I WAS READING ESPN MAGAZINE AND SAW THIS INTERESTING ARTICLE....
I WILL GIVE SOME INFO from it.....take it for what it's worth.
"DRAFT DODGE" by Eddie Matz
All jacked up because your team's got the pick of the litter in this year's NFL draft? You shouldn't be, at least according to world-renowned economist Richard Thaler. The U. of Chicago prof (and rabid Raiders fan) has co-authored a 62-page paper that takes a Moneyball-esque look at the draft-day market. The conclusion: high picks are not all they're cracked up to be.
"The top pick is worth a lot," says Duke economist Cade Massey, Thaler's co-author. "But not nearly as much as everyone thinks." The two academics analyzed NFL picks over the past decade-factoring in draft position, salary and pro performance-and their findings are further proof (sigh) of Bill Belichick's genius. It's a complicated formula, but Thaler and Massey assure all) or at least The American Economic Review, to which they have submitted their paper) that NFL GMs consistently overvalue early-round picks. That is, teams pay too much to first-rounders in comparison to the bang for the buck they routinely get from lower selections. Most teams, it seems, would be better off trading early picks for multiple second- and third rounders. "Our research indicated that the top half of the second round is the sweet spot," Massey says.
And no spot is more sugary than No. 43. According to the study, the pick that's recently produced such NFL standouts as Muhsin Muhammad, Corey Dillon and Julius Jones gives owners a higher return on their dollars on average than any other draft position.
So who's got the hot spot this year? Ironically, it's Giants GM Ernie Accorsi, who many observers think overpaid for Eli Manning last year by forking over 2004 first- and third-rounders plus first- and fifth-rounders in 2005 to San Diego. "For that move to be worth it," says Thaler, "Eli will have to end up being even better than his brother."
Accorsi, for one, disagrees with the study's take, insisting that there's no such thing as overvaluing top picks. "Sure you have some high-stakes misses," says the GM who made John Elway his first-round pick as colts GM in 1983. "But you also have guys that end up leading a team to five Super Bowls. It's impossible to overpay for that."
And while nobody's confusing Aaron Rodgers, Alex Smith or anyone else in this year's draft class with Elway, Thaler supects that teams like the Niners and Dolphins (owners of the top two picks) will find a seller's market come draft day should they decide to trade down. His advice? Do it. Now. "If someone is willing to give you the world," Thaler says, "by all means take it."
__________________
I WILL GIVE SOME INFO from it.....take it for what it's worth.
"DRAFT DODGE" by Eddie Matz
All jacked up because your team's got the pick of the litter in this year's NFL draft? You shouldn't be, at least according to world-renowned economist Richard Thaler. The U. of Chicago prof (and rabid Raiders fan) has co-authored a 62-page paper that takes a Moneyball-esque look at the draft-day market. The conclusion: high picks are not all they're cracked up to be.
"The top pick is worth a lot," says Duke economist Cade Massey, Thaler's co-author. "But not nearly as much as everyone thinks." The two academics analyzed NFL picks over the past decade-factoring in draft position, salary and pro performance-and their findings are further proof (sigh) of Bill Belichick's genius. It's a complicated formula, but Thaler and Massey assure all) or at least The American Economic Review, to which they have submitted their paper) that NFL GMs consistently overvalue early-round picks. That is, teams pay too much to first-rounders in comparison to the bang for the buck they routinely get from lower selections. Most teams, it seems, would be better off trading early picks for multiple second- and third rounders. "Our research indicated that the top half of the second round is the sweet spot," Massey says.
And no spot is more sugary than No. 43. According to the study, the pick that's recently produced such NFL standouts as Muhsin Muhammad, Corey Dillon and Julius Jones gives owners a higher return on their dollars on average than any other draft position.
So who's got the hot spot this year? Ironically, it's Giants GM Ernie Accorsi, who many observers think overpaid for Eli Manning last year by forking over 2004 first- and third-rounders plus first- and fifth-rounders in 2005 to San Diego. "For that move to be worth it," says Thaler, "Eli will have to end up being even better than his brother."
Accorsi, for one, disagrees with the study's take, insisting that there's no such thing as overvaluing top picks. "Sure you have some high-stakes misses," says the GM who made John Elway his first-round pick as colts GM in 1983. "But you also have guys that end up leading a team to five Super Bowls. It's impossible to overpay for that."
And while nobody's confusing Aaron Rodgers, Alex Smith or anyone else in this year's draft class with Elway, Thaler supects that teams like the Niners and Dolphins (owners of the top two picks) will find a seller's market come draft day should they decide to trade down. His advice? Do it. Now. "If someone is willing to give you the world," Thaler says, "by all means take it."
__________________
