ckparrothead
Premium Member
I know I've posted sporatically, at best, in the Main Forum for the past several months For that, I apologize. If you want to see the every day brain splatter of those like KB21, Boomer, and myself, unfortunately nowadays you'll have to sign up for a VIP membership.
Issue #1: Daunte Culpepper
What a difference a year makes. Or rather, maybe I would prefer the platitude: what was true a year ago, may not be true today.
Last year the Daunte Culpepper acquisition made a lot of sense to me. He is a physically gifted quarterback. The Dolphins ran an offense, based on Scott Linehan's playbook and offensive philosophies, that has a history of rewarding physically gifted quarterbacks. Sweet deal, match made in heaven, right?
Damn little knee injury caveat though. To this day, do you take a quarterback, even one with a history of using his legs a lot, with a knee injury, or one with a bad shoulder injury? To this day, you still take the knee injury and hope for the best. What a harsh reminder that even 9:1 odds mean you'll lose one time in ten.
The flow of injury news from Culpepper's knee has been up and down almost constantly, but the general trend has not been positive. He was doing well, participating fully in all mini-camps, but then he was having a bunch of pain in the knee itself and continuing to limp. He promises to start week one, but the knee made his mechanics shoddy (particularly his drops), his arm less than what it once was, and robbed him of his normal ability to break that first sack attempt either with his significant size, or his ability to explode out of his stance. They keep scanning and keep scanning for something in the knee to explain the unexpected problems, and hallelujah they find the most hated piece of microscopic loose cartilage in South Florida, hiding behind a knee cap.
That he even needed a second surgery on the knee is rather horrible news, to be honest. But the piece of cartilage is now gone, so everything should be smooth as nutty putty on Jenna Jameson's stomach, no? Not so, unfortunately. That the piece of cartilage was even there is, at the very least, mildly suggestive that another rogue piece of cartilage could show up in the same spot at any time. It is also quite suggestive of a rehab process that most certainly is NOT going smooth as silk. Also, if the thing was so small as to escape detection from multiple scans, to where the surgeons only found it after they conducted some open knee, exploratory surgery on Daunte, then there's a certain bit of PR scapegoating that has to be considered a possibility here. Was this microscopic piece of cartilage REALLY the culprit? Or, was it rather symptomatic of some other issue?
Not long after the second surgery, Daunte is claiming to have no pain in the knee, and onlookers see no limp. I'm not entirely sure how much you can read into that, considering things that have come out of Daunte's mouth in the past about his knee and their notorious unreliability. He is quite guilty of wanting his knee to be healthy while his knee is guilty of not wanting anything to do with healthiness. Now, we get even more word that the coaches just may not be comfortable with the knee's prospects for 2007. Talk about yikes.
His downfield mentality in 2006 was the same as it always was, but you combine that downfield mentality with his inability to break tackles, inability to explode out of his stance, as piss poor line play as I've seen in Miami since the Cincinnati game in the beginning of 2004, inconsistent blocking from the runners and tight ends (particularly McMichael), lack of open receiving options, defenses smelling blood and sending the blitz on most plays, and a reported unwillingness of Daunte to change his downfield focus...and you have the recipe for some disastrous outings.
Unfortunately, Nick Saban completed the worst-case scenario when he ignored the best quarterback on his roster in favor of Mr. CFL-bound Joey Harrington. The only thing Harrington was hungry for was a good outing against his old team, Detroit. That his one and only complete performance of the entire year was against Detroit speaks volumes about his true motivation level in Miami. This was a player that, from the start, gave signs of accepting his role as a backup in the NFL. Oh sure, he said the obligatory words about all quarterbacks wanting to start, but it was also clear that he was happier being a backup in Miami, than being a starter in Detroit.
Check that. Rewind. Let's review that a bit. Should that *ever* be the case, for a good starting NFL quarterback? That he is happier being a backup in this place, over being a starter in this place?
The answer is a clear, resounding N-O. Eighty percent of the quarterback position in the NFL (since the NFL personnel system is so good at weeding out the myriad of guys that don't have the physical tangibles to even make a roster) is about competitiveness, work ethic, and desire. Those things formulate the basics of leadership for a leadership-oriented position.
No matter how many people liked to paint a picture of the dirtiest, dingiest, most un-football city and franchise in America, things in Detroit were not nearly as bad as Miami homers attempted to paint it with their magical dirt brushes. There is no excuse for preferring a backup job in Miami to a starter job in Detroit. No matter how little respect the ignorant masses decided to give Steve Mariucci, he was widely regarded by LEAGUE personalities (read: people who know what they are talking about) as one of the finest quarterback mentors in the game. The sad part is that despite the venom spewed from Miami fans toward him, Dre Bly's comments about Joey were actually pretty well-constructed, and almost 100 percent correct.
And so, Nick Saban left Joey out there way too long, as he was apt to do. How long was it before Saban finally stopped toying around with Stockar McDougle in 2005, before going with Carey, who is now playing the right tackle position at damn near a pro bowl level? How long was it before Saban finally took Travares "Whoopsie" Tillman out of the starting lineup, while Yeremiah Bell made play after play after play as a rotator? The same was quite true of Joey Harrington and Cleo Lemon.
This was almost a pathological failing of Nick Saban's. Theoretically, it has its positives in that you cannot afford to be too reactionary because sometimes your reliable veterans going through a tough time can bounce back and make you glad you stuck with them. However, when did guys like Harrington, Tillman, and McDougle ever prove to be reliable veterans, in order to buy that kind of street cred?
That Cleo Lemon's first start did not come until the final game of the year, when Cleo nearly upset the Super Bowl Champion Colts in a 27-22 loss in which we banged out 5 field goals, should be accounted easily as big a crime on Nick Saban's rap sheet as lying to us all about Alabama.
Let's look at the bare bones of the Miami Dolphins' stat sheets from 2006 for a moment. The order of quarterback rating is hardly coincidental. Cleo Lemon was our best quarterback in 2006, followed by an injured Culpepper, followed by Harrington.
Unfortunately, we have a lot of people out there that are pretty much mostly just lazy with regards to fact-finding about Cleo Lemon. They don't know the background or the facts, they don't want to know them, they just want to sh-t all over anyone that isn't a high-pedigree former starter with a record of blowing chunks all over himself, his coaches, and teammates. Hence the interest in Joey Harrington as having "monster potential" or now David Carr who, strictly speaking, would be an upgrade on CFL-bound Joey Harrington (which isn't saying much).
Cleo Lemon is a guy that has had positive momentum pretty much every single year of his college and pro career. He's a 6'2" and 230 pound quarterback with legs to run and an arm that makes some of even the best quarterbacks jealous. That arm has had at least one head coach harkening all the way back to John Elway, in terms of arm strength. He's got middling accuracy and good decision making, but most of all, what he has is the desire to prove himself and to improve himself.
That desire is part of what led to a now-famous rift between Marty Schottenheimer and A.J. Smith. Yes, little old Cleo Lemon. Marty and staff loved the upstart. They refused to let Smith cut him and pulled a power play in 2004, forcing Smith to keep him on the roster as a fourth quarterback where Smith wanted nothing more than to cut the unheralded Lemon in favor of veteran Doug Flutie. Then, in 2005, Smith pulled his own trump card by trading away this local media and coaching staff favorite for a box of your finest grocery store wine. Both power plays contributed heavily to the rift that led to Marty Schottenheimer's eventual firing.
Since coming to Miami, all Cleo has basically done is succeed better than any quarterback we had on the roster in 2005 or 2006. Apply that to any quarterback (Frerotte, Rosenfels, Culpepper, Harrington), at any level of football (preseason, regular season). Rosenfels' 2005 QB rating was ever-so-slightly higher than Lemon's 2006 rating, but Lemon's interception rate was lower and Lemon gets to boast the fact that in his one-and-only start, he didn't vomit all over himself so badly that the coach was forced to bench him in favor of a guy that wasn't supposed to play because of an injured finger, during a game that the team played so poorly that Nick Saban's post-game locker room speech was the most "come to jesus" moment a close friend of Saban's said he has ever witnessed in their long friendship.
In the 2005 preseason with San Diego he outperformed Sage Rosenfels' 2005 preseason, let alone that of Gus Frerotte and Brock Berlin. In the 2006 preseason he outperformed both Joey Harrington and Daunte Culpepper. He then goes on to outperform those two (in addition to the previous two) during the regular season.
So what do we have now?
Well, Harrington is gone, likely to the CFL (thank god). We're down to Daunte and Cleo.
With Daunte, we have a set of severely diminished expectations compared to those we had a year ago. Remember the thesis back then. You've got a physically gifted quarterback, walking into a system that was designed by a coordinator who does well with physically gifted quarterbacks.
