VT Dolphan
Pro Bowler
After seeing a lot of mock drafts that have us selecting a QB early in the second round, I decided to take a look at recent draft history to see what the success rate has been for QB's selected during various stages in the draft. It is widely accepted that QB is the most critical position for a team to be successful, and obviously something that Miami has lacked for many years now. Some people want Matt Ryan first overall, others want Brian Brohm, Chad Henne or Joe Flacco in round two, and some people would prefer we just avoid drafting a QB on day one altogether. I have compiled a list QB's drafted from 2000-2005, and assessed each QB class to see just where the value lies. I have left out the last two drafts since obviously there is not enough time to make an accurate assessment. I will break the QB's into three different tiers - 1st Rounders, 2nd-3rd Rounders, and the rest.
2000 Draft Class
Rd.
1 Chad Pennington
3 Giovanni Carmazzi
3 Chris Redman
5 Tee Martin
6 Marc Bulger
6 Spergon Wynn
6 Tom Brady
6 Todd Husak
7 Tim Rattay
7 Jarious Jackson
7 Joe Hamilton
Pennington was the only first rounder in this class and has had a relatively lackluster NFL career, not exactly a bust, but not as good as expected. Carmazzi and Redman were obvious busts in the middle rounds. That Brady guy has been decent for New England, and Bulger has been a Pro-Bowler in STL. The rest of the Day 2 QB's never amounted to anything. The only solid QB's from this class were sixth round picks.
2001 Draft Class
1 Mike Vick
2 Drew Brees
2 Quincy Carter
2 Marques Tuiasosopo
4 Chris Weinke
4 Sage Rosenfels
4 Jesse Palmer
5 Mike McMahon
5 A.J. Feeley
6 Josh Booty
6 Josh Heupel
Four QB's were drafted in the first two rounds. Legal troubles aside, Vick was a pro-bowl QB in ATL, and while you could argue he was a RB playing QB, I'll call him a success. Brees is another Pro-Bowler. Carter was a bust and Tuiasosopo appears to be a career backup. Of the Day 2 picks, only Rosenfels and Feeley ever amounted to anything, and only then it was as career backups. This draft produced very little quality QB's, but the value was clearly at the top.
2002 Draft Class
1 David Carr
1 Joey Harrington
1 Patrick Ramsey
3 Josh McCown
4 David Garrard
4 Rohan Davey
5 Randy Fasani
5 Kurt Kittner
5 Brandon Doman
5 Craig Nall
6 J.T. O'Sullivan
7 Seth Burford
7 Jeff Kelly
7 Ronald Curry
7 Wes Pate
A lot of quantity, but very little quality in this draft. Carr, Harrington and Ramsey were all busts with the teams that drafted them, and are currently backups elsewhere. McCown is on his third team already. Out of the Day 2 prospects, Garrard was the only one to do anything at all, and appears to be an absolute steal. This draft was a crapshoot all around, with busts everywhere.
2003 Draft Class
1 Carson Palmer
1 Byron Leftwich
1 Kyle Boller
1 Rex Grossman
3 Dave Ragone
3 Chris Simms
4 Seneca Wallace
5 Brian St. Pierre
6 Drew Henson
6 Brooks Bollinger
6 Kliff Kingsbury
7 Gibran Hamdan
7 Ken Dorsey
Four first round QB's, only Palmer has lived up to the hype. Leftwich and Boller both flopped, and Grossman has been wildly inconsistent. Ragone was a bust, Simms has been very mediocre when healthy, which is a rarity. Wallace, Dorsey were decent backups at one point, but really no Day 2 success stories here.
2004 Draft Class
1 Eli Manning
1 Phillip Rivers
1 Ben Roethlisberger
1 J.P. Losman
3 Matt Schaub
4 Luke McCown
5 Craig Krenzel
6 Andy Hall
6 Josh Harris
6 Jim Sorgi
6 Jeff Smoker
7 John Navarre
7 Cody Pickett
7 Casey Bramlet
7 Matt Mauck
7 B.J. Symons
7 Bradlee Van Pelt
Another draft with four first rounders. Manning and Big Ben have been key contributors on super bowl winning teams and are two of the best QB's in the game. Rivers has been inconsistent, but average overall. Losman has looked good at times, and lost at others. Schaub has been pretty good for a third round pick. Of the Day 2 guys, only Jim Sorgi has really stuck around, and he will continue to be a backup as long as Peyton Manning has a right arm.
2005 Draft Class
1 Alex Smith
1 Aaron Rodgers
1 Jason Campbell
3 Charlie Frye
3 Andrew Walter
3 David Greene
4 Kyle Orton
4 Stefan LeFors
5 Dan Orlovsky
5 Adrian McPherson
6 Derek Anderson
7 Matt Cassel
7 Ryan Fitzpatrick
While it is still early to make definitive assessments, you have a pretty good idea who is going to make it by now. Smith appears to be a bust in SF, Rodgers will finally get his shot in GB, Campbell has shown promise. None of the three midrounders has done much. Frye had been starting in Cleveland, but has since been replaced by sixth round pick Derek Anderson. Walter has been horrible, Greene never really played. On Day 2, Orton, Orlovsky and Cassel have been steady backups. Anderson appears to be the only stud QB from this class, but one more productive season is needed to confirm that.
In Conclusion
1st Round QB's (16 Total)
4 Good, Pro-Bowl Quality Players (25%)
5 Avg. Starters (31%)
7 Failed Starters/ Backup Quality (44%)
First Round QBs are extremely tough to predict. The top overall player taken was a QB in 5 of the 6 six drafts I analyzed, yet produced only 2 very good starters. How does this relate to us? Matt Ryan is widely regarded as the top QB available, and a likely top ten pick. Some experts feel he is the franchise QB we need, others think he would be a reach at number one overall. I agree with the latter. I don't think he is a sure thing and would prefer we pass. The guaranteed money is too great for such a risky pick.
2nd & 3rd Round QBs (12 Total)
2 Solid Starters (17%)
2 Poor Starters/Good Backups (17%)
8 Busts (66%)
The bust rate goes up significantly, with only Drew Brees and Matt Schaub turning into quality NFL starters. How does this relate to us? Brian Brohm, who many feel is a first round pick, could be available at number 32. A smart, productive, accurate passer with a first round grade falling into our laps...why does this sound familiar? Oh yeah, we passed on Drew Brees in a similar situation. If Brohm is on the board at 32, I think we have to consider him. It will only make our confusing QB situation even more puzzling, but he is clearly a better prospect than Beck was last year and could be a steal. Two guys who have shot up draft boards since the end of the season, Flacco and Henne, seem like prime bust candidates to me. We have so many holes, I would prefer not to reach for one of those two and get value.
4th-7th Round QB's
4 Starter/Good Backups (8%)
9 Poor Starter/Avg. Backup (17%)
39 Busts (75%)
Low risk, low reward. For every Tom Brady and Marc Bulger is a Josh Heupel and Kliff Kingsbury. Very rarely do these players amount to anything more than a serviceable backup. How does this relate to us? Many fans would prefer we avoid QBs on day one altogether and just "try to find the next Tom Brady." Well, that likely won't be happening, but a guy like Eric Ainge, Kevin O'Connell or Dennis Dixon would be a lot less costly than a guy like Flacco or Henne, and would be only slightly less likely to succeed.
Well, there you have it. If you read the whole thing...thank you, that took a lot of time. To condense my feelings on this years draft - pass on Ryan, take Brohm at 32 if he is there, pass on any other day one QB's, take a flier on a late round prospect.
2000 Draft Class
Rd.
1 Chad Pennington
3 Giovanni Carmazzi
3 Chris Redman
5 Tee Martin
6 Marc Bulger
6 Spergon Wynn
6 Tom Brady
6 Todd Husak
7 Tim Rattay
7 Jarious Jackson
7 Joe Hamilton
Pennington was the only first rounder in this class and has had a relatively lackluster NFL career, not exactly a bust, but not as good as expected. Carmazzi and Redman were obvious busts in the middle rounds. That Brady guy has been decent for New England, and Bulger has been a Pro-Bowler in STL. The rest of the Day 2 QB's never amounted to anything. The only solid QB's from this class were sixth round picks.
2001 Draft Class
1 Mike Vick
2 Drew Brees
2 Quincy Carter
2 Marques Tuiasosopo
4 Chris Weinke
4 Sage Rosenfels
4 Jesse Palmer
5 Mike McMahon
5 A.J. Feeley
6 Josh Booty
6 Josh Heupel
Four QB's were drafted in the first two rounds. Legal troubles aside, Vick was a pro-bowl QB in ATL, and while you could argue he was a RB playing QB, I'll call him a success. Brees is another Pro-Bowler. Carter was a bust and Tuiasosopo appears to be a career backup. Of the Day 2 picks, only Rosenfels and Feeley ever amounted to anything, and only then it was as career backups. This draft produced very little quality QB's, but the value was clearly at the top.
2002 Draft Class
1 David Carr
1 Joey Harrington
1 Patrick Ramsey
3 Josh McCown
4 David Garrard
4 Rohan Davey
5 Randy Fasani
5 Kurt Kittner
5 Brandon Doman
5 Craig Nall
6 J.T. O'Sullivan
7 Seth Burford
7 Jeff Kelly
7 Ronald Curry
7 Wes Pate
A lot of quantity, but very little quality in this draft. Carr, Harrington and Ramsey were all busts with the teams that drafted them, and are currently backups elsewhere. McCown is on his third team already. Out of the Day 2 prospects, Garrard was the only one to do anything at all, and appears to be an absolute steal. This draft was a crapshoot all around, with busts everywhere.
