Dolphins should stay away from Supplemental Draft | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Dolphins should stay away from Supplemental Draft

Hudman

Hudman

Atlanta Ga Dolfan
Joined
May 16, 2007
Messages
245
Reaction score
0
Location
Atlanta, Ga
Intersting information on the success of supplemental draft player's success!
Manuel Wright might be an exception but it's still to early to call him a success.

I say we stay away!!!!:beer1:


http://phinfever.com/news.php

"4 successes out of 35 ... 11 percent.

Supplemental Draft Picks
Name Year Rnd Team Pos College
Al Hunter 1977 4 Seahawks RB Notre Dame
Johnnie Dirden 1978 10 Oilers WR Sam Houston State
Rod Connors 1978 12 49ers RB Southern California
Rod Stewart 1979 6 Bills RB Kentucky
Matthew Teague 1980 7 Falcons DE Prairie View A&M
Billy Mullins 1980 9 Chargers WR USC
Dave Wilson 1981 1 Saints QB Illinois
Chy Davidson 1981 11 Patriots WR Rhode Island
Kevin Robinson 1982 9 Lions DB North Carolina A&T
Bernie Kosar 1985 1 Browns QB Miami (FL)
Roosevelt Snipes 1985 8 49ers RB Florida State
Charles Crawford 1986 7 Eagles RB Oklahoma State
Brian Bosworth 1987 1 Seahawks LB Oklahoma
Cris Carter 1987 4 Eagles WR Ohio State
Dan Sileo 1987 3 Buccaneers DT Miami (FL)
Ryan Bethea 1988 5 Vikings WR South Carolina
Steve Walsh 1989 1 Cowboys QB Miami (FL)
Timm Rosenbach 1989 1 Cardinals QB Washington State
Bobby Humphrey 1989 1 Broncos RB Alabama
Mike Lowman 1989 12 Cowboys RB Coffeyville JC
Brett Young 1989 8 Bills DB Oregon
Rob Moore 1990 1 Jets WR Syracuse
Willie Williams 1990 9 Cardinals TE Louisiana State
Dave Brown 1992 1 Giants QB Duke
Darren Mickell 1992 2 Chiefs DE Florida
Tito Wooten 1994 4 Giants DB Louisiana-Monroe
John Davis 1994 5 Cowboys TE Emporia State
Darren Benson 1995 3 Cowboys DT Arkansas State
Mike Wahle 1998 2 Packers T Navy
Jamal Williams 1998 2 Chargers DT Oklahoma State
J'Juan Cherry 1999 4 Patriots DB Arizona State
Milford Brown 2002 6 Texans OL Florida State
Tony Hollings 2003 2 Texans RB Georgia Tech
Manuel Wright 2005 5 Dolphins DT USC
Ahmad Brooks 2006 3 Bengals LB Virginia"

Not very promising numbers:tantrum:
 
They missed Jamal Williams from the Chargers. IMO, he's the best 3-4 NT in the game, he turned out pretty well.
 
Hudman said:
Intersting information on the success of supplemental draft player's success!
Manuel Wright might be an exception but it's still to early to call him a success.
Click to expand...

You lost me at Manny Wright might be an exception...
The man/child had two seperate chances to make this team and failed both times due to being out of shape and mental problems.

You say it's to early to call him a success but

Can we call him a horrible bust and waste of a fifth round draft choice
since that is what he is!
 
Manuel Wright might be an exception but it's still to early to call him a success.
Click to expand...
A success? I'd call him an utter failure! Interesting though, I did not know Kosar and Carter were in supplementals.
 
I dont know the statics of this nor am I motivated to figure it out but I would be courious to know how many players in the draft actually make it past the cuts and what percentage make it per round they were drafted. I would then pose is 11% that bad? in comparison to the draft record in general across the nfl. Honestly I think you would find 11% is not that bad comparitivly speaking and would argue that the more draft picks you have the more your odds increase at finding a starter on your team and the later round players come in cheap and humble.
 
shula_guy said:
I dont know the statics of this nor am I motivated to figure it out but I would be courious to know how many players in the draft actually make it past the cuts and what percentage make it per round they were drafted. I would then pose is 11% that bad? in comparison to the draft record in general across the nfl. Honestly I think you would find 11% is not that bad comparitivly speaking and would argue that the more draft picks you have the more your odds increase at finding a starter on your team and the later round players come in cheap and humble.
Click to expand...

