Drafting a quarterback not always a panacea

[Mr.Majestik]

A straw poll of FinHeaven would probably reveal that a majority would prefer to draft a quarterback, preferably Brady Quinn at 9, or Drew Stanton later in the draft, as opposed to trade for one like David Carr. The consensus opinion is that you're just trading for someone else's garbage, see Culpepper, or Harrington, or Feely for proof. But drafting a quarterback in the first-round usually turns out no better. Some of these quarterbacks failed so spectacularly that they set back their respective teams for many years. Here is a list of quarterbacks taken in the first-round, I've segregated the list into four sections: Pro Bowlers, quality starter/upside, too early to tell, and bust. A bust might be a quarterback that was successful elsewhere, but not for the drafting team. The list goes back about twenty-years.

Pro Bowlers--Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger (hasn't been to the Pro Bowl, but has played at that level and has already won a Super Bowl, so he's included) Donovan McNabb, Phillip Rivers, Carson Palmer, Daunte Culpepper, Steve McNair, Drew Bledsoe, Michael Vick (while Vick has been to the Pro Bowl and he sells many tickets, he can probably be considered a bust) and Troy Aikman.

Good starters, or guys that have upside: David Carr, J.P. Losman, Eli Manning, Byron Leftwich (rumors that he could be dealt would upgrade him to a bust) and Chad Pennington. Jim Harbaugh was a Pro Bowler for the Colts once, but only a decent starter for the Bears, who drafted him.

Too early to tell: Alex Smith, Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart, Vince Young, Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers (the rumors of an impending trade would upgrade him to bust)

Busts: Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman (hadn't played much until this year, but neither had Rivers, doesn't have the excuse of playing on a bad team), Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Ryan Leaf, Jim Drunkenmiller, Cade McNown, Rick Mirer, Kerry Collins, Heath Shuler, Trent Dilfer, Dave Brown, Tommy Maddox, David Klingler, Dan McGwire, Todd Marinovich, Jeff George, Andre Ware, Steve Walsh, Timm Rosenbach, Chris Miller, Vinny Testaverde (no success in TB), and Kelly Stoufer. What a list of immortals.

The odds of drafting a great quarterback in the first-round are no better then trying to deal for one. There are 2 1/2 times as many first-round busts as first-round Pro Bowlers at the quarterback position, and that number would be larger if we made some value judgements
and moved guys like Vick, Leftwich and Rodgers into the bust column (especially if Leftwich cannot regain his starting job, or Rodgers is dealt.)

 

[Roman529]

We seem to always want to get other teams leftovers at QB rather than drafting a quality player for the future.....to me drafting your future QB makes a lot more sense than trying to acquire one through trade or FA.

 

[Myles Fynch]

The odds of drafting a great quarterback in the first-round are no better then trying to deal for one. There are 2 1/2 times as many first-round busts as first-round Pro Bowlers at the quarterback position,

Good breakdown. A rule of thumb on 1st rounders (not exclusively QBs) that I read someplace years ago stated that, generally speaking, 1/3 are flat out busts, 1/3 are mediocre, and 1/3 are going to be stars. As "rules of thumb" go that's as good as any that I've found in regards to the crapshoot that is the first round in the NFL Draft.

Reasons that I'm optimistic that if we drafted a QB on the first day that he'd pan out for us are the following:

* Cam's rep for developing QBs
* Cam's calling the plays
* Cam and Mueller cooperating to ensure we get the right players

I'm encouraged by this last point that they will pick the right QB to develop in the first place, as we know with previous head coach/GM combos that hasn't always been the case. If we can cut down on the "garbage in / garbage out" drafting method we've become accustomed to, we'll see a better product on the field.

 

[MoneyBrown]

Busts: Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman (hadn't played much until this year, but neither had Rivers, doesn't have the excuse of playing on a bad team), Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Ryan Leaf, Jim Drunkenmiller, Cade McNown, Rick Mirer, Kerry Collins, Heath Shuler, Trent Dilfer, Dave Brown, Tommy Maddox, David Klingler, Dan McGwire, Todd Marinovich, Jeff George, Andre Ware, Steve Walsh, Timm Rosenbach, Chris Miller, Vinny Testaverde (no success in TB), and Kelly Stoufer. What a list of immortals.

I mainly agree, although I would have to slightly disagree with Testaverde, although never had great regular success, he had a long career helping out some teams along the way...(but I recant if your only talking about his time in TB)

and i do agree that Dilfer was a crappy QB, but he has won a SB...

and Drunkenmiller has the greatest name EVER for a QB(besides Marino), that should get him an upgrade...

 

[shula_guy]

Unfortunatly in todays modern NFL, the postion of QB suffers tremendously. Between FA and salary caps, teams often do not have the luxury of grooming a QB. Teams are looking for immeadiate impact players with early draft picks and QBs rarely are that fresh out of the draft. Traditionly its been a postion that takes a player 4 or 5 years to mature into. That being said, it does not change the fact that we need to have them, and groom them into our teams future or we will not be sucessful. Look how long steve young sat behind montanna learning and waiting.

