Dolphins Getting 4.5 Point vs Pats | Page 3 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Dolphins Getting 4.5 Point vs Pats

If the game was being played in Foxborough... The line should be Fins plus 10.5 points.. (6 point swing for home field)

It wouldn't be 10.5. Double digit underdog status is reserved for lousy teams. Believe it or not, the spread in Foxborough would be +7 or +7.5. I know that seemingly doesn't jive with +4.5 at home but there are exceptions to the home field switch from site to site. Top teams that very seldom lose are given quite a bit of benefit of a doubt on the road. Wise guys and public bettors alike look for bargains on those teams, namely -3 or lower on the road. The oddsmakers realize that and consequently the spread is jacked up on the road compared to the power rating differential, particularly if the home team doesn't have a strong home history. The recent Dolphins do not, hence the seemingly high number.

On the road the opposite is true. The Dolphins are considered strong enough not to be given a bounty of points so the wise guys would keep it down, barely over a touchdown.

Besides, the home field value is not a full 3 points. It's more like 2.7 on average in the NFL. So from site to site the variance is more like 5.5 points, not 6, if everything else is equal.
 
I love these gambling threads. I don't think we have had early Sept. games at home at 1pm for quite a while. If I was back in Vegas I would do a two team 7 point teaser with Miami getting 11.5 then take Minnesota +11. Both picks have to win, push loses, and you have to lay -130 to win 100. Seems like easy money to me but they always do.
 
Sounds about right. They averaged 8 more points per game last year than we did...throw in a 3 point home field advantage and we are still 5 points away from their last years per game average.

We have averaged 20 points per game once in the last 4-5 years.....they have consistently been in the high 20's and 30's

Until we can increase ppg or decrease points given up consistently we will be middle of the road.

Would LOVE to see us hold teams to a 15 ppg average .....we would be instant contenders...DEFENSE STILL wins championships...ask the broncos
 
Can anyone tell me Miami's record against winning teams at home for 2013-2014?
.

We went 3-1 at home against teams that finished with winning records.

Beat Patriots, Bengals and Chargers lost to Panthers

That is not the problem. It's losing at home to teams with losing or 500 records.

3 home losses to Bills (6-10), Jets and Ravens (both 8-8)
 
Miami was 5-3 against the spread at home last year. Maybe Vegas has it wrong.

That's interesting. Hasn't Miami been terrible against the spread over the past 15-20 years at home?
 
I would rather bet the money line for the Fins to win this one. I figure if they hang within 4, they will probably win. Just my $.02.
 
I love these gambling threads. I don't think we have had early Sept. games at home at 1pm for quite a while. If I was back in Vegas I would do a two team 7 point teaser with Miami getting 11.5 then take Minnesota +11. Both picks have to win, push loses, and you have to lay -130 to win 100. Seems like easy money to me but they always do.

That is wrong, by Las Vegas rules. A push in a two-team teaser is No Action,. i.e. a refund. The outcome of the second game does not matter. Once there is a push the bet is refunded.

They do it that way to balance the situation, since bettors are annoyed that a push with a win does not earn some type of minimal profit. To offset that, a push with a loss also became a refund.

Don't make the mistake so many people make, and fail to understand the occasionally varying differences in rules between Nevada sportsbooks and offshore outfits. The offshore joints, more often than not, treat a teaser push as a loss. There are some exceptions. For example, 5Dimes allows the bettor to set up his account for "Las Vegas Rules" in regard to teasers.

See this link and scroll down for those details: http://www.5dimes.eu/sb_wagertypes.html

There's no telling how much money has been mistakenly thrown away by bettors who don't understand that teaser rule. I've found many tickets myself.

The reason I know the rule is that I was incredibly fortunate in my first basketball teaser bet ever. It was a stupid wager in late 1984. I was new to town and didn't know what the heck I was doing in basketball betting. I was bored and instead of waiting for my football bets the next day I tried to steal a cheap $500 on a 5 point basketball teaser. The Celtics were playing at Indiana, and 8 point favorites. How could they lose to the lowly Pacers? I teased it down to -3. Boston was never in the game. My second leg was San Diego State at New Mexico. I teased up from +4 to +9. At least I knew the rule, that I needed San Diego State to lose by exactly 9 to salvage the $600 (-120 odds so $600 to win $500). New Mexico buried the Aztecs from the outset. It was at least a 25 point margin. Keep in mind this was prior to the 3 point shot. I didn't give up completely but it looked bleak. I continued to call the Las Vegas score phone number as the game tightened. Then I got a late score, with San Diego State down by only 5. Those idiots, they cut it too much. Within seconds the score phone provided the final. Nine point game! I believe it was 84-75. What a gift.

The next day I walked into Gary Austin's sportsbook, where I had made the wager. These were still the days of hand graded tickets. My ticket was not in the pile at the cashier to be paid. It has been discarded as a loss, since the guy grading it overnight looked at the first game on the teaser, the Celtic result. But since I had my copy the manager took the ticket and saw the San Diego State result. He graded the ticket as a push and looked quite annoyed while refunding my 600 bucks.
 
Miami was 5-3 against the spread at home last year. Maybe Vegas has it wrong.

5-3 in one season is trivial. Nobody is going to adjust based on 5-3. Sun Life has a long history of poor home results and money showing for the visitor. That's why this spread opened above a field goal and has been pushed higher. New England draws money early in the season. So it's a combination of factors moving in the same direction, bettors who have succeeded betting against the Dolphins at home and bettors who have succeeded taking New England early, especially on the road.

The adjustments here may be correct and Miami could be considerably improved under Lazor's offense. The bettors aren't going to assume as much without seeing it. Repeatedly.

Two decades ago I was actually blamed for pushing road favorites higher in early season NFL and NBA. I was on the Stardust radio show and gave out lots of data on top teams establishing a position early in the year toward playoff and home field status. Later in the season those teams are more secure and can slack off. I don't think I had much to do with it but I still hear about it occasionally from friends who remember those programs. They claim the early -2.5 and -3 on the road suddenly became -3.5 or -4. At that point the head oddsmaker was overly tilted toward home underdogs and gave them too much credit. It was naturally going to change once someone with a more balanced perspective took over. Regardless, there's no question I should have shut up. You want to sound like you know what you are talking about but it's unnecessary ammunition for the opponent.
 
I'm gonna wait to see which way the line moves this week. If there is heavy movement towards the Dolphins I predict a few of the controversial calls from the refs will go our way...

This is what happened for our last match up and we actually did get a call or two that game.
Anyone got Mulder or Scully's number?? Sounds like a job for them.
 
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