ckparrothead
Premium Member
Tackle Position
There have been speculations that the drafting of Joe Toledo has implications on the progress of Anthony Alabi.
I just want to outline for people that this would be the wrong direction to take your line of thinking.
There may indeed be some implications at the tackle position for this move, but they do not lie with Anthony Alabi.
The man who should be feeling the heat from this move is Vernon Carey.
1. Position Part I. Joe Toledo is not a straight up tackle prospect. He is a tackle or guard prospect. This is an important thing to note. He's not an ideal tackle prospect for Hudson Houck. His arms are just under 33 inches long.
2. Position Part II. What kind of player is Vernon Carey? "He can play guard or tackle". Anthony Alabi is a strict tackle prospect. Do you replace a strict tackle prospect with a guy that "can play guard or tackle"?
3. Previous Regime. Who is the only tackle on the roster not to be chosen by this coaching regime? Vernon Carey. That's a big factor, not to be underestimated.
4. Collecting athletes. There's a reason we are collecting tackles. They are the best athletes on the offensive line. The pool of offensive tackles is where you are going to find the best offensive lineman. You aren't often going to find a super duper guard prospect that didn't play some tackle in college. Jeno James is a tackle convert. Heck we moved Wade Smith from tackle to center. Max Jean-Gilles played tackle at Georgia. Willie Colon played tackle at Hofstra. So why do we have a million tackles on the roster? Because they are the building blocks from which we are going to field the five best linemen possible! Nick Saban recently confirmed exactly what I've been saying at his post-draft press conference:
5. Profiling Part I: Intelligence. There has been some speculation, at one time from myself as well I believe, that Carey fits the profile of a Houck guy. He doesn't, and I think that's important to note. We've seen the guys that Houck seems to want on his offensive line, especially at tackle. He's a believer in intelligent guys with quick feet, long reach and big frame. That's not Vernon Carey. He's not very intelligent. It isn't just that he got an 18 on the wonderlic where Houck guys such as Alabi, Roos, Toledo, and Shelton scored in the high 20's or low 30's. Carey was rumored to be having a real hard time absorbing the playbook and position in 2004, which is pretty notable because the playbook for a tackle isn't exactly rocket science.
6. Profiling Part II: Frame. Carey's got a nice frame and good power. He has this going in his favor. But does he have the reach to be an ideal tackle? His reach came in under 33 inches. We know from statements by Houck himself that "either you need to have long reach or you need to have quick feet...and if you've got both you can be special". I'll get to the quick feet in a moment. Carey is just over 6'4" and has about a 32.8 inch reach. As a comparison, Alabi's got a 36.8 inch reach. Now alone, reach isn't enough to turn a guy off to a tackle prospect.
7. Profiling Part III: Agility. But in conjunction with feet, we've got a statement from Hudson Houck himself that is easily as significant as Nick Saban's statement about 5'9" cornerbacks. Remember the statement, EITHER you have to have long reach, OR you have to have quick feet. Does Carey have quick feet? No. He doesn't. You can see on film that feet aren't exactly his strong point, and it's been talked about since he was drafted that he might not have the feet to handle speed rushers. This is supported by the results of his UM pro day. At 6'4" and 330 lbs he ran a 5.33 in the 40. His short shuttle was a poor 5.0 seconds. His cone was 8.1 seconds. As a comparison, Michael Roos had a 4.5 second shuttle, Toledo and Alabi had 4.6 second shuttles, and Shelton had a 4.7 second shuttle.
8. Guard?. The coaches briefly tried Carey at guard. What they saw made them move Carey back to tackle within about 2 or 3 days. His strengths were clearly in pass protection and he was a bit of a pedestrian run blocker...which isn't exactly your ideal right guard prospect.
9. One Year Wonders. Damion McIntosh and Mike Pearson. They are the definition of "chopping wood" as Saban calls it. You just have to gather as much talent as you can within the reasonable confines of the salary cap and then let them battle it out to see who is best for 2006. How can you compare guys like Shelton, Toledo, Alabi, and Carey with guys like Pearson and McIntosh? The previous four will be signed for at least the next 3 years. Pearson and McIntosh are here on one year deals...both are safety blankets. Seth McKinney belongs in this group as well. Let's fast forward a year and take a look at our roster. We've got Anthony Alabi, LJ Shelton, Joe Toledo, and Vernon Carey. At guard we've got Jeno James, Rex Hadnot, and Wade Smith. What exactly about that situation strikes anyone as over-investment? This would be especially true if Vernon Carey's days are numbered as I suspect they are.
I like Vernon Carey. I do. He impressed me when he played left tackle and I wrote a series of threads about his performance at that position and some of you may remember them. Sometimes the coaches don't think the same way you do though, and you have to come to grips with the reality that they're not as high on someone as you are. After all, if they were as high on Reggie McNeal as I was, they'd have made him their 3rd or 4th round pick instead of Derek Hagan or Joe Toledo.
Quarterback Position
Keith and I argued a bit about this before the draft. I had been speculating for quite a long time that our uncharacteristic loafing around about the quarterback position meant a vote of confidence in Cleo Lemon. Others argued that all our toying around with other quarterbacks meant the opposite.
But where others saw nothing but excuses where it concerns the quarterback position and not being able to bring in other more pedigreed possible backups....I saw a lack of will to bring those guys in. We could have gone all out to try and bring a different QB in to be our backup. Do I know we would be successful? No. But it isn't hard to see that we didn't try very hard.