 

[Mr.Majestik]

We seem to always want to get other teams leftovers at QB rather than drafting a quality player for the future.....to me drafting your future QB makes a lot more sense than trying to acquire one through trade or FA.

It's always a better idea to draft, the best teams have the fewest free agents as a general rule. But when looking at quarterbacks, just look at the Pro Bowl rosters going back 7, or 8-years. Marc Bulger, Jake Delhomme, Mark Brunell, Kurt Warner, Jeff Garcia, Matt Hasselbeck, Rich Gannon, Trent Green, Drew Bledsoe, Brett Favre, Brad Johnson, they were all Pro Bowlers, a couple Super Bowl champs and a few Super Bowl runners-up in that group, and they were all playing for teams that did not draft them. Often they were playing for their second, third, or fourth teams. The list of Pro Bowl caliber quarterbacks drafted in the first round is actully ridiculously small, about one every two drafts.

A guy like David Carr, if he were available could present better value for a third, or fourth-round pick then spending the ninth pick in the draft, or trading up further to get a guy like Brady Quinn. 1) He's ready to contribute immediately, not two years from now. 2) He's probably not going to be much more expensive. 3) He allows the team to fill another need with the ninth pick. 4) It's highly doubtful we could find a guy with as much upside with a third, or fourth-round pick, so giving up the pick represents no real loss. Giving up a throwaway pick for Joey Harrington was a no-brainer, so was losing the second for a former MVP candidate like CPep, even if they couldn't play, there were no guarantees the guys we would have taken with the picks would have done any better, the pick we gave up for Harrington probably would not have made the team.

If they draft a guy I'm fine with it, if they trade for Carr I'm fine with it. But chances are if we draft a guy in the first-round, he's more likely to be Cade McNown then Carson Palmer.

 

[TexanPhinatic]

Umm, there are busts at EVERY POSITION IN THE DRAFT! You could chance "quarterback" to any other position and make a similar list, I love arguments like this one. The fact that there are busts should mean nothing. There has always been and always will be busts at every position. Some may have a higher rate than others, but there are always busts. Its up to the personell dept. to find the right guy.
So why draft a QB then instead of getting one in FA should be the argument. My opinion is that Quinn has a better upside than anyone on our roster and has the potential to be a Brady/Manning type of player for us for over a decade. Im excited when I think of Mueller and Cam shaking hands in the war room and saying "we got our guy" and then just watching the new era begin, rather than watching DC take the field and wonder just WHY the vikings were so desperate to get rid of him, or wondering just HOW in the hell AJ Feeley was worth a second round pick etc etc. I mean, every time some team offloads a QB, its just raises that question-why? Whats wrong with them that you dont think you need them. QBs a HUGE commodity, and DC is a pro-bowler, so WHY did you want to get rid of him?
Its looking less likely that Quinn will fall at this point though, so the whole thing might be moot anyway. But if we did get Quinn, holy crap id be excited.

 

[unifiedtheory]

You could make this EXACT arguement for every single position. Let's look at running backs drafted in the 1st round since 1990 for instance...

Franchise players: Emmitt Smith, Jerome Bettis, Robert Smith, Marshall Faulk, Warrick Dunn, Fred Taylor, Edgerrin James, Shaun Alexander, LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson

Good Starters: Rodney Hampton, Garrison Hearst, Jamal Lewis, Eddie George, Ricky Williams (major issues keep him out of franchise players category), Deuce McAllister, Steven Jackson

Had moments: Tyrone Wheatley, James Stewart, Antowain Smith, William Floyd, Napoleon Kaufman (injury), Thomas Jones

Jury is still out: Willis McGahee, Kevin Jones, Ronnie Brown, Caddy Williams, Cedric Benson, Reggie Bush, Laurence Maroney, DeAngelo Williams, Joseph Adaii.

Busts: Dexter Carter, Steve Broussard, Darrell Thompson, Blair Thomas, Leonard Russell, Jarrod Bunch, Tony Smith, Vaughn Dunbar, Greg Hill, Ki-Jana Carter (injury), Rashaan Salaam, Lawrence Phillips, Tim Biakabutuka, Curtis Enis, Robert Edwards (injury), John Avery, Ron Dayne, Trung Canidate, Michael Bennett, William Green, TJ Duckett, Chris Perry.

Running back is a different category all together because there are more of them chosen every year. That said, the nust rate is still high. The bust rate is high at every position. The draft is not an exact science, every team is going to have guys that flop, it's reality. If the fact that a bunch of guys at a certain position have busted scared every team every time no one would ever get drafted.

The fact that Ryan Leaf was a flop should NEVER preclude you from taking a quarterback. Draft a guy, do your best to help him become a great player and see what happens....

 

[dabeastdabone]

As much as we want to talk about it I think all the experts I have heard say if Quinn is there at 9 he is a Dolphin and I can't see it going any other way. If Quinn isn't there they draft someone else. Easy enough.

 

[marinotoclayton]

Unfortunatly in todays modern NFL, the postion of QB suffers tremendously. Between FA and salary caps, teams often do not have the luxury of grooming a QB. Teams are looking for immeadiate impact players with early draft picks and QBs rarely are that fresh out of the draft. Traditionly its been a postion that takes a player 4 or 5 years to mature into. That being said, it does not change the fact that we need to have them, and groom them into our teams future or we will not be sucessful. Look how long steve young sat behind montanna learning and waiting.

The only problem I have with the statement above is there isn't anybody we have that is so spectacular that a young guy would have to wait so long be fore being thrown into the fire.

 

[Mr.Majestik]

I mainly agree, although I would have to slightly disagree with Testaverde, although never had great regular success, he had a long career helping out some teams along the way...(but I recant if your only talking about his time in TB)

and i do agree that Dilfer was a crappy QB, but he has won a SB...

and Drunkenmiller has the greatest name EVER for a QB(besides Marino), that should get him an upgrade...

A quarterback is a bust if he doesn't have success for the team that drafted him. Testaverde had success later in his career, long after he left the Bucs, as did Dilfer, but for the Buccaneers, who invested the first pick in the draft on Testaverde, and the sixth pick in the draft on Dilfer, those two guys were failures writ large. Good quarterbacks fail in bad situations. You need a good team to a be a good quarterback.

 

[Regan21286]

A straw poll of FinHeaven would probably reveal that a majority would prefer to draft a quarterback, preferably Brady Quinn at 9, or Drew Stanton later in the draft, as opposed to trade for one like David Carr. The consensus opinion is that you're just trading for someone else's garbage, see Culpepper, or Harrington, or Feely for proof. But drafting a quarterback in the first-round usually turns out no better. Some of these quarterbacks failed so spectacularly that they set back their respective teams for many years. Here is a list of quarterbacks taken in the first-round, I've segregated the list into four sections: Pro Bowlers, quality starter/upside, too early to tell, and bust. A bust might be a quarterback that was successful elsewhere, but not for the drafting team. The list goes back about twenty-years.

Pro Bowlers--Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger (hasn't been to the Pro Bowl, but has played at that level and has already won a Super Bowl, so he's included) Donovan McNabb, Phillip Rivers, Carson Palmer, Daunte Culpepper, Steve McNair, Drew Bledsoe, Michael Vick (while Vick has been to the Pro Bowl and he sells many tickets, he can probably be considered a bust) and Troy Aikman.

Good starters, or guys that have upside: David Carr, J.P. Losman, Eli Manning, Byron Leftwich (rumors that he could be dealt would upgrade him to a bust) and Chad Pennington. Jim Harbaugh was a Pro Bowler for the Colts once, but only a decent starter for the Bears, who drafted him.

Too early to tell: Alex Smith, Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart, Vince Young, Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers (the rumors of an impending trade would upgrade him to bust)

Busts: Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman (hadn't played much until this year, but neither had Rivers, doesn't have the excuse of playing on a bad team), Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Ryan Leaf, Jim Drunkenmiller, Cade McNown, Rick Mirer, Kerry Collins, Heath Shuler, Trent Dilfer, Dave Brown, Tommy Maddox, David Klingler, Dan McGwire, Todd Marinovich, Jeff George, Andre Ware, Steve Walsh, Timm Rosenbach, Chris Miller, Vinny Testaverde (no success in TB), and Kelly Stoufer. What a list of immortals.

The odds of drafting a great quarterback in the first-round are no better then trying to deal for one. There are 2 1/2 times as many first-round busts as first-round Pro Bowlers at the quarterback position, and that number would be larger if we made some value judgements
and moved guys like Vick, Leftwich and Rodgers into the bust column (especially if Leftwich cannot regain his starting job, or Rodgers is dealt.)

There are busts at every position in the draft. Chances are, you will get busts in the 1st round. The only way to at least try to safeguard from getting a bust is good scouting and coaching and above all, luck. You can't get lucky if you don't make a wager. And we haven't placed a "gamble" on a QB in the 1st round since Marino. And we have a very good track record of drafting QB's in the 1st round. Not to mention we have a coach who's very good at coaching young QB's.

I would put Cutler, Leinart, and Young up in the good starters or guys that have upside, especially considering they've each looked better than Daunte Culpepper did at times in their first season.

 

[shula_guy]

The only problem I have with the statement above is there isn't anybody we have that is so spectacular that a young guy would have to wait so long be fore being thrown into the fire.

Your right there isnt, my point was more about the fact that the QB postion is one of grooming and developing more so then other postions and like you said our team really has noone. We have noone currently nor on the horizon which is something I think everyone here can agree on. this is something we need to start start building up.

 

[BlueFin]

A quarterback is a bust if he doesn't have success for the team that drafted him.

Not true.

 

[jimi64]

Dumb thought, but Leftwich looked good until his so called ankle injury last year , forget about Green and draft stanton see if Leftwich gets cut