksonville, as long as it's +6 or above.

Always remember that is a home system, not road. On the road there can be too much disparity if the .500 team is favored by -6 or higher. You need the bonus adjustment points from the home team that isn't very good to begin with.

The theory behind Crowd vs. Crowd or similar angles is that mediocre teams aren't worthy of big favoritism. Sure there may be differences between the Dolphins and Vikings but in that mid level category the spread generally assigns a higher and more rigid gap than is really there. Parity shouldn't carry a high price tag.

As always, nothing is perfect. The Vikings use a rookie quarterback, and rookie quarterbacks often don't put up many points. At one stage I had tons of disqualifying angles but now I prefer to rely on the foundational ones.

I still root for the Dolphins even when I bet the opponent. Obviously if the opportunity is there for Miami to win but the Vikings to cover, I hope that happens.

BTW, I am also betting against the Canes in the bowl game against South Carolina. Somehow Miami is a 3 point favorite. That triggers one of my absolute favorite systems, taking a bowl game underdog that was rated higher in preseason. South Carolina was rated #9 while the Canes were nowhere.

That system fits my belief that everything tends to drift back to the beginning.

 

[HarryBagpipe]

I loved the header. I said, wait a minute, that's my terminology.

Yes, Crowd vs. Crowd is a category I came up with in 1984. It was a big hit with the audience when I started appearing on Las Vegas radio shows in 1988. I remember a guy called in from Oregon and said my picks weren't always the best but he never knew what I was going to say, unlike the guys from the tout services like Jim Feist.

I mentioned deep in Hayden's thread last night that I already took +7 on the Vikings at 5Dimes. They had 7 flat for several hours while other joints were 6.5 flat. Now there is juice on Minnesota at 5Dimes.

Those systems are a grind. They are designed to hit 55 or 58 out of 100, not to win a specific game. The Dolphins are not only a Crowd team, but now that they are .500 and giving -6 or higher at home, they also trigger that angle. I would be taking the points even with a Crap team like Jacksonville, as long as its +6 or above.

Always remember that is a home system, not road. On the road there can be too much disparity if the .500 team is favored by -6 or higher. You need the bonus adjustment points from the home team that isn't very good to begin with.

The theory behind Crowd vs. Crowd or similar angles is that mediocre teams aren't worthy of big favoritism. Sure there may be differences between the Dolphins and Vikings but in that mid level category the spread generally assigns a higher and more rigid gap than is really there. Parity shouldn't carry a high price tag.

As always, nothing is perfect. The Vikings use a rookie quarterback, and rookie quarterbacks often don't put up many points. At one stage I had tons of disqualifying angles but now I prefer to rely on the foundational ones.

I still root for the Dolphins even when I bet the opponent. Obviously if the opportunity is there for Miami to win but the Vikings to cover, I hope that happens.

BTW, I am also betting against the Canes in the bowl game against South Carolina. Somehow Miami is a 3 point favorite. That triggers one of my absolute favorite systems, taking a bowl game underdog that was rated higher in preseason. South Carolina was rated #9 while the Canes were nowhere.

That system fits my belief that everything tends to drift back to the beginning.

Not really a sports better but isn't there usually a 10% vig and if you are winning at 55 - 58% clip, how do you get around it?

 

[Fin Fan in Cali]

I thought is was going to be by a hand clap.

 

[Fins1971]

Thanks for the confirmation awsi.
I also saw that Minnesota has played close games on the road recently. It should be a close one. I don't expect a dolphin blowout in this one. Went 3 for 3 last week with Pats, Seahawks and Cowboys and trying to keep my streak going.

 

[So Be]

BTW, I am also betting against the Canes in the bowl game against South Carolina. Somehow Miami is a 3 point favorite. That triggers one of my absolute favorite systems, taking a bowl game underdog that was rated higher in preseason. South Carolina was rated #9 while the Canes were nowhere.

That system fits my belief that everything tends to drift back to the beginning.

Canes in the "Duck Commander Who Gives A F Independence Bowl." How the once mighty have fallen in Miami.

 

[phinfan13]

We'll be favored by less by the end of the week. I'm thinking like by 5.5/5. When at home the line tends to move against the Dolphins as you get closer to the game. So if you're considering taking the Dolphins against the spread, bet on them late in the week.

