Draft Scenario With Trades

KB21

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*Miami trades the 2nd pick to Tampa Bay for the 5th pick, the 36th pick (2nd round), the 91st pick (3rd round), and the 144th pick (5th round).

*Miami trades the 5th pick to Minnesota for the 7th pick, 49th pick (2nd round), and the 120th pick (4th round).

*Miami trades Patrick Surtain to Kansas City for the 46th pick (2nd round), and a conditional 2006 draft pick.

*Miami trades Jeff Zgonina to St. Louis for the 155th pick (5th round)

You think Nick Saban could do some damage if armed with six picks on the first day while adding two more picks on the early portion of the second day?
 

phunwin

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I think the first two trades are mutually exclusive. It sounds like Minny wants to move up to #2 or #3 to ensure getting Edwards. Moving up to #5 wouldn't accomplish that, considering that Edwards probably doesn't get past Cleveland or Chicago.
 

KB21

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Clumpy said:
Fantasy land

No way TB gives up that much when Miami is a motivated seller.
No way TB gets the pick without giving up that much. The trade that I have posted doesn't even come close to the value of the pick anyway.
 

DOLFANMIKE

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phunwin said:
I think the first two trades are mutually exclusive. It sounds like Minny wants to move up to #2 or #3 to ensure getting Edwards. Moving up to #5 wouldn't accomplish that, considering that Edwards probably doesn't get past Cleveland or Chicago.
Moving to 5 overall for Minnesota would get them WR Braylon Edwards or Mike Williams. Those are the guys they'd want there.
 

phunwin

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DOLFANMIKE said:
Moving to 5 overall for Minnesota would get them WR Braylon Edwards or Mike Williams. Those are the guys they'd want there.
The word is that Edwards is the one they want, and I'd be very surprised if he's there at 5.
 

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phunwin said:
The word is that Edwards is the one they want, and I'd be very surprised if he's there at 5.
I can't believe the Bears arent trying to trade up to #2 overall. They have had a poor QB situation for years.
 

ckparrothead

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If Mike Williams is Minnesota's guy, then moving to #5 would help them get him, certainly.

However it is still my suspicion that Tampa Bay is tossing out these trade rumors as smokescreen, to get Miami to either take Alex Smith, or trade with someone who will, because the chances are that if Miami is NOT picking in the top 4 picks, Ronnie Brown will make it all the way to #5. Ronnie Brown fits perfectly into their RB profile, and they do have some QBs already. Also, Gruden coached Jason Campbell and David Greene in the Senior Bowl, and I really do think he might like one of those guys. And, at #37, they will certainly get a crack at Campbell...and with their 3rd round pick, they will certainly get a crack at Greene. I also suspect, however, that Tampa may like Mike Williams, as a local kid, and as a BIG receiver (Gruden likes his WRs especially big and tall, in his own words "it makes a difference"). And another thing I noticed is that Gruden went more out of his way to hype Rodgers than Smith, and I am thinking he did that because he senses that San Fran really might take Smith...and Rodgers, as the #1 guy on a lot of teams' draft boards, would draw the most trade-up interest if he fell to #2 and beyond.

And something is going on in Minnesota. I haven't figured it out yet, but the last thing I would call them is "honest" when it comes to the draft, the way things have happened for them in the past. It would certainly make sense for them to try and trade up to get Braylon Edwards, hype him as the next Randy Moss, give Culpepper a nice WR target for years to come. Nobody in Minnesota is going to put their butt in a seat because the Vikings are hyping Troy Williamson. But, they might if they can get Braylon Edwards. They've been very very active in FA on defense. On offense, they may want a guy who can contribute right away, and I'm sure they're wondering to themselves, could Williamson go right away, or could Edwards?

For now, tentatively, I would call a Minnesota trade to #2 VERY possible. I may downgrade, once I've had time to figure out who Minnesota's real target may be at #7.

My estimation for what we would end up with in the case of a trade down, would be the #7, #18, #46, and our 3rd round pick. At those picks, I would probably take Alex Barron at #7 and Matt Jones at #18. After that it gets hard to predict, but I would take either Fason or a DT at #46, and then at 3rd round a RB (if we didn't get Fason), DT (if we didn't get one at #46), or CB. In the 4th round I would be inclined to take a chance on David Greene if he were there (props to KB21, Greene is more his boy than mine).
 

BuffBillsMan90

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You are over estimating the value of the pick in a year in which many of those drafted top 5 or even top 10 may have been a reach in rd 1. It's been advanced that J.P. Losman would be rated as the #1 QB and possibly the #1 overall. He was drafted at #23 last yr. Besides, Miami wants to trade down for 3 reasons: 1) lower contract obligations 2) better value 3) acquire more picks to rebuild. TB holds the cards on this deal
 

ckparrothead

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You are over estimating the value of the pick in a year in which many of those drafted top 5 or even top 10 may have been a reach in rd 1. It's been advanced that J.P. Losman would be rated as the #1 QB and possibly the #1 overall. He was drafted at #23 last yr. Besides, Miami wants to trade down for 3 reasons: 1) lower contract obligations 2) better value 3) acquire more picks to rebuild. TB holds the cards on this deal
Advanced mostly by Bills fans. Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith are both superior prospects compared to Losman. That much is accepted very widely.

And also, Braylon Edwards, the man that Minnesota may be attempting to get, compares favorably to Larry Fitzgerald and Charles Rogers, while Mike Williams and Troy Williamson, IMO, do not compare favorably with top 10 WRs of the past. The Vikes could also consider that paying the #2 overall selection would be cheaper than paying the #7 and #18.
 

BuffBillsMan90

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Your second deal is a little unrealistic as well and now that I look.....the Surtain deal is also unrealistic

I can agree with the Zgonina deal though :D
 

BuffBillsMan90

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ckparrothead said:
Advanced mostly by Bills fans. Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith are both superior prospects compared to Losman. That much is accepted very widely.

That's not true. A number of those in the media have stated opinions that I made reference to. They've also stated that this is a weak draft overall and because of this, teams at the top are not overly excited to pay $15-20 million in guaranteed bonuses. Motivated sellers will settle for less.
 

BuffBillsMan90

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#2 for #7 & #18 yes ---> In this scenario, Vikes are a motivated buyer because they would rather pay #2 overall less than #7 & #18 combined. They are also moving up 5 spots for the cost of one pick.

#2 for #5, #36, #91, and #144 No way


Throw away the "draft value" charts. They are not applicable this year
 

ckparrothead

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That's not true. A number of those in the media have stated opinions that I made reference to. They've also stated that this is a weak draft overall and because of this, teams at the top are not overly excited to pay $15-20 million in guaranteed bonuses. Motivated sellers will settle for less.
Find me some national media (not Buffalo media, and not Pete Prisco) that have stated such, and I will retract my accusation. Simple as that.
 

ckparrothead

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Throw away the "draft value" charts. They are not applicable this year
People enjoy saying that, and enjoy calling this a buyers market, but in the end, with the draft and moving up, its always a seller's market. Merely by insisting that he's going to go strictly by the trade value chart, Saban ups the price. A lot goes into a trade these days. I wouldn't disregard the chart so easily.
 
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