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But we are unlikely to sign him anyway. If you’re going to maximize what value he has to offer, that would be the second half of the season and the post season.

If he gets hurt in the first of the season, he’ll be making peanuts next year, on a one year deal.

Banking on for 17 games is not something I would plan to do. Especially with Chop Robinson already on the roster.
You've been going with this theory for awhile now and I’m still not seeing anything you’re saying that makes sense.

And in this post, you really completely counter yourself in the very first sentence.

If YOU actually believe we are unlikely to sign him, then you ABSOLUTELY play the odds of getting the most snaps you can if he’s medically cleared.

I suppose I could see your original point on this before - not that anyone agreed with it, but I understood it… but that first sentence admitting you don’t think we’re gonna resign him? I’m not sure how you’re rationalizing any of this in your head and it makes me question WTF you’re talking about
 
You've been going with this theory for awhile now and I’m still not seeing anything you’re saying that makes sense.

And in this post, you really completely counter yourself in the very first sentence.

If YOU actually believe we are unlikely to sign him, then you ABSOLUTELY play the odds of getting the most snaps you can if he’s medically cleared.

I suppose I could see your original point on this before - not that anyone agreed with it, but I understood it… but that first sentence admitting you don’t think we’re gonna resign him? I’m not sure how you’re rationalizing any of this in your head and it makes me question WTF you’re talking about

I think it’s unlikely he’s re-signed if he plays week 1, because I think it’s unlikely he finishes the season healthy. At best he’s looking at a series of one year deals.

The further he gets away from his injuries without further injury, the better it will be for him long term. Two extra months of rehabbing for a guys who been doing nothing but rehabbing is a worthwhile sacrifice IMO.

I’d rather increase the likelihood that he’s available in the post season.

If you feel confident he’s going to play 17 games, great, I’m not remotely confident. I am confident the team can make the playoffs with Tua playing most of the year.

I love the kid’s physical abilities and I’d like to see our most talented defender available to us when we might have to face Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes in the post season.

I’m not sure what’s so hard to understand about that. The dude got hurt 3 different times in 2023, I believe the back injury actually happened before the season even started.

The first half of the schedule is also easier than the second half schedule, so again, I’d rather increases my odds of having him for meaningful games.

You do you though.
 
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I think it’s unlikely he’s re-signed if he plays week 1, because I think it’s unlikely he finishes the season healthy. At best he’s looking at a series of one year deals.

The further he gets away from his injuries without further injury, the better it will be for him long term. Two extra months of rehabbing for a guys who been doing nothing but rehabbing is a worthwhile sacrifice IMO.

I’d rather increase the likelihood that he’s available in the post season.

If you feel confident he’s going to play 17 games, great, I’m not remotely confident. I am confident the team can make the playoffs with Tua playing most of the year.

I love the kid’s physical abilities and I’d like to see our most talented defender available to us when we might have to face Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes in the post season.

I’m not sure what’s so hard to understand about that. The dude got hurt 3 different times in 2023, I believe the back injury actually happened before the season even started.

The first half of the schedule is also easier than the second half schedule, so again, I’d rather increases my odds of having him for meaningful games.

You do you though

Well like 20 people have already argued this point, but I’ll try…

You work off the assumption that he’s GAURANTEED to get injured. Or all but guaranteed, anyways.

While the reality is we have to work off the best data we have more than our assumptions… of course you’re right - injury prone players are more likely to get injured than not injury prone players - I 100% agree with you.

But the data we have is IF AND WHEN he is 100% medically cleared then he is healthy enough to play. Your theory of holding him just to hold him is working off your “hunch” which is backed up by… just your opinion based on really nothing of substance.

The other argument would be the type of injuries he had were bad luck, I guess. And that “injury prone” guys are more likely to be continually banged up (a la Armstead) than to tear an ACL or something.

either way… if you don’t expect them to resign him? You roll the dice and you play him when he’s cleared,
 
Well like 20 people have already argued this point, but I’ll try…

You work off the assumption that he’s GAURANTEED to get injured. Or all but guaranteed, anyways.

While the reality is we have to work off the best data we have more than our assumptions… of course you’re right - injury prone players are more likely to get injured than not injury prone players - I 100% agree with you.

