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Dolphins Palyoff Picture as of Week 15 Heading into Week 16

PASQUALE

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Two to go. Incredible story, for our beloved Miami Dolphins....winners again and are now 9-5!! I predicted a 10-6 season back in August we're almost there and we will be better 11-5!! Anyway here you go.




The Miami Dolphins continued successfully on their quest for the playoffs by outlasting the San Francisco 49ers, 14-9. The Pittsburgh Steelers also chipped in a tad to help the Dolphins in the wild-card race by downing the Baltimore Ravens, 13-9.

DIVISION
Within the division, the Dolphins, Jets, and Patriots are still in the hunt for the divisional title, though only the Dolphins and Jets control their destiny; if the Dolphins win their last two games, they will be the AFC East Champions. The Dolphins would eliminate the Jets via superior overall record; nothing the Pats can do will change this (not even winning out) as the Dolphins would eliminate the Pats via superior conference record.

The Dolphins can also win the division title if the Dolphins, Jets, and Pats finish tied with 10-6 (or 10-5-1) records, and the Dolphins defeat the Jets. The Dolphins would win the division based on their common games tiebreaker over the Jets and their strength of victory tiebreaker advantage over the Pats.

Aside from winning out, the Jets can win the division if the Dolphins, Jets, and Pats finish tied with 10-6 (or 10-5-1) records and the Jets defeat the Dolphins. The Jets would eliminate the Dolphins on the head-to-head tiebreaker, and the Pats on superior divisional record.

The only way the Patriots can win the division is if they win out and the Dolphins and Jets both lose or tie at least one game. If the Dolphins and Jets win next week, the Pats would be all but mathematically eliminated from the divisional race (the Pats would need the Dolphins and Jets to tie their final game, and they would need to defeat the Cardinals at home and the Bills on the road).

If the Miami Dolphins win the AFC East, they would host a first round playoff game the weekend of January 3-4 as the third seed by virtue of their head-to-head advantage over the 8-6 Denver Broncos (guaranteed yesterday when Denver lost to the Carolina Panthers) or the San Diego Chargers (if the Broncos lose their last two).

WILD-CARD
The Dolphins are still a big long shot to earn a wild-card berth, though the odds improved slightly when Baltimore lost to the Steelers.

Even though the 9-5 Ravens lost, they would still qualify for a wild-card berth if the season ended today as they hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Dolphins and a strength of victory tiebreaker over the Patriots.

The Colts (10-4) avoided infamy (or preserved it!) by defeating the Lions.

Assuming the Colts defeat the Jaguars this Thursday, there are two remaining scenarios whereby a 10-6 Dolphins team could win a wild-card berth:

a) If the Dolphins defeat the Chiefs but lose to the Jets, the Ravens would have to lose their final two games (or have a loss and a tie) and the Patriots would have to lose their final game at Buffalo, or

b) If the Dolphins lose to the Chiefs but defeat the Jets, the Ravens would have to lose their final two games (or have a loss and a tie) and the Patriots would have to win their final two games, or have a win and a tie; in this event, the Pats would be AFC East champions and the Dolphins would eliminate the Jets via the Common Games tiebreaker.

The Ravens and Colts can eliminate the Dolphins from wild-card contention by winning this week (@ DAL and @JAX, respectively). The Colts will clinch the first wild-card berth with a win over the Jaguars; this would leave only the Ravens and Pats in the running for the final wild-card berth (assuming the Ravens defeat the Cowboys at Texas Stadium, and the Pats defeat the Cardinals at Gillette).

The only way an 11-5 Patriots team could qualify for the wild-card in this event would be for the Ravens to lose or tie their final game at Jacksonville. If the Ravens and Pats finished tied at the end of the season, the Ravens would earn the final wild-card berth (strength of victory tiebreaker).

THIS WEEK (key games for the Dolphins)
Dolphins at Chiefs
Jets at Seahawks
Cardinals at Patriots
Ravens at Cowboys

Thanks,

Pasquale

GO DOLPHINS!!!
 
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