The draft came and went and again, we didn't grab anyone. Some had been speculating we were a lock to try and take Omar Jacobs in round 4. Round 4 came and went and we grabbed Toledo instead. Round 3 came and went and we let Brodie Croyle go in favor of Derek Hagan. Then after the draft they did what I speculated they'd do, grabbed Justin Holland as a UDFA. Later, Saban would have the following to say:
So it seems pretty clear we're going to take four quarterbacks to camp and once Harrington is under contract, they will decide if Berlin or Holland will be that fourth guy.
So what does this mean for Cleo? Well, the coaches have refused to go out of the way doing anything that would force him off the roster. They didn't even talk to Sage Rosenfels about coming back. They didn't draft a QB. They didn't sign a bunch of guys. And now they've been locked into a dangerous staredown for Joey Harrington. I mean, how do our coaches know that Cleveland's sweeping into the picture on draft day would not have resulted in Harrington's being shipped off to Cleveland? And now the likelihood is that Harrington doesn't start learning the playbook until JUNE. And, this is a guy we're expecting to come in and start games for us this year in 2006 because we know that Daunte will misss a few games with soreness and swelling in the knee.
What if Joey doesn't take very well to the playbook and doesn't play satisfactorily? Basically, there are too many "what ifs" for this position, unless we're highly comfortable with the "worst case scenario".
We can only conclude that Cleo Lemon is not roster fodder at all. He wasn't an "afterthought" and the most ridiculous conclusion I've ever heard is that we paid the San Diego Chargers a 6th round pick to take AJ Feeley's salary off our hands. This is a guy we felt high enough on to pay a valuable draft pick, and our actions throughout the off season imply that he's done enough in practice to SUGGEST to us that he may be ready some time soon to get bumped from #3 on depth chart, to #2 on the depth chart.
Wide Receiver Position
Derek Hagan was the most productive and experienced wide receiver in the draft. He has had 1000+ yards three years in a row. He started 3 games as a freshman and caught 32 passes for 405 yards...was Freshman All Pac-10 and broke the school's freshman records.
Aside from Santonio Holmes, he might be the WR that is most ready for rookie action in the entire draft. He's legendary for his work habits and his film study.
The important thing to note is he's GOT the physical measurables to get open in the NFL. He has the agility, he has the deep speed. He's got a 40 inch vertical. It was no coincidence that he may have been the best receiver in the entire history of the Pac-10. He's a 4.4 speed guy, with a 4.45 timed at the Combine (which makes his time instantly legit). A lot has been made of his 1.50 or 1.52 time in the 10 yard split. That is also impressive. His 4.07 shuttle time though was about what you would hope to see from a 4.45 speedster in that the differential of 0.38 seconds is pretty good especially for a WR/DB type. He never registered a cone drill score. The athleticism model I run gave him a 9 out of 10 final grade.
So why did we focus on THIS guy? Was it that other guys we wanted were gone? No, I don't buy that. We passed on Santonio Holmes AND Chad Jackson in the first round. We almost certainly came to the conclusion that they were not worth our first round selection. Saban admits Allen was the only player left among those dozen guys they had decided would be worth the selection at #16.
Wes Welker I think is the reason. We wanted a guy that could contribute immediately. I love Wes Welker and I am sure they do too, but again NFL production isn't about popularity contests or fan favorites. It is about talent and the physics of the game. The bottom line is Wes is a midget, and now he's a midget on crutches after his surgery.
We went this entire off season without grabbing a guy that we could count on to be the #3 WR. Kelly Campbell is another speed bump, like Pearson. He's got experience with Daunte Culpepper, but he spent all of 2005 out of football.
We were one injury away from having to start either Wes Welker or Kelly Campbell on the outside. That should scare you. It scares me and it certainly scared them. They will rest assured now knowing they've got a 6'2" and 210 pound 4.4 speedster with 4 years of starting experience and a fantastic work ethic ready to start on the outside if an injury happens.
But watch out in 2006 for Hagan. I'm taking all these signs to mean that Hagan is going to be given every opportunity to be this year's Chris Chambers. He's as polished as they come with the exception of run blocking, which is understandable coming from the Pac-10.
Devin Aromashodu was a value selection. He was probably the most physically compelling big school prospect left when we picked. Like I said in other threads my athleticism model resulted in a grade of 10 out of 10 among the WRs in the draft. Miles Austin shared this grade as well but he was a small school guy and as Keith has pointed out, Saban hasn't shown a whole lot of tendency to go with small school guys. Fred Evans was a first. What does Devin mean for the WR group? For now all it probably means is that Fred Gibson's practice squad and/or roster spot is in serious jeopardy. Devin is not only physically more impressive than Gibson, he's also just a nicer guy. There was a reason Gibson got shoved off the Steelers after being drafted in the 4th round. Cowher said the guy just "didn't get it". I don't think there's much reason to believe the tiger has changed his stripes on this one. Aromashodu will also ensure that a guy like Campbell, who spent all of 2005 out of football, doesn't just inherit a roster spot because he's caught a few passes from our QB over the years. If we roster only 5 WRs, Campbell would be battling Devin for the final spot...and I tell you this, if I were a WR, I wouldn't have to battle a top notch physical specimen SEC receiver that's made plays against the LSU Tigers for the final roster spot. That's my take.
Defensive Tackle
We drafted two significant defensive tackles that need to be accounted for, but then we also signed Steven Fifita as a UDFA and that guy I believe will force himself to be accounted for. As if that weren't enough, we have a defensive tackle that spent all of 2005 on IR and will also need to be accounted for in 2006. Do we have room for 4 new DTs? Realistically, no.
Fred Evans is a prospect with significant athleticism in his favor. He's over 6'4" and 305 pounds, registered a 35-36 inch vertical but also had a 9+ foot broad, 4.65 shuttle, 7.7 cone, but only 18 bench reps. He maxed out only 365 pounds on the bench, 455 squad, and 335 power clean. I'm guessing the coaches view him as a hard working natural athlete with some natural athleticism. They view him as a guy they're going to try and mold into twice the man he is now through our strength and conditioning program. If he's a hard worker and a natural athlete, he may have some real potential in this area as far as what he can become. He dominated at the small school level but he may feel overwhelmed at first at the pro level until our strength squad can work him into a more significant body.
Kevin Vickerson comes in a lot like Evans. He played for Bobby Williams at Michigan State. He has significant athleticism on a 6'4" and 300 pound frame. He's got a year learning the system already in his favor. But unlike Evans he does not come in with a reputation as a nice guy, or as a hard worker. In fact I don't know how many of you remember the PFT snafu from a year ago, but PFT ran a report where they'd heard that Vickerson was acting like a complete turd with the Dolphins, holding out and not impressing people with his attitude, really pissing off the coaches. This isn't unlike how he was at Michigan State. The story soon got wiped CLEAN from PFT's report logs and when I asked Mike Florio about it he intimated to me that he got asked from someone very significant to take the story off the site and he obliged. I don't know if you remember, but this was around the same time when Nick Saban sat down with Florio for a very STRANGE and exclusive one-on-one interview. Vickerson has a character history needless to say, and he didn't look all that great in preseason games.
Steven Fifita has more experience than Fred Evans against bigger competition, and he has been a significant, penetrating pass rusher throughout his career. I put this in italics because there have been some suggestions that Fifita is more of a run stuffer than pass rusher, but this is not the case. This is a guy that had 3 sacks and 8 TFLs in limited duty in 2003, became the Fiesta Bowl MVP in 2004 after leading the defensive line in tackles and sacks (4.5), and then capped off his career with 6 sacks and 14 TFLs. He vowed to repeat his 5 tackle, 2 TFL, 1 sack MVP performance he had against Pittsburgh in the Fiesta Bowl when he faced Georgia Tech in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl. He did just that, despite a sore hamstring, with 3 tackles, 2 TFLs, and 1 sack. He was pretty dominant in pass rush. He can't help it if Travis LeTendresse caught for a million yards and touchdowns to get the MVP this time around. Fifita already has all the strength you could ask for on his 5'11" and 320+ pound body. He can bench the 225 pound bar at least 38 times. His max is 460 and he can squat an amazing 675 pounds. He also had a not bad 32 inch vertical. You might argue that Fifita is a genuinely more compelling prospect than Fred Evans, but that Evans was more likely to be drafted because of his being 5 inches taller.
Rodrique Wright is the most significant athlete and talent of all four guys and seems BORN for Vonnie Holliday's spot in this defense. He's a guy that will play 3-technique and 5-technique a whole lot more than shifting over to the nose, where Fifita and Evans are more suited to the nose. But there are two problems for Wright. One, is that Vonnie Holliday is still here, and he had a significant season with us in 2005. Two, is that our best guess for what Rodrique will do in 2006 is...nothing...because he's going on IR after he has surgery on his shoulder. Hey, maybe the shoulder shows up clean somehow, but I doubt it.
If the coaches were wrong about Rod Wright's injury, some of these guys are in trouble, needless to say.
Where are the roster spots for these guys? Well, so far I account that Tim McGill spent 4 games on our roster. After 3 weeks where McGill was off the roster and not replaced, Josh Shaw went on to spend 3 games on the roster. He was off the roster for another stint then spent 2 games on the roster again. This roster spot accounts for 9 out of 16 games.
Aside from this fringe roster spot, the Dolphins are returning all of their defensive linemen. This includes Traylor, Holliday, Carter, Taylor, Bowens, Roth, Zgonina, and Wright.
After Wright's standout performances in brief stints as a rotating backup for Traylor, it would appear the only veteran in danger of replacement is Jeff Zgonina. Working in Jeff's favor is that he's a savvy veteran with a great understanding of what we need for him to do and Saban spoke very highly of how he filled in for Traylor when we needed him. Working against him is that he's a little undersized at 6'2" and 290 lbs, and that he's 36 years old. I believe he's old enough that he was actually coached by Dom Capers once before...in Pittsburgh.
So we've basically got 1.5 roster spots in play, and 4 new guys vying for those spots. Five guys if you count in Zgonina fighting for his own roster life. If you put Rodrique Wright on IR this brings it back down to 4 guys: Zgonina, Evans, Vickerson, and Fifita.
The problem for Vickerson and Fred Evans is that they are very alike as prospects. Both are 7th rounders, both have significant athleticism with Evans edging out Vickerson in this area. Evans is a small school guy while Vickerson is an attitude problem guy. Vickerson got that "brook trout look" during the 2005 preseason and ended up on IR with a sprained knee. Evans may very well get the same "brook trout look" when he goes from the small school to the big leagues. From a position perspective, they are different. Vickerson is more of a 3-tech guy, Evans according to Saban will play more nose. Then you've got Steven Fifita, who some may argue is much more likely to come in fit and strong enough and with the "eye of the tiger" to make plays right away and beat the both of them for a spot.
But will ANY of the three beat Zgonina for the ONLY stable roster spot? The second roster spot is extremely sensitive to issues of injury. Like I said, for 7 out of the 16 games there was no second roster spot, injuries at other positions forced us to not have McGill or Shaw. There's no reason to suspect that this will be much different in 2006. Injuries at other position will happen. Sometimes we'll be able to roster 9 defensive linemen, sometimes we'll only be able to afford 8.