2003 Draft Class
1 Carson Palmer
1 Byron Leftwich
1 Kyle Boller
1 Rex Grossman
3 Dave Ragone
3 Chris Simms
4 Seneca Wallace
5 Brian St. Pierre
6 Drew Henson
6 Brooks Bollinger
6 Kliff Kingsbury
7 Gibran Hamdan
7 Ken Dorsey
Four first round QB's, only Palmer has lived up to the hype. Leftwich and Boller both flopped, and Grossman has been wildly inconsistent. Ragone was a bust, Simms has been very mediocre when healthy, which is a rarity. Wallace, Dorsey were decent backups at one point, but really no Day 2 success stories here.
2004 Draft Class
1 Eli Manning
1 Phillip Rivers
1 Ben Roethlisberger
1 J.P. Losman
3 Matt Schaub
4 Luke McCown
5 Craig Krenzel
6 Andy Hall
6 Josh Harris
6 Jim Sorgi
6 Jeff Smoker
7 John Navarre
7 Cody Pickett
7 Casey Bramlet
7 Matt Mauck
7 B.J. Symons
7 Bradlee Van Pelt
Another draft with four first rounders. Manning and Big Ben have been key contributors on super bowl winning teams and are two of the best QB's in the game. Rivers has been inconsistent, but average overall. Losman has looked good at times, and lost at others. Schaub has been pretty good for a third round pick. Of the Day 2 guys, only Jim Sorgi has really stuck around, and he will continue to be a backup as long as Peyton Manning has a right arm.
2005 Draft Class
1 Alex Smith
1 Aaron Rodgers
1 Jason Campbell
3 Charlie Frye
3 Andrew Walter
3 David Greene
4 Kyle Orton
4 Stefan LeFors
5 Dan Orlovsky
5 Adrian McPherson
6 Derek Anderson
7 Matt Cassel
7 Ryan Fitzpatrick
While it is still early to make definitive assessments, you have a pretty good idea who is going to make it by now. Smith appears to be a bust in SF, Rodgers will finally get his shot in GB, Campbell has shown promise. None of the three midrounders has done much. Frye had been starting in Cleveland, but has since been replaced by sixth round pick Derek Anderson. Walter has been horrible, Greene never really played. On Day 2, Orton, Orlovsky and Cassel have been steady backups. Anderson appears to be the only stud QB from this class, but one more productive season is needed to confirm that.
In Conclusion
1st Round QB's (16 Total)
4 Good, Pro-Bowl Quality Players (25%)
5 Avg. Starters (31%)
7 Failed Starters/ Backup Quality (44%)
First Round QBs are extremely tough to predict. The top overall player taken was a QB in 5 of the 6 six drafts I analyzed, yet produced only 2 very good starters. How does this relate to us? Matt Ryan is widely regarded as the top QB available, and a likely top ten pick. Some experts feel he is the franchise QB we need, others think he would be a reach at number one overall. I agree with the latter. I don't think he is a sure thing and would prefer we pass. The guaranteed money is too great for such a risky pick.
2nd & 3rd Round QBs (12 Total)
2 Solid Starters (17%)
2 Poor Starters/Good Backups (17%)
8 Busts (66%)
The bust rate goes up significantly, with only Drew Brees and Matt Schaub turning into quality NFL starters. How does this relate to us? Brian Brohm, who many feel is a first round pick, could be available at number 32. A smart, productive, accurate passer with a first round grade falling into our laps...why does this sound familiar? Oh yeah, we passed on Drew Brees in a similar situation. If Brohm is on the board at 32, I think we have to consider him. It will only make our confusing QB situation even more puzzling, but he is clearly a better prospect than Beck was last year and could be a steal. Two guys who have shot up draft boards since the end of the season, Flacco and Henne, seem like prime bust candidates to me. We have so many holes, I would prefer not to reach for one of those two and get value.
4th-7th Round QB's
4 Starter/Good Backups (8%)
9 Poor Starter/Avg. Backup (17%)
39 Busts (75%)
Low risk, low reward. For every Tom Brady and Marc Bulger is a Josh Heupel and Kliff Kingsbury. Very rarely do these players amount to anything more than a serviceable backup. How does this relate to us? Many fans would prefer we avoid QBs on day one altogether and just "try to find the next Tom Brady." Well, that likely won't be happening, but a guy like Eric Ainge, Kevin O'Connell or Dennis Dixon would be a lot less costly than a guy like Flacco or Henne, and would be only slightly less likely to succeed.
Well, there you have it. If you read the whole thing...thank you, that took a lot of time. To condense my feelings on this years draft - pass on Ryan, take Brohm at 32 if he is there, pass on any other day one QB's, take a flier on a late round prospect.
