When the Dolphins have the ball…
Miami passing (26th in NFL) vs. New England pass defense (14th)
Matt Moore continued his steady play last weekend against the Bills in place of injured Ryan Tannehill, helping to earn Miami’s first victory on the road at Buffalo since 2011. Moore completed 16 of 30 passes for 233 yards, two touchdowns and one interception, while DeVante Parker and Damien Williams each eclipsed 50 receiving yards on the day. The Dolphins have spread the ball out with Moore under center, with seven different Miami’s players making a catch Saturday. The Patriots pass defense has been solid this season and allowed only 136 yards on 8-of-24 passing against the Jets in Week 16. New England also forced three interceptions, bringing their defense’s season total to 12. If Moore can limit his mistakes, Miami will have an opportunity to move the ball against a Patriots defense that has surrendered over 250 passing yards seven times this season.
Edge: Miami
Miami rushing (9th) vs. New England rush defense (3rd)
Jay Ajayi is coming off his third 200-yard performance this season, but will face a much stiffer test at home this week against the Patriots. New England enters with the third best rush defense in the league, a ranking that has climbed over the past few weeks. When New England allowed 111 rushing yards to the Jets last Saturday, it snapped a streak of four games holding opponents to below 65 yards. The Patriots have only allowed more than 100 yards rushing twice since their bye in Week 9, signifying potential struggles for Ajayi and his running mates.
Edge: New England
When the Patriots have the ball…
New England passing (4th) vs Miami pass defense (13th)
Miami faces a familiar foe for the first time this season, as Tom Brady did not play in the teams’ Week 2 game while serving a four-game suspension. Since returning, Brady has played at an MVP level, throwing for 3,278 yards and 25 TDs in 11 games. He has only two interceptions in his 399 pass attempts. The Dolphins are third in the league in forcing interceptions, but will
be missing Isa Abdul-Quddus, who was placed on IR Wednesday with a neck injury. Though Miami’s pass defense has been respectable all season, it’s hard to imagine the unit keeping Brady in check, especially after allowing 317 passing yards to the Bills in Week 16.
Edge: New England
New England rushing (8th) vs Miami rush defense (30th)
The Dolphins haven’t stopped the run all season, and a 272-yard rushing performance by the Bills last week continued to shine a light on Miami’s most glaring deficiency. Things won’t be easier this week against 1,000-yard rusher LaGarrette Blount. Blount, who has rushed for 1,110 yards and 17 TDs on 285 carries, is coming off a 50 yard, two TD performance against the Jets and their stingy run defense. Dion Lewis also rushed for 52 yards last week, giving the Patriots two capable options out of the backfield. The Dolphins have allowed more than 100 yards rushing in 12 games this season, including their last six. That trend is likely to continue.
Edge: New England