But the data we have is IF AND WHEN he is 100% medically cleared then he is healthy enough to play. Your theory of holding him just to hold him is working off your “hunch” which is backed up by… just your opinion based on really nothing of substance.

The other argument would be the type of injuries he had were bad luck, I guess. And that “injury prone” guys are more likely to be continually banged up (a la Armstead) than to tear an ACL or something.

either way… if you don’t expect them to resign him? You roll the dice and you play him when he’s cleared,

Thats the thing, I am not trying to roll the dice. I'm trying to increase the likelihood he plays when it matters most.

You can chalk up the achilles to bad luck, when you follow that up with a torn ACL, it becomes a trend. A year ago this guy had two different size calf muscles its not surprising he had another lower extremity problem.

Can you honestly tell me you don't think two extra months of training/rehabbing wouldn't be beneficial to this guy? I want this kid to play in the playoffs, can you honestly tell me you think that would be likely if he started week 1? Would you bet on that?

I am confident this team can make the playoffs without him, provided Tua is on the field. And if he isn't, then the whole conversation is essentially pointless.

The last playoff game we played, Phillips, Chubb and Van Ginkel were all out. There is very little chance we are taking down KC or Baltimore in January without Jaelen Phillips.

However, in the first 7 weeks of the season, we only really have a week 2 game at Buffalo which should be difficult. The Chargers we have at home for a 1 p.m. start time. The schedule starts to get tough week 9 with the TNF game against Baltimore. A great game for him to make his debut, as we have 10 days before we host Buffalo. Then head to Spain for the Commanders followed by the bye week.

I don't want to rush him back, end of story.
 
Best wishes sir. I hope you have a all-star season.

Even then I still don't think I could justify re-signing him to a market deal though. Collect the 3rd rounder and wish him a fantastic rest of his career.
 
Best wishes sir. I hope you have a all-star season.

Even then I still don't think I could justify re-signing him to a market deal though. Collect the 3rd rounder and wish him a fantastic rest of his career.

He won’t get a market deal with his injury history, but if he plays to his pre injury level he is by far our best defensive player so I hope we can keep him around. Think he’ll have no long term injury issues because he’s such a genetic freak, think this was a blip on the radar for him.

Hope he gives us a hometown discount considering all the injury issues but we shall see. Don’t agree that Phillips is a guy you let walk for a 3rd round comp pick, he’s far more valuable than that.
 
Well not sure how much longer Jonnu will be here but for what’s it worth PFF ranked tight ends:

12. JONNU SMITH, MIAMI DOLPHINS

After moving around the NFL over the past five years, Smith found a home in Miami in 2024. He posted a career-high 84.0 PFF receiving grade and caught a career-high 88 passes for 886 yards and eight touchdowns. If the Dolphins can avoid the injury bug in 2025, Smith should enjoy another top-tier season.

 
He won’t get a market deal with his injury history, but if he plays to his pre injury level he is by far our best defensive player so I hope we can keep him around. Think he’ll have no long term injury issues because he’s such a genetic freak, think this was a blip on the radar for him.

Hope he gives us a hometown discount considering all the injury issues but we shall see. Don’t agree that Phillips is a guy you let walk for a 3rd round comp pick, he’s far more valuable than that.
I don't know. I am a bit of a pessimist when it comes to guys with multiple concussions, blown out knees, and ruptured achilles.

If he plays lights out and wants the money (who wouldn't) I think I would let somebody else take the risk and legitimately wish him the best.
 
Mike Sando of the Athletics favorite offseason move for each team, here’s the AFC starting with Fins:

Miami Dolphins

Doubling up on guard acquisitions with veteran James Daniels and second-round draft choice Jonah Savaiinaea could deliver two immediate starters at a position where Miami needed to get better. Daniels suffered a torn Achilles tendon last season, so the risk could be heightened, but with the injury occurring in September, he could be ready for training camp. Daniels, who turns 28 in September, played 3,086 snaps at right guard over the 2021-23 seasons, fourth most in the NFL, per TruMedia.

Baltimore Ravens

Re-signing Ronnie Stanley before free agency spared the Ravens from suddenly needing a left tackle in an offseason when there weren’t great options at the position. This made it easier for them to use their first-round pick (No. 27) for safety Malaki Starks instead of chasing a tackle, which Kansas City felt compelled to do at No. 31 (Josh Simmons, coming off injury, was the Chiefs’ pick there).

Buffalo Bills

Keeping quarterback Josh Allen happy on an extension worth $55 million per year, well below the $60 million threshold set by Dak Prescott, affirmed that the relationship between the team and its franchise quarterback remains strong. Buffalo was under no obligation to redo a deal that had four years remaining, but in a market where keeping superstars comes with some additional challenges, the Bills’ thinking appeared proactive. Allen is everything for Buffalo.

Cincinnati Bengals

Re-signing superstar receiver Ja’Marr Chase had to be done, but there were no guarantees the negotiations would play out smoothly for the Bengals. Cincy took the receiver market from $35 million per year (Justin Jefferson) to $40.25 million (Chase), keeping quarterback Joe Burrow and Chase himself happy. That was important.

Cleveland Browns

Adding a 2026 first-round pick from Jacksonville in exchange for dropping from No. 2 to No. 5 in the draft stands out for Cleveland. Though the Browns could regret passing up Travis Hunter, the draft capital could help them land a quarterback in the future, which could be a top priority even after the team used third- and fifth-round picks on the position this year.

Denver Broncos

Hiring Darren Rizzi as special teams coach rounds out a staff featuring Sean Payton as de facto offensive coordinator and Vance Joseph as defensive coordinator. That’s a solid triumvirate of proven coaches in three key roles. Rizzi worked under Payton in New Orleans from 2019-21 and stayed in the role through last season, so the fit should be natural. The Saints ranked 12th in special teams EPA during Rizzi’s tenure there (2019-24), including fourth on punts, punt returns, kickoffs and kickoff returns, per TruMedia.

Houston Texans

Remaking the receiver position by acquiring Christian Kirk and using two early picks for Jayden Higgins (second round) and Jaylin Noel (third) bought hope for the Texans after they subtracted Stefon Diggs and lost Tank Dell to injury. Those new receivers aren’t going to help the pass protection, which remains a concern, but if quarterback C.J. Stroud can get the ball out of his hands quickly, Houston has some players who might catch it.

Indianapolis Colts

Before owner Jim Irsay passed, he authorized an unusual (for the Colts) free-agent spending spree, helping Indy address its secondary with safety Cam Bynum and cornerback Charvarius Ward. The financial green light gave new defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo a better chance against a schedule featuring games against offensive callers Mike McDaniel, Sean Payton, Sean McVay, Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan.

Jacksonville Jaguars

There’s no way to know whether Liam Coen is going to be a good head coach; his credentials are thin. I liked the way Jacksonville broke its pattern of pivoting with each hire. The team had gone from to nice-guy Gus Bradley to the intense Doug Marrone and a brief stint with the intense Urban Meyer to nice-guy Doug Pederson with its previous hires. There was no pivot to a taskmaster this time. Coen, like Pederson, comes from the offensive side of the ball and would seem to be a player-friendly coach.

Kansas City Chiefs

I’m betting on defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo maximizing the top two cornerbacks Kansas City added: veteran Kristian Fulton, who played well for the Chargers last season, and third-round pick Nohl Williams, who can play nickel and safety. Both project as physical pieces for Spagnuolo to utilize. They are surer bets than the players Kansas City added to address its issues at left tackle.

Las Vegas Raiders

No team upgraded at the two most important positions — head coach and quarterback — more than the Raiders this offseason. The jumps from Antonio Pierce to Pete Carroll and from Aidan O’Connell to Geno Smith could allow Las Vegas to more than double its win total following a 4-13 season.

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers seemingly could have done more this offseason, but one of their biggest additions should help them build on their physical identity under second-year coach Jim Harbaugh. Free-agent addition Mekhi Becton, all 6-foot-7 and 363 pounds of him, slots in at right guard next to the similarly massive tackle Joe Alt. It’ll be fun to see those two giants aligned next to one another (unless you’re a defensive lineman).

New England Patriots

Hiring Mike Vrabel as head coach and Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator was a strong 1-2 punch for New England. McDaniels could be the best coordinator in the league who isn’t likely to become a head coach elsewhere. Having those two positions secured gives the Patriots a chance to implement a coherent vision for the long term.

