KC Joyner did a pretty nice job of breaking down the performances of Asante Samuel and Randall Gay at ESPN yesterday. Now unfortunately, I saw quite a bit of the Pats this past season and whilst I thought Samuel had a decent year - not great, as stated in my 'Buyer Beware: Asante Samuel' thread - I thought Gay really regressed. But the numbers say something entirely different. Samuel's 41.3 success percentage - the percentage of plays a player does something successful with the ball - and 7.4 YPA last season were both steps back from his 2006 totals in those categories (7.0 YPA and 48.8 success percentage). His six interceptions were also down from 2006, when he posted career high of 10, and three of his 2007 picks came against backup quarterbacks.
According to Joyner, Gay had a superb 5.8 YPA last season and allowed zero completions on the seven vertical passes thrown his way. He also looked at Marcus Trufant's numbers, which showed that of the 103 balls thrown his way, 55 were completed, with 4 scores, 6 picks and a 6.4 YPA. But that completion percentage is 53.4 which is relatively high. Half the balls thrown at Trufant were completed. Now, without the benefit of having all the stats, it's hard to work out where that would stand in terms of the elite NFL corners, but it would be nice to break it down against the figures for Nnamdi Asomugha, Leigh Bodden, Rashean Mathis, Ike Taylor, Quentin Jammer, etc. To my mind - and I may well be wrong - that number sits a little high for me. Perhaps Fineas might know?
Anyway, enough rambling. I thought I'd take a look at the top 10 cornerbacks in the draft and see how they worked out last season in this statistical category. For me at the moment they would be:
1. Leodis McKelvin
2. Antoine Cason
3. Mike Jenkins
4. Dominique Rodgers Cromartie
5. Terrell Thomas
6. Tracy Porter
7. Justin King
8. Aqib Talib
9. Dwight Lowery
10. Reggie Smith (although I think Reggie Smith is ultimitely better suited to playing safety, given his abilities in run support and his ball skills against his lack of timed speed).
Unfortunately, it's a bit of an inexact science as I don't have the final numbers for Talib and King. I thought about using King's sophomore season scores, but essentially that's cheating and he had a stronger season in 2006 than in 2007, although as he says himself, his season was a lot better than people gave him credit for. But when I get his and Talib's numbers, I'll add them.
Looking at the figures, what stands out immediately for me is that Cason and Terrell Thomas excel in yards per reception against them and those two again stood out when it comes to allowing completions when the ball comes in their direction. Now, these figures need to come with a grain of salt because you're relying on the accuracy of the QB that's throwing the passes. But you could make the argument that the coverage was so tight that the QB HAD to take evasive or in this case, inaccurate action. Thomas' score of under 30% is very, very strong whilst Cason's is similary hugely impressive. It's a great thing to say that 'so and so hardly got thrown on', but actually you can do a pretty good job of breaking it down when you look at the percentages. Based on this and the way I feel about him anyway and have done for 2 seasons, if he can eliminate any doubts in my mind on his timed speed with a good time next week in Indianapolis, I might be inclined to put Antoine Cason up at number 1 on my CB board. I don't think he'll be the #1 CB drafted, but I think he's going to be very good. And whilst every day we say "he'd be great at pick 32", you have to feel strongly and similarly about Cason.
What also stands out for me is that Reggie Smith has to be looked upon as a viable candidate for Miami. A strong safety who moved to CB, his numbers are very impressive indeed. He didn't give up a touchdown all season and as a four year starter in high school at SS, who was a Freshman All American at the spot and played a further 9 games at SS as a sophomore. He's 6-1 and 198lbs, with room to grow and is a very good ST player, as well as being a good kid.
Anyway, here's the numbers:
Leodis McKelvin - Troy:
Had 70 passes targeted into his territory, as the opposition caught 34 of those tosses (48.57%) for 407 yards (11.97-yard average per completion/5.81-yard average per attempt), no touchdowns and eleven first downs, as he prevented the receivers from getting to 25 throws while breaking up eleven others (nine deflections/two picks)
Antoine Cason - Arizona:
Cason deflected a team-high fourteen passes. with five interceptions. Of the 73 passes targeted to his area, the opposition caught 23 (31.5%) for 258 yards (11.2 avg), two touchdowns and twelve first downs (held the opposition to 3.53 yards per pass attempt).
Mike Jenkins - South Florida:
Had 68 passes targeted into his area, as the opposition caught 28 of those throws (41.18%) for 348 yards (12.43 avg) and three touchdowns…Defended fifteen passes and prevented his main pass coverage assignment from getting to 25 other tosses.
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie - Tennessee State:
Deflected eleven passes and intercepted two others. Of the sixty passes targeted into his area, he held the opposition to 22 receptions (36.67%) for 262 yards (11.91 avg per completion), three touchdowns and an average of 4.37 yards per pass attempt.
Terrell Thomas - USC:
Thomas deflected seven passes four interception returns (11.0 avg). He had 57 passes targeted into his area, holding the opposition to seventeen catches for 149 yards (8.76 yards per catch) and one touchdown. Only 29.82% of those throws were caught and he allowed just 2.61 yards per pass attempt
Tracy Porter - Indiana:
Porter made six interceptions and deflected four passes. Opponents caught 53 of 91 passes (58.24%) targeted into Porter's territory, good for 679 yards (12.81-yard average per completion/7.46-yard average per attempt) and five touchdowns.
Justin King - Penn State: Numbers not available.
Aqib Talib - Kansas: Numbers not available.
Dwight Lowery - San Jose State:
Dwight deflected seven passes and ranked tied for second in the conference with four interceptions. He had 60 passes targeted into his area, as the opposition caught 23 of those throws (38.33%) for a total of 404 yards (15.54 avg) and a pair of touchdowns.
Reggie Smith - Oklahoma:
Reggie had 3 interceptions whilst deflecting eleven passes. The opposition completed just 21-of-60 passes targeted into his area (35.0%) for 231 yards (11.0 yards per completion/3.85 yards per pass attempt), as he allowed no touchdowns all season and held his main pass coverage assignment to no catches in the North Texas and Miami contests.
According to Joyner, Gay had a superb 5.8 YPA last season and allowed zero completions on the seven vertical passes thrown his way. He also looked at Marcus Trufant's numbers, which showed that of the 103 balls thrown his way, 55 were completed, with 4 scores, 6 picks and a 6.4 YPA. But that completion percentage is 53.4 which is relatively high. Half the balls thrown at Trufant were completed. Now, without the benefit of having all the stats, it's hard to work out where that would stand in terms of the elite NFL corners, but it would be nice to break it down against the figures for Nnamdi Asomugha, Leigh Bodden, Rashean Mathis, Ike Taylor, Quentin Jammer, etc. To my mind - and I may well be wrong - that number sits a little high for me. Perhaps Fineas might know?
Anyway, enough rambling. I thought I'd take a look at the top 10 cornerbacks in the draft and see how they worked out last season in this statistical category. For me at the moment they would be:
1. Leodis McKelvin
2. Antoine Cason
3. Mike Jenkins
4. Dominique Rodgers Cromartie
5. Terrell Thomas
6. Tracy Porter
7. Justin King
8. Aqib Talib
9. Dwight Lowery
10. Reggie Smith (although I think Reggie Smith is ultimitely better suited to playing safety, given his abilities in run support and his ball skills against his lack of timed speed).
Unfortunately, it's a bit of an inexact science as I don't have the final numbers for Talib and King. I thought about using King's sophomore season scores, but essentially that's cheating and he had a stronger season in 2006 than in 2007, although as he says himself, his season was a lot better than people gave him credit for. But when I get his and Talib's numbers, I'll add them.
Looking at the figures, what stands out immediately for me is that Cason and Terrell Thomas excel in yards per reception against them and those two again stood out when it comes to allowing completions when the ball comes in their direction. Now, these figures need to come with a grain of salt because you're relying on the accuracy of the QB that's throwing the passes. But you could make the argument that the coverage was so tight that the QB HAD to take evasive or in this case, inaccurate action. Thomas' score of under 30% is very, very strong whilst Cason's is similary hugely impressive. It's a great thing to say that 'so and so hardly got thrown on', but actually you can do a pretty good job of breaking it down when you look at the percentages. Based on this and the way I feel about him anyway and have done for 2 seasons, if he can eliminate any doubts in my mind on his timed speed with a good time next week in Indianapolis, I might be inclined to put Antoine Cason up at number 1 on my CB board. I don't think he'll be the #1 CB drafted, but I think he's going to be very good. And whilst every day we say "he'd be great at pick 32", you have to feel strongly and similarly about Cason.
What also stands out for me is that Reggie Smith has to be looked upon as a viable candidate for Miami. A strong safety who moved to CB, his numbers are very impressive indeed. He didn't give up a touchdown all season and as a four year starter in high school at SS, who was a Freshman All American at the spot and played a further 9 games at SS as a sophomore. He's 6-1 and 198lbs, with room to grow and is a very good ST player, as well as being a good kid.
Anyway, here's the numbers:
Leodis McKelvin - Troy:
Had 70 passes targeted into his territory, as the opposition caught 34 of those tosses (48.57%) for 407 yards (11.97-yard average per completion/5.81-yard average per attempt), no touchdowns and eleven first downs, as he prevented the receivers from getting to 25 throws while breaking up eleven others (nine deflections/two picks)
Antoine Cason - Arizona:
Cason deflected a team-high fourteen passes. with five interceptions. Of the 73 passes targeted to his area, the opposition caught 23 (31.5%) for 258 yards (11.2 avg), two touchdowns and twelve first downs (held the opposition to 3.53 yards per pass attempt).
Mike Jenkins - South Florida:
Had 68 passes targeted into his area, as the opposition caught 28 of those throws (41.18%) for 348 yards (12.43 avg) and three touchdowns…Defended fifteen passes and prevented his main pass coverage assignment from getting to 25 other tosses.
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie - Tennessee State:
Deflected eleven passes and intercepted two others. Of the sixty passes targeted into his area, he held the opposition to 22 receptions (36.67%) for 262 yards (11.91 avg per completion), three touchdowns and an average of 4.37 yards per pass attempt.
Terrell Thomas - USC:
Thomas deflected seven passes four interception returns (11.0 avg). He had 57 passes targeted into his area, holding the opposition to seventeen catches for 149 yards (8.76 yards per catch) and one touchdown. Only 29.82% of those throws were caught and he allowed just 2.61 yards per pass attempt
Tracy Porter - Indiana:
Porter made six interceptions and deflected four passes. Opponents caught 53 of 91 passes (58.24%) targeted into Porter's territory, good for 679 yards (12.81-yard average per completion/7.46-yard average per attempt) and five touchdowns.
Justin King - Penn State: Numbers not available.
Aqib Talib - Kansas: Numbers not available.
Dwight Lowery - San Jose State:
Dwight deflected seven passes and ranked tied for second in the conference with four interceptions. He had 60 passes targeted into his area, as the opposition caught 23 of those throws (38.33%) for a total of 404 yards (15.54 avg) and a pair of touchdowns.
Reggie Smith - Oklahoma:
Reggie had 3 interceptions whilst deflecting eleven passes. The opposition completed just 21-of-60 passes targeted into his area (35.0%) for 231 yards (11.0 yards per completion/3.85 yards per pass attempt), as he allowed no touchdowns all season and held his main pass coverage assignment to no catches in the North Texas and Miami contests.