Is that true anymore? No. The system we have in place now is the Zampese system, some may call it the 'Air Coryall' system though in truth the only coordinator operating it nowadays that keeps with the "air" reputation is Mike Martz. If Scott Linehan's relatively simple and formulaic system of key reads and check-offs rewarded quarterbacks for their physical ability to make plays (a la Dan Marino), the Zampese system is much more notorious for rewarding quarterbacks for their mental ability to read the field (a la Troy Aikman). Is one way of doing it inherently better than the other? Absolutely not. Play calling talent is play calling talent, the system is just the context. But, the fit is important.
Does Daunte Culpepper "fit"? I wish I knew. I can tell you that when Mike Martz interviewed for the position of Head Coach here in Miami, he plainly told Huizenga and Co. that he would have rather had Gus Frerotte over Daunte Culpepper. That right there is at least ONE of the Zampese coordinators that has expressed clear disapproval of Daunte Culpepper. Could the others disagree? Absolutely. But, it isn't anything to give us confidence in Daunte making a system switch and coming out gold on the other end. Last I checked, you don't expect to sh-t some golden nuggets just because you drank a little Goldschlager.
With Daunte having diminished expectations, Cleo riding a high but, in the end, still having a mediocre total performance in a way-less-than-mediocre offense, it is absolutely no surprise that the staff have turned to Trent Green to bring a little stability, leadership, and know-how into the backfield.
Let's get this straight right now. Trent Green has been a more successful quarterback than Daunte Culpepper in his career. Out of the 8 years that Green has played, he has achieved 90+ quarterback ratings in 5 of them. His very worst years as a pro, 2001 and 2006, were a bit Jay Fiedler-ish, but the rest of the time he's been much more Tom Brady.
And so, if you believe that Trent Green is the same quarterback in 2007 that he was in 2005, he is your man. Absolutely, without a doubt. If you believe his 2006 performance was indicative of his current skills, and/or that his concussion in 2006 carries an exponentially more grim prognosis than your every-day concussions that the average football player suffers multiple times throughout his career, then you are basically adding another mediocre quarterback to a mediocre stable of quarterbacks.
The latter very strong possibility, is the reason Randy Mueller is low-balling Carl Peterson with an offer of a 7th round pick. But, Carl Peterson is not buying it. His most recent statements have all-but ruled out the possibility that Miami trades a 7th round pick for Trent Green. Peterson's history suggests that he will *never* trade a guy for a 7th round pick, after just getting done telling the press that the guy is worth more than a 7th round pick. He won't allow it. He would rather cut Trent Green outright and get nothing for him, and then convince the press that he did so out of respect for Trent Green and everything he has done for the organization. That is Peterson's way.
So who will blink first? In the end, I believe it could be both teams. This is also an established pattern of Carl Peterson's. The Dolphins and Chiefs will hunker down and prepare for a very drawn-out staring contest right up until the draft, when both teams could flinch. Miami could up their offer to a 6th round draft choice, and the Chiefs will accept it rather than face releasing Green for no compensation. In the mean time, expect Green to play every bit of the malcontent, like Olindo Mare is currently doing in Miami. He will ask for his release, he will say that the Chiefs organization is not being fair to him, not respecting his contributions to the organization, etc. He will put pressure on the Chiefs to resolve the situation quickly.
I also believe that the interest in David Carr is a red herring. If you believe Peter King, as well as some people in and around the Texans situation, David Carr is very seriously pondering early retirement. A guy like that does not have the requisite drive and desire to prove himself in the NFL. His career has been mediocre at the best of times, awful at the worst of times. Unfortunately, people would love to look at his draft standing and talk about his "upside". I call that a value trap, as it is called in the equity analyst business. He is better than Joey Harrington, for sure, but that is not saying a whole lot. He has the potential, if he were to develop a competitive drive that his current retirement considerations seem to rule out, to sit the bench for a few years in a particular system (such as the west coast offense) and then have a late-career revival a la Rich Gannon or Chris Chandler. But, that almost certainly will not happen in 2007, and probably would not happen until he turned 30 years old.
The Dolphins staff will continue toying with David Carr, and putting it out there that they are "split" over whether to get Green or Carr, basically as a tool to convince Carl Peterson to play ball. I believe they are now convinced that they will need to give more than a 7th round draft choice for Green, but they need Peterson to come off his outlandish 2nd round asking price if they want to have Trent Green in camp some time before June.
This also brings me to another point, and that is that the Dolphins will not feel as desperate about getting Green in camp ASAP, as they did with Joey Harrington in 2006. Harrington was expected to learn a completely new system. Green will be operating the same basic playbook, with the same basic terminology, and near-identical philosophy, as he has been operating since he entered the league. He already knows this playbook better than every Miami Dolphin save for *maybe* Cleo Lemon and Justin Peelle. Furthermore, the Dolphins' quarterbacks coach, Terry Shea, has been Trent Green's quarterbacks coach for five of the last six years, which includes 2006, obviously a very down year for Trent. Shea, having been close to the situation, can easily tell Cameron and Mueller why Green had a down year in 2006, and whether or not they can expect him to bounce back. As if it couldn't get better, Terry Robiskie was the WRs coach in Washington when Green was there, and Cam Cameron was the QBs coach in Washington, which represented Trent's first exposure to the NFL.
In short, Trent Green was made for the Dolphins in a way that few other quarterbacks in the NFL can boast.
But then there is that little caveat about age, and his concussion.
Sound familiar? It should. Daunte Culpepper was supposed to be made for this offense in 2006, save for that little tiny knee caveat. Where this year's example *might* be different is that Mike Mularkey screwed up the whole Linehan system with his ****eyed brand of stewardship. By all means, the Dolphins appear to have a much more premium play caller in place in Cam Cameron.
Yet we still have loads and loads of uncertainty even with Trent Green. This represents the reason why I find talk of cutting Culpepper to be a touch on the unbelievable side. First off, Miami would have to make a VERY significant injury settlement with Daunte, since arguably they worsened his knee in 2005 by playing him too early. Secondly, Trent Green's agent has supposedly already agreed to lower his salary significantly, which kind of sort of rules out the possibility of "two high priced quarterbacks". If they reports are to be believed, Cleo Lemon's 2007 base salary could even outstrip Trent Green's.
Third, if you're shooting craps and need seven the hard way, wouldn't you rather have three rolls than two?
Ah but what about a rookie quarterback? What about Brady Quinn? Well, Miami are definitely looking at rookie quarterbacks. However, I believe this is a totally separate consideration. Randy Mueller is entirely familiar with the idea of bringing four quality quarterbacks to camp. He loves to boast about bringing Aaron Brooks, Jeff Blake, Jake Delhomme, and Marc Bulger to camp once with the Saints.
Furthermore, Cam Cameron is even more intimately familiar with the idea of holding four quarterbacks on the active roster, lest we forget his involvement in the Schottenheimer/Smith feud that saw Cleo kept on as a fourth string quarterback for a year and then traded without permission the following year.
Bottom line is even if you bring Daunte Culpepper, Trent Green, Cleo Lemon, and a rookie quarterback to camp in July, there is at least a fair possibility that you don't come out of camp with even three of them still healthy and in tact. So why wouldn't you go in with all four?
On the other hand, there is at least a halfway decent chance that the Dolphins have an opportunity to trade Daunte Culpepper. This would be a wise choice, even if it does rob us of one of our chances at achieving solid quarterback play in 2007. I have been talking about Oakland as a serious possibility in this regard for quite some time. The Raiders came sniffing at Daunte last year, but were rebuffed by Daunte himself when he told them he was focused on Miami. Al Davis is notorious for liking big-armed quarterbacks that can throw vertically, and getting Daunte in the fold would be a quick and easy way to mend broken fences with Randy Moss. It would allow the Raiders to take the best player in the draft, Calvin Johnson, and mending broken fences with Moss would do two even better, allowing Calvin to play the same Split End position he played at Georgia Tech, and moving Joey Porter to the slot where he (much like Chris Chambers) has had his most success as a pro. The whole idea has to appeal to the Raiders, especially at a low price. If I'm the Dolphins and I can get them to promise me a 4th round draft selection, I'm pulling the trigger.
The Kansas City Chiefs are another possibility, even though they run the same Zampese playbook that Culpepper would be leaving. But, Mike Solari is not one of the big three Zampese students (Martz, Saunders, Turner), and he may or may not be wise enough to know his kind of quarterback when he sees him. At this point, Cameron is by far the most accomplished of the third generation Zampese coordinators. People like Mike Solari (Kansas City) and Steve Fairchild (Buffalo) have yet to make names for themselves.
One possibility that I feel is not talked about enough is the Jacksonville Jaguars. Daunte's preference is to stay in Florida, and Jacksonville's fanbase mostly coincides with his UCF fanbase that made him so popular in Florida. The Raiders and Jags have been off and on about Byron Leftwich for some time now, with Jacksonville pulling a power move announcing Leftwich's starting job in order to maintain his potentially falling trade value. That trade could still get done in some way that involves moving Moss to Jacksonville. Jacksonville would almost naturally look to Culpepper to re-unite the two, bring Daunte to a fanbase that are pretty much already fans of his, and look to have Daunte make some big throws to some big targets with an offensive line that can protect him far better than either Miami or Oakland could.