The reality is that IMO, Vickerson just got a big fat fire planted under his butt in the form of Fred Evans. The Dolphins then went and grabbed Fifita as well, who may be the guy most suited to be Traylor's immediate backup (if not Manuel Wright).
Secondary
Boy this is the real rat's nest to try and figure out now. Here are the guys we've got under roster, listed in order of CB vs S:
Will Allen (pure CB)
Andre Goodman (pure CB)
Will Poole (pure CB)
Travis Daniels (CB with moderate safety experience)
Jason Allen (CB/S)
Renaldo Hill (Dime CB/S)
Yeremiah Bell (Safety)
Travares Tillman (Safety)
Deke Cooper (Safety)
Eddie Jackson (CB with a little safety experience)
Norman LeJeune (Safety)
Sideeq Shabazz (Safety)
Jack Hunt (Safety)
That's 13 men. Let's say we toss out Hunt, Shabazz, LeJeune, and Jackson. That makes 9 men. We rostered 5 corners and 4 safeties during all 16 games of the 2005 season. That's perfect, right?
Well it could be, if Jason Allen played corner, and if Renaldo Hill played corner. That would give us 5 corners and 4 safeties. But a lot of us are projecting Allen to safety.
So that paints a big mystery. If Allen is a safety that may be considered too many safeties and not enough pure corners. A lot will depend on how good Allen turns out to be right away. If he's good, he may win a starting safety job. Otherwise he may play Star CB. I doubt he'd win a starting CB job over Daniels or Will Allen, but it is entirely possible. Daniels was originally drafted to play the Star CB job, and Saban may view his limited upside as perfect for that position in the long run.
So while it may be easy to figure out which 9 guys you can pencil in for the roster, it's harder than heck to figure out who is going to play when and in what situations. BUT, it is a situation to be confident, because where last year we had guys like Eddie Jackson, Ki Thomas, Norman LeJeune, and Reggie Howard hitting the field constantly, this time they are replaced by Jason Allen, Andre Goodman, Renaldo Hill, and Andre Goodman. Overall no doubt these 9 guys look a whole lot better than the previous 9 guys.
Outside Linebacker
I know a lot of people were very disappointed that we didn't come away with an impact outside linebacker in free agency. We wanted Arrington and when we didn't get him we got....nobody! Not Na'il Diggs, not Bobby Carpenter or Manny Lawson, or one of the other OLB/DEs, nothing.
Last year when Junior was healthy we had Junior, Zach, and Channing as starters. Jason Glenn, Eddie Moore, and Donnie Spragan came in games in relief at times, and Derrick Pope was inactive.
On the roster we have right now, we have Sedrck Hodge, Zach Thomas, and Channing Crowder at starting positions. We have Donnie Spragan, Derrick Pope, Eddie Moore, Mike Labinjo, Trent Bray, and Sam McGrew.
This means that Pope, and believe it or not Eddie Moore, both may get bumps up the depth chart. Then Bray, McGrew, and Labinjo will be competing for Pope's old spot as the 7th linebacker (possibly inactive).
Conclusions to be Drawn:
1. These coaches may have TARGETED Trent Bray, big time. He's a super-duper productive undersized ILB very much in the mold of Zach Thomas. He's a little over 6 feet, 230 pounds. He just MADE PLAYS at Oregon State. He tests like absolute crap in speed measurements but as I've pointed out many times these tests may not have much importance for MLB types.
2. If Bray was an afterthought, I can only conclude that McGrew was not. How good of a connection is Kevin Steele at FSU? Did he vouch for the kid? McGrew is 6'1" and 238 pounds and has been a backup at MLB for FSU most of his years. Either way it appears one of these guys is going to end up securing a spot as the 7th LB on our depth chart....and if both play well, one of them could be bumping Eddie Moore off the chart.
3. Where's the pass rusher? Sedrick Hodge? I don't buy it. He'll play, as a coverage specialist in the mold of Jason Glenn (but with more playing time). He'll share time with Donnie Spragan. But the real guy to watch for will be David Bowens. He wasn't used much at true LB in 2005. He came in as a 4th DL in pass rush sets and gathered 7 sacks. He was an integral part of the pass rush two, and paired extremely well with Kevin Carter in their stunting pairs. But Bowens was originally drafted as a LB by the Denver Broncos. You may remember that when David first got to the Dolphins the first place he made a real impact was on special teams covering punts. Any DL that makes a huge impact on punt coverage you know has to be a dang good athlete, and sure enough we heard reports that in team agility drills, among the DL the only guy who could consistently rival Jason Taylor in practice was David Bowens. His Combine speed and agility drills were almost identical with Matt Roth, who some speculated might make the transition to LB. IMO, Bowens is going to be a guy that Dom Capers is going to play around with a lot and figure out ways to get him playing in space much the same way as Jason Taylor. We worked him into some formations like that early in 2005 but we went away from that as we started to work in a more consistent 4-down pass rush front. Matt Roth may begin to take on more responsibility in those pass rush fronts, while Bowens moves out to play in space a little more. That is my predictions.
So David Bowens is the Cleo Lemon of the LB unit. We tried for Peterson and Arrington, we'd have loved Kamerion Wimbley, and we expressed a little interest in Na'il Diggs...but we never went completely OVERBOARD in our attempts to grab one of those people. Why? Because I believe the worst-case-scenario was David Bowens...and they viewed that worst-case-scenario to be not a wholly-unpleasant one.
There have been speculations that the drafting of Joe Toledo has implications on the progress of Anthony Alabi.
I just want to outline for people that this would be the wrong direction to take your line of thinking.
There may indeed be some implications at the tackle position for this move, but they do not lie with Anthony Alabi.
The man who should be feeling the heat from this move is Vernon Carey.
1. Position Part I. Joe Toledo is not a straight up tackle prospect. He is a tackle or guard prospect. This is an important thing to note. He's not an ideal tackle prospect for Hudson Houck. His arms are just under 33 inches long.
Nick Saban said:
2. Position Part II. What kind of player is Vernon Carey? "He can play guard or tackle". Anthony Alabi is a strict tackle prospect. Do you replace a strict tackle prospect with a guy that "can play guard or tackle"?
3. Previous Regime. Who is the only tackle on the roster not to be chosen by this coaching regime? Vernon Carey. That's a big factor, not to be underestimated.
4. Collecting athletes. There's a reason we are collecting tackles. They are the best athletes on the offensive line. The pool of offensive tackles is where you are going to find the best offensive lineman. You aren't often going to find a super duper guard prospect that didn't play some tackle in college. Jeno James is a tackle convert. Heck we moved Wade Smith from tackle to center. Max Jean-Gilles played tackle at Georgia. Willie Colon played tackle at Hofstra. So why do we have a million tackles on the roster? Because they are the building blocks from which we are going to field the five best linemen possible! Nick Saban recently confirmed exactly what I've been saying at his post-draft press conference:
Nick Saban said:
5. Profiling Part I: Intelligence. There has been some speculation, at one time from myself as well I believe, that Carey fits the profile of a Houck guy. He doesn't, and I think that's important to note. We've seen the guys that Houck seems to want on his offensive line, especially at tackle. He's a believer in intelligent guys with quick feet, long reach and big frame. That's not Vernon Carey. He's not very intelligent. It isn't just that he got an 18 on the wonderlic where Houck guys such as Alabi, Roos, Toledo, and Shelton scored in the high 20's or low 30's. Carey was rumored to be having a real hard time absorbing the playbook and position in 2004, which is pretty notable because the playbook for a tackle isn't exactly rocket science.
6. Profiling Part II: Frame. Carey's got a nice frame and good power. He has this going in his favor. But does he have the reach to be an ideal tackle? His reach came in under 33 inches. We know from statements by Houck himself that "either you need to have long reach or you need to have quick feet...and if you've got both you can be special". I'll get to the quick feet in a moment. Carey is just over 6'4" and has about a 32.8 inch reach. As a comparison, Alabi's got a 36.8 inch reach. Now alone, reach isn't enough to turn a guy off to a tackle prospect.
7. Profiling Part III: Agility. But in conjunction with feet, we've got a statement from Hudson Houck himself that is easily as significant as Nick Saban's statement about 5'9" cornerbacks. Remember the statement, EITHER you have to have long reach, OR you have to have quick feet. Does Carey have quick feet? No. He doesn't. You can see on film that feet aren't exactly his strong point, and it's been talked about since he was drafted that he might not have the feet to handle speed rushers. This is supported by the results of his UM pro day. At 6'4" and 330 lbs he ran a 5.33 in the 40. His short shuttle was a poor 5.0 seconds. His cone was 8.1 seconds. As a comparison, Michael Roos had a 4.5 second shuttle, Toledo and Alabi had 4.6 second shuttles, and Shelton had a 4.7 second shuttle.
8. Guard?. The coaches briefly tried Carey at guard. What they saw made them move Carey back to tackle within about 2 or 3 days. His strengths were clearly in pass protection and he was a bit of a pedestrian run blocker...which isn't exactly your ideal right guard prospect.
9. One Year Wonders. Damion McIntosh and Mike Pearson. They are the definition of "chopping wood" as Saban calls it. You just have to gather as much talent as you can within the reasonable confines of the salary cap and then let them battle it out to see who is best for 2006. How can you compare guys like Shelton, Toledo, Alabi, and Carey with guys like Pearson and McIntosh? The previous four will be signed for at least the next 3 years. Pearson and McIntosh are here on one year deals...both are safety blankets. Seth McKinney belongs in this group as well. Let's fast forward a year and take a look at our roster. We've got Anthony Alabi, LJ Shelton, Joe Toledo, and Vernon Carey. At guard we've got Jeno James, Rex Hadnot, and Wade Smith. What exactly about that situation strikes anyone as over-investment? This would be especially true if Vernon Carey's days are numbered as I suspect they are.
I like Vernon Carey. I do. He impressed me when he played left tackle and I wrote a series of threads about his performance at that position and some of you may remember them. Sometimes the coaches don't think the same way you do though, and you have to come to grips with the reality that they're not as high on someone as you are. After all, if they were as high on Reggie McNeal as I was, they'd have made him their 3rd or 4th round pick instead of Derek Hagan or Joe Toledo.
Quarterback Position
Keith and I argued a bit about this before the draft. I had been speculating for quite a long time that our uncharacteristic loafing around about the quarterback position meant a vote of confidence in Cleo Lemon. Others argued that all our toying around with other quarterbacks meant the opposite.
But where others saw nothing but excuses where it concerns the quarterback position and not being able to bring in other more pedigreed possible backups....I saw a lack of will to bring those guys in. We could have gone all out to try and bring a different QB in to be our backup. Do I know we would be successful? No. But it isn't hard to see that we didn't try very hard.