Very good point:) I had not hought of it like that. The other point is that most of these players in the supplemental draft have a reason for being there and not the regular draft......usually not good!!:tantrum:
 
Jamal is the best nose tackle in the game. The guy eats up blocks as if nothing. :err:
 
Gaither still would be a tremendous gamble . . . kid is potentially a first round talent. Hey that list has only 1 tackle . . . and he was successful in the NFL . . . so optimistically thinking . . . all tackles that enter the Supp draft have been a success so far . . . well that analysis is extreme . . . but if Miami didn't least put a 3rd round offer in for him, I would be upset by it (tho I don't know what kind of history the kid has, so I guess I would rather know WHY they didn't)
 
Good analysis. The supplementary draft is filled with players who were kicked off their team, academically ineligible and, in other words, higher risk types to begin with. Gaither is intriguing, but so was Manny Wright. There is also a DT from Utah who sounds like an interesting prospect. Overall, not much to get excited about.
 
I don't know about this thread's premise...The kinds of players available in the supplemental draft are changing...therefore I don't know if a historical look at success of supplemental picks is relevant.

Also, the quantity of supplemental picks is so small that I don't know if you can generalize trends about the players available.

Simply put,

evaluate Gaither, Oliver, etc on their own merits.
 
What about Bobby Humphrey? I know he had a short career but he had two great years and went to the Superbowl with the Broncos.
 
The reason most seem to be flops is that you are singling out one player a year in most cases. For any player there is a better than 50% chance they fail, so to go on a year to year basis with one player each you will have more failures than success.

The key is to find guys who can be a success that you believe in.
 
Hudman said:
Intersting information on the success of supplemental draft player's success!
Manuel Wright might be an exception but it's still to early to call him a success.

I say we stay away!!!!:beer1:


http://phinfever.com/news.php

"4 successes out of 35 ... 11 percent.

Supplemental Draft Picks
Name Year Rnd Team Pos College
Al Hunter 1977 4 Seahawks RB Notre Dame
Johnnie Dirden 1978 10 Oilers WR Sam Houston State
Rod Connors 1978 12 49ers RB Southern California
Rod Stewart 1979 6 Bills RB Kentucky
Matthew Teague 1980 7 Falcons DE Prairie View A&M
Billy Mullins 1980 9 Chargers WR USC
Dave Wilson 1981 1 Saints QB Illinois
Chy Davidson 1981 11 Patriots WR Rhode Island
Kevin Robinson 1982 9 Lions DB North Carolina A&T
Bernie Kosar 1985 1 Browns QB Miami (FL)
Roosevelt Snipes 1985 8 49ers RB Florida State
Charles Crawford 1986 7 Eagles RB Oklahoma State
Brian Bosworth 1987 1 Seahawks LB Oklahoma
Cris Carter 1987 4 Eagles WR Ohio State
Dan Sileo 1987 3 Buccaneers DT Miami (FL)
Ryan Bethea 1988 5 Vikings WR South Carolina
Steve Walsh 1989 1 Cowboys QB Miami (FL)
Timm Rosenbach 1989 1 Cardinals QB Washington State
Bobby Humphrey 1989 1 Broncos RB Alabama
Mike Lowman 1989 12 Cowboys RB Coffeyville JC
Brett Young 1989 8 Bills DB Oregon
Rob Moore 1990 1 Jets WR Syracuse
Willie Williams 1990 9 Cardinals TE Louisiana State
Dave Brown 1992 1 Giants QB Duke
Darren Mickell 1992 2 Chiefs DE Florida
Tito Wooten 1994 4 Giants DB Louisiana-Monroe
John Davis 1994 5 Cowboys TE Emporia State
Darren Benson 1995 3 Cowboys DT Arkansas State
Mike Wahle 1998 2 Packers T Navy
Jamal Williams 1998 2 Chargers DT Oklahoma State
J'Juan Cherry 1999 4 Patriots DB Arizona State
Milford Brown 2002 6 Texans OL Florida State
Tony Hollings 2003 2 Texans RB Georgia Tech
Manuel Wright 2005 5 Dolphins DT USC
Ahmad Brooks 2006 3 Bengals LB Virginia"

Not very promising numbers:tantrum:
Click to expand...


Bobby Humphrey certainly wasn't a bust and nor was Dave Brown. Was Brown a 1st rounder? No. But he was a serviceable pro for a decade. Timm Rosenbach looked like he had a bright future but for a ruptured disc in his back, whilst Steve Walsh was a decent pro. Jamal Williams is the best NT in football.
 
As Boomer rightly points out there are five to seven more guys on that list that succeeded even if they did not become stars. My read of that list would be a little below 1 in 3 were successful. That's below the overall average of the draft, I think, but not by much.

I've said in other threads on this, part of the problem is that a guy taken in the supplemental beomces the only story in the team's news cycle for two or three days and thus has a greater spotlight turned on him than a comparable player taken in the regular draft.

We make a big deal out of the failure of Manny Wright and some say we should avoid the supplemental draft all together. By that logic, Fred Evans' blow up should make us avoid the main draft as well.

Each case deserves to be judged on its own merits and we should do our due diligence with all of the players available.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom