Drafting players based on football ability who have fallen on draft boards. | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Drafting players based on football ability who have fallen on draft boards.

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normaniii

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These are some of the players who dropped 2013, either through combine numbers, position value, position strength, size/weight/length issues, injury concerns or just a lack of publicity:-

Bjoern Werner, Star Lotulelei, Keenan Allen, Zach Ertz, Larry Warford, Menelik Watson, Damontre Moore, Arthur Brown, Jarvis Jones, Manti Teo, Eddie Lacy, Geno Smith, Tyrann Mathieu, Matt Barkley, Joseph Randle, Andre Ellington, Cobi Hamilton, Oday Aboushi, Barrett Jones, Reid Fragel, Alex Okafor, Jesse Williams, Khaseem Greene & Jordan Poyer.

When I look at the players who have dropped this year due to similar issues:-

Teddy Bridgewater, CJ Mosley, Louis Nix, Rashede Hageman, Jace Amaro, Carlos Hyde, Marqise Lee, Kelvin Benjamin, Jarvis Landry, Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, Cyrus Kouandijio, Gabe Jackson, Antonio Richardson, Dave Yankey, Travis Swanson, Brandon Thomas, Cyril Richardson, Stephen Tuitt, Daniel McCullers, DeQuan Jones, Antone Exum, LOgan Thomas, Colt Lyerla, Marion Grice, Aaron Colvin & Seantrel Henderson.

When you consider there is a realistic chance to draft:-

1-CJ Mosley/Louis Nix/Marqise Lee
2-Rashede Hageman/Kelvin Benjamin/Austin Sefarian Jenkins, Cyrus Kouandijio, Stephen Tuitt/Carlos Hyde/Jace Amaro
3-Gabe Jackson/DeQuan Jones
4-Antonio Richardson/Daniel McCullers/Jarvis Landry/Cyril Richardson/Travis Swanson
5-Seantrel Henderson
6-Antone Exum/Logan Thomas
7-Brandon Thomas/Aaron Colvin, Colt Lyerla, Marion Grice

IMO this is where GM's like Ozzie Newsome make a living. Notable previous picks who have dropped:-

Matt Elam, Arthur Brown, Courtney Upshaw, Kelechi Osemele, Jimmy Smith, Sergio Kindle, Arthur Jones, Laderius Webb, Ray Rice, Marshall Yanda, Haloti Ngata, Terrell Suggs, Ed Reed, Ray Lewis.

Granted not all panned out and there are more that I have missed out on, but I would love to pick off on the players who drop. For example:-

1-Marqise Lee - I like Mosley, but I removed him due to injury concerns. Lee was once considered a top 10 pick but has dropped due to Watkins, Evans and Cooks impressive combine results. He has been a better player than Odell Beckham but many project Beckham coming off the board first.
2-Cyrus Kouandijio - Again, was once considered the 3rd OT on board but again has dropped due to combine and inury concerns. Considered athletic before combine. Reminds me of Menelik Watson who similarly was considered athletic before combine and dropped to mid 2nd. He played well for Oakland last year and is much older than CK. He was also considered better than DJ Fluker last year who went no.11 overall 2013.
3-Gabe Jackson-Once considered Miami's no.1 overall pick, but again has dropped due to 40 time. Much like Larry Warford last year, in my mind he was never expected to have a good 40, but because of others rising, has fallen down board.
4-Jarvis Landry. I think he will be gone, but I also like Cyril Richardson, but due to 2 previous lineman, I would pluck for the guy once considered in same breath as Anquan Boldin. Again has fallen much like Boldin due to 40 and others rising. I think he would fit perfectly in our system. Tough, good hands, good route runner and strong after catch even though he lacks burst and speed.
5-Seantrel Henderson-Massive guy and athlete for his size, who has character concerns and never fulfilled his potential. In the 5th I would take a chance on him. He could easily be an NFL starter.
6-Antone Exum. Excellent corner who has dropped due to injury. How many 6th rounders contribute day 1? I would redshirt him ready for 2015.
7-Brandon Thomas. As above I would redshirt him, knowing he could one day be a starting OG.

Granted many may be gone by the draft pick selected but if you look at 2013 it is not unrealistic. Just consider this draft at the end of the college season and then it would have been unrealistic.

The Chargers in first 3 rounds last year selected need 1st in DJ Fluker, then BPA in Manti Teo & Keenan Allen, who were both before combine considered top 10. All contributed last year and I feel they are following in the same lines as the Baltimore Ravens. I hope Hickey follows suit.

 
I definitely like and agree for the most part with the premise you mentioned above. However, I would strongly argue that particular system is not for every team. I would venture to bet teams that have taken chances on those types of players and have been successful in that project have exemplary leadership from top(executives) to bottom(players).

Simply put, players like that in my humble opinion are more likely to fail than succeed on a team like the Dolphins. Because, i'm not convinced we have the outstanding leadership in place to critically guide those types of players. Essentially, we need more ready made high character guys on our team.
 
ANUFan said:
I definitely like and agree for the most part with the premise you mentioned above. However, I would strongly argue that particular system is not for every team. I would venture to bet teams that have taken chances on those types of players and have been successful in that project have exemplary leadership from top(executives) to bottom(players).

Simply put, players like that in my humble opinion are more likely to fail than succeed on a team like the Dolphins. Because, i'm not convinced we have the outstanding leadership in place to critically guide those types of players. Essentially, we need more ready made high character guys on our team.
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I do agree 100%, but I wouldn't take a chance on those guys until at least 4th and preferably 5th. For example I like Kelvin Benjamin and Stephen Tuitt, but due to character concerns I personally would pick others before them. In 7th Colt Lyerla was an option but I would rather go for a high character player who dropped due to injury than someone like Lyerla.
 
normaniii said:
I do agree 100%, but I wouldn't take a chance on those guys until at least 4th and preferably 5th. For example I like Kelvin Benjamin and Stephen Tuitt, but due to character concerns I personally would pick others before them. In 7th Colt Lyerla was an option but I would rather go for a high character player who dropped due to injury than someone like Lyerla.
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General ly to have a legitimate shot. You have to start pulling the trigger on guys like that starting in the mid 2nd round
you're rarely getting them starting in the 4th.

We really arent in a position to experiment.
 
First you have to distinguish whether a player is falling or if the media is just catching up to the process. Teo - for example - never should have been considered a 1st RD LB.

Lee is a good example of a very good player who had a down year for a number of legitimate reasons - injuries, QB play, team turmoil. If he looks healthy and you trust that he can stay healthy, that's the kind of value you want.

I love Landry. He's my favorite WR in the class, but after the combine, I didn't hesitate to drop him. In the 4th, you're getting amazing value, and I doubt he'll be there.

Gabe Jackson - for my money - is one of the two best OG's in this draft and should go somewhere between late 1st and early 2nd.

Think about Bowers and Fairley dropping. Anyone wish they would have drafted them in front of TB and Detroit? Have to take it on a case-by-case basis.
 
j-off-her-doll said:
First you have to distinguish whether a player is falling or if the media is just catching up to the process. Teo - for example - never should have been considered a 1st RD LB.

Lee is a good example of a very good player who had a down year for a number of legitimate reasons - injuries, QB play, team turmoil. If he looks healthy and you trust that he can stay healthy, that's the kind of value you want.

I love Landry. He's my favorite WR in the class, but after the combine, I didn't hesitate to drop him. In the 4th, you're getting amazing value, and I doubt he'll be there.

Gabe Jackson - for my money - is one of the two best OG's in this draft and should go somewhere between late 1st and early 2nd.

Think about Bowers and Fairley dropping. Anyone wish they would have drafted them in front of TB and Detroit? Have to take it on a case-by-case basis.
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Again I do agree. Landry, value wise is my favourite player in draft. I would consider him in second but def would pull trigger in 3rd, but we did see Allen fall from top ten to 3rd last year.

Jackson I like in 2nd but love in 3rd.

IMO Fairley did have some character issues and Bowers injury concerns have come to fruition. I would take CK only if he passed his medical that high, otherwise I wouldn't consider him until 4th. Bowers came out injured and his problems were clear.
 
normaniii said:
These are some of the players who dropped 2013, either through combine numbers, position value, position strength, size/weight/length issues, injury concerns or just a lack of publicity:-

Bjoern Werner, Star Lotulelei, Keenan Allen, Zach Ertz, Larry Warford, Menelik Watson, Damontre Moore, Arthur Brown, Jarvis Jones, Manti Teo, Eddie Lacy, Geno Smith, Tyrann Mathieu, Matt Barkley, Joseph Randle, Andre Ellington, Cobi Hamilton, Oday Aboushi, Barrett Jones, Reid Fragel, Alex Okafor, Jesse Williams, Khaseem Greene & Jordan Poyer.

When I look at the players who have dropped this year due to similar issues:-

Teddy Bridgewater, CJ Mosley, Louis Nix, Rashede Hageman, Jace Amaro, Carlos Hyde, Marqise Lee, Kelvin Benjamin, Jarvis Landry, Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, Cyrus Kouandijio, Gabe Jackson, Antonio Richardson, Dave Yankey, Travis Swanson, Brandon Thomas, Cyril Richardson, Stephen Tuitt, Daniel McCullers, DeQuan Jones, Antone Exum, LOgan Thomas, Colt Lyerla, Marion Grice, Aaron Colvin & Seantrel Henderson.

When you consider there is a realistic chance to draft:-

1-CJ Mosley/Louis Nix/Marqise Lee
2-Rashede Hageman/Kelvin Benjamin/Austin Sefarian Jenkins, Cyrus Kouandijio, Stephen Tuitt/Carlos Hyde/Jace Amaro
3-Gabe Jackson/DeQuan Jones
4-Antonio Richardson/Daniel McCullers/Jarvis Landry/Cyril Richardson/Travis Swanson
5-Seantrel Henderson
6-Antone Exum/Logan Thomas
7-Brandon Thomas/Aaron Colvin, Colt Lyerla, Marion Grice

IMO this is where GM's like Ozzie Newsome make a living. Notable previous picks who have dropped:-

Matt Elam, Arthur Brown, Courtney Upshaw, Kelechi Osemele, Jimmy Smith, Sergio Kindle, Arthur Jones, Laderius Webb, Ray Rice, Marshall Yanda, Haloti Ngata, Terrell Suggs, Ed Reed, Ray Lewis.

Granted not all panned out and there are more that I have missed out on, but I would love to pick off on the players who drop. For example:-

1-Marqise Lee - I like Mosley, but I removed him due to injury concerns. Lee was once considered a top 10 pick but has dropped due to Watkins, Evans and Cooks impressive combine results. He has been a better player than Odell Beckham but many project Beckham coming off the board first.
2-Cyrus Kouandijio - Again, was once considered the 3rd OT on board but again has dropped due to combine and inury concerns. Considered athletic before combine. Reminds me of Menelik Watson who similarly was considered athletic before combine and dropped to mid 2nd. He played well for Oakland last year and is much older than CK. He was also considered better than DJ Fluker last year who went no.11 overall 2013.
3-Gabe Jackson-Once considered Miami's no.1 overall pick, but again has dropped due to 40 time. Much like Larry Warford last year, in my mind he was never expected to have a good 40, but because of others rising, has fallen down board.
4-Jarvis Landry. I think he will be gone, but I also like Cyril Richardson, but due to 2 previous lineman, I would pluck for the guy once considered in same breath as Anquan Boldin. Again has fallen much like Boldin due to 40 and others rising. I think he would fit perfectly in our system. Tough, good hands, good route runner and strong after catch even though he lacks burst and speed.
5-Seantrel Henderson-Massive guy and athlete for his size, who has character concerns and never fulfilled his potential. In the 5th I would take a chance on him. He could easily be an NFL starter.
6-Antone Exum. Excellent corner who has dropped due to injury. How many 6th rounders contribute day 1? I would redshirt him ready for 2015.
7-Brandon Thomas. As above I would redshirt him, knowing he could one day be a starting OG.

Granted many may be gone by the draft pick selected but if you look at 2013 it is not unrealistic. Just consider this draft at the end of the college season and then it would have been unrealistic.

The Chargers in first 3 rounds last year selected need 1st in DJ Fluker, then BPA in Manti Teo & Keenan Allen, who were both before combine considered top 10. All contributed last year and I feel they are following in the same lines as the Baltimore Ravens. I hope Hickey follows suit.
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I think it'd be helpful to examine who went above their position, who went pretty much where they were supposed to, and who fell, as well as their success or failure rates per their draft position.
 
You have to look at this draft a little differently as depending on who you look at there could be anywhere from 30-50 players with a draft grade at least a round higher than where they may get drafted. I agree with your concept, but this year is a little different than most with the amount of talent that will be available. I really think there will be several UDFA that will be solid players in the NFL entering their 2nd and 3rd seasons.
 
Weren't Jamar Taylor and Jonathan Martin 2 more example of players whose stock dropped before the draft? I like your thinking but you still need to pick the right ones.
 
roy_miami said:
Weren't Jamar Taylor and Jonathan Martin 2 more example of players whose stock dropped before the draft? I like your thinking but you still need to pick the right ones.
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I'm not saying your going to hit in every one. I still like Taylor. I think he will push for starting role this year. Martin though was a bust. I can't defend that, but nobody foresaw his me first attitude as soon as it looked as though he would be replaced.
 
normaniii said:
I think it states who fell. That's the whole point of the post.
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yeah so they fell, but unless I look up the players individual stats and see how they did as rookies, I really have no reference point to their value. so they fell... what does that tell me? it doesn't tell me if they peformed to expectations or not prior to their eventual draft position.
 
Wildbill3 said:
yeah so they fell, but unless I look up the players individual stats and see how they did as rookies, I really have no reference point to their value. so they fell... what does that tell me? it doesn't tell me if they peformed to expectations or not prior to their eventual draft position.
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Surely you can do something's yourself
 
normaniii said:
Surely you can do something's yourself
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not my thread or homework to do. you're trying to make a point that we should look at falling players as value picks based on falling players that showed value last season. but you're not comparing and contrasting (or providing any further information) other than these guys fell last year, and these guys are falling this year. lets draft them! I think you have a "start" to a good possibly great thread, you just don't provide the final bits of information that would push it over that top.
 
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