New York Jets

Ending the Aaron Rodgers insanity while continuing to draft for the offensive line — which now features three first-round picks, including both tackles, and a second-rounder — gives the Jets a chance to build something for the longer term. I wasn’t a huge fan of paying Justin Fields what the Jets paid him, but another season with Rodgers would have felt untenable. There’s a fresh start in Florham Park, and that’s a good thing.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Getting a 2026 third-round pick and a 2027 fifth from Dallas for receiver George Pickens and a 2027 sixth might have been the Steelers’ best move, especially after DK Metcalf’s arrival signaled the end for Pickens in Pittsburgh. There hasn’t been much to like about this Steelers offseason from a quarterback standpoint, no matter what happens with Rodgers. Acquiring and paying Metcalf didn’t seem like the most logical move, either. But Pickens had to go, so getting decent value was a win for Pittsburgh.

Tennessee Titans

Tennessee selected the consensus top quarterback in the draft, Cam Ward, who will almost certainly upgrade the most important position. That move carries more upside than any other the Titans made (13 of 19 QBs taken No. 1 in the salary-cap era received long-term extensions from their original teams, with Ward, Caleb Williams and Bryce Young not yet eligible).
 
PFFs most improved players projection for each position, Jaylen Wright was the RB chosen.

RUNNING BACK: JAYLEN WRIGHT, MIAMI DOLPHINS

There was little confusion with the Dolphins’ reasoning behind drafting Wright in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Wright has what the Dolphins covet: speed. And he has a lot of it. However, opportunities were limited for Wright in his rookie season. He carried the ball just 68 times for 249 yards, averaging a meagre 3.7 yards per attempt and earning a 65.3 grade. Wright had just 71 total touches, with De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert earning 281 and 104 touches, respectively.

Wright won’t be usurping Achane as the lead running back in the Dolphins' offense. Achane’s 91.3 grade since 2023 is the third-highest among running backs, but Wright will earn more carries in 2025. Mostert left to join the Las Vegas Raiders in free agency, and though the Dolphins signed Alexander Mattison in free agency, he presents himself more as a short-yardage back – something the Dolphins have needed in the past – and averaged just 3.2 yards per attempt in 2024.

An improved interior offensive line factors into Wright’s predicted improvement, too. The Dolphins signed James Daniels in free agency and drafted Jonah Savaiinaea in the second round of the 2025 NFL Draft, and their presence inside could open up more holes to be exploited between the tackles. Wright will get ample time to flash his talent in 2025, and there’s reason to believe he’ll deliver.

 
Well not sure how much longer Jonnu will be here but for what’s it worth PFF ranked tight ends:

12. JONNU SMITH, MIAMI DOLPHINS

After moving around the NFL over the past five years, Smith found a home in Miami in 2024. He posted a career-high 84.0 PFF receiving grade and caught a career-high 88 passes for 886 yards and eight touchdowns. If the Dolphins can avoid the injury bug in 2025, Smith should enjoy another top-tier season.


Underrated on that list Tucker Kraft overrated on that list Trey McBride
 
He won’t get a market deal with his injury history, but if he plays to his pre injury level he is by far our best defensive player so I hope we can keep him around. Think he’ll have no long term injury issues because he’s such a genetic freak, think this was a blip on the radar for him.

Hope he gives us a hometown discount considering all the injury issues but we shall see. Don’t agree that Phillips is a guy you let walk for a 3rd round comp pick, he’s far more valuable than that.

I don’t know that I can call back to back years with serious season ending injuries a blip on the radar.

If it happens again this year Miami has to move on. Or sign him to a one year compete deal at best.
 
I don’t know that I can call back to back years with serious season ending injuries a blip on the radar.

If it happens again this year Miami has to move on. Or sign him to a one year compete deal at best.
I don’t think you can for 99 percent of athletes but I think he’s in the 1 percent that can come back and be as good as he was pre injury…that guy was on a top 5 edge rusher trajectory which I think he would’ve been by now with no injuries and still can be even after.

Like Dave Puloka said the guy is built different.

Agree though if he gets hurts again this year he’s gotta go or one year deal max. If he gets thru the season healthy I think we can sign him at a discount and get top 10 value without paying top 10 money, maybe like we did with Jackson and sign him for a discount before he hits the market.
 
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