Issue #2: The Draft
Speaking of quarterback, we might as well get that out of the way first. To Quinn, or not to Quinn?
Well, Quinn is the perfect quarterback for Cam Cameron. There is absolutely no doubt that the Miami coaching staff are in love with him from head to toe. All of the things that Cameron holds dear in a quarterback, Quinn shows in spades. He works harder than any other quarterback in the draft. His competitive spirit is incredible, bordering on neurosis (a good thing, one you could find in most of the great ones). His accuracy is very good, although it tends to break down a little more on vertical throws. He is physically fit (highly impressive 23 bench repetitions, ridiculous pro day measurements for a dropback passer), a notorious gym rat (he and his girlfriend once signed up for a gym membership in the carribean while vacationing there a few weeks, just so they could stay in top shape), and an avid film junky (spent an entire summer scouring every single throw Tom Brady ever made in Weis' offense).
I could go on for hours about Quinn but the bottom line is he just will not be available at #9, and I don't think Miami has the stones to move up far enough to get him. He won't survive Oakland, Detroit, Cleveland, and Tampa. If he did, he'd find a stretch of teams in Arizona, Washington, and Minnesota that would be all too happy to accomodate someone in a trade down that would enable some team to bypass Miami. Of course, Miami could pony up a second round pick to make sure they get him at #5, #6, or #7...but again that would mean Quinn somehow fell beyond Oakland, Detroit, Cleveland, and Tampa.
Other quarterbacks that Miami have shown interest in include Drew Stanton and Tyler Palko. Stanton, many of you know. He has a lot of physical ability and a good record of production spiced up with all too many WTF moments. He's a smart quarterback, reads the field pretty well, but doesn't have the competitive spirit, desire, or ability to come through in big moments that Brady Quinn has. Yes, Brady Quinn has tremendous ability to make big throws in big moments. It is what he was known for in 2005. This whole thing about falling apart in big games is bunk. The Notre Dame offense was overwhelmed in big games by defenses that were way too athletic for Notre Dame's modest weaponry (and especially offensive line) along with a piss poor defense that forced the Notre Dame offense to score a touchdown nearly every possession in order to keep up. In 2006 especially, Stanton seemed to find a way to screw up in some big moments. Worst of all, he doesn't seem to care as much as some other quarterbacks would. Smart, but is he really a student of the game? Fit, but is he really a gym rat? Those are questions Miami would have to satisfactorily answer before they go for him. If his interviews and chalk talk are superbly impressive, do not count out the possibility of trading from #40 back into the first round to get him in the fold.
Palko is an interesting case. He's a small-ish 6'1" quarterback but his leadership, desire, and competitive spirit are all outstanding. His accuracy is good and he is generally safe with the football, broken up with some mistakes. He was a guy that seemed well on his way to stardom at the college level and then seemed like he got snake-bit by Dave Wannstedt's arrival. His first year as a starter he completed over 70 percent of his passes, with 24 TDs and only 7 INTs (a 1.5% rate, excellent) as Pitt went to an 8-4 record and scored 27 points per game.
But, he wasn't a complete quarterback. His completion percentage was inflated by short passes in a less-NFL style offense, as his yards per completion was at a paltry 9.3 average. Dave Wannstedt arrived with Matt Cavanagh, who installed the Zampese offense as run by Norv Turner and the like. In his first season, Palko suffered. His accuracy drew back to 56 percent, his interception rate climbed (although still a healthy 2.6%), and he threw fewer touchdowns in a more run-focused attack (classic Wannstedt, eh?) as the Panthers started out 1-4 and finished 5-6. On the bright side, his yards per completion jumped up to a much more healthy and NFL-translatable 12.4 average.
But this year Palko really settled into the NFL-style offense. The Panthers scored 32 points per game this season. Their late-season slide seemed to have a lot more to do with Davd Wannstedt's defense than the offense, which continued to score points. He completed 68 percent of his passes while keeping his yards per completion up to a 13.0 average, throwing 25 touchdowns, and still a relatively low 2.8% interception rate.
Dave Wannstedt has been really talking up his leadership abilities and there have been a number of teams showing interest. The teams are almost exclusively teams that run the Zampese offense. Palko is a Day 2 prospect because he doesn't have anything outstanding that speaks to you, most especially because his his biggest screwups in 2006 seemed to come against the toughest opponents. What he does have is good accuracy, invaluable experience in the system, and the will and determination to get better. Some guys like that, they do get good enough. Most do not.
Now the big question is what the Dolphins will do at #9. It is impossible to predict absolutely, because much of it depends on who is available. Your best laid logic and rationale can be rendered oboslete by one unexpected pick.
Last year, Boomer, KB21, and I had a fair amount of luck predicting the Jason Allen pick simply by following some connections. In the end, all three of us were tempted to do a bit of wishful thinking on the prediction, choosing the guys we wanted instead of the guys we actually thought Miami would take. Lawson was a sexy pick, but Allen was where all the connections were.
This year the same kind of connections analysis points toward WR Ted Ginn Jr. of Ohio State. Cam Cameron and staff have met with Ted twice now, with significant chalk talk sessions being had at both meetings. As per a number of players that have spoken with Miami, the staff have taken to drilling their interviews extensively on their playbooks, asking them to draw up as many plays as they can remember in a timed period, ostensibly 60 seconds. The reason I bring this up is because Ted Ginn Jr., though he does not have a reputation as the sharpest knife in the drawer, grew up the son of one of Ohio's most successful high school football coaches. He has also played both ways, was the #1 cornerback recruit in the nation in high school, converted to WR in college. His background would give him significant advantages over some other players in any chalk talk session with Cam Cameron and the staff. Additionally, Cam Cameron first met Ted Ginn Jr. when he was in junior high school. It has gone unadvertised, but Cameron may have a relationship with Ted Sr. What we do know is that Chris Chambers and Ted Ginn Jr. have a close relationship from when they lived down the street from each other. Ted said that Chris is like an older brother to him. There were reports that they are actually first cousins, but that is unconfirmed.
Couple the chalk talk advantages with Randy Mueller's very extensive history of drafting receivers with speed, such as another Ohio State product, Joey Galloway, and you have one prospect that marries the two different, and sometimes conflicting, preferences of both Randy Mueller and Cam Cameron. With both guys kicking off what they hope to be a long run in a complicated and difficult relationship as General Manager and Head Coach, neither of which has final say authority (remember all moves must be agreed-upon by both men, with ties broken by Bryan Wiedmeier), I would look for them both to gravitate towards a pick that could help exemplify this complicated equal-power relationship working in action. That's my opinion.
From an offensive standpoint, Cameron has noted that he would like to build from the center-outward. That means a quarterback, runningback, fullback, and center. They're working on the quarterback issue now with Trent Green, Culpepper, and Lemon, and possibly a draft quarterback depending on who is available where. The fullback they got in not only Cory Schlesinger, but my feeling is Kyle Eckel could make the roster as well. The runningback is obviously taken care of with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. While I would not count on Rex Hadnot being long for center, that position is not destined to be taken care of with the #9 pick. There is no denying that the offense needs a spark, however...especially in light of Randy McMichael's release. I believe it is well-advertised by now that Chris Chambers' best production seems to have come when he has been allowed to move around the field and especially into the slot position. Getting a receiver that can play Chambers' Flanker position, even as a rookie, allows Chris to get into positions where he can do more danger despite our weak offensive line.
Many have suggested taking Levi Brown at the #9 spot. He has been very good at Penn State, and he has loads of experience, a tremendous attitude and the will to accept coaching in order to get better. He has good size and physicals. He is, however, lacking in the athleticism department and though he slides well, there is significant question as to whether he has the quick feet to play the position. For a guy with poor hand placement that needs improving through coaching, he would need to have exceptional feet in order to survive as a rookie left tackle in 2007. To me, there is too much uncertainty over his ability to play the left tackle position to put a position value premium on him as a prospect.
The Dolphins could also use a nice re-load on defense in this draft. As is well-advertised by now, the defense has some well-aged parts on it. The front office did not make a special effort to get younger for the sake of getting younger, and that could mean we begin re-stocking with draft picks, including the #9 pick. Adam Carriker is a beast of a defensive end, perfect for this defense in every way but one...that being the fact that we've got Matt Roth in his third year off a second round draft pick, and Vonnie Holliday on a brand new four-year deal. I have him as one of the top 6 talents in the draft, nonetheless. Alan Branch has the potential to be a dominant 3-technique in this league but he has the stamina and physique of a guy that will end up at the 1-technique (pretty much a nose tackle, for all intents and purposes) because he can't seem to get that perfect athlete's body and stamina.
