Dolphins, The QB & The Draft --

[UncleJamFinFan]

I've been spending a lot of time in thought, along with the rest of you, about the pending draft and the Dolphins QB situation. After looking at the Senior Bowl, and hearing the Jay Cutler Hype, I wanted to look at things from a purely statistical standpoint. So what I did was look at the last 10 years of the NFL Draft and make some calculations based on what those years afforded -- Here's what I came up with. From 1996 to 2006, a total of 31 QB's were selected in either the 1st or 2nd rounds. Of those 31, only TWO have or will start for their team in the Super Bowl (Donovan McNabb & Ben Roethlisberger). That's 6%. Of those 31, being generous, there are 9 who I would argue are good starting QB's when not injured (Jake Plummer, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Mike Vick, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger). That's 29%. All that to say -- I hope the Dolphins don't trade away picks or move up for Cutler, as much as I would love to have him develop and be on board, there is value all over the draft board. In Nick I trust, but please keep your picks.

 

[Lappy]

I've been spending a lot of time in thought, along with the rest of you, about the pending draft and the Dolphins QB situation. After looking at the Senior Bowl, and hearing the Jay Cutler Hype, I wanted to look at things from a purely statistical standpoint. So what I did was look at the last 10 years of the NFL Draft and make some calculations based on what those years afforded -- Here's what I came up with. From 1996 to 2006, a total of 31 QB's were selected in either the 1st or 2nd rounds. Of those 31, only TWO have or will start for their team in the Super Bowl (Donovan McNabb & Ben Roethlisberger). That's 6%. Of those 31, being generous, there are 9 who I would argue are good starting QB's when not injured (Jake Plummer, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Mike Vick, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger). That's 29%. All that to say -- I hope the Dolphins don't trade away picks or move up for Cutler, as much as I would love to have him develop and be on board, there is value all over the draft board. In Nick I trust, but please keep your picks.

That's good info. I was wondering when someone would do the math on the situation. I'm starting to agree but me being me I could flip views in a heart beat. :wink:

 

[dolfn66]

Just out of curiousity, if Gus has a pro bowl like season this year, what would he be worth on the market?

 

[AZfinfan]

I've been spending a lot of time in thought, along with the rest of you, about the pending draft and the Dolphins QB situation. After looking at the Senior Bowl, and hearing the Jay Cutler Hype, I wanted to look at things from a purely statistical standpoint. So what I did was look at the last 10 years of the NFL Draft and make some calculations based on what those years afforded -- Here's what I came up with. From 1996 to 2006, a total of 31 QB's were selected in either the 1st or 2nd rounds. Of those 31, only TWO have or will start for their team in the Super Bowl (Donovan McNabb & Ben Roethlisberger). That's 6%. Of those 31, being generous, there are 9 who I would argue are good starting QB's when not injured (Jake Plummer, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Mike Vick, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger). That's 29%. All that to say -- I hope the Dolphins don't trade away picks or move up for Cutler, as much as I would love to have him develop and be on board, there is value all over the draft board. In Nick I trust, but please keep your picks.

One thing that you should consider is that qbs take 2-3 years to develop, so just because they aren't contributing now doesn't mean that they won't or aren't good qbs. The number might not look as bad if for example Alex Smith, Aaron Rodger, Jason Campbell and other start to contribute to their teams when they get the opportunity.

 

[nopony]

Just out of curiousity, if Gus has a pro bowl like season this year, what would he be worth on the market?

If Gus Ferotte has a pro-bowl like season this year, I will be too busy making money with my new Flying Pigs ranch to realize it.

Top ten list of things more likely than Gus Ferotte having a pro-bowl year next year:

10. Peace in the middle east.
9. Army infantry equipped with lightsabers.
8. Rob Schneider wins an oscar for Duece Bigalow, Thai Prostitute
7. Osama Bin Laden has brunch with Laura Bush
6. Dave Wannestadt wins a national title
5. Charlton Heston stars in Brokeback Mountain II
4. Florida runs an honest election
3. Smoking cigarettes cures cancer
2. A jewish pope.
1. Paris Hilton gets camera shy.

 

[dolfn66]

If Gus Ferotte has a pro-bowl like season this year, I will be too busy making money with my new Flying Pigs ranch to realize it.

Top ten list of things more likely than Gus Ferotte having a pro-bowl year next year:

10. Peace in the middle east.
9. Army infantry equipped with lightsabers.
8. Rob Schneider wins an oscar for Duece Bigalow, Thai Prostitute
7. Osama Bin Laden has brunch with Laura Bush
6. Dave Wannestadt wins a national title
5. Charlton Heston stars in Brokeback Mountain II
4. Florida runs an honest election
3. Smoking cigarettes cures cancer
2. A jewish pope.
1. Paris Hilton gets camera shy.

:sidelol: :sidelol: :sidelol:

 

[SoFloDolFan]

If Gus Ferotte has a pro-bowl like season this year, I will be too busy making money with my new Flying Pigs ranch to realize it.

Top ten list of things more likely than Gus Ferotte having a pro-bowl year next year:

10. Peace in the middle east.
9. Army infantry equipped with lightsabers.
8. Rob Schneider wins an oscar for Duece Bigalow, Thai Prostitute
7. Osama Bin Laden has brunch with Laura Bush
6. Dave Wannestadt wins a national title
5. Charlton Heston stars in Brokeback Mountain II
4. Florida runs an honest election
3. Smoking cigarettes cures cancer
2. A jewish pope.
1. Paris Hilton gets camera shy.