The draft came and went and again, we didn't grab anyone. Some had been speculating we were a lock to try and take Omar Jacobs in round 4. Round 4 came and went and we grabbed Toledo instead. Round 3 came and went and we let Brodie Croyle go in favor of Derek Hagan. Then after the draft they did what I speculated they'd do, grabbed Justin Holland as a UDFA. Later, Saban would have the following to say:
So it seems pretty clear we're going to take four quarterbacks to camp and once Harrington is under contract, they will decide if Berlin or Holland will be that fourth guy.
So what does this mean for Cleo? Well, the coaches have refused to go out of the way doing anything that would force him off the roster. They didn't even talk to Sage Rosenfels about coming back. They didn't draft a QB. They didn't sign a bunch of guys. And now they've been locked into a dangerous staredown for Joey Harrington. I mean, how do our coaches know that Cleveland's sweeping into the picture on draft day would not have resulted in Harrington's being shipped off to Cleveland? And now the likelihood is that Harrington doesn't start learning the playbook until JUNE. And, this is a guy we're expecting to come in and start games for us this year in 2006 because we know that Daunte will misss a few games with soreness and swelling in the knee.
What if Joey doesn't take very well to the playbook and doesn't play satisfactorily? Basically, there are too many "what ifs" for this position, unless we're highly comfortable with the "worst case scenario".
We can only conclude that Cleo Lemon is not roster fodder at all. He wasn't an "afterthought" and the most ridiculous conclusion I've ever heard is that we paid the San Diego Chargers a 6th round pick to take AJ Feeley's salary off our hands. This is a guy we felt high enough on to pay a valuable draft pick, and our actions throughout the off season imply that he's done enough in practice to SUGGEST to us that he may be ready some time soon to get bumped from #3 on depth chart, to #2 on the depth chart.
Wide Receiver Position
Derek Hagan was the most productive and experienced wide receiver in the draft. He has had 1000+ yards three years in a row. He started 3 games as a freshman and caught 32 passes for 405 yards...was Freshman All Pac-10 and broke the school's freshman records.
Aside from Santonio Holmes, he might be the WR that is most ready for rookie action in the entire draft. He's legendary for his work habits and his film study.
The important thing to note is he's GOT the physical measurables to get open in the NFL. He has the agility, he has the deep speed. He's got a 40 inch vertical. It was no coincidence that he may have been the best receiver in the entire history of the Pac-10. He's a 4.4 speed guy, with a 4.45 timed at the Combine (which makes his time instantly legit). A lot has been made of his 1.50 or 1.52 time in the 10 yard split. That is also impressive. His 4.07 shuttle time though was about what you would hope to see from a 4.45 speedster in that the differential of 0.38 seconds is pretty good especially for a WR/DB type. He never registered a cone drill score. The athleticism model I run gave him a 9 out of 10 final grade.
So why did we focus on THIS guy? Was it that other guys we wanted were gone? No, I don't buy that. We passed on Santonio Holmes AND Chad Jackson in the first round. We almost certainly came to the conclusion that they were not worth our first round selection. Saban admits Allen was the only player left among those dozen guys they had decided would be worth the selection at #16.
Wes Welker I think is the reason. We wanted a guy that could contribute immediately. I love Wes Welker and I am sure they do too, but again NFL production isn't about popularity contests or fan favorites. It is about talent and the physics of the game. The bottom line is Wes is a midget, and now he's a midget on crutches after his surgery.
We went this entire off season without grabbing a guy that we could count on to be the #3 WR. Kelly Campbell is another speed bump, like Pearson. He's got experience with Daunte Culpepper, but he spent all of 2005 out of football.
We were one injury away from having to start either Wes Welker or Kelly Campbell on the outside. That should scare you. It scares me and it certainly scared them. They will rest assured now knowing they've got a 6'2" and 210 pound 4.4 speedster with 4 years of starting experience and a fantastic work ethic ready to start on the outside if an injury happens.
But watch out in 2006 for Hagan. I'm taking all these signs to mean that Hagan is going to be given every opportunity to be this year's Chris Chambers. He's as polished as they come with the exception of run blocking, which is understandable coming from the Pac-10.
Devin Aromashodu was a value selection. He was probably the most physically compelling big school prospect left when we picked. Like I said in other threads my athleticism model resulted in a grade of 10 out of 10 among the WRs in the draft. Miles Austin shared this grade as well but he was a small school guy and as Keith has pointed out, Saban hasn't shown a whole lot of tendency to go with small school guys. Fred Evans was a first. What does Devin mean for the WR group? For now all it probably means is that Fred Gibson's practice squad and/or roster spot is in serious jeopardy. Devin is not only physically more impressive than Gibson, he's also just a nicer guy. There was a reason Gibson got shoved off the Steelers after being drafted in the 4th round. Cowher said the guy just "didn't get it". I don't think there's much reason to believe the tiger has changed his stripes on this one. Aromashodu will also ensure that a guy like Campbell, who spent all of 2005 out of football, doesn't just inherit a roster spot because he's caught a few passes from our QB over the years. If we roster only 5 WRs, Campbell would be battling Devin for the final spot...and I tell you this, if I were a WR, I wouldn't have to battle a top notch physical specimen SEC receiver that's made plays against the LSU Tigers for the final roster spot. That's my take.
Defensive Tackle
We drafted two significant defensive tackles that need to be accounted for, but then we also signed Steven Fifita as a UDFA and that guy I believe will force himself to be accounted for. As if that weren't enough, we have a defensive tackle that spent all of 2005 on IR and will also need to be accounted for in 2006. Do we have room for 4 new DTs? Realistically, no.