Leon Hall and Darrelle Revis are the best two corners in the draft. Revis doesn't have the experience going against top flight receivers that Hall does, but he also doesn't have the tape Hall does of getting burnt deep by Dwayne Jarrett and Ted Ginn Jr. Revis is a monster tackler, very physical, a leader in the secondary, and well-versed in Dave Wannstedt's brand of press man coverage. Hall has better experience, and better ball skills. They are both about as athletic as each other, in fact two of the top three most athletic corners in the draft based on a size-weighted basis (Marcus McCauley is #1, no surprises there).
Many have suggested that LaRon Landry would be an excellent pick in the secondary for the Dolphins. I do not share this position. First off, I believe Reggie Nelson to be a better pure safety prospect, as he has the same wheels as Landry but has been a much more natural intimidator and more importantly, ball hawk. Many believe that taking Landry (or Nelson) has the potential to fix our problems at safety as well as corner, by moving Jason Allen back to corner. I say this has the potential to weaken two positions, because Allen has already have a tough time learning one position, and this was true at Tennessee as well. To move him to corner would give us a rookie at safety, and a veritable rookie at corner as well. That does not help as much in 2007. Taking Hall or Revis would help the team more in 2007 by allowing Allen to resume what he has learned at safety, where he showed tremendous explosion toward the ball late in the year.
Pat Willis is not likely to be a popular pick at #9 because of what it would mean for Zach Thomas. But the bottom line is he is the rare kind of prospect that you look for in the top 10 of the draft, and he could help us re-load an important position that could go cold any year now when Zach Thomas retires. Many believe that he would play a year from the bench. This is not true. Immediately, he would likely start at weak side linebacker over Channing Crowder. It would seem a waste to put Channing on the bench, but he would not stay there very long. Either he, or Willis, would be Zach's eventual successor. Both could man the middle for a great many years, once Zach retires. For those that are concerned with 2007, Zach would likely come off the field on passing downs and in nickel packages. His coverage skills are weakening a bit, which I think we can all agree on. Willis and Crowder would come in on those downs.
Overall when it comes to the players we could pick at #9, Carriker, Willis, Branch, Hall, Revis, Landry, Nelson, Brown, or Ginn Jr., the ones I find to have the most ability to affect this team in 2007 would be Hall, Revis, and Ginn Jr. Are those the best players of the bunch? No. I have Carriker a clear best player among the group of possibilities, but I am not sure Miami agree with me.
Maybe I have a bit of a junior high mentality, but when it comes to which of Hall, Revis, and Ginn Jr. I believe the Dolphins should pick, I think of them matching up against each other. When Ted Ginn Jr. faced Michigan in 2005, he caught 9 passes. When he faced them in 2006, he caught for 100+ yards and a long touchdown that was caught directly on Leon Hall in coverage. Hall ran a 4.39 at the Combine, and Ginn Jr. made him look slow. He has also made Thorpe Award winner (given to the best defensive back in college ball) Aaron Ross look silly in press man coverage for a touchdown against Texas. Ted Ginn Jr. could clearly win his matchup with Leon Hall, and I do not think it a far stretch of the imagination to see him winning a matchup on Darrelle Revis.
I have never seen a player as functionally fast as Ted Ginn Jr. in pads, on the field. I was not watching college ball when Deion played, nor was I watching when Barry Sanders played. What makes Ted Ginn Jr. so special is his ability to go zero to 60 mph at the drop of a hat, and his ability to change directions at top speeds. He has a bigger range of swivel at top speeds than your normal "fast" players that end up tracked when they are going at their top speeds. Ginn ends up looking untracked, to where he can make sharp cuts at speeds normally not possible. I have seen full 90 degree cuts that make your jaw drop and harken back to the heyday of O.J. Simpson at USC. This does not just make him a threat as a punt returner and kick returner (although he would immediately become the most dangerous return man in the NFL outside of Devin Hester, and maybe not even excepting him). This makes him a threat on offense, because he has a natural feel for extending his angles and busting through them. I've also not seen a player as light as him break as many tackles as he regularly does because of his great balance and quickness. It is simple, if you're going to make a square tackle on him, he has such great quickness as to make your square tackle attempt more of a glancing blow by the time you reach him. You must wrap up, you can't arm tackle him. I never thought I'd say that about a guy that is only a little over 170 pounds, but it is absolutely true. If any of you ever get the time, search on YouTube for Ted Ginn Jr.'s high school highlight video. If you thought "the tape" from Reggie Bush was impressive, get a load of Ted Ginn Jr. He will make a dozen cuts on any one play, running around and by high school players as if they are pee-wee players. I haven't seen stuff like that since the last time I played with Bo Jackson on Tecmo Super Bowl.
As for his receiving skills, which get commonly knocked, he is raw, but he does not lack potential in this regard. There is NOTHING in his running to suggest that he has stiff hips, or an inability to run precise routes. As a coach's son, he has an understanding of many sides of the game, and the ability to know what each part of the offense should be doing. The fact of the matter was that at OSU, they did not ask him to run a wide variety of routes, so it isn't completely his fault that he doesn't run a wide variety of routes with precision. Torry Holt rounded off his routes for the first couple of years in St. Louis. Martz did not care, so long as he ran and caught at top speeds. The same may be true with Ginn Jr. If you are a Courtney Taylor and you run a 4.5, have average athleticism, it is a little bit more important to run precise routes and be able to do everything really well to make yourself dangerous, than it is if you are Ted Ginn Jr. and you could smoke just about any corner that attempts to play some classic press man on you.
As for his hands, I believe he has tremendous hands and ability to focus on the ball, especially considering the speeds at which he is commonly running when he makes those catches. I haven't noticed hands as a problem for Ginn, nor have I noticed them being particularly exceptional like on Robert Meachem. Even in high school as a corner, he had the ability to high-point the ball and make fantastic catches. In fact, he is such an accomplished corner that he could even be considered for two-way action, especially in a pinch. If he fails as a receiver, you could put him on defense and still end up with one of the best corners in football.
So again, this all comes back to the connections. Cameron familiar with the kid himself from meeting him in Junior High. He's familiar with his father, one of the best high school coaches in the state of Ohio. If Cameron decides to hit up any of his old Michigan connections, they'll likely tell him just how difficult it was to handle Ted Ginn Jr. His background suggests that he can probably pass the chalk test. His speed suggests that he easily passes Mueller's speed tests. He's "like a brother" to Chris Chambers. He has the most potential to impact the team in 2007. He can play Flanker while Chambers moves inside. He can return punts and kicks where Az Hakim is the only punt returner on the roster, and Miami has no experienced kick returner. One pick, one player, and he can impact the team at four positions. He can play Flanker, he can help us move Chambers into the slot, he can return punts, and he can return kicks.
For the rest of the draft, Miami have been paying attention to a lot of offensive line, especially inside offensive line. Andy Alleman is high on radar. Adam Koets is a tackle that is high on radar, went through a chalk talk session with the coaches. Brandon Frye is most likely high on radar. Aaron Sears definitely is. Cameron Stephenson has been on radar since before Saban left. Hudson Houck was personally there to work out Kyle Cook. I would bet my left arm that they have their eyes on Samson Satele and Doug Free. James Marten has been under watch, as well. Dane Uperesa drew Houck's personal attention. Rumors have linked us with Ryan Harris. The real attention-getter is our interest in Joe Staley. Houck was there to view his workout, to the best of my knowledge, and Mueller has noted how impressive Staley is in interview. You could see Miami trade back into the bottom of the first round to get hold of either Staley, or like I said before Drew Stanton (supposing he passes Cameron's strenuous interview and chalk tests).
Mueller continues to pay special attention to outside rushers as well. One lesser known guy to keep an eye on in this regard would be Xzavie Jackson. Miami have taken a keen interest in Greg Olsen, again another guy to keep an eye out for us to possibly trade back into the first round if he falls too far. You have to keep an eye on guys like Paul Soliai, LaRon Harris, and Antonio Johnson as possible nose tackle types. Soliai in particular would be a first rounder if he hadn't been an offensive tackle for much of his time at Utah. Teams are worried about character issues (suspension), and that he only has one year of starting. Otherwise he's a physical freak of a phenom, and he doesn't play like a character problem. He doesn't perform like one. He plays like he's worked hard to develop that kind of stamina and physical ability. Sure, it could be natural, but if it is, that is even more scary.
Keep an eye on Rudy Sylvan, a big blocking TE from Ohio with tons of measurable explosion. Could move to the offensive line a la Kris Dielman. Also, the coaches have been on Brannon Condren, another physical freak safety/corner. He was a returner in high school, has the juggernaut measurables to be tried there in the pros. Miami have been on Chris Henry's case too, he could be a late round pick for us if he falls that far.
Back on the quarterback front, a guy I really like and believe to the be the third-best quarterback in the draft is John Beck of BYU. Heck of an arm on him, great production record, leader, hard worker, extremely accurate, athletic. Jeff Rowe is a good prospect as well. Big, tall guy with good arm and accuracy, played in a bit of a gimmick offense at Nevada.