Hey I resent #4. It's not our fault that Mr. Bush was nominated into office. :boohoo:

 

[merlin00069]

I've been spending a lot of time in thought, along with the rest of you, about the pending draft and the Dolphins QB situation. After looking at the Senior Bowl, and hearing the Jay Cutler Hype, I wanted to look at things from a purely statistical standpoint. So what I did was look at the last 10 years of the NFL Draft and make some calculations based on what those years afforded -- Here's what I came up with. From 1996 to 2006, a total of 31 QB's were selected in either the 1st or 2nd rounds. Of those 31, only TWO have or will start for their team in the Super Bowl (Donovan McNabb & Ben Roethlisberger). That's 6%. Of those 31, being generous, there are 9 who I would argue are good starting QB's when not injured (Jake Plummer, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Mike Vick, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger). That's 29%. All that to say -- I hope the Dolphins don't trade away picks or move up for Cutler, as much as I would love to have him develop and be on board, there is value all over the draft board. In Nick I trust, but please keep your picks.

First off that stat is misleading...because if you go back to 1994 you can add 3 more guys who started superbowls...Dilfer in 1994 was a first rounder and in 1995 you had Collins and Mcnair...all three who went to superbowls. So factor in 2 more years and three more QB's. You can even count Kordell Stewart who was a second rounder and was in the superbowl. That stat was a convenience stat.

So lets continue on the path that we've been on shall we and perhaps recycle another QB and land in mediocrity for another 5-6 years. No thanks. We tried that route...we need to bring a young guy that Saban likes and coach him up and get him ready for the future. gus is perfect for us right now and will be great for 1-2 more years. Whoever Saban wants im fine with...but if he thinks Cutler is our guy...then do what it takes to get him. Look at it this way. Youre scared of losing draft picks over a QB right....well with the exception of last year our draft picks are ALWAYS in the 15-20 range because we've had an avg. football team for 6-7 years already so the picks arent going to be good anyway if we end up the same. I like what you said last though..trust in Saban...i do as well. If he wants Croyle...great bring him in...if he wants Leinart....fine trade up...whatever. I think Cutler is just more realistic and since he's an SEC guy you know Saban likes him.

 

[Argos31]

CUTLER is the answer, could be the best QB since Manning and Brady and has the skills to be even better if he develops very well. He has a rocket for an arm, has been forced to make decisions very quickly(crap Oline and gr8 Dlines in SEC) He was a leader on his team and he can also run pretty well. Do whatever it takes, he could be the Franchise.


We need to think of a nickname for Cutler
maybe the Franchise, the Great One /the Greatest, or Air Cutler?



PS how about Jay "the football fuhrer" Cutler?

 

[CitizenSnips]

Just out of curiousity, if Gus has a pro bowl like season this year, what would he be worth on the market?

a chicken sandwich

 

[adamprez2003]

If Gus Ferotte has a pro-bowl like season this year, I will be too busy making money with my new Flying Pigs ranch to realize it.

Top ten list of things more likely than Gus Ferotte having a pro-bowl year next year:

10. Peace in the middle east.
9. Army infantry equipped with lightsabers.
8. Rob Schneider wins an oscar for Duece Bigalow, Thai Prostitute
7. Osama Bin Laden has brunch with Laura Bush
6. Dave Wannestadt wins a national title
5. Charlton Heston stars in Brokeback Mountain II
4. Florida runs an honest election
3. Smoking cigarettes cures cancer
2. A jewish pope.
1. Paris Hilton gets camera shy.

 

[JoeRobStad4ever]

CUTLER is the answer, could be the best QB since Manning and Brady and has the skills to be even better if he develops very well. He has a rocket for an arm, has been forced to make decisions very quickly(crap Oline and gr8 Dlines in SEC) He was a leader on his team and he can also run pretty well. Do whatever it takes, he could be the Franchise.


We need to think of a nickname for Cutler
maybe the Franchise, the Great One /the Greatest, or Air Cutler?



PS how about Jay "the football fuhrer" Cutler?

whoa, i'm not ready to start coming up with nicknames for a guy who has the possibility of becoming a jet....especially nicknames like the great one. let's first have him on our team.

but i do think he is the way to go, but not at all costs. winston, the usc tackle would fill a huge position.

 

[nopony]

CUTLER is the answer, could be the best QB since Manning and Brady and has the skills to be even better if he develops very well.

What on earth? Did you follow this guy?

He has a rocket for an arm, has been forced to make decisions very quickly(crap Oline and gr8 Dlines in SEC) He was a leader on his team and he can also run pretty well. Do whatever it takes, he could be the Franchise.

Arm is the most overrated drafting quality there is. He has questionable accuracy and questionable decision making. Regardless of how bad his team was, the fact remains that he is a conditioned loser.

He is a series of question marks and you are ready to annoint him the next Brady??? he's not even close to the best quarterback in this draft, let alone Brady or Manning.

Talk about hype.

The kid may turn out great. Who knows? The point is that there is very little reason for anyone to be so sure about it.

We need to think of a nickname for Cutler
maybe the Franchise, the Great One /the Greatest, or Air Cutler?

:shakeno:

PS how about Jay "the football fuhrer" Cutler?

You have got to be freaking kidding me.

 

[finfansince72]

Theres always great risk when the rewards are greater. You pointed out some great players, Manning, Culpepper, McNabb, palmer, Rothlesberger, etc those guys are worth taking high in the draft or trading up to get. You could basically make the same arguement that youre making about Qbs for any position in the draft. Yea, a ton of 1st round Olinemen arent that good, 1st round Cb's can stink, 1st round Rbs can stink, etc, etc. Its not a reason to pass one up or give up on finding one.

 

[Danny]

I trust Nick to do what's best for our team.I think Cutler's gonna be gone before our pick but we'll draft a QB in the 2 to 4 rounds.I keep thinking is gonna be Whitehurst but we'll see.

Ozzy rules!!