Fred Evans is a prospect with significant athleticism in his favor. He's over 6'4" and 305 pounds, registered a 35-36 inch vertical but also had a 9+ foot broad, 4.65 shuttle, 7.7 cone, but only 18 bench reps. He maxed out only 365 pounds on the bench, 455 squad, and 335 power clean. I'm guessing the coaches view him as a hard working natural athlete with some natural athleticism. They view him as a guy they're going to try and mold into twice the man he is now through our strength and conditioning program. If he's a hard worker and a natural athlete, he may have some real potential in this area as far as what he can become. He dominated at the small school level but he may feel overwhelmed at first at the pro level until our strength squad can work him into a more significant body.
Kevin Vickerson comes in a lot like Evans. He played for Bobby Williams at Michigan State. He has significant athleticism on a 6'4" and 300 pound frame. He's got a year learning the system already in his favor. But unlike Evans he does not come in with a reputation as a nice guy, or as a hard worker. In fact I don't know how many of you remember the PFT snafu from a year ago, but PFT ran a report where they'd heard that Vickerson was acting like a complete turd with the Dolphins, holding out and not impressing people with his attitude, really pissing off the coaches. This isn't unlike how he was at Michigan State. The story soon got wiped CLEAN from PFT's report logs and when I asked Mike Florio about it he intimated to me that he got asked from someone very significant to take the story off the site and he obliged. I don't know if you remember, but this was around the same time when Nick Saban sat down with Florio for a very STRANGE and exclusive one-on-one interview. Vickerson has a character history needless to say, and he didn't look all that great in preseason games.
Steven Fifita has more experience than Fred Evans against bigger competition, and he has been a significant, penetrating pass rusher throughout his career. I put this in italics because there have been some suggestions that Fifita is more of a run stuffer than pass rusher, but this is not the case. This is a guy that had 3 sacks and 8 TFLs in limited duty in 2003, became the Fiesta Bowl MVP in 2004 after leading the defensive line in tackles and sacks (4.5), and then capped off his career with 6 sacks and 14 TFLs. He vowed to repeat his 5 tackle, 2 TFL, 1 sack MVP performance he had against Pittsburgh in the Fiesta Bowl when he faced Georgia Tech in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl. He did just that, despite a sore hamstring, with 3 tackles, 2 TFLs, and 1 sack. He was pretty dominant in pass rush. He can't help it if Travis LeTendresse caught for a million yards and touchdowns to get the MVP this time around. Fifita already has all the strength you could ask for on his 5'11" and 320+ pound body. He can bench the 225 pound bar at least 38 times. His max is 460 and he can squat an amazing 675 pounds. He also had a not bad 32 inch vertical. You might argue that Fifita is a genuinely more compelling prospect than Fred Evans, but that Evans was more likely to be drafted because of his being 5 inches taller.
Rodrique Wright is the most significant athlete and talent of all four guys and seems BORN for Vonnie Holliday's spot in this defense. He's a guy that will play 3-technique and 5-technique a whole lot more than shifting over to the nose, where Fifita and Evans are more suited to the nose. But there are two problems for Wright. One, is that Vonnie Holliday is still here, and he had a significant season with us in 2005. Two, is that our best guess for what Rodrique will do in 2006 is...nothing...because he's going on IR after he has surgery on his shoulder. Hey, maybe the shoulder shows up clean somehow, but I doubt it.
If the coaches were wrong about Rod Wright's injury, some of these guys are in trouble, needless to say.
Where are the roster spots for these guys? Well, so far I account that Tim McGill spent 4 games on our roster. After 3 weeks where McGill was off the roster and not replaced, Josh Shaw went on to spend 3 games on the roster. He was off the roster for another stint then spent 2 games on the roster again. This roster spot accounts for 9 out of 16 games.
Aside from this fringe roster spot, the Dolphins are returning all of their defensive linemen. This includes Traylor, Holliday, Carter, Taylor, Bowens, Roth, Zgonina, and Wright.
After Wright's standout performances in brief stints as a rotating backup for Traylor, it would appear the only veteran in danger of replacement is Jeff Zgonina. Working in Jeff's favor is that he's a savvy veteran with a great understanding of what we need for him to do and Saban spoke very highly of how he filled in for Traylor when we needed him. Working against him is that he's a little undersized at 6'2" and 290 lbs, and that he's 36 years old. I believe he's old enough that he was actually coached by Dom Capers once before...in Pittsburgh.
So we've basically got 1.5 roster spots in play, and 4 new guys vying for those spots. Five guys if you count in Zgonina fighting for his own roster life. If you put Rodrique Wright on IR this brings it back down to 4 guys: Zgonina, Evans, Vickerson, and Fifita.
The problem for Vickerson and Fred Evans is that they are very alike as prospects. Both are 7th rounders, both have significant athleticism with Evans edging out Vickerson in this area. Evans is a small school guy while Vickerson is an attitude problem guy. Vickerson got that "brook trout look" during the 2005 preseason and ended up on IR with a sprained knee. Evans may very well get the same "brook trout look" when he goes from the small school to the big leagues. From a position perspective, they are different. Vickerson is more of a 3-tech guy, Evans according to Saban will play more nose. Then you've got Steven Fifita, who some may argue is much more likely to come in fit and strong enough and with the "eye of the tiger" to make plays right away and beat the both of them for a spot.
But will ANY of the three beat Zgonina for the ONLY stable roster spot? The second roster spot is extremely sensitive to issues of injury. Like I said, for 7 out of the 16 games there was no second roster spot, injuries at other positions forced us to not have McGill or Shaw. There's no reason to suspect that this will be much different in 2006. Injuries at other position will happen. Sometimes we'll be able to roster 9 defensive linemen, sometimes we'll only be able to afford 8.
