AFC East
New England Patriots: 11-5 (10.6 mean wins, SOS: 25)
Miami Dolphins: 11-5 (10.6 mean wins; SOS: 22)
Buffalo Bills: 8-8 (8.2 mean wins; SOS: 19)
New York Jets: 6-10 (5.8 mean wins; SOS: 20)
Your hot sleeper Super Bowl contender for 2015 is the Miami Dolphins. The Patriots run away with the AFC East year after year, but our early projections suggest the defending champions will finally get some serious competition in their own division this year.
We're high on the 2015 Dolphins because the 2014 Dolphins were essentially a good team dragged down to 8-8 by dismal special teams (last in the Football Outsiders efficiency ratings) and a difficult schedule. However, special teams are less consistent from year to year than offense or defense, which means the Dolphins are likely to be a lot closer to average in that area in 2015. And like the rest of their division, the Dolphins also get an easier schedule this year, trading the NFC North and AFC West for the NFC East and AFC South.
Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins should challenge for the AFC East title this season. Chris Trotman/Getty Images
The Dolphins were pretty good on offense last year -- they ranked in our top 10 -- and average on defense. They did this despite having an above-average number of injuries on both sides of the ball. We don't expect Ryan Tannehill to take a leap to greatness, but the running game will still be strong (second in DVOA, behind only Seattle last season) and the Dolphins will now anchor their defense with perhaps the most important free agent of the offseason, Ndamukong Suh ...
... unless, of course, the most important free agent of the offseason was Darrelle Revis. It's hard not to forecast some decline for the Patriots' defense with Revis gone; he was a big part of why the Patriots improved from 20th in defensive DVOA in 2013 to 12th in 2014. New England also got through last season with fewer injuries than most teams; the Patriots are usually one of the league leaders in our adjusted games lost stat, so it's hard to foresee them staying as healthy again in 2015.
The offense will still be strong, and the Pats are the rare team to show consistency in special teams. They've been in the top eight of Football Outsiders' special teams ratings in eight of the past nine years, including fifth last year. Those two parts of the game are enough to keep the Patriots slightly ahead of the Dolphins in their total DVOA projection, which is why McShay's mock draft had the Dolphins picking 29th as if they were to lose the AFC Championship Game in Foxborough. But the gap between the teams is close enough that if Tom Brady were to be suspended for multiple games due to Deflategate, we would have to slightly favor the Dolphins as AFC East champions.
The Bills last year had a bad offense and a great, underrated defense. Now that Rex Ryan is in charge, they are likely to have a bad offense and a great, properly rated defense. As for Ryan's old squad, we do forecast that the return of Revis will help raise the Jets' defense back to average, but the front seven is unlikely to stay as healthy as it did a year ago. And it is hard to forecast a lot of scoring from the Jets when the quarterbacks are still subpar and veteran receiver additions (such as Brandon Marshall) don't have a strong history of turning around bad offenses.