Issue #1: Daunte Culpepper
What a difference a year makes. Or rather, maybe I would prefer the platitude: what was true a year ago, may not be true today.
Last year the Daunte Culpepper acquisition made a lot of sense to me. He is a physically gifted quarterback. The Dolphins ran an offense, based on Scott Linehan's playbook and offensive philosophies, that has a history of rewarding physically gifted quarterbacks. Sweet deal, match made in heaven, right?
Damn little knee injury caveat though. To this day, do you take a quarterback, even one with a history of using his legs a lot, with a knee injury, or one with a bad shoulder injury? To this day, you still take the knee injury and hope for the best. What a harsh reminder that even 9:1 odds mean you'll lose one time in ten.
The flow of injury news from Culpepper's knee has been up and down almost constantly, but the general trend has not been positive. He was doing well, participating fully in all mini-camps, but then he was having a bunch of pain in the knee itself and continuing to limp. He promises to start week one, but the knee made his mechanics shoddy (particularly his drops), his arm less than what it once was, and robbed him of his normal ability to break that first sack attempt either with his significant size, or his ability to explode out of his stance. They keep scanning and keep scanning for something in the knee to explain the unexpected problems, and hallelujah they find the most hated piece of microscopic loose cartilage in South Florida, hiding behind a knee cap.
That he even needed a second surgery on the knee is rather horrible news, to be honest. But the piece of cartilage is now gone, so everything should be smooth as nutty putty on Jenna Jameson's stomach, no? Not so, unfortunately. That the piece of cartilage was even there is, at the very least, mildly suggestive that another rogue piece of cartilage could show up in the same spot at any time. It is also quite suggestive of a rehab process that most certainly is NOT going smooth as silk. Also, if the thing was so small as to escape detection from multiple scans, to where the surgeons only found it after they conducted some open knee, exploratory surgery on Daunte, then there's a certain bit of PR scapegoating that has to be considered a possibility here. Was this microscopic piece of cartilage REALLY the culprit? Or, was it rather symptomatic of some other issue?
Not long after the second surgery, Daunte is claiming to have no pain in the knee, and onlookers see no limp. I'm not entirely sure how much you can read into that, considering things that have come out of Daunte's mouth in the past about his knee and their notorious unreliability. He is quite guilty of wanting his knee to be healthy while his knee is guilty of not wanting anything to do with healthiness. Now, we get even more word that the coaches just may not be comfortable with the knee's prospects for 2007. Talk about yikes.
His downfield mentality in 2006 was the same as it always was, but you combine that downfield mentality with his inability to break tackles, inability to explode out of his stance, as piss poor line play as I've seen in Miami since the Cincinnati game in the beginning of 2004, inconsistent blocking from the runners and tight ends (particularly McMichael), lack of open receiving options, defenses smelling blood and sending the blitz on most plays, and a reported unwillingness of Daunte to change his downfield focus...and you have the recipe for some disastrous outings.
Unfortunately, Nick Saban completed the worst-case scenario when he ignored the best quarterback on his roster in favor of Mr. CFL-bound Joey Harrington. The only thing Harrington was hungry for was a good outing against his old team, Detroit. That his one and only complete performance of the entire year was against Detroit speaks volumes about his true motivation level in Miami. This was a player that, from the start, gave signs of accepting his role as a backup in the NFL. Oh sure, he said the obligatory words about all quarterbacks wanting to start, but it was also clear that he was happier being a backup in Miami, than being a starter in Detroit.
Check that. Rewind. Let's review that a bit. Should that *ever* be the case, for a good starting NFL quarterback? That he is happier being a backup in this place, over being a starter in this place?
The answer is a clear, resounding N-O. Eighty percent of the quarterback position in the NFL (since the NFL personnel system is so good at weeding out the myriad of guys that don't have the physical tangibles to even make a roster) is about competitiveness, work ethic, and desire. Those things formulate the basics of leadership for a leadership-oriented position.
No matter how many people liked to paint a picture of the dirtiest, dingiest, most un-football city and franchise in America, things in Detroit were not nearly as bad as Miami homers attempted to paint it with their magical dirt brushes. There is no excuse for preferring a backup job in Miami to a starter job in Detroit. No matter how little respect the ignorant masses decided to give Steve Mariucci, he was widely regarded by LEAGUE personalities (read: people who know what they are talking about) as one of the finest quarterback mentors in the game. The sad part is that despite the venom spewed from Miami fans toward him, Dre Bly's comments about Joey were actually pretty well-constructed, and almost 100 percent correct.
And so, Nick Saban left Joey out there way too long, as he was apt to do. How long was it before Saban finally stopped toying around with Stockar McDougle in 2005, before going with Carey, who is now playing the right tackle position at damn near a pro bowl level? How long was it before Saban finally took Travares "Whoopsie" Tillman out of the starting lineup, while Yeremiah Bell made play after play after play as a rotator? The same was quite true of Joey Harrington and Cleo Lemon.
This was almost a pathological failing of Nick Saban's. Theoretically, it has its positives in that you cannot afford to be too reactionary because sometimes your reliable veterans going through a tough time can bounce back and make you glad you stuck with them. However, when did guys like Harrington, Tillman, and McDougle ever prove to be reliable veterans, in order to buy that kind of street cred?
That Cleo Lemon's first start did not come until the final game of the year, when Cleo nearly upset the Super Bowl Champion Colts in a 27-22 loss in which we banged out 5 field goals, should be accounted easily as big a crime on Nick Saban's rap sheet as lying to us all about Alabama.
Let's look at the bare bones of the Miami Dolphins' stat sheets from 2006 for a moment. The order of quarterback rating is hardly coincidental. Cleo Lemon was our best quarterback in 2006, followed by an injured Culpepper, followed by Harrington.
Unfortunately, we have a lot of people out there that are pretty much mostly just lazy with regards to fact-finding about Cleo Lemon. They don't know the background or the facts, they don't want to know them, they just want to sh-t all over anyone that isn't a high-pedigree former starter with a record of blowing chunks all over himself, his coaches, and teammates. Hence the interest in Joey Harrington as having "monster potential" or now David Carr who, strictly speaking, would be an upgrade on CFL-bound Joey Harrington (which isn't saying much).
Cleo Lemon is a guy that has had positive momentum pretty much every single year of his college and pro career. He's a 6'2" and 230 pound quarterback with legs to run and an arm that makes some of even the best quarterbacks jealous. That arm has had at least one head coach harkening all the way back to John Elway, in terms of arm strength. He's got middling accuracy and good decision making, but most of all, what he has is the desire to prove himself and to improve himself.
That desire is part of what led to a now-famous rift between Marty Schottenheimer and A.J. Smith. Yes, little old Cleo Lemon. Marty and staff loved the upstart. They refused to let Smith cut him and pulled a power play in 2004, forcing Smith to keep him on the roster as a fourth quarterback where Smith wanted nothing more than to cut the unheralded Lemon in favor of veteran Doug Flutie. Then, in 2005, Smith pulled his own trump card by trading away this local media and coaching staff favorite for a box of your finest grocery store wine. Both power plays contributed heavily to the rift that led to Marty Schottenheimer's eventual firing.
Since coming to Miami, all Cleo has basically done is succeed better than any quarterback we had on the roster in 2005 or 2006. Apply that to any quarterback (Frerotte, Rosenfels, Culpepper, Harrington), at any level of football (preseason, regular season). Rosenfels' 2005 QB rating was ever-so-slightly higher than Lemon's 2006 rating, but Lemon's interception rate was lower and Lemon gets to boast the fact that in his one-and-only start, he didn't vomit all over himself so badly that the coach was forced to bench him in favor of a guy that wasn't supposed to play because of an injured finger, during a game that the team played so poorly that Nick Saban's post-game locker room speech was the most "come to jesus" moment a close friend of Saban's said he has ever witnessed in their long friendship.
In the 2005 preseason with San Diego he outperformed Sage Rosenfels' 2005 preseason, let alone that of Gus Frerotte and Brock Berlin. In the 2006 preseason he outperformed both Joey Harrington and Daunte Culpepper. He then goes on to outperform those two (in addition to the previous two) during the regular season.
So what do we have now?
Well, Harrington is gone, likely to the CFL (thank god). We're down to Daunte and Cleo.
With Daunte, we have a set of severely diminished expectations compared to those we had a year ago. Remember the thesis back then. You've got a physically gifted quarterback, walking into a system that was designed by a coordinator who does well with physically gifted quarterbacks.
Is that true anymore? No. The system we have in place now is the Zampese system, some may call it the 'Air Coryall' system though in truth the only coordinator operating it nowadays that keeps with the "air" reputation is Mike Martz. If Scott Linehan's relatively simple and formulaic system of key reads and check-offs rewarded quarterbacks for their physical ability to make plays (a la Dan Marino), the Zampese system is much more notorious for rewarding quarterbacks for their mental ability to read the field (a la Troy Aikman). Is one way of doing it inherently better than the other? Absolutely not. Play calling talent is play calling talent, the system is just the context. But, the fit is important.