 

[NBP81]

Not really a sports better but isn't there usually a 10% vig and if you are winning at 55 - 58% clip, how do you get around it?

With a 10% vig and a 55% win rate, betting a 100$ everytime would net you 4,50$ per bet in the long run...

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Not really a sports better but isn't there usually a 10% vig and if you are winning at 55 - 58% clip, how do you get around it?

Giving 11/10 on every game, the break even point is 52.38%.

Not difficult to compute. Take the percentage of losses if you win 52.38%. The leftover is 47.62%. Now multiply that 47.62 by 1.1, which is the amount you lose every time that team doesn't cover, giving -110. It equates to very slightly above 52.38% needed to break even.

Actually it's a common misconception, that the 11/10 means the bettor has to hit 60% or nearby to break even. My dad held the same view for years. I'd sometimes be in Miami for the holidays, rooting in my bowl wagers. I would be satisfied if I went let's say 16-12, but he'd be chiding me for losing so many and ending up behind. When I tried to explain the math to him he didn't want to believe it. I remember one stretch I went 7-3 and he asked me if that were enough to break even. Unbelievable.

Dad was in the navy and his one gambling experience was losing his entire month's pay in a card game run by sharks. He told that story hundreds of times throughout the remainder of his life. Consequently he didn't believe it was possible to win. Not until he visited Las Vegas with my mom in maybe 2001 and I took him on my daily exhaustive route did he begin to understand the fundamentals, that it was all about math and anticipation and playing one number off of another, as opposed to merely picking the pointspread winner.

These days since I'm no longer in Las Vegas full time I don't get a chance to play as many middles or scalps (arbitrage). Those are the aspects that really explode the bankroll when everything falls your way. I also don't receive as many free half point promotions. But there are guys in that town who still help me. I don't want to go into full detail. They use my systems and they do the legwork chasing bets. These days it's much easier than decades ago to give -108 or even -105 on a game instead of -110 every time. That shifts the break even point.

 

[Fins1971]

I like taking the money line bets with the underdog when the right situation presents itself. Not an every week bet.
But I did take kc over patriots earlier in the year at +125 and Dallas over philly last week at +155
Hitting those can really help your bankroll. Got to be real picky though

 

[Hayden Fox]

I love the Vikes this week. Little Teddy Brigdgewater coming home. The Vikes has a coach their team knows will be back and will be playing hard. Norv will have Coyle for lunch. They have a nice pass rush. In the end, the Vikes are just playing better.

 

[HarryBagpipe]

Giving 11/10 on every game, the break even point is 52.38%.

Not difficult to compute. Take the percentage of losses if you win 52.38%. The leftover is 47.62%. Now multiply that 47.62 by 1.1, which is the amount you lose every time that team doesn't cover, giving -110. It equates to very slightly above 52.38% needed to break even.

Actually it's a common misconception, that the 11/10 means the bettor has to hit 60% or nearby to break even. My dad held the same view for years. I'd sometimes be in Miami for the holidays, rooting in my bowl wagers. I would be satisfied if I went let's say 16-12, but he'd be chiding me for losing so many and ending up behind. When I tried to explain the math to him he didn't want to believe it. I remember one stretch I went 7-3 and he asked me if that were enough to break even. Unbelievable.

Dad was in the navy and his one gambling experience was losing his entire month's pay in a card game run by sharks. He told that story hundreds of times throughout the remainder of his life. Consequently he didn't believe it was possible to win. Not until he visited Las Vegas with my mom in maybe 2001 and I took him on my daily exhaustive route did he begin to understand the fundamentals, that it was all about math and anticipation and playing one number off of another, as opposed to merely picking the pointspread winner.

These days since I'm no longer in Las Vegas full time I don't get a chance to play as many middles or scalps (arbitrage). Those are the aspects that really explode the bankroll when everything falls your way. I also don't receive as many free half point promotions. But there are guys in that town who still help me. I don't want to go into full detail. They use my systems and they do the legwork chasing bets. These days it's much easier than decades ago to give -108 or even -105 on a game instead of -110 every time. That shifts the break even point.

Gotcha. Never bothered doing the math but always thought the break even point was somewhere around mid 50's maybe even higher. Didn't think it was that low.

 

[Fins1971]

Me neither, I thought it was higher. Got my 1st math lesson this morning.