The reality is that IMO, Vickerson just got a big fat fire planted under his butt in the form of Fred Evans. The Dolphins then went and grabbed Fifita as well, who may be the guy most suited to be Traylor's immediate backup (if not Manuel Wright).
Secondary
Boy this is the real rat's nest to try and figure out now. Here are the guys we've got under roster, listed in order of CB vs S:
Will Allen (pure CB)
Andre Goodman (pure CB)
Will Poole (pure CB)
Travis Daniels (CB with moderate safety experience)
Jason Allen (CB/S)
Renaldo Hill (Dime CB/S)
Yeremiah Bell (Safety)
Travares Tillman (Safety)
Deke Cooper (Safety)
Eddie Jackson (CB with a little safety experience)
Norman LeJeune (Safety)
Sideeq Shabazz (Safety)
Jack Hunt (Safety)
That's 13 men. Let's say we toss out Hunt, Shabazz, LeJeune, and Jackson. That makes 9 men. We rostered 5 corners and 4 safeties during all 16 games of the 2005 season. That's perfect, right?
Well it could be, if Jason Allen played corner, and if Renaldo Hill played corner. That would give us 5 corners and 4 safeties. But a lot of us are projecting Allen to safety.
So that paints a big mystery. If Allen is a safety that may be considered too many safeties and not enough pure corners. A lot will depend on how good Allen turns out to be right away. If he's good, he may win a starting safety job. Otherwise he may play Star CB. I doubt he'd win a starting CB job over Daniels or Will Allen, but it is entirely possible. Daniels was originally drafted to play the Star CB job, and Saban may view his limited upside as perfect for that position in the long run.
So while it may be easy to figure out which 9 guys you can pencil in for the roster, it's harder than heck to figure out who is going to play when and in what situations. BUT, it is a situation to be confident, because where last year we had guys like Eddie Jackson, Ki Thomas, Norman LeJeune, and Reggie Howard hitting the field constantly, this time they are replaced by Jason Allen, Andre Goodman, Renaldo Hill, and Andre Goodman. Overall no doubt these 9 guys look a whole lot better than the previous 9 guys.
Outside Linebacker
I know a lot of people were very disappointed that we didn't come away with an impact outside linebacker in free agency. We wanted Arrington and when we didn't get him we got....nobody! Not Na'il Diggs, not Bobby Carpenter or Manny Lawson, or one of the other OLB/DEs, nothing.
Last year when Junior was healthy we had Junior, Zach, and Channing as starters. Jason Glenn, Eddie Moore, and Donnie Spragan came in games in relief at times, and Derrick Pope was inactive.
On the roster we have right now, we have Sedrck Hodge, Zach Thomas, and Channing Crowder at starting positions. We have Donnie Spragan, Derrick Pope, Eddie Moore, Mike Labinjo, Trent Bray, and Sam McGrew.
This means that Pope, and believe it or not Eddie Moore, both may get bumps up the depth chart. Then Bray, McGrew, and Labinjo will be competing for Pope's old spot as the 7th linebacker (possibly inactive).
Conclusions to be Drawn:
1. These coaches may have TARGETED Trent Bray, big time. He's a super-duper productive undersized ILB very much in the mold of Zach Thomas. He's a little over 6 feet, 230 pounds. He just MADE PLAYS at Oregon State. He tests like absolute crap in speed measurements but as I've pointed out many times these tests may not have much importance for MLB types.
2. If Bray was an afterthought, I can only conclude that McGrew was not. How good of a connection is Kevin Steele at FSU? Did he vouch for the kid? McGrew is 6'1" and 238 pounds and has been a backup at MLB for FSU most of his years. Either way it appears one of these guys is going to end up securing a spot as the 7th LB on our depth chart....and if both play well, one of them could be bumping Eddie Moore off the chart.
3. Where's the pass rusher? Sedrick Hodge? I don't buy it. He'll play, as a coverage specialist in the mold of Jason Glenn (but with more playing time). He'll share time with Donnie Spragan. But the real guy to watch for will be David Bowens. He wasn't used much at true LB in 2005. He came in as a 4th DL in pass rush sets and gathered 7 sacks. He was an integral part of the pass rush two, and paired extremely well with Kevin Carter in their stunting pairs. But Bowens was originally drafted as a LB by the Denver Broncos. You may remember that when David first got to the Dolphins the first place he made a real impact was on special teams covering punts. Any DL that makes a huge impact on punt coverage you know has to be a dang good athlete, and sure enough we heard reports that in team agility drills, among the DL the only guy who could consistently rival Jason Taylor in practice was David Bowens. His Combine speed and agility drills were almost identical with Matt Roth, who some speculated might make the transition to LB. IMO, Bowens is going to be a guy that Dom Capers is going to play around with a lot and figure out ways to get him playing in space much the same way as Jason Taylor. We worked him into some formations like that early in 2005 but we went away from that as we started to work in a more consistent 4-down pass rush front. Matt Roth may begin to take on more responsibility in those pass rush fronts, while Bowens moves out to play in space a little more. That is my predictions.
So David Bowens is the Cleo Lemon of the LB unit. We tried for Peterson and Arrington, we'd have loved Kamerion Wimbley, and we expressed a little interest in Na'il Diggs...but we never went completely OVERBOARD in our attempts to grab one of those people. Why? Because I believe the worst-case-scenario was David Bowens...and they viewed that worst-case-scenario to be not a wholly-unpleasant one.
:up:
