PewterKrew
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When it comes to scouting talent for the up coming NFL draft, the first round of the draft, particularly in the top 15 selections, does not of course guarantee the team drafting of finding a player that will translate into NFL greatness. But, certain positions do offer far more stability in terms of performance while leaving less likelihood of a prospect becoming a bust at the next level.
As most NFL draft nik’s would know - by far the safest top-10 selection by position is Defensive End. Over the last decade, defensive ends drafted in the top 15 picks have generally been extremely productive. We're talking guys like Simeon Rice, Dwight Freeney, Justin Smith, Julius Peppers, Terrell Suggs, Richard Seymour, Shaun Ellis, John Abraham, Shawn Merriman, Demarcus Ware, etc. With the rare exception of guys like Andre Wadsworth (who you cant count because his problems are directly related to injury) and Coutrney Brown The reason for this is obvious - the shift from the college ranks to the NFL ranks is pretty simple. DE are still responsible for the exact same function they had in college – apply pressure to the QB. LT's are of course more physically stout in the NFL, but the function of a DE is still the same at the pro level, so great performance coupled with physically gifted prospects with skills to turn the corner and get after the QB are a pretty good indicator of performance at the next level.
The second safest position is of course Left Tackle. There will be guys like Tony Mandarich, Robert Gallery, Kenyatta Walker and Mike WIlliams (who had no business playing LT at the pro level with slow feet). But for the most part - the best LT's in the NFL are all top 15 selections. In fact, you can't name me a pro-bowl LT that wasn’t drafted in the top-15. Jonathan Ogden, Willie Roaf, Tony Boselli, Walter Jones, Orlando Pace, Levi Jones, Willie Anderson, Chris Samuels and Paul Gruber who should have gone to several pro-bowls.
Linebacker would probably be considered the second safest, or even safest except LB's are typically not drafted top-10. The rare top-10 LB (and I'm talking about linebackers - not DE/OLB tweeners and prospects suited to play outside LB in a 3-4 scheme, because thats really just another name for DE in the 3-4 scheme). This is particularly true of Middle linebacker’s.
As for gamble positions at the pro level, we all know the obvious 3 – QB, RB and WR so we'll ignore the first two QB and RB, While we take a look at the wide receiver position at the next level. The wide receiver position at the pro level is a huge toss-up and one of the biggest gambles. Sure, there are plenty of Larry Fitzgeralds, Torry Holts and Andre Johnsons. But there are even more JJ Stokes, Reggie Williams, Mike Williams, Charles Rogers, David Terrells, Peter Warricks, David Bostons and Travis Taylors that are drafted. That said, you can still find number one receivers in later rounds of the draft guys like Chad Johnson, Terrell Owens, Jimmy Smith are a few.
So then the Bucs could have a shot at either Joe Thomas, Gaines Adams or Calvin Johnson in the up coming draft and with all the facts out in the open yet there is still plenty of debate going on about who the team should pick. Well at this point my money is on Thomas if he is still on the board when the Bucs are on the clock it is nearly impossible to imagine Jon Gruden not going after Thomas since he could step in and make the line much better from day one., while allowing Gruden to finally open up his entire playbook. Don’t get be wrong it is virtually impossible to imagine Calvin Johnson not being a success at the NFL level. I don't know if there's ever been a physical specimen like Johnson to come out of college. At this stage I think he is better then Randy Moss was when he was drafted in 1998. Johnson has something Moss has never had the ability to go over the middle while also being a possession receiver, so I still consider Johnson a safe pick.
However, one of, if not the biggest toss-up, boom-or-bust (QB notwithstanding) positions in the NFL draft is Defensive Tackle. There's just no forecasting this one (and its so ironic because DE is the safest). If you want a perfect example of what I'm getting at look no further then the 2003 draft. 5 DT's ( if you count Seymour but he came out as a DE and does play the DE/DT role in the Patriots 3-4) were taken in the top-15. Dwayne Robertson – good but not great. Jonathan Sullivan - complete bust, Kevin Williams - pro-bowler. Jimmy Kennedy - huge bust. Or the draft before that when John Henderson turned out great - but Ryan Sims was selected ahead of him, while Wendell Bryant was selected behind him. Or the year before that, when Marcus Stroud was the 13th pick, but Gerard Warren was the 3rd overall pick in the draft by the Browns. Or you can just recall such prospects like Russell Maryland and Dan Wilkinson and Steve Emtman, who played a combined 31 seasons and have a combined 1 pro-bowl between them. So before you go gaga over Louisville defensive tackle Amobi Okoye just because he was great in the college ranks does not mean that he will translate to the pro game and become a force in the middle.
