Dolphins' Performance in Last 3 Games Associated with 11.4 Regular Season Wins

[AFCMiamiEast]

shouright...stop trolling. You obviously get a kick out of all the responses (mine included). :err:

 

[greasyObnoxious]

How do you have 4 tenths of a win?

12th win in progress, status 40 %

 

[Shouright]

The disclaimer at the end of the original post is excellent. Could not have said it better.

:up:

 

[Calvin Clean]

Remember this for next year. A young team that is improving. I expect 11 or 12 wins next year.

 

[Shouright]

Apparently the equation on the webpage is based on net YPA, which takes into account sacks, not YPA, which does not.

Correcting for that difference drops the expected number of regular season wins based on the equation to 10.2.

Yards per pass attempt is merely pass yards divided by pass attempts. So we have a relatively weak statistic (0.31) divided by an even weaker one with a negative correlation with winning (-0.17). We would expect to have a fairly meaningless result, but we don't. Passing efficiency turns out to be strongly correlated with winning (0.61). And unless having a lead in a game ‘causes’ a team’s passes to be more successful, we can safely say that passing efficiency leads to winning.

Because sacks are an important factor in the passing game, I include plays that result in sacks as pass attempts for the purpose of calculating efficiency. Likewise, I also subtract sack yards from total passing yards. I call this true pass efficiency and have found it correlates better with both offensive points scored and wins.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2007/07/what-makes-teams-win-part-1.html

 

[Sirspud]

I could care less what the indicators are. We will lose the next two games if we play bad football, which no stat can prove that we won't.

 

[Shouright]

I could care less what the indicators are. We will lose the next two games if we play bad football, which no stat can prove that we won't.

True. There is no stat we know of that can foretell the future. :)

 

[ProStyle]

We were on pace for 18-0 a couple of months ago.

 

[Shouright]

We were on pace for 18-0 a couple of months ago.

Actually we could've tallied the stats from those three games (the 3-0 period), plugged them into the equation above, and come up with a much more realistic appraisal of how the team was playing, despite its perfect record at that point.