Does Daunte Culpepper "fit"? I wish I knew. I can tell you that when Mike Martz interviewed for the position of Head Coach here in Miami, he plainly told Huizenga and Co. that he would have rather had Gus Frerotte over Daunte Culpepper. That right there is at least ONE of the Zampese coordinators that has expressed clear disapproval of Daunte Culpepper. Could the others disagree? Absolutely. But, it isn't anything to give us confidence in Daunte making a system switch and coming out gold on the other end. Last I checked, you don't expect to sh-t some golden nuggets just because you drank a little Goldschlager.
With Daunte having diminished expectations, Cleo riding a high but, in the end, still having a mediocre total performance in a way-less-than-mediocre offense, it is absolutely no surprise that the staff have turned to Trent Green to bring a little stability, leadership, and know-how into the backfield.
Let's get this straight right now. Trent Green has been a more successful quarterback than Daunte Culpepper in his career. Out of the 8 years that Green has played, he has achieved 90+ quarterback ratings in 5 of them. His very worst years as a pro, 2001 and 2006, were a bit Jay Fiedler-ish, but the rest of the time he's been much more Tom Brady.
And so, if you believe that Trent Green is the same quarterback in 2007 that he was in 2005, he is your man. Absolutely, without a doubt. If you believe his 2006 performance was indicative of his current skills, and/or that his concussion in 2006 carries an exponentially more grim prognosis than your every-day concussions that the average football player suffers multiple times throughout his career, then you are basically adding another mediocre quarterback to a mediocre stable of quarterbacks.
The latter very strong possibility, is the reason Randy Mueller is low-balling Carl Peterson with an offer of a 7th round pick. But, Carl Peterson is not buying it. His most recent statements have all-but ruled out the possibility that Miami trades a 7th round pick for Trent Green. Peterson's history suggests that he will *never* trade a guy for a 7th round pick, after just getting done telling the press that the guy is worth more than a 7th round pick. He won't allow it. He would rather cut Trent Green outright and get nothing for him, and then convince the press that he did so out of respect for Trent Green and everything he has done for the organization. That is Peterson's way.
So who will blink first? In the end, I believe it could be both teams. This is also an established pattern of Carl Peterson's. The Dolphins and Chiefs will hunker down and prepare for a very drawn-out staring contest right up until the draft, when both teams could flinch. Miami could up their offer to a 6th round draft choice, and the Chiefs will accept it rather than face releasing Green for no compensation. In the mean time, expect Green to play every bit of the malcontent, like Olindo Mare is currently doing in Miami. He will ask for his release, he will say that the Chiefs organization is not being fair to him, not respecting his contributions to the organization, etc. He will put pressure on the Chiefs to resolve the situation quickly.
I also believe that the interest in David Carr is a red herring. If you believe Peter King, as well as some people in and around the Texans situation, David Carr is very seriously pondering early retirement. A guy like that does not have the requisite drive and desire to prove himself in the NFL. His career has been mediocre at the best of times, awful at the worst of times. Unfortunately, people would love to look at his draft standing and talk about his "upside". I call that a value trap, as it is called in the equity analyst business. He is better than Joey Harrington, for sure, but that is not saying a whole lot. He has the potential, if he were to develop a competitive drive that his current retirement considerations seem to rule out, to sit the bench for a few years in a particular system (such as the west coast offense) and then have a late-career revival a la Rich Gannon or Chris Chandler. But, that almost certainly will not happen in 2007, and probably would not happen until he turned 30 years old.
The Dolphins staff will continue toying with David Carr, and putting it out there that they are "split" over whether to get Green or Carr, basically as a tool to convince Carl Peterson to play ball. I believe they are now convinced that they will need to give more than a 7th round draft choice for Green, but they need Peterson to come off his outlandish 2nd round asking price if they want to have Trent Green in camp some time before June.
This also brings me to another point, and that is that the Dolphins will not feel as desperate about getting Green in camp ASAP, as they did with Joey Harrington in 2006. Harrington was expected to learn a completely new system. Green will be operating the same basic playbook, with the same basic terminology, and near-identical philosophy, as he has been operating since he entered the league. He already knows this playbook better than every Miami Dolphin save for *maybe* Cleo Lemon and Justin Peelle. Furthermore, the Dolphins' quarterbacks coach, Terry Shea, has been Trent Green's quarterbacks coach for five of the last six years, which includes 2006, obviously a very down year for Trent. Shea, having been close to the situation, can easily tell Cameron and Mueller why Green had a down year in 2006, and whether or not they can expect him to bounce back. As if it couldn't get better, Terry Robiskie was the WRs coach in Washington when Green was there, and Cam Cameron was the QBs coach in Washington, which represented Trent's first exposure to the NFL.
In short, Trent Green was made for the Dolphins in a way that few other quarterbacks in the NFL can boast.
But then there is that little caveat about age, and his concussion.
Sound familiar? It should. Daunte Culpepper was supposed to be made for this offense in 2006, save for that little tiny knee caveat. Where this year's example *might* be different is that Mike Mularkey screwed up the whole Linehan system with his ****eyed brand of stewardship. By all means, the Dolphins appear to have a much more premium play caller in place in Cam Cameron.
Yet we still have loads and loads of uncertainty even with Trent Green. This represents the reason why I find talk of cutting Culpepper to be a touch on the unbelievable side. First off, Miami would have to make a VERY significant injury settlement with Daunte, since arguably they worsened his knee in 2005 by playing him too early. Secondly, Trent Green's agent has supposedly already agreed to lower his salary significantly, which kind of sort of rules out the possibility of "two high priced quarterbacks". If they reports are to be believed, Cleo Lemon's 2007 base salary could even outstrip Trent Green's.
Third, if you're shooting craps and need seven the hard way, wouldn't you rather have three rolls than two?
Ah but what about a rookie quarterback? What about Brady Quinn? Well, Miami are definitely looking at rookie quarterbacks. However, I believe this is a totally separate consideration. Randy Mueller is entirely familiar with the idea of bringing four quality quarterbacks to camp. He loves to boast about bringing Aaron Brooks, Jeff Blake, Jake Delhomme, and Marc Bulger to camp once with the Saints.
Furthermore, Cam Cameron is even more intimately familiar with the idea of holding four quarterbacks on the active roster, lest we forget his involvement in the Schottenheimer/Smith feud that saw Cleo kept on as a fourth string quarterback for a year and then traded without permission the following year.
Bottom line is even if you bring Daunte Culpepper, Trent Green, Cleo Lemon, and a rookie quarterback to camp in July, there is at least a fair possibility that you don't come out of camp with even three of them still healthy and in tact. So why wouldn't you go in with all four?
On the other hand, there is at least a halfway decent chance that the Dolphins have an opportunity to trade Daunte Culpepper. This would be a wise choice, even if it does rob us of one of our chances at achieving solid quarterback play in 2007. I have been talking about Oakland as a serious possibility in this regard for quite some time. The Raiders came sniffing at Daunte last year, but were rebuffed by Daunte himself when he told them he was focused on Miami. Al Davis is notorious for liking big-armed quarterbacks that can throw vertically, and getting Daunte in the fold would be a quick and easy way to mend broken fences with Randy Moss. It would allow the Raiders to take the best player in the draft, Calvin Johnson, and mending broken fences with Moss would do two even better, allowing Calvin to play the same Split End position he played at Georgia Tech, and moving Joey Porter to the slot where he (much like Chris Chambers) has had his most success as a pro. The whole idea has to appeal to the Raiders, especially at a low price. If I'm the Dolphins and I can get them to promise me a 4th round draft selection, I'm pulling the trigger.
The Kansas City Chiefs are another possibility, even though they run the same Zampese playbook that Culpepper would be leaving. But, Mike Solari is not one of the big three Zampese students (Martz, Saunders, Turner), and he may or may not be wise enough to know his kind of quarterback when he sees him. At this point, Cameron is by far the most accomplished of the third generation Zampese coordinators. People like Mike Solari (Kansas City) and Steve Fairchild (Buffalo) have yet to make names for themselves.
One possibility that I feel is not talked about enough is the Jacksonville Jaguars. Daunte's preference is to stay in Florida, and Jacksonville's fanbase mostly coincides with his UCF fanbase that made him so popular in Florida. The Raiders and Jags have been off and on about Byron Leftwich for some time now, with Jacksonville pulling a power move announcing Leftwich's starting job in order to maintain his potentially falling trade value. That trade could still get done in some way that involves moving Moss to Jacksonville. Jacksonville would almost naturally look to Culpepper to re-unite the two, bring Daunte to a fanbase that are pretty much already fans of his, and look to have Daunte make some big throws to some big targets with an offensive line that can protect him far better than either Miami or Oakland could.
Issue #2: The Draft
Speaking of quarterback, we might as well get that out of the way first. To Quinn, or not to Quinn?
Well, Quinn is the perfect quarterback for Cam Cameron. There is absolutely no doubt that the Miami coaching staff are in love with him from head to toe. All of the things that Cameron holds dear in a quarterback, Quinn shows in spades. He works harder than any other quarterback in the draft. His competitive spirit is incredible, bordering on neurosis (a good thing, one you could find in most of the great ones). His accuracy is very good, although it tends to break down a little more on vertical throws. He is physically fit (highly impressive 23 bench repetitions, ridiculous pro day measurements for a dropback passer), a notorious gym rat (he and his girlfriend once signed up for a gym membership in the carribean while vacationing there a few weeks, just so they could stay in top shape), and an avid film junky (spent an entire summer scouring every single throw Tom Brady ever made in Weis' offense).
I could go on for hours about Quinn but the bottom line is he just will not be available at #9, and I don't think Miami has the stones to move up far enough to get him. He won't survive Oakland, Detroit, Cleveland, and Tampa. If he did, he'd find a stretch of teams in Arizona, Washington, and Minnesota that would be all too happy to accomodate someone in a trade down that would enable some team to bypass Miami. Of course, Miami could pony up a second round pick to make sure they get him at #5, #6, or #7...but again that would mean Quinn somehow fell beyond Oakland, Detroit, Cleveland, and Tampa.
Other quarterbacks that Miami have shown interest in include Drew Stanton and Tyler Palko. Stanton, many of you know. He has a lot of physical ability and a good record of production spiced up with all too many WTF moments. He's a smart quarterback, reads the field pretty well, but doesn't have the competitive spirit, desire, or ability to come through in big moments that Brady Quinn has. Yes, Brady Quinn has tremendous ability to make big throws in big moments. It is what he was known for in 2005. This whole thing about falling apart in big games is bunk. The Notre Dame offense was overwhelmed in big games by defenses that were way too athletic for Notre Dame's modest weaponry (and especially offensive line) along with a piss poor defense that forced the Notre Dame offense to score a touchdown nearly every possession in order to keep up. In 2006 especially, Stanton seemed to find a way to screw up in some big moments. Worst of all, he doesn't seem to care as much as some other quarterbacks would. Smart, but is he really a student of the game? Fit, but is he really a gym rat? Those are questions Miami would have to satisfactorily answer before they go for him. If his interviews and chalk talk are superbly impressive, do not count out the possibility of trading from #40 back into the first round to get him in the fold.
Palko is an interesting case. He's a small-ish 6'1" quarterback but his leadership, desire, and competitive spirit are all outstanding. His accuracy is good and he is generally safe with the football, broken up with some mistakes. He was a guy that seemed well on his way to stardom at the college level and then seemed like he got snake-bit by Dave Wannstedt's arrival. His first year as a starter he completed over 70 percent of his passes, with 24 TDs and only 7 INTs (a 1.5% rate, excellent) as Pitt went to an 8-4 record and scored 27 points per game.
But, he wasn't a complete quarterback. His completion percentage was inflated by short passes in a less-NFL style offense, as his yards per completion was at a paltry 9.3 average. Dave Wannstedt arrived with Matt Cavanagh, who installed the Zampese offense as run by Norv Turner and the like. In his first season, Palko suffered. His accuracy drew back to 56 percent, his interception rate climbed (although still a healthy 2.6%), and he threw fewer touchdowns in a more run-focused attack (classic Wannstedt, eh?) as the Panthers started out 1-4 and finished 5-6. On the bright side, his yards per completion jumped up to a much more healthy and NFL-translatable 12.4 average.
But this year Palko really settled into the NFL-style offense. The Panthers scored 32 points per game this season. Their late-season slide seemed to have a lot more to do with Davd Wannstedt's defense than the offense, which continued to score points. He completed 68 percent of his passes while keeping his yards per completion up to a 13.0 average, throwing 25 touchdowns, and still a relatively low 2.8% interception rate.
Dave Wannstedt has been really talking up his leadership abilities and there have been a number of teams showing interest. The teams are almost exclusively teams that run the Zampese offense. Palko is a Day 2 prospect because he doesn't have anything outstanding that speaks to you, most especially because his his biggest screwups in 2006 seemed to come against the toughest opponents. What he does have is good accuracy, invaluable experience in the system, and the will and determination to get better. Some guys like that, they do get good enough. Most do not.
Now the big question is what the Dolphins will do at #9. It is impossible to predict absolutely, because much of it depends on who is available. Your best laid logic and rationale can be rendered oboslete by one unexpected pick.
Last year, Boomer, KB21, and I had a fair amount of luck predicting the Jason Allen pick simply by following some connections. In the end, all three of us were tempted to do a bit of wishful thinking on the prediction, choosing the guys we wanted instead of the guys we actually thought Miami would take. Lawson was a sexy pick, but Allen was where all the connections were.
This year the same kind of connections analysis points toward WR Ted Ginn Jr. of Ohio State. Cam Cameron and staff have met with Ted twice now, with significant chalk talk sessions being had at both meetings. As per a number of players that have spoken with Miami, the staff have taken to drilling their interviews extensively on their playbooks, asking them to draw up as many plays as they can remember in a timed period, ostensibly 60 seconds. The reason I bring this up is because Ted Ginn Jr., though he does not have a reputation as the sharpest knife in the drawer, grew up the son of one of Ohio's most successful high school football coaches. He has also played both ways, was the #1 cornerback recruit in the nation in high school, converted to WR in college. His background would give him significant advantages over some other players in any chalk talk session with Cam Cameron and the staff. Additionally, Cam Cameron first met Ted Ginn Jr. when he was in junior high school. It has gone unadvertised, but Cameron may have a relationship with Ted Sr. What we do know is that Chris Chambers and Ted Ginn Jr. have a close relationship from when they lived down the street from each other. Ted said that Chris is like an older brother to him. There were reports that they are actually first cousins, but that is unconfirmed.
Couple the chalk talk advantages with Randy Mueller's very extensive history of drafting receivers with speed, such as another Ohio State product, Joey Galloway, and you have one prospect that marries the two different, and sometimes conflicting, preferences of both Randy Mueller and Cam Cameron. With both guys kicking off what they hope to be a long run in a complicated and difficult relationship as General Manager and Head Coach, neither of which has final say authority (remember all moves must be agreed-upon by both men, with ties broken by Bryan Wiedmeier), I would look for them both to gravitate towards a pick that could help exemplify this complicated equal-power relationship working in action. That's my opinion.
From an offensive standpoint, Cameron has noted that he would like to build from the center-outward. That means a quarterback, runningback, fullback, and center. They're working on the quarterback issue now with Trent Green, Culpepper, and Lemon, and possibly a draft quarterback depending on who is available where. The fullback they got in not only Cory Schlesinger, but my feeling is Kyle Eckel could make the roster as well. The runningback is obviously taken care of with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. While I would not count on Rex Hadnot being long for center, that position is not destined to be taken care of with the #9 pick. There is no denying that the offense needs a spark, however...especially in light of Randy McMichael's release. I believe it is well-advertised by now that Chris Chambers' best production seems to have come when he has been allowed to move around the field and especially into the slot position. Getting a receiver that can play Chambers' Flanker position, even as a rookie, allows Chris to get into positions where he can do more danger despite our weak offensive line.
Many have suggested taking Levi Brown at the #9 spot. He has been very good at Penn State, and he has loads of experience, a tremendous attitude and the will to accept coaching in order to get better. He has good size and physicals. He is, however, lacking in the athleticism department and though he slides well, there is significant question as to whether he has the quick feet to play the position. For a guy with poor hand placement that needs improving through coaching, he would need to have exceptional feet in order to survive as a rookie left tackle in 2007. To me, there is too much uncertainty over his ability to play the left tackle position to put a position value premium on him as a prospect.
The Dolphins could also use a nice re-load on defense in this draft. As is well-advertised by now, the defense has some well-aged parts on it. The front office did not make a special effort to get younger for the sake of getting younger, and that could mean we begin re-stocking with draft picks, including the #9 pick. Adam Carriker is a beast of a defensive end, perfect for this defense in every way but one...that being the fact that we've got Matt Roth in his third year off a second round draft pick, and Vonnie Holliday on a brand new four-year deal. I have him as one of the top 6 talents in the draft, nonetheless. Alan Branch has the potential to be a dominant 3-technique in this league but he has the stamina and physique of a guy that will end up at the 1-technique (pretty much a nose tackle, for all intents and purposes) because he can't seem to get that perfect athlete's body and stamina.
Leon Hall and Darrelle Revis are the best two corners in the draft. Revis doesn't have the experience going against top flight receivers that Hall does, but he also doesn't have the tape Hall does of getting burnt deep by Dwayne Jarrett and Ted Ginn Jr. Revis is a monster tackler, very physical, a leader in the secondary, and well-versed in Dave Wannstedt's brand of press man coverage. Hall has better experience, and better ball skills. They are both about as athletic as each other, in fact two of the top three most athletic corners in the draft based on a size-weighted basis (Marcus McCauley is #1, no surprises there).
Many have suggested that LaRon Landry would be an excellent pick in the secondary for the Dolphins. I do not share this position. First off, I believe Reggie Nelson to be a better pure safety prospect, as he has the same wheels as Landry but has been a much more natural intimidator and more importantly, ball hawk. Many believe that taking Landry (or Nelson) has the potential to fix our problems at safety as well as corner, by moving Jason Allen back to corner. I say this has the potential to weaken two positions, because Allen has already have a tough time learning one position, and this was true at Tennessee as well. To move him to corner would give us a rookie at safety, and a veritable rookie at corner as well. That does not help as much in 2007. Taking Hall or Revis would help the team more in 2007 by allowing Allen to resume what he has learned at safety, where he showed tremendous explosion toward the ball late in the year.
Pat Willis is not likely to be a popular pick at #9 because of what it would mean for Zach Thomas. But the bottom line is he is the rare kind of prospect that you look for in the top 10 of the draft, and he could help us re-load an important position that could go cold any year now when Zach Thomas retires. Many believe that he would play a year from the bench. This is not true. Immediately, he would likely start at weak side linebacker over Channing Crowder. It would seem a waste to put Channing on the bench, but he would not stay there very long. Either he, or Willis, would be Zach's eventual successor. Both could man the middle for a great many years, once Zach retires. For those that are concerned with 2007, Zach would likely come off the field on passing downs and in nickel packages. His coverage skills are weakening a bit, which I think we can all agree on. Willis and Crowder would come in on those downs.
Overall when it comes to the players we could pick at #9, Carriker, Willis, Branch, Hall, Revis, Landry, Nelson, Brown, or Ginn Jr., the ones I find to have the most ability to affect this team in 2007 would be Hall, Revis, and Ginn Jr. Are those the best players of the bunch? No. I have Carriker a clear best player among the group of possibilities, but I am not sure Miami agree with me.
Maybe I have a bit of a junior high mentality, but when it comes to which of Hall, Revis, and Ginn Jr. I believe the Dolphins should pick, I think of them matching up against each other. When Ted Ginn Jr. faced Michigan in 2005, he caught 9 passes. When he faced them in 2006, he caught for 100+ yards and a long touchdown that was caught directly on Leon Hall in coverage. Hall ran a 4.39 at the Combine, and Ginn Jr. made him look slow. He has also made Thorpe Award winner (given to the best defensive back in college ball) Aaron Ross look silly in press man coverage for a touchdown against Texas. Ted Ginn Jr. could clearly win his matchup with Leon Hall, and I do not think it a far stretch of the imagination to see him winning a matchup on Darrelle Revis.
I have never seen a player as functionally fast as Ted Ginn Jr. in pads, on the field. I was not watching college ball when Deion played, nor was I watching when Barry Sanders played. What makes Ted Ginn Jr. so special is his ability to go zero to 60 mph at the drop of a hat, and his ability to change directions at top speeds. He has a bigger range of swivel at top speeds than your normal "fast" players that end up tracked when they are going at their top speeds. Ginn ends up looking untracked, to where he can make sharp cuts at speeds normally not possible. I have seen full 90 degree cuts that make your jaw drop and harken back to the heyday of O.J. Simpson at USC. This does not just make him a threat as a punt returner and kick returner (although he would immediately become the most dangerous return man in the NFL outside of Devin Hester, and maybe not even excepting him). This makes him a threat on offense, because he has a natural feel for extending his angles and busting through them. I've also not seen a player as light as him break as many tackles as he regularly does because of his great balance and quickness. It is simple, if you're going to make a square tackle on him, he has such great quickness as to make your square tackle attempt more of a glancing blow by the time you reach him. You must wrap up, you can't arm tackle him. I never thought I'd say that about a guy that is only a little over 170 pounds, but it is absolutely true. If any of you ever get the time, search on YouTube for Ted Ginn Jr.'s high school highlight video. If you thought "the tape" from Reggie Bush was impressive, get a load of Ted Ginn Jr. He will make a dozen cuts on any one play, running around and by high school players as if they are pee-wee players. I haven't seen stuff like that since the last time I played with Bo Jackson on Tecmo Super Bowl.
As for his receiving skills, which get commonly knocked, he is raw, but he does not lack potential in this regard. There is NOTHING in his running to suggest that he has stiff hips, or an inability to run precise routes. As a coach's son, he has an understanding of many sides of the game, and the ability to know what each part of the offense should be doing. The fact of the matter was that at OSU, they did not ask him to run a wide variety of routes, so it isn't completely his fault that he doesn't run a wide variety of routes with precision. Torry Holt rounded off his routes for the first couple of years in St. Louis. Martz did not care, so long as he ran and caught at top speeds. The same may be true with Ginn Jr. If you are a Courtney Taylor and you run a 4.5, have average athleticism, it is a little bit more important to run precise routes and be able to do everything really well to make yourself dangerous, than it is if you are Ted Ginn Jr. and you could smoke just about any corner that attempts to play some classic press man on you.
As for his hands, I believe he has tremendous hands and ability to focus on the ball, especially considering the speeds at which he is commonly running when he makes those catches. I haven't noticed hands as a problem for Ginn, nor have I noticed them being particularly exceptional like on Robert Meachem. Even in high school as a corner, he had the ability to high-point the ball and make fantastic catches. In fact, he is such an accomplished corner that he could even be considered for two-way action, especially in a pinch. If he fails as a receiver, you could put him on defense and still end up with one of the best corners in football.
So again, this all comes back to the connections. Cameron familiar with the kid himself from meeting him in Junior High. He's familiar with his father, one of the best high school coaches in the state of Ohio. If Cameron decides to hit up any of his old Michigan connections, they'll likely tell him just how difficult it was to handle Ted Ginn Jr. His background suggests that he can probably pass the chalk test. His speed suggests that he easily passes Mueller's speed tests. He's "like a brother" to Chris Chambers. He has the most potential to impact the team in 2007. He can play Flanker while Chambers moves inside. He can return punts and kicks where Az Hakim is the only punt returner on the roster, and Miami has no experienced kick returner. One pick, one player, and he can impact the team at four positions. He can play Flanker, he can help us move Chambers into the slot, he can return punts, and he can return kicks.
For the rest of the draft, Miami have been paying attention to a lot of offensive line, especially inside offensive line. Andy Alleman is high on radar. Adam Koets is a tackle that is high on radar, went through a chalk talk session with the coaches. Brandon Frye is most likely high on radar. Aaron Sears definitely is. Cameron Stephenson has been on radar since before Saban left. Hudson Houck was personally there to work out Kyle Cook. I would bet my left arm that they have their eyes on Samson Satele and Doug Free. James Marten has been under watch, as well. Dane Uperesa drew Houck's personal attention. Rumors have linked us with Ryan Harris. The real attention-getter is our interest in Joe Staley. Houck was there to view his workout, to the best of my knowledge, and Mueller has noted how impressive Staley is in interview. You could see Miami trade back into the bottom of the first round to get hold of either Staley, or like I said before Drew Stanton (supposing he passes Cameron's strenuous interview and chalk tests).
Mueller continues to pay special attention to outside rushers as well. One lesser known guy to keep an eye on in this regard would be Xzavie Jackson. Miami have taken a keen interest in Greg Olsen, again another guy to keep an eye out for us to possibly trade back into the first round if he falls too far. You have to keep an eye on guys like Paul Soliai, LaRon Harris, and Antonio Johnson as possible nose tackle types. Soliai in particular would be a first rounder if he hadn't been an offensive tackle for much of his time at Utah. Teams are worried about character issues (suspension), and that he only has one year of starting. Otherwise he's a physical freak of a phenom, and he doesn't play like a character problem. He doesn't perform like one. He plays like he's worked hard to develop that kind of stamina and physical ability. Sure, it could be natural, but if it is, that is even more scary.
Keep an eye on Rudy Sylvan, a big blocking TE from Ohio with tons of measurable explosion. Could move to the offensive line a la Kris Dielman. Also, the coaches have been on Brannon Condren, another physical freak safety/corner. He was a returner in high school, has the juggernaut measurables to be tried there in the pros. Miami have been on Chris Henry's case too, he could be a late round pick for us if he falls that far.
Back on the quarterback front, a guy I really like and believe to the be the third-best quarterback in the draft is John Beck of BYU. Heck of an arm on him, great production record, leader, hard worker, extremely accurate, athletic. Jeff Rowe is a good prospect as well. Big, tall guy with good arm and accuracy, played in a bit of a gimmick offense at Nevada.