If you have gained anything from this, please remember this. That sometimes it is better to go with the safe pick rather then the sexy pick when it comes to drafting prospects in the NFL.
As most NFL draft nik’s would know - by far the safest top-10 selection by position is Defensive End. Over the last decade, defensive ends drafted in the top 15 picks have generally been extremely productive. We're talking guys like Simeon Rice, Dwight Freeney, Justin Smith, Julius Peppers, Terrell Suggs, Richard Seymour, Shaun Ellis, John Abraham, Shawn Merriman, Demarcus Ware, etc. With the rare exception of guys like Andre Wadsworth (who you cant count because his problems are directly related to injury) and Coutrney Brown The reason for this is obvious - the shift from the college ranks to the NFL ranks is pretty simple. DE are still responsible for the exact same function they had in college – apply pressure to the QB. LT's are of course more physically stout in the NFL, but the function of a DE is still the same at the pro level, so great performance coupled with physically gifted prospects with skills to turn the corner and get after the QB are a pretty good indicator of performance at the next level.
The second safest position is of course Left Tackle. There will be guys like Tony Mandarich, Robert Gallery, Kenyatta Walker and Mike WIlliams (who had no business playing LT at the pro level with slow feet). But for the most part - the best LT's in the NFL are all top 15 selections. In fact, you can't name me a pro-bowl LT that wasn’t drafted in the top-15. Jonathan Ogden, Willie Roaf, Tony Boselli, Walter Jones, Orlando Pace, Levi Jones, Willie Anderson, Chris Samuels and Paul Gruber who should have gone to several pro-bowls.
Linebacker would probably be considered the second safest, or even safest except LB's are typically not drafted top-10. The rare top-10 LB (and I'm talking about linebackers - not DE/OLB tweeners and prospects suited to play outside LB in a 3-4 scheme, because thats really just another name for DE in the 3-4 scheme). This is particularly true of Middle linebacker’s.
As for gamble positions at the pro level, we all know the obvious 3 – QB, RB and WR so we'll ignore the first two QB and RB, While we take a look at the wide receiver position at the next level. The wide receiver position at the pro level is a huge toss-up and one of the biggest gambles. Sure, there are plenty of Larry Fitzgeralds, Torry Holts and Andre Johnsons. But there are even more JJ Stokes, Reggie Williams, Mike Williams, Charles Rogers, David Terrells, Peter Warricks, David Bostons and Travis Taylors that are drafted. That said, you can still find number one receivers in later rounds of the draft guys like Chad Johnson, Terrell Owens, Jimmy Smith are a few.
So then the Bucs could have a shot at either Joe Thomas, Gaines Adams or Calvin Johnson in the up coming draft and with all the facts out in the open yet there is still plenty of debate going on about who the team should pick. Well at this point my money is on Thomas if he is still on the board when the Bucs are on the clock it is nearly impossible to imagine Jon Gruden not going after Thomas since he could step in and make the line much better from day one., while allowing Gruden to finally open up his entire playbook. Don’t get be wrong it is virtually impossible to imagine Calvin Johnson not being a success at the NFL level. I don't know if there's ever been a physical specimen like Johnson to come out of college. At this stage I think he is better then Randy Moss was when he was drafted in 1998. Johnson has something Moss has never had the ability to go over the middle while also being a possession receiver, so I still consider Johnson a safe pick.
However, one of, if not the biggest toss-up, boom-or-bust (QB notwithstanding) positions in the NFL draft is Defensive Tackle. There's just no forecasting this one (and its so ironic because DE is the safest). If you want a perfect example of what I'm getting at look no further then the 2003 draft. 5 DT's ( if you count Seymour but he came out as a DE and does play the DE/DT role in the Patriots 3-4) were taken in the top-15. Dwayne Robertson – good but not great. Jonathan Sullivan - complete bust, Kevin Williams - pro-bowler. Jimmy Kennedy - huge bust. Or the draft before that when John Henderson turned out great - but Ryan Sims was selected ahead of him, while Wendell Bryant was selected behind him. Or the year before that, when Marcus Stroud was the 13th pick, but Gerard Warren was the 3rd overall pick in the draft by the Browns. Or you can just recall such prospects like Russell Maryland and Dan Wilkinson and Steve Emtman, who played a combined 31 seasons and have a combined 1 pro-bowl between them. So before you go gaga over Louisville defensive tackle Amobi Okoye just because he was great in the college ranks does not mean that he will translate to the pro game and become a force in the middle.
If you have gained anything from this, please remember this. That sometimes it is better to go with the safe pick rather then the sexy pick when it comes to drafting prospects in